Runner at 3rd less than two outs

[SomewhereInTime]

It was discussed in the game thread after another day of struggling with runners in scoring position. I and others pointed out the struggles the Brewers have had over the years in getting a runner in from third with less than two outs. Here is the link to the stats page I was looking for.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-situational-batting.shtml

 

2017: 24th

2016: 28th

2015: 19th

2014: 24th

 

 

This has been a problem for this team for years.

[adambr2]

Not surprising, part of it is a product of high strikeout teams.

 

Which you'd think would at least also usually put us near the bottom in double plays grounded into, but that's not the case

[reillymcshane]

It was discussed in the game thread after another day of struggling with runners in scoring position. I and others pointed out the struggles the Brewers have had over the years in getting a runner in from third with less than two outs. Here is the link to the stats page I was looking for.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-situational-batting.shtml

 

2017: 24th

2016: 28th

2015: 19th

2014: 24th

 

This has been a problem for this team for years.

 

The problem is not simply with runners in scoring position - it's simply hitting in general. We just haven't been that good. Combine that with striking out a lot (at least lately), and it makes it easier to not drive in those runs.

 

League Batting Average:

2017: 12th

2016: 25th

2015: 22nd

2014: 15th

 

League Strike Out Totals (higher is worse):

2017: 29th

2016: 30th

2015: 21st

2014: 11th

 

I'm just thinking that the extreme strike out heavy team we have is going to more likely lead to this kind of result. That's just a guess - don't know if it's true.

 

Also, it doesn't help that we have a very young team. I'm guessing (and this is again - just a guess) that players who survive in this league and have been around the block a bit more have learned to adjust to their situation more than younger guys.

[pacopete4]

The ranking is a bit misleading. The league average is 50% and we are 47%. Not only that but looking through the stats there isn't much correlation between being overly successful in this department and winning games.

[Baldkin]

They had 332 PA's in that situation in 2016, and he scored 148 times.

 

We're literally talking 25 PA's as the difference between being 28th and top-10.

[monty57]

The ranking is a bit misleading. The league average is 50% and we are 47%. Not only that but looking through the stats there isn't much correlation between being overly successful in this department and winning games.

 

Getting the run in with two outs and a man on third means scoring a run vs not scoring a run. How can scoring a run vs not scoring a run not correlate with winning games?

[Ennder]

Also what popped out to me is that in 2014 we were only 11th in strike outs yet we were still 24th in this category. I don't think it is just about striking out, there is probably more to it.

[SoCalBrewfan]

As noted above, the current team is just barely below league average, so the ranking is highly misleading. If they had performed at league average, which is 50%, they would have scored 59.5 runs instead of 57 in those situations. Are those 2 or 3 runs changing the team outlook so dramatically?

 

One advantage of living a bunch of places is that you get outside perspectives on baseball teams. Every place I've lived, there have been complaints that the home team (Twin, Astros / Braves, Mariners, Dodgers / Angels) fails too often with runners in scoring position. As the numbers above suggest, even scoring a run with <2 outs and a runner on third is a coin flip. Fans' expectations are out of whack.

 

What's cool about the table though is that the Brewers have had 119 situations with <2 outs, runner on third, and the MLB average is 103. (Brewers are tied for fifth in MLB in this category.) Baltimore has only 76 such, so the fact that they've scored 54% of the time doesn't really compensate for the far fewer opportunities. The Padres have scored 62% of runners in these situations, but have only 78 such opportunities. I'd much rather have the Brewers' numbers than the Padres'

[FVBrewerFan]

Couple other factors that would have a marginal effect on the numbers:

 

1) Brewers, being an NL team, would have pitcher up in some of those situations vs the AL teams that don't have that variable.

 

2) Manager's philosophy matters. As we know, RR would bunt a lot with a runner on 3rd. CC prefers to swing away.

 

3) Ed Sedar.

[pacopete4]

The ranking is a bit misleading. The league average is 50% and we are 47%. Not only that but looking through the stats there isn't much correlation between being overly successful in this department and winning games.

 

Getting the run in with two outs and a man on third means scoring a run vs not scoring a run. How can scoring a run vs not scoring a run not correlate with winning games?

 

Take a look at the most of the teams at the list. Not much correlation between being great in this department and winning more games than not. San Diego, Miami, SFG are all in the top 5. How they doing this year?

[PaulLeoMolitor]

Couple other factors that would have a marginal effect on the numbers:

 

1) Brewers, being an NL team, would have pitcher up in some of those situations vs the AL teams that don't have that variable.

 

2) Manager's philosophy matters. As we know, RR would bunt a lot with a runner on 3rd. CC prefers to swing away.

 

3) Ed Sedar.

Not sure how Ed Sedar would have much effect on getting a runner home from 3rd base with less than 2 outs. A runner's actions at 3rd base on a ground ball with less than 2 outs is generally going to be predetermined by the manager or based on team philosophy. I suppose he could have some influence on tagging up on fly balls, but even then the individual player is probably going to make the call on whether they think they can make it or not. Same goes with scoring on a wild pitch or passed ball, the runner has to make a split decision on his own.

[mertonmonk]

I'm not sure how much of the difference between the Brewers and a team that ranks much higher on scoring runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs is just luck. Remember - a 10% change in batting average, from .200 to .300 is the difference between a DFA and an all-star, so a small streak of balls finding holes and your team could jump up that ranking pretty quickly. Yount and those of his era have said in interviews that the game is played very differently today. Uke had Yount in the booth with him a few weeks ago, and Yount said that with 2 strikes, all hitters changed their approach because strike outs were a huge stigma. He also said that they changed their approach to hitting based on the situation, which is why the shifts everyone employs now would not have worked then. Now everyone wants to hit the ball as hard as they can and take pretty much the same swing every time - rarely does anyone intentionally hit to a specific field just to move a runner. Most players are consumed with slugging percentage, believing (probably correctly) that will lead to bigger pay days. The 'team' aspect of offense just isn't as high a priority. It would be interesting to see how the media of how teams do in this category today compare to the media of teams in the 70's - maybe that would shed some light on the difference in approaches by an entire team. It seems that the Brewers, and lots of other teams, have lots of unproductive outs, and that would have been a much bigger deal a few decades ago. Just my thoughts.

[mertonmonk]

media should have been 'media' (average).

[OnTheBlack]

As noted above, the current team is just barely below league average, so the ranking is highly misleading. If they had performed at league average, which is 50%, they would have scored 59.5 runs instead of 57 in those situations. Are those 2 or 3 runs changing the team outlook so dramatically?

 

One advantage of living a bunch of places is that you get outside perspectives on baseball teams. Every place I've lived, there have been complaints that the home team (Twin, Astros / Braves, Mariners, Dodgers / Angels) fails too often with runners in scoring position. As the numbers above suggest, even scoring a run with <2 outs and a runner on third is a coin flip. Fans' expectations are out of whack.

 

What's cool about the table though is that the Brewers have had 119 situations with <2 outs, runner on third, and the MLB average is 103. (Brewers are tied for fifth in MLB in this category.) Baltimore has only 76 such, so the fact that they've scored 54% of the time doesn't really compensate for the far fewer opportunities. The Padres have scored 62% of runners in these situations, but have only 78 such opportunities. I'd much rather have the Brewers' numbers than the Padres'

 

Not to sidetrack the conversation, but have you ever lived anywhere in which the manager WASN'T the main problem when things were going bad for a team? So far the only place for me is Chicago....and there have been complaints this year(not many, but some).

 

Every fan base at some point thinks it's all on their manager. The worst I can recall was LaRussa the year the Cards won the WS(I think they won) after winning the division with 82 wins....maybe 83.

[OnTheBlack]

I'm not sure how much of the difference between the Brewers and a team that ranks much higher on scoring runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs is just luck. Remember - a 10% change in batting average, from .200 to .300 is the difference between a DFA and an all-star, so a small streak of balls finding holes and your team could jump up that ranking pretty quickly. Yount and those of his era have said in interviews that the game is played very differently today. Uke had Yount in the booth with him a few weeks ago, and Yount said that with 2 strikes, all hitters changed their approach because strike outs were a huge stigma. He also said that they changed their approach to hitting based on the situation, which is why the shifts everyone employs now would not have worked then. Now everyone wants to hit the ball as hard as they can and take pretty much the same swing every time - rarely does anyone intentionally hit to a specific field just to move a runner. Most players are consumed with slugging percentage, believing (probably correctly) that will lead to bigger pay days. The 'team' aspect of offense just isn't as high a priority. It would be interesting to see how the media of how teams do in this category today compare to the media of teams in the 70's - maybe that would shed some light on the difference in approaches by an entire team. It seems that the Brewers, and lots of other teams, have lots of unproductive outs, and that would have been a much bigger deal a few decades ago. Just my thoughts.

 

 

To me this just sounds like a "back in the good old days" type of a story. I think organizations have gotten smarter, I don't think players have gotten more selfish. Gorman Thomas wasn't changing his 2 strike approach much.

 

And strikeouts did have a bigger stigma....but now people realize it just doesn't matter that much. An out is an out. If there's nobody on base, I'd rather have guys taking a healthy cut up there than just sticking the bat out and hitting a dribbler to 2nd.

 

What's more, there is situational hitting. David Ortiz used to try to bunt the ball every once in a while down the 3rd base line. But the shift takes away a players strength. You couldn't do it with someone like Yount or Molitor because they were great hitters and not particularly pull happy(Especially Molitor). But it would have likely cost Ted Simmons, Gorman and Oglive some hits.

 

I would venture to guess that if you had say...Eddie Matthews in the booth in 1982 talking about the difference between the way the game is played now vs then, he'd have said very similar things. Strikeouts had an even bigger stigma and he probably would have thought that the 82 team was more interested in individual stats vs his '57 team oriented Braves.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Not to sidetrack the conversation, but have you ever lived anywhere in which the manager WASN'T the main problem when things were going bad for a team?

 

That's funny...yeah, it's usually a combination of the bullpen, the manager, and 'clutch hitting.' No fans ever seem fully satisfied. The one exception might have been that Mariners fans gave Lou Piniella a lot of rope in the 90s...though maybe GM Woody Woodward was the guy that really let them down.

[Oxy]

I am normally pretty chill about this sort of thing, but this kind of seemed like a watershed game/moment tonight against the Dodgers/Kershaw. Watching a fastball go by right down the middle with w/a guy on 3rd in a 1 run extra inning game is pretty bad. At least foul it off.

 

There are times when leaving the bat on your shoulder and watching a borderline pitch go by for strike 3 is excusable. Even a fastball. This was NOT one of those times.

[TURBO]

I haven't seen a lot of contempt for Counsell this year when things don't go our way. Sedar gets the business at times, but deservedly so. RRR was always the goat, but again, that guy deserved all he got from the fans and this board and then some. One of my happiest days as a Brewer fan was the day he was finally canned.

[danzig6767]

As noted above, the current team is just barely below league average, so the ranking is highly misleading. If they had performed at league average, which is 50%, they would have scored 59.5 runs instead of 57 in those situations. Are those 2 or 3 runs changing the team outlook so dramatically?

 

One advantage of living a bunch of places is that you get outside perspectives on baseball teams. Every place I've lived, there have been complaints that the home team (Twin, Astros / Braves, Mariners, Dodgers / Angels) fails too often with runners in scoring position. As the numbers above suggest, even scoring a run with <2 outs and a runner on third is a coin flip. Fans' expectations are out of whack.

 

What's cool about the table though is that the Brewers have had 119 situations with <2 outs, runner on third, and the MLB average is 103. (Brewers are tied for fifth in MLB in this category.) Baltimore has only 76 such, so the fact that they've scored 54% of the time doesn't really compensate for the far fewer opportunities. The Padres have scored 62% of runners in these situations, but have only 78 such opportunities. I'd much rather have the Brewers' numbers than the Padres'

 

Not to sidetrack the conversation, but have you ever lived anywhere in which the manager WASN'T the main problem when things were going bad for a team? So far the only place for me is Chicago....and there have been complaints this year(not many, but some).

 

Every fan base at some point thinks it's all on their manager. The worst I can recall was LaRussa the year the Cards won the WS(I think they won) after winning the division with 82 wins....maybe 83.

I have a buddy who is from St. Louis and he talks about how on Cardinals forums he goes on that the fans constantly bash on Matheny like he's a complete bumbling idiot. It's just how so many fans roll. Baseball managers have the least impact of the pro sports, but when things go bad, way to often the managers get ripped as if they are a big reason why. Talent wins in baseball, just look at Ned Yost who made back to back World Series appearances.

 

As for the runner on third/less than outs situation, because it stings when failure happens to the team fans cheer for and it feels good when the other team fails, it makes those fans feel like that failure happens so much more than other teams. So the times say a guy K's in that spot, especially in a close game, the frustration over that sticks in the brain more than being happy when a guy hits a sac fly. I'm guilty of it. Out flies a barrage of swearing, regardless if the other team may have done the same thing an inning prior.

[SomewhereInTime]

As noted above, the current team is just barely below league average, so the ranking is highly misleading. If they had performed at league average, which is 50%, they would have scored 59.5 runs instead of 57 in those situations. Are those 2 or 3 runs changing the team outlook so dramatically?

 

One advantage of living a bunch of places is that you get outside perspectives on baseball teams. Every place I've lived, there have been complaints that the home team (Twin, Astros / Braves, Mariners, Dodgers / Angels) fails too often with runners in scoring position. As the numbers above suggest, even scoring a run with <2 outs and a runner on third is a coin flip. Fans' expectations are out of whack.

 

What's cool about the table though is that the Brewers have had 119 situations with <2 outs, runner on third, and the MLB average is 103. (Brewers are tied for fifth in MLB in this category.) Baltimore has only 76 such, so the fact that they've scored 54% of the time doesn't really compensate for the far fewer opportunities. The Padres have scored 62% of runners in these situations, but have only 78 such opportunities. I'd much rather have the Brewers' numbers than the Padres'

 

Not to sidetrack the conversation, but have you ever lived anywhere in which the manager WASN'T the main problem when things were going bad for a team? So far the only place for me is Chicago....and there have been complaints this year(not many, but some).

 

Every fan base at some point thinks it's all on their manager. The worst I can recall was LaRussa the year the Cards won the WS(I think they won) after winning the division with 82 wins....maybe 83.

I have a buddy who is from St. Louis and he talks about how on Cardinals forums he goes on that the fans constantly bash on Matheny like he's a complete bumbling idiot. It's just how so many fans roll. Baseball managers have the least impact of the pro sports, but when things go bad, way to often the managers get ripped as if they are a big reason why. Talent wins in baseball, just look at Ned Yost who made back to back World Series appearances.

 

As for the runner on third/less than outs situation, because it stings when failure happens to the team fans cheer for and it feels good when the other team fails, it makes those fans feel like that failure happens so much more than other teams. So the times say a guy K's in that spot, especially in a close game, the frustration over that sticks in the brain more than being happy when a guy hits a sac fly. I'm guilty of it. Out flies a barrage of swearing, regardless if the other team may have done the same thing an inning prior.

 

While I agree about what you said about managers, the numbers are pretty clear that the brewers have struggled getting the runner in from third with less than two outs.

[Baldkin]

I wonder how many of those failures are due to guys being thrown out at home with the stupid contact play on.