1/3rd of the way through the season projections

[adambr2]

Thames: 42 HR, 5.4 WAR

Shaw: 27 HR, 108 RBI, 4.5 WAR

Santana: 24 HR

Broxton: 18 HR, 30 SB

Perez: 15 HR, 498 AB

Bandy/Pina: 24 HR, 96 RBI

Villar: 15 HR, 36 SB

 

Anderson: 12-3, 3.30 ERA, 187K, 188 IP

Nelson: 3.83 ERA, 162K

 

 

This is just for fun, obviously these are just "projections" at this point and no idea which ones will be higher or lower than projected out for a full season after 1/3rd of the way. Some thoughts:

 

- Villar still showing good power and speed. If he could ever get on base again he'd be pretty productive.

- That's a really solid catching duo.

- Despite no permanent position there has been no trouble finding AB's for Hernan.

- Shaw would probably get my vote for most underrated on the team.

[nate82]

 

Anderson: 12-3, 3.30 ERA, 187K, 188 IP

Nelson: 3.83 ERA, 162K

 

 

This is just for fun, obviously these are just "projections" at this point and no idea which ones will be higher or lower than projected out for a full season after 1/3rd of the way. Some thoughts:

 

- Villar still showing good power and speed. If he could ever get on base again he'd be pretty productive.

- That's a really solid catching duo.

- Despite no permanent position there has been no trouble finding AB's for Hernan.

- Shaw would probably get my vote for most underrated on the team.

 

I think Nelson could reach that ERA mark or be very close to it. Somewhere near a 4 ERA is basically what Nelson is. I don't think Anderson will continue to pitch the way he has but who knows maybe he does. I think Anderson is going to be the one who regresses the most the rest of the season.

 

This season has been weird so far as there is only one team that is on pace for 90+ losses the Phillies and the rest of the league looks like a bunch of 75-80 win teams. The NL East is the weakest division in all of baseball record wise with only a total of 116 wins so far. The AL East and the NL West look to be the most competitive divisions in baseball. The AL and NL Central look completely flat at some point one of the better teams in the AL and NL Central are going to put it together (the Indians look like they are on track now). The Cubs look horrible and the shell of the team they were last year but at some point they are going to put a winning streak together and will put the Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates behind them.

 

As of right now I think the Brewers could win 85 games and finish 2nd in the NL Central as I believe 88 wins as of right now looks like it wins the NL Central.

[Boomer5]

They really have exceeded expectations by a huge margin. If they had a bullpen they could make this interesting.

[DHonks]

Boomer, our bullpen has been a big part of our success. It has lost a few games for us, but it's also come up pretty clutch

[Roderick]

Boomer, our bullpen has been a big part of our success. It has lost a few games for us, but it's also come up pretty clutch

 

Looking at the stats, if I am reading this right, the Brewer bullpen is:

 

9-14 W-L

3.84 ERA

196.2 IP

.253/.343/.412/.755

1.419 WHIP

 

I assume the ERA, OPS, and WHIP are all on the high end of averages for a bullpen. But, I didn't see a stat for league average and wasn't going to go team by team.

 

The other thing I noticed is that the pitchers have a .77 lower ERA with Pina catching. 260 innings for Bandy and 226 for Pina. See how that continues to trend.

[SoCalBrewfan]

NL bullpen ERA is 3.99. However the OPS against is well above the NL average of .713.

 

For whatever it's worth, Fangraphs has the Brewers' bullpen at 1.6 WAR, 11th in the majors. We have had some real duds in the pen this year, but most teams do.

 

It is also interesting to see that we're 4th in most bullpen innings. Most of the teams at the top of that list have positive WAR, but the Marlins are right with the Brewers but with negative WAR...lots of bad bullpen innings in Miami. In contrast, Cleveland has the 2nd fewest bullpen innings but 3.4 WAR, second highest.

[gregmag]

If we continue to churn bodies and roles in the pen somewhat intelligently (or if it turns out we've already churned optimally), then the relievers' performance going forward should somewhat exceed the past numbers.

 

The encouraging thing about the rotation, which I've slagged off a lot, is that it isn't just one guy stepping up. We have Guerra back; Anderson just had the two best starts of his career back to back; Nelson looks like he may be figuring some things out. I still don't think Davies is as bad as he's been pitching. Plus Garza has been mostly competent, and Woodruff or Espino look like credible gap-fillers, at least, if needed. I think the rotation will be better going forward than it has been so far.

[reillymcshane]

NL Relievers Averages vs Brewers Relievers

 

ERA: 3.99 / 3.84

WHIP: 1.33 / 1.42

Wins: 8 / 9

Losses: 9 / 14

IP: 180 / 196.2

BB: 75 / 93

SO: 179 / 184

BA: .242 / .253

OPS: .713 / .755

OBP: .322 / .343

SLG: .391 / .412

K/BB: 2.43 / 1.98

K/9: 8.90 / 8.42

SB: 11 / 15

CS: 3 /2

 

Interestingly, the Brewers are below average in virtually every category - except ERA. We walk too many guys, we give up too many hits, and we give up too many extra base hits (Brewer relievers have given up the most doubles and triples in the league thus far).

 

The bullpen has been overworked. We are second the league in IP for relievers. We give up big hits (doubles, triples, etc.). Some of things may simply be that Miller Park is a hitters park - for us and other teams.

 

As for the low ERA - perhaps we've been a bit lucky. I don't know.

 

All in all, I see a below average bullpen. Not historically awful, but not particularly good. Although I'd hate to see the numbers without Knebel.

[Ennder]

I agree that those numbers look below average. ERA is a really awful stat over these types of samples.

[Austin Tatious]

Isn't Villar's RBI total low? I thought that'd be more like 75

[monty57]

The extra innings thrown generally mean more innings for the bad relievers. If we get more starts like we have recently, then a much higher percentage of the bullpen innings go to the better relievers, which should help the aggregate numbers. Plus, the relievers will be better rested, which can't hurt.

[adambr2]

Isn't Villar's RBI total low? I thought that'd be more like 75

 

Sorry, that was meant to be SB, not RBI. Fixed.

 

That said since you mentioned it I was kind of amazed to see that Villar is on pace for 72 RBI despite sucking this year and leading off all year so far. That would be 9 more than last year.

[Austin Tatious]

Thanks for crunching the numbers. It's good to look at in one place.

[superfly]

I'd assume regression will hit some guys (Thames, Shaw etc) at some point, while others like Villar should pick it up and hopefully it all balances out. I really like Shaw and feel he's been a bit underestimated. He's only 27 so if this is about what he is going to be we have a pretty productive 3B for the next several years. Huge considering the black hole we had there.

[MrTPlush]

Isn't Villar's RBI total low? I thought that'd be more like 75

 

Sorry, that was meant to be SB, not RBI. Fixed.

 

That said since you mentioned it I was kind of amazed to see that Villar is on pace for 72 RBI despite sucking this year and leading off all year so far. That would be 9 more than last year.

 

They showed a graphic yesterday and he actually has hit extremely well with RISP which probably helps the RBI total despite overall pretty ugly numbers.

[Boomer5]

NL Relievers Averages vs Brewers Relievers

 

ERA: 3.99 / 3.84

WHIP: 1.33 / 1.42

Wins: 8 / 9

Losses: 9 / 14

IP: 180 / 196.2

BB: 75 / 93

SO: 179 / 184

BA: .242 / .253

OPS: .713 / .755

OBP: .322 / .343

SLG: .391 / .412

K/BB: 2.43 / 1.98

K/9: 8.90 / 8.42

SB: 11 / 15

CS: 3 /2

 

Interestingly, the Brewers are below average in virtually every category - except ERA. We walk too many guys, we give up too many hits, and we give up too many extra base hits (Brewer relievers have given up the most doubles and triples in the league thus far).

 

The bullpen has been overworked. We are second the league in IP for relievers. We give up big hits (doubles, triples, etc.). Some of things may simply be that Miller Park is a hitters park - for us and other teams.

 

As for the low ERA - perhaps we've been a bit lucky. I don't know.

 

All in all, I see a below average bullpen. Not historically awful, but not particularly good. Although I'd hate to see the numbers without Knebel.

 

These guys have been terrible. It's only a matter of time before their super high WIP turns into runs.

 

At the end of the day you can expect a retread or two to be a gem but they usually are what you think they are. The bullpen guys (and roster) were scrap heap pick ups because their old teams didn't want them.