Link Report for Wednesday 6/7

[And That]

I don't think they are too similar. Nelson's a lot bigger, and gets considerably more sink on his fastball. When he's on, he gets groundball after groundball.

 

Burnes is very physical and is more about fastball location and inducing weak contact, whether in the air or on the ground. Burnes has three legit pitches now, while Nelson really only had two in the minors. I really do think Burnes ends up with four pitches he can go to.

[CheezWizHed]

inducing weak contact

 

That has been the book on Burnes since he was drafted, but for his MiLB career, he is over 9K/9IP, which is an impressive rate for an SP. I can see where an advanced college pitcher might overwhelm A ball, but he is very close to that at A+ and AA this year too (8.4/9IP at A+ and 11Ks in 10.2 AA innings).

 

So, despite the "good, not great stuff" scouting reports, he gets a high about of Ks. Do you think there is some deception in delivery or just an intelligent pitching approach with 4 pitches making it touch to tee off on any one of them?

 

Either way, the high K rate is one of the more encouraging things about Burnes that makes me think he could reach a higher SP potential at the MLB level.

[And That]

Do you think there is some deception in delivery or just an intelligent pitching approach with 4 pitches making it touch to tee off on any one of them?

 

The latter. There might be some deception, but there's nothing too obvious that sticks out to me. Burnes does have a very fast arm, so there might less time than usual for a batter to pick the pitch up.

 

Burnes actually has a below average swinging strike %, or at least he did as of a few weeks ago. I think for him it's more about pitch selection, sequencing, keeping opposing hitters off balance, etc., than anything mechanical that screws with hitters too much. He has, quite subjectively from my observation, a very high "lunge rate" - opposing batters often dive at his pitches with their swings.

 

Which is not to say he doesn't have swing and miss stuff. He made highly regarded Braves prospect Ronald Acuna look silly on swings on both a slider and a curve in Acuna's first at bat last night.

[MrTPlush]

Corbin Burnes seems like a really good #3 starter. You could label him a #2 ceiling guy, but it would take amazing control to put up those kind of stats over the long run of a season.

[CheezWizHed]

I kind of get a Gallardo vibe from him myself. Possibly peaking at a #1 (i.e. a top 32 SP in MLB), but most of his career in the #2/3 level.

[Mass Haas]

 

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AUDIO via the Rattler Radio Soundcloud: "It's an All-Star Edition of the Papa John's Pizza Postgame Podcast. Chris Mehring & Kyle Lobner discuss the loss to Quad Cities but mainly talk about and with the Timber Rattlers 2017 Midwest League All-Stars: Monte Harrison, Mario Feliciano, and Braden Webb.