History of #9 Overall Draft Picks

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Brewers pick #9 overall in the MLB Draft this coming Monday, June 12th.

 

Here's a quick history of #9 overall picks for the past 30 years...

 

2016: RHP Matt Manning, Tigers, High School

2015: OF Ian Happ, Cubs, College

2014: RHP Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays, College

2013: OF Austin Meadows, Pirates, High School

2012: LHP Andrew Heaney, Marlins, College

2011: 3B/SS Javier Baez, Cubs, High School

2010: RHP Karsten Whitsen, Padres, High School

2009: RHP Jacob Turner, Tigers, High School

2008: RHP Aaron Crow, Nationals, College

2007: RHP Jarrod Parker, DBacks, High School

2006: 3B Bill Rowell, Orioles, High School

2005: RHP Michael Pelfrey, Mets, College

2004: SS Chris Nelson, Rockies, High School

2003: LHP John Danks, Rangers, High School

2002: LHP Jeff Francis, Rockies, College

2001: RHP Colt Griffin, Royals, High School

2000: RHP Mark Phillips, Padres, High School

1999: LHP Barry Zito, A's, College

1998: 3B Sean Burroughs, Padres, High School

1997: 3B Michael Cuddyer, Twins, High School

1996: OF Mark Kotsay, Marlins, College

1995: OF Geoff Jenkins, Brewers, College (USC)

1994: RHP CJ Nitkowski, Reds, College

1993: SS Mark Brunson, Tigers, High School

1992: OF Preston Wilson, Mets, High School

1991: OF Mark Smith, Orioles, College

1990: RHP Ron Walden, Dodgers, High School

1989: LHP Kyle Abbott, Angels, College

1988: SS Ty Griffin, Cubs, College

1987: RHP Kevin Appier, Royals, College

 

Man this list was littered with complete busts! The Brewers last picked #9 overall 22 years ago and selected OF Geoff Jenkins out of USC, which is one of the better picks in the last 30 years. The A's popped Barry Zito #9 overall in 1999, one pick before the Brewers selected Ben Sheets.

 

The Pitchers besides Zito were almost all busts or fringe Major Leaguers at best.

 

Doesn't exactly instill any confidence that the Brewers are going to land their future ACE with this pick.

[CheezWizHed]

Time to be the exception for the rule.

[And That]

The Pitchers besides Zito were almost all busts or fringe Major Leaguers at best.

I know you said almost, but Kevin Appier is a big almost. 55 career bWAR.

 

Ron Darling, John Danks, Mark Kotsay, and Geoff Jenkins all had a >20 career bWAR coming out of the 9 spot.

 

For the most part, I don't know that looking back at who was picked at #9 in the past is all that instructive. So much of who was picked there has to do with individual team scouting strengths/weaknesses, predraft deals, etc. The success rate of #9 selections is more random chance than any reflection of actual talent level available there. Plenty of good players were taken after 9, which means any number of them could have been taken at 9.

 

For example there have been 23 players selected at 9 overall who have had a positive career bWAR. At 8th overall that drops to 19 players. At 5th overall, four spots higher, it's 22 players.

 

At 10th overall, it's 28 players, including Mark McGwire, Robin Ventura, Ted Simmons, Tim Wallach, and Madison Bumgarner.

[patrickgpe]

recently it has been ok though, Manning , Baez and Happ.

[DHonks]

Lots of contributors to stars on that list

[Madhawk23]

Yeah, I was actually pretty impressed with that list overall when I scanned through it. Considering what a crap shoot the MLB draft is, I'd say there is a pretty decent track record of successful #9 picks there.

[brewerfan82]

Ran into this looking for draft previews:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/2017-mlb-draft-preview.shtml

 

It includes the top 5 players by WAR for each pick as well as the total WAR for all players combined taken for each pick. Kind of interesting and relevant to this thread. Actually a pretty good representation of Brewer picks for the top players taken all time in the top 9 picks (Yount, Molitor, Porter, Braun, Sheffield, Fielder, Jenkins).

[CheezWizHed]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/2017-mlb-draft-preview.shtml

 

Interesting. The only top 10 draft slot that is worse than drafting 9th is drafting 8th.

 

Also, you have equal chance in drafting 20th as 5th. And 19th ain't no slouch either.

 

Forget about tanking. We should aim for 20th this year!

[CheezWizHed]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/2017-mlb-draft-preview.shtml

 

Interesting. The only top 10 draft slot that is worse than drafting 9th is drafting 8th.

 

Also, you have equal chance in drafting 20th as 5th. And 19th ain't no slouch either.

 

Forget about tanking. We should aim for 20th this year!

[OnTheBlack]

recently it has been ok though, Manning , Baez and Happ.

 

 

But isn't that what it always looks like just a few years after the draft? You see guys who make it to the big leagues or who put up good numbers in the minors and look promising all the time.

 

Baez has under 6 career WAR and I could see his career going a few different ways. A down year and he could be moved and then kinda bounce around, Happ I like a lot, but then Manning...a prep arm one year in? It's always a huge risk with those guys.