Overlooked Stats

[rickh150]

Just looking thru Brewers stats on At Bat app.....

A bunch of stats jumped out at me, specifically ones that haven't been discussed much. Here goes...

Hernan Perez has 2 SB this year. He had 34 last season. What gives?

Aguilar's numbers are pretty good.... 280 avg. 869 OPS., 5 HR in limited ABs. We would be praising him more if Thames wasn't here. He hits third often for a reason.

Six countem Brewers pitchers have saves this year- Felix, Barnes, Knebel, Milone, Torres, and Hughes. It's June 9.

Six pitchers have more than 23 appearances. It's June 9. Wow!

Any others jump out to you?

[JohnBriggs12]

Perez looks like he's put back about 15 pounds hence the steals down and the slugging way up. Plus the entire team is running less.

[Ennder]

The 23 appearances thing isn't a big deal. We are 3 games away from 1/3 of the season. 23 appearances has players on pace for 69 which isn't extreme. If they are over 26 3 games from now it is probably a bit much.

 

 

Jimmy Nelson has a 3.16 FIP and 3.43 xFIP to support his 3.45 ERA. Nelson and Davies look like part of the long term rotation for the Brewers. Hopefully Davies is the backend of it and he figures out how to not stink the first part of the season which he has done back to back years now.

[rickh150]

Perez looks like he's put back about 15 pounds hence the steals down and the slugging way up. Plus the entire team is running less.

 

I didn't realize he weighed that much more this season...

[DuWayne Steurer]

Im ok with Perez slugging more and stealing less. The XBH's have a lot more value than the steals.

[MrTPlush]

NL Central

W L PCT GB L10 STRK

MIL 33 29 .532 - 6-4 W1

CHC 30 31 .492 2.5 5-5 L4

CIN 29 31 .483 3.0 5-5 L1

STL 28 32 .467 4.0 3-7 W2

PIT 27 35 .435 6.0 3-7 W1

[MadScientist]

NL Central

W L PCT GB L10 STRK

MIL 33 29 .532 - 6-4 W1

CHC 30 31 .492 2.5 5-5 L4

CIN 29 31 .483 3.0 5-5 L1

STL 28 32 .467 4.0 3-7 W2

PIT 27 35 .435 6.0 3-7 W1

 

I don't think that stat is being overlooked. The Brewers are doing way better than most of us expected, and the Cubs and Cards are doing way worse. Hard to say which is more surprising.

 

The thing is, when you watch the Brewers, it's not like they are miraculously in first, it's more like they could be up by 8-10 games.

[rickh150]

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

Fangraphs has our odds of making the playoffs at 10%.... Cubs 83%....

[rickh150]

Interesting ones that stand out

Mariners 23% to make playoffs Angels 5% to make playoffs. They are tied in 2nd place. I know Trout is out, but is Seattle that much better?

Mets at 12% (Brew at 10%). Cards at 32%

Rockies at 82%. Dodgers at 99% (really?). Arizona 63%.... these 3 are going to beat up on each other. It will be tough to have all of these teams win 90 plus games.

 

At these odds, I'll put my $2 on the Angels to make the playoffs and the Dodgers to not.

[Austin Tatious]

Orlando Arcia is up to .260. I don't have exact numbers but I'd imagine he's very strong over the past month since he was .220 ish well into the season.

 

Santana has really put up impressive numbers.

 

Shaw has been outstanding.

 

Pina looks very solid to me as a two-way catcher. He had nice numbers in the minors too. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe he was considered a good prospect a few years ago. It may be coming to fruition.

 

Perez is a gamer and always has been. The one thing we can always nitpick is the low BB rate. It hurts his OBP but it's just not his approach. He's an ultra competitive kid which I love.

 

I don't know if these guys can keep it up, but I refer to these guys as a huge part of our success. Arcia at his age, and room to fill out as he gets older, is doing as good if not better than any of us could think. The others, well we have minor leaguers who we are excited about, but interestingly, these guys are producing at the levels we would hope our minor leaguers would produce at some day, and we are getting that production now, which is great.

[MrTPlush]

I'd say Orlando Arcia is overlooked lately if it was more than his average. Total empty average, no power.

[adambr2]

Orlando Arcia is up to .260. I don't have exact numbers but I'd imagine he's very strong over the past month since he was .220 ish well into the season.

 

Santana has really put up impressive numbers.

 

Shaw has been outstanding.

 

Pina looks very solid to me as a two-way catcher. He had nice numbers in the minors too. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe he was considered a good prospect a few years ago. It may be coming to fruition.

 

Perez is a gamer and always has been. The one thing we can always nitpick is the low BB rate. It hurts his OBP but it's just not his approach. He's an ultra competitive kid which I love.

 

I don't know if these guys can keep it up, but I refer to these guys as a huge part of our success. Arcia at his age, and room to fill out as he gets older, is doing as good if not better than any of us could think. The others, well we have minor leaguers who we are excited about, but interestingly, these guys are producing at the levels we would hope our minor leaguers would produce at some day, and we are getting that production now, which is great.

 

Perez has grown on me a lot. I've never liked low OBP guys and I don't think he'll ever be more than. 300 or so there, but I've started to more appreciate the benefits he can have beyond that. I think he can be a 3 WAR or so supersub who can give serviceable to good defense at any position and that's a very valuable player.

 

The only ones I would disagree with are those who want to find a permanent position for Perez -- I think that would deprive him of a lot of his value. Then he's just an ok everyday player who can't get on base much. The supersub aspect is a lot of his value.

[brewerfan82]

Orlando Arcia is up to .260. I don't have exact numbers but I'd imagine he's very strong over the past month since he was .220 ish well into the season.

I'd say Orlando Arcia is overlooked lately if it was more than his average. Total empty average, no power.

Correct on both accounts, but with his defense, I'll take the .347 BA he's had the past 3 weeks even if it's empty.

 

Since May 18th:

.347/.367/.400/.767 in 75 ABs

Has at least one hit in 17 of his 18 starts in that span, but only four doubles accounting for his extra base hits and has only drawn two walks

[MrTPlush]

Orlando Arcia is up to .260. I don't have exact numbers but I'd imagine he's very strong over the past month since he was .220 ish well into the season.

I'd say Orlando Arcia is overlooked lately if it was more than his average. Total empty average, no power.

Correct on both accounts, but with his defense, I'll take the .347 BA he's had the past 3 weeks even if it's empty.

 

Since May 18th:

.347/.367/.400/.767 in 75 ABs

Has at least one hit in 17 of his 18 starts in that span, but only four doubles accounting for his extra base hits and has only drawn two walks

 

Which is great if you really think he can hit for that high of an average consistently. However I am not so sure that is realistic. With his lack of power/XBHs he would need to hit over .300 to be a decent hitter. If not he really isn't that valuable or irreplaceable.

 

My main concern is how easy he is to pitch to and his lack of power or plate discipline makes him easy pickings for opposing pitchers. He can't hit anything inside or up in the zone. While he is preached for going opposite field that same compliment is an insult. The reality of it is he can't pull it to save his life. He hits .200 to the pull side and approx. .375 to center-oppo. Pitchers constantly get it in on his hands or throw off-speed stuff for week pull side grounders.

[Oxy]

 

Which is great if you really think he can hit for that high of an average consistently. However I am not so sure that is realistic. With his lack of power/XBHs he would need to hit over .300 to be a decent hitter. If not he really isn't that valuable or irreplaceable.

 

My main concern is how easy he is to pitch to and his lack of power or plate discipline makes him easy pickings for opposing pitchers. He can't hit anything inside or up in the zone. While he is preached for going opposite field that same compliment is an insult. The reality of it is he can't pull it to save his life. He hits .200 to the pull side and approx. .375 to center-oppo. Pitchers constantly get it in on his hands or throw off-speed stuff for week pull side grounders.

 

Yep. He's young and skinny, so hopefully he can put on a few pounds by the time he is 25 and he can get around on the inside pitches better. He doesn't barrel up a lot of balls and he doesn't quite have enough speed to be able to dink and dunk his way to a .275+ avg. As long as the rest of our order produces he is tolerable, but he will need to improve to be a benefit to the lineup. Again, he is young, so he certainly CAN improve.

[Humans Need Water]

Arcia is 22yrs old and in his first full season. He's fully capable of putting up 280/335/750 (or better OBP/OPS) moving forward. He's currently 260/300/670, which is better than Andrelton Simmons age 23 and 24 seasons. Simmons is a better defender but Arcia holds his own in that department just fine. Arcia is very talented and it's blatantly obvious - just like it was with Santana. The issue is fans get too emotional and reactionary and stuck in the "what have you done for me lately" mold instead of taking a step back and letting these young players develop a bit (ie after 3wks there's a Brinson for Santana thread). Arcia has always been a middle/oppo hitter. As he develops and physically matures he's going to become a better pull hitter than he is right now. He'll be plenty capable of hitting 30 doubles, 5 triples, 15HR. Right now he's on pace for 21 doubles, 3 triples, 10HR. He'll be just fine moving forward but it might take through 2018 to get there, at which point he'll be 24 heading into that next season. He just needs to continue to improve as he has been since the start of this season.

 

To the thread title - the overlooked stats are exit velocity, medium/hard contact rate, LD/GB/FB rate, plate discipline (in-zone/out-zone contact rate, overall contact rate), etc. These tell a much greater story than simply stating WAR.

[Austin Tatious]

I am not going to argue against the empty average thing, at all. I agree with that. I like OPS as a measure. Arcia is under .700 and you'd surely like to see more. But, I also want to be realistic. You have to start somewhere. He's thin and I think will get stronger over the next couple of years. He's got pretty good quickness in his swing. He looks like he's about 160-165 lbs pounds. With some more muscle added, and with that quick swing, I think you will see some gap power and some singles will transform into doubles and triples. Without using a calculator, he's probably on pace for .260, 9-10 hr, 50-55 RBI, .680 OPS. As a baseline, I consider that to be a starting point. I'm bullish on him. I like his defense and how he carries himself.

[homer]

According to Fangraphs, Arcia's got the third highest defensive WAR among all shortstops in baseball. His D is elite. If he can just be adequate on offense he will have tremendous value. He's only 22. Give him a few years and you'll probably have an outstanding player at a valuable position.

[MrTPlush]

And I will mention I am not hating on Arcia. I am just pointing out while his average might be shiny in a small sample size it really doesn't mean a whole lot. He has time to improve and become a solid player, but the offensive game definitely needs to improve in multiple areas. At worst you have something like Alcides Escobar and at best something approaching Simmons. Probably ends up in between those two.

[Ennder]

He was brought up a full season too early and unfortunately that means by the time Arcia is good we will probably be trading him.

[Greenleaf1]

Did not realize that Perez had fallen off a cliff since April when it came to taking walks. That's concerning, I had hopes after April that he had really improved in K:BB, but seems like he's reverted back to the way he was last year.

 

His WAR of 1.6 kinda speaks for itself though doesn't it? He's providing tremendous value to this team, and I never expected him to suddenly be an actual #3 hitter. On a competing Brewers team, I would hope he'd be a well above average #6/#7 guy.

 

Arcia's offense has really started coming around, he's shown a lot of improvement apart from the low amount of XBH, but his OBP has improved each month this season, he's as-advertised-gold-glove-calibre at SS, and he's still very young. I'm hoping he can keep improving this summer and have a real breakout year next year at the plate, but if he was at .750 OPS for his career in Milwaukee I'd consider that to be a success. We have more than enough leadoff-type guys coming up through the minors that Arcia will probably always be our #8 anyways.

[FVBrewerFan]

Under .500 at home. And they're in 1st place.

[rickh150]

In his last start, Anderson got his first Sacrifice Bunt in about a year.

[Greenleaf1]

I was looking at Travis Shaw on baseball-reference.com this morning and was kinda taken aback when I noticed he's 7-for-7 in stolen base opportunities this season.

 

Then, coincidentally, I came across this tidbit from http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/in-celebration-of-the-brewers-and-twins/

 

Speaking of things that don’t stick out right away, did you know Travis Shaw already has seven stolen bases? Last season, he stole five bases in six tries, but the Red Sox aren’t the running-est team out there, and over the course of 145 games, you don’t notice five stolen bases. But for a third baseman to have seven steals through 67 games? That’s notable. Only Eduardo Nunez has more steals as a third baseman this season, but Shaw is the only player to have at least five steals without being caught while playing third this season. In addition, only seven third baseman got to double digits in steals last season, and Shaw is well on his way to getting to that club this season. And that’s, like, the fifth-most interesting thing about Shaw’s season.

[tmwiese55]

Quick stat question that popped into my head after reading that about Shaw, if it's a double steal does the guy going from 1 to 2nd also get credit for it? I'm pretty sure he does but though someone would know for sure. And if so, I'd be curious if a few of Shaw's were that fashion.