Possible Deadline Deals

[djd1228]

Hey guys, longtime lurker here but thought i'd start the discussion of what we're looking at for the deadline. Assuming guys like Guerra and Garza continue to have reasonable success and stay healthy, I think this is our last big chance to get an influx of talent into our system and complete the rebuild so we can contend 2018 and on.

 

Looking through our 25 man, I think our biggest trade chips are Domingo Santana, Junior Guerra and Keon Broxton, but you could also argue someone like Travis Shaw or Matt Garza could be flipped as well.

 

I think we hang onto the rest of the pitchers like Nelson, Anderson, Davies, and everyone in the bullpen unless we have a situation like last year where we could possibly flip Burnes or Knebel for big returns. Braun at this point in my opinion has negative value and we'll hang onto him for the rest of his contract or possibly look for a salary dump in the next couple of years.

 

With that said, we have a lot of possible minor league guys (OF) we could trade if the price is right.

 

Some possibilities looking at how the standings currently lineup:

 

Twins: They're trotting out Rosario on a regular basis who has negative offensive and defensive value this year and could really use a #5/6 type guy in the order. Also their #5 starter Mejia is sporting decent numbers but is due for a big regression with his +5 FIP and high walk rate could use some time in the bullpen. Without guys in their system to really fill those holes they could be looking for a possible trade.

 

Proposal: Domingo Santana and Junior Guerra in exchange for Steven Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Travis Blankenhorn (3B) and a lottery type A baller.

 

Domingo is a decent league average OFer so far this year. IMO he's nothing special since his D value will always be negative in left or right field. His wRC+ of 120 is promising, but his defense will always make him average. Give me Brett Phillips in right who is very capable of being above average offensively AND defensively in the future.

 

Guerra is an interesting case but is the exact type of guy we need to flip when the timing is right. If he's healthy posting the numbers he is, he needs to bring us value back. His career xFIP is 4.29 and i dont think will make a huge difference for us in our competing years and is an injury risk.

 

This gives us two pitchers who profile as possible TOR guys with risks associated and another infield prospect who is admittedly struggling this year in A ball but could blossom into a quality player.

 

Cleveland: A team under performing as opposed to last year but definitely still a contender. Zimmer and Brantley are their only 2 legit of'rs and could use some pop in the middle of their lineup similar to the Twins.

 

Proposal: Domingo Santana and Corey Ray for Tristian McKenzie.

 

Getting McKenzie would give us that legit TOR prospect that we sorely need. Trade our OF depth and high upside OF prospect for McKenzie who's at the same level as Ray.

 

Overall, we need to fill this system with high upside pitching and trading our influx of OF prospects is the way we need to do it.

[Oxy]

I like both of those deals.

[MrTPlush]

The first deal really depends on ones evaluation of those two pitchers. If you are really bullish on them it might be an acceptable deal...personally I wouldn't do that trade. Guerra has a lot of value if he pitches well until the deadline and an .850 OPS hitter has a lot of value too. I agree it may make sense to trade a more short term Guerra for something long term, but that may not be the deal to get it done.

 

The second deal is iffy. The only reason I would do it is because I really think Tristan can be a TOR guy. I fear that he may not be very durable though which concerns me. You have to remember Domingo Santana even if not special could still be a 3 WAR player. That is a lot of surplus value and in my opinion too much packaged with Corey Ray.

 

Either deal you would have to trust your scouts to evaluate the pitchers adequately. Both are plausible none the less. Personally I would deal them separately instead of trying so hard to find one good pitcher.

[MadThinker88]

.....

 

Cleveland: A team under performing as opposed to last year but definitely still a contender. Zimmer and Brantley are their only 2 legit of'rs and could use some pop in the middle of their lineup similar to the Twins.

 

Proposal: Domingo Santana and Corey Ray for Tristian McKenzie.

 

Getting McKenzie would give us that legit TOR prospect that we sorely need. Trade our OF depth and high upside OF prospect for McKenzie who's at the same level as Ray. .....

 

First off: you need a lot more than Santana & Ray to get McKenzie.. It would probably be cheaper to get Salazar and that proposed package would not get it done for Salazar. Now I can understand the interest in McKenzie (a top 100 prospect already and on the rise into top 50 per some outlets) but if Cleveland was unwilling to discuss him last season in deals/ proposals for Andrew Miller & Lucroy, why would they consider moving him this season??

[brewcrewdue80]

Lol HaHa at proposal 1. Junior Guerra alone I wouldnt take that deal. What improvements does that trade give Milw?

 

The 2nd deal is too odd. 2OFs for a SP prospect.

 

 

To this point there arent any deadline deals to feel safe making up. Garza is about it. Guerra I dont know, til Stearns comes forward with a list of guys he's entertaining offers for the deadline. The longer we sit and hang around within the division I think deadline deals are really minor and the big deals happen after this season

[MrTPlush]

Maybe you don't like his proposal, but it is hardly humorous. He is trading a OFer he believes can be easily replaced internally and a starter who is old, lacks a track record, and an injury concern. He is then getting a pair of pitchers that many believe have TOR potential. I think he is selling both of them short, but who knows.

[brewcrewdue80]

So I could offer the Pirates Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan, and Gilbert Lara for Gregory Polanco and Jameson Taillon by that measure.

[MrTPlush]

Marcos Diplan is a likely reliever and I have never heard one person think Freddy Peralta has a ceiling more more than a No.3. Gilbert Lara....is a flaming pile of garbage. That isn't even close to what the Twins proposed package was. Also I am in no GMs office, but I am pretty sure Taillon is [sarcasm]100x[/sarcasm] more valuable than Guerra. Junior Guerra is much older and that limits how much value all that control has. I can be pretty confident Taillon will be really good the next 5 years....Guerra not so much.

[brewcrewdue80]

And when did Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero ever receive TOR potential? Travis Blankenetc become a better prospect than Lara? When you look at stats everything on the Brewers offer is as good/better than my offer to Pittsburgh.

Your going strictly by age in your Taillon 100x better than Guerra. But Taillon has been a walking wounded throughout his Professional career. Guerra has a longer track record of better performance with as much if notmore team control.

[adambr2]

Blankenhorn and Lara are worth pretty much the same at this point. Both low percentage lottery tickets with little odds of eventually paying off.

[Austin Tatious]

One guy who I wouldn't trade anytime soon is Travis Shaw. I believe he is only 26. I doubt he keeps up his current pace but .296 10 and 40 is tremendous. Even if he cools off, he should still be solid.

 

As much as we like Erceg or Gatewood, our hope is eithrr could be doing what Shaw is already doing. Now in 2-3 years, maybe we have a good problem to have with multiple options, or perhaps Shaw declines and this year is illusory.

 

Regarding Tristan McKenzie, we need to draft our own version of that profile. Multiples. The Indian brass should be sent to a mental asylum if they gave him up.

[MrTPlush]

And when did Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero ever receive TOR potential? Travis Blankenetc become a better prospect than Lara? When you look at stats everything on the Brewers offer is as good/better than my offer to Pittsburgh.

Your going strictly by age in your Taillon 100x better than Guerra. But Taillon has been a walking wounded throughout his Professional career. Guerra has a longer track record of better performance with as much if notmore team control.

 

I mean yah age is important. You are going to tell me you are confident Guerra keeps this up from 32-37 or whatever? Heck no. Taillon on the other hand is a pretty safe bet to not decline in the next 5 years. If anything I would expect improvement.

 

Gilbert Lara is hitting .150 with an OPS of .421. It has been years and the guy still doesn't know how to play baseball. Blankenhorn on the other hand is hitting .230 with an OPS of .700. You can't possibly think those players have similar value. Blankenhorn is a true lottery ticket. Lara is a warm body who's most valuable attribute is the fact we wasted $3mil on him and we haven't dumped him yet.

 

Regarding the pitchers I have seen both as #3 types with the potential to be more. Not Kershaws, but #2 types.

 

Once again would I do that deal? No.

[adambr2]

And when did Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero ever receive TOR potential? Travis Blankenetc become a better prospect than Lara? When you look at stats everything on the Brewers offer is as good/better than my offer to Pittsburgh.

Your going strictly by age in your Taillon 100x better than Guerra. But Taillon has been a walking wounded throughout his Professional career. Guerra has a longer track record of better performance with as much if notmore team control.

 

I mean yah age is important. You are going to tell me you are confident Guerra keeps this up from 32-37 or whatever? Heck no. Taillon on the other hand is a pretty safe bet to not decline in the next 5 years. If anything I would expect improvement.

 

Gilbert Lara is hitting .150 with an OPS of .421. It has been years and the guy still doesn't know how to play baseball. Blankenhorn on the other hand is hitting .230 with an OPS of .700. You can't possibly think those players have similar value. Blankenhorn is a true lottery ticket. Lara is a warm body who's most valuable attribute is the fact we wasted $3mil on him and we haven't dumped him yet.

 

Regarding the pitchers I have seen both as #3 types with the potential to be more. Not Kershaws, but #2 types.

 

Once again would I do that deal? No.

 

I agree with most of what you said but I think you're being a little too hard on Lara, and I myself am no fan of Lara. It's hard to know what to ever expect from a teenager and it's hard to say that a 19 year old kid is just never going to know how to play baseball.

Has he been horrible, yes. Is he ready for the level he's been playing at, no. But he would not be the first prospect with physical tools to look like he had no clue as a teenager in the lower levels and then just have things suddenly start clicking for him. One of those is a top 100 prospect in our own system, Isan Diaz.

 

What are the odds Lara ever becomes a productive MLB player, not good at all. But that's why they call 'em lottery tickets.

[ZBTMP]

 

First off: you need a lot more than Santana & Ray to get McKenzie.. It would probably be cheaper to get Salazar and that proposed package would not get it done for Salazar. Now I can understand the interest in McKenzie (a top 100 prospect already and on the rise into top 50 per some outlets) but if Cleveland was unwilling to discuss him last season in deals/ proposals for Andrew Miller & Lucroy, why would they consider moving him this season??

 

You may not be wrong as teams have their own internal evaluations of prospects and tend to really like their own (as thats why they have them). However, is there any independent source that has ever rated Mckenzie ahead of just Ray alone as a prospect? MLB.com, Baseball America, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN all have Ray higher. I don't think a slow return from knee surgery has hurt Ray's prospect evaluations as much as with biox score followers.

[Boomer5]

Santana probably has more value to us than on the trade market. He could be a solid 3 WAR type like someone said and we need guys like that at his cost.

 

Junior absolutely should be traded. He is too old to help us when we will be good and he is a hot commodity in what will always be a sellers market for SP.

 

I love the idea of trading Ray now. He is currently a top 40 prospect so trading him now before that falls is smart. I'm not seeing an impact player there and we hardly need another decent but not elite OFer.

[JosephC]

I think the Twin's deal is pretty close to being fair value but the Indian's deal is too lop-sided in the Indian's favor.

 

IMO Santana likely maxes out at about a 2 WAR player. The .850 OPS is great but he's terrible in the field and that will always drag his value down some. Currently Baseball Reference has him at 0.8 WAR and Fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR so average that and multiply by 3 to project it over a full season and the result is 2 WAR. He is still only 24 so there is probably a better chance that he goes up rather than down, but best guess is that he floats around the 2 WAR mark over the next four seasons.

 

I don't see either of the pitchers named in the Twin's trade at top of the rotation type pitchers. Gonsalves has a high floor and that's where his value lies, he's a real good bet to stick in an MLB rotation but I'm guessing his max is a #3 but more than likely a #4 or #5. Romero is 22 years old and it sounds like all his secondary pitches are still pretty fringy. He has more upside than Gonsalves but has a much lower floor and could project as anything from a #2/#3 starter to a 7th inning reliever (assuming he sticks on an MLB roster).

 

I love McKenzie and would consider a straight-up trade for Ray. But I would only do so because of the Brewer's glut of outfield talent the franchise's historical starting pitching problems (which admittedly should play a ZERO factor in decisions made in the here and now). No way would I also include a cheap, performing player like Santana who is controlled for another 4 1/2 years. Fans have gotten too down on Ray's slow start this season. He slashed .290/.368/.430/.798 in May and is off to a huge start in June. The .798 OPS was held down by a lack of home runs, but now he's hit 3 home runs in the last 13 games so the pop is coming around. There is still an excellent chance Ray is an .800+ OPS player when he hits the majors and that plays up because he will likely be a plus outfielder and a plus-plus runner on the bases. As ZBTMP pointed out, pretty much all the evaluators have Ray ranked ahead of McKenzie. Pretty easy to see Ray becoming a Adam Eaton or Starling Marte type of performer in the majors, and those guys are pretty solid 4 WAR type of performers.

[djd1228]

Just to be clear, I didn't make this thread to pick apart my proposals, more so to get the discussion going of what possible moves we could make at the deadline. These are just teams that could legitimately need to make a move at the deadline for players that we have a surplus of.

[MadThinker88]

 

First off: you need a lot more than Santana & Ray to get McKenzie.. It would probably be cheaper to get Salazar and that proposed package would not get it done for Salazar. Now I can understand the interest in McKenzie (a top 100 prospect already and on the rise into top 50 per some outlets) but if Cleveland was unwilling to discuss him last season in deals/ proposals for Andrew Miller & Lucroy, why would they consider moving him this season??

 

You may not be wrong as teams have their own internal evaluations of prospects and tend to really like their own (as thats why they have them). However, is there any independent source that has ever rated Mckenzie ahead of just Ray alone as a prospect? MLB.com, Baseball America, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN all have Ray higher. I don't think a slow return from knee surgery has hurt Ray's prospect evaluations as much as with box score followers.

 

Each of those sources listed had it before the season started. Come the mid-season update (with graduations already this year and the completed draft), we will see many changes.

 

Here's a couple of Indians-related responses from today's Fangraphs' Q&A (5/30/17).

fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-530

12:26

Rob M : Where does Triston McKenzie appear on Top 100 lists next spring?

 

12:26

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably in the 30s.

 

From Milb.com

w.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-mays-prospect-numbers-of-note/c-233351998/t-185364810

By Sam Dykstra / MiLB.com | May 31, 2017 12:45 PM ET

 

Around the end of each month of the Minor League season, Toolshed will explore the most eye-popping statistics from the previous month. This edition explores MiLB leaders in various categories from May 1-30.

.117, Triston McKenzie, Class A Advanced Lynchburg, average-against: Carolina League batters are finding it incredibly difficult to hit the Indians' No. 3 prospect, who allowed only 12 hits while striking out 43 over 31 1/3 innings in May. Their best method to reach base has been the free pass; McKenzie allowed more walks (14) this month than hits. As soon as the 19-year-old right-hander can pitch more in the zone, the hits could increase, but he should be an even more dominant hurler overall.

[MadThinker88]

I think the Twin's deal is pretty close to being fair value but the Indian's deal is too lop-sided in the Indian's favor.

 

IMO Santana likely maxes out at about a 2 WAR player. The .850 OPS is great but he's terrible in the field and that will always drag his value down some. Currently Baseball Reference has him at 0.8 WAR and Fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR so average that and multiply by 3 to project it over a full season and the result is 2 WAR. He is still only 24 so there is probably a better chance that he goes up rather than down, but best guess is that he floats around the 2 WAR mark over the next four seasons.

.....

I love McKenzie and would consider a straight-up trade for Ray. But I would only do so because of the Brewer's glut of outfield talent the franchise's historical starting pitching problems (which admittedly should play a ZERO factor in decisions made in the here and now). No way would I also include a cheap, performing player like Santana who is controlled for another 4 1/2 years. Fans have gotten too down on Ray's slow start this season. He slashed .290/.368/.430/.798 in May and is off to a huge start in June. The .798 OPS was held down by a lack of home runs, but now he's hit 3 home runs in the last 13 games so the pop is coming around. There is still an excellent chance Ray is an .800+ OPS player when he hits the majors and that plays up because he will likely be a plus outfielder and a plus-plus runner on the bases. As ZBTMP pointed out, pretty much all the evaluators have Ray ranked ahead of McKenzie. Pretty easy to see Ray becoming a Adam Eaton or Starling Marte type of performer in the majors, and those guys are pretty solid 4 WAR type of performers.

 

Pitching is still the name of the game. Without it you do not get far. When you think you have enough, the smart move is to look for more. Its also why it is so expensive to acquire in trade or free agency.

 

Listen, the Tribe is still kicking itself for letting Hector Rondon get away to the cubs via the Rule 5 a few years ago & dealing away Chris Archer (yes, the one in Tampa) while he was still in Low-A ball. Barring injury McKenzie is on track for the getting to the bigs at some point in 2019, when he would be 21 yrs old. Will he dominate? Will he fall flat on his face? Time will tell but that is a talent that does not get traded.

 

IF there is one thing that DSterns has done well with the rebuild its getting a boatload of talent in certain areas so he could (in theory) use it to make trades OR ignore talents at certain stocked positions to make draft selections & international signings where he currently has lesser talent.

A few years ago the Tribe system had enough depth that they took a risky pick in Brady Aiken. At this point it does not look like a good gamble but the point is they had the depth to make the selection. They also had the depth to complete a trade for Andrew Miller & nearly get Lucroy while still having Zimmer, McKenzie & others in the system..

[JosephC]

I agree with McKenzie being a riser and Longenhagen's 30's estimate seems right to me. I like McKenzie a lot and am not under-estimating his talent or his value. On the flip side, I think many Brewer fans are under-estimating Ray's talent and his value. Slow start to this year, but still looks like a solid top 50 prospect and a pretty good chance to be a solid 4 WAR player year in and year out in the big leagues.

 

If you want to play the surplus value game, I'll increase the 2016 surplus value estimates by 10% for this season and then these categories break down as follows:

-Pitchers 26-50 = 32.78 million

-Hitters 26-50 = 42.02 million

-Hitters 51-75 = 24.64 million

I'd have them both in the 26-50 range, which would put Ray's surplus value at 9.24 million over McKenzie. But if Ray is bumped down to the 51-75 group, then McKenzie's surplus value is 8.14 million over Ray. Those numbers tell me a straight-up flip of the two would be a pretty reasonable deal. I'd project Santana to float around 2 WAR mark over the next 4 2/3 seasons...but let's just figure him to be a 1 WAR player over that timeframe. If so, his value per season would be 5.6 (rest of 2017), 8.8, 9.2, 9.6 and 10 million. At minimal salary in 2017 and 2018, then use the 40/60/80 estimate over the last three years puts his salary at 0.4, 0.6, 3.7, 5.8, 8 million. Total is 43.2 million in value versus 18.5 million in salary earned for an surplus value of 24.7 million. Adding that to a 24.64 million in surplus value for Ray puts the Brewers contributing 49.34 million in surplus value versus only 32.78 from the Indian's end. That's why I think the trade is too lop-sided towards the Indian's end if both Ray and Santana are included.

 

As always, it all comes down to how one guesses (and that's all it is, a guess) on how these players move forward. Ray could crap out, Santana could revert back to being a 0.5 WAR player and McKenzie could emerge as a legitimate MLB ace. On the flip side, McKenzie could crap out, Ray could easily become a Starling Marte type performer and Santana could just continue right along the .850 OPS/2 WAR path he put himself on this season.

[MrTPlush]

Agreed the two prospects are about even. Would sway either way depending on what your scouts think. Only difference is we are adding a somewhat proven MLB starter.

[Oxy]

As always, it all comes down to how one guesses (and that's all it is, a guess) on how these players move forward. Ray could crap out, Santana could revert back to being a 0.5 WAR player and McKenzie could emerge as a legitimate MLB ace. On the flip side, McKenzie could crap out, Ray could easily become a Starling Marte type performer and Santana could just continue right along the .850 OPS/2 WAR path he put himself on this season.

 

Interesting breakdown JoeC. The other aspects to consider is organizational depth, and who is initiating the trade. If the Brewers targeted McKenzie as a guy they want and initiate talks with the Indians about him, they will likely have to give slightly more than market value for him--which they can do if they are trading from an area of depth.

[JosephC]

Just to be clear, I didn't make this thread to pick apart my proposals, more so to get the discussion going of what possible moves we could make at the deadline. These are just teams that could legitimately need to make a move at the deadline for players that we have a surplus of.

 

Brewers get:

LHP-Justin Wilson

 

Tigers get:

OF-Ryan Cordell

RHP-Taylor Williams

RHP-Tyler Cravy

 

Wilson is in year number 5 so he would be controlled for through the 2018 season. Setup man with 281 major league innings. Career 3.23 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 9.4 K/9. So far this season has a 2.74 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 13.7 K/9. Has hit a new high in average fastball velocity this season (96.2) but has an very low .244 BABIP so it can be expected that the ERA and WHIP will drift back towards the career averages as the season progresses. Despite the .500 record, rumors are that Detroit will be in full sell mode. They've used Wilson as a closer at times the last few weeks, probably to try to increase his value (had 1 career save before this season). I'd project him as a 1.5 WAR pitcher going forward even though he has pitched well over that level so far this season. His surplus value is probably in the range of 12-15 million.

 

If the Tigers blow up their roster they will probably be looking for advanced prospects that they can plug in fairly soon. I think Cordell probably holds a bit more than perceived value for a team like Detroit because he could fit on a 25-man roster tomorrow and has no problem playing all 3 outfield positions. Williams is still working his way back and the pitch counts have remained under 60 but he has looked really good lately. This would be the "lottery-ticket" part of the trade. Tyler Cravy is a throw-in that could fill the spot on the 25 that's been vacated by Wilson or they could stash him back at AAA for some bullpen depth/insurance. I'd classify Cordell as a "top 10 organizational prospect" and Williams and Cravy as "role player prospects" which puts surplus value's as follows: Cordell = 10 million and Williams and Cravy at 5 million each for a total rough estimate of 20 million.

 

EDIT : Downgrade Cravy to "fringe prospect" and lower his estimated surplus value from 5 million to 2 million. Brewer's total contribution to the trade is approximately 17 million.

[SandyTolan]

Not sure why you'd give up two very strong prospects for 1.5 years of control, when the Brewers aren't ready to really go for it yet. Seems like a big waste. Taylor Williams especially seems not worth giving away like that. Given how strong he looks at AA now, he may be ready by next year anyway.

[MillerParkSouth]

Stearns should be fired if he starts making win-now moves like that for a reliever, especially one with only a year and a half of control left.