Speculating about the unseen Battle Brewing between Stearns & Attanasio

[Ennder]

Color it whatever way you want, 2012 to 2014 had a lot of excitement in them. It was not bad baseball to watch. We have had a 2 year rebuild which is nothing at all to complain about. This season has been good baseball to watch and I expect we see some youth mixed in soon which will be more exciting. I think you are being way too results oriented. If we had actually won a World Series in there I feel you would think completely different about this subject and the results shouldn't be what matters. The process of what they did was fine, it just didn't work.

[Boomer5]

Fangraphs article looking at some of the reasons why our record might not quite reflect where we are. The gist of it being that we're both scoring more and giving up less runs than the underlying numbers suggest we should (And for those who don't buy into wOBA, xwOBA and such, you can look at things like WHIP and FIP for the pitching side). Which is what I believe as well: There won't be a difficult decision to make, as I don't think we'll truly be in the wilcard race at the deadline, at least not close enough to warrant big trades.

 

Fangraphs also has our depth chart as the 4th worst roster in baseball.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

So if Mark A is seduced by the 25-22 record, the analytics team will tell him he is wasting his money to bring in veteran help for a year long WC push.

[bill hAll Star]

I think things may figure themselves out in the next few weeks. I'm starting to buy the D-Backs and their rotation. We've got the Dodgers and Cards in the not-too-distant-future. Matz may be back in this set of games with the Mets and the Giants are getting back to being an OK team.

 

If we're still hanging around on June 16 when a string of winnable games comes up, I'll start to worry about Mark doing something stupid.

[monty57]

Fangraphs article looking at some of the reasons why our record might not quite reflect where we are. The gist of it being that we're both scoring more and giving up less runs than the underlying numbers suggest we should (And for those who don't buy into wOBA, xwOBA and such, you can look at things like WHIP and FIP for the pitching side). Which is what I believe as well: There won't be a difficult decision to make, as I don't think we'll truly be in the wilcard race at the deadline, at least not close enough to warrant big trades.

 

Fangraphs also has our depth chart as the 4th worst roster in baseball.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

So if Mark A is seduced by the 25-22 record, the analytics team will tell him he is wasting his money to bring in veteran help for a year long WC push.

 

Kind of odd projections. Broxton already had 0.6 WAR, and they have him getting 0.8 for the season. Shaw is at 0.8 WAR in 173 AB, and they have him getting to 1.2 WAR in 388 PAs - do they expect him to get hurt? Thames is at 1.7 WAR already, and they have him getting 1.7 WAR for the season (only getting 422 PA)

 

Not sure how they came up with these.

[wildcat2237]

I think things may figure themselves out in the next few weeks. I'm starting to buy the D-Backs and their rotation. We've got the Dodgers and Cards in the not-too-distant-future. Matz may be back in this set of games with the Mets and the Giants are getting back to being an OK team.

 

If we're still hanging around on June 16 when a string of winnable games comes up, I'll start to worry about Mark doing something stupid.

 

Agree 100%. Things will shake themselves out here very quickly.

[adambr2]

Fangraphs article looking at some of the reasons why our record might not quite reflect where we are. The gist of it being that we're both scoring more and giving up less runs than the underlying numbers suggest we should (And for those who don't buy into wOBA, xwOBA and such, you can look at things like WHIP and FIP for the pitching side). Which is what I believe as well: There won't be a difficult decision to make, as I don't think we'll truly be in the wilcard race at the deadline, at least not close enough to warrant big trades.

 

Fangraphs also has our depth chart as the 4th worst roster in baseball.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

So if Mark A is seduced by the 25-22 record, the analytics team will tell him he is wasting his money to bring in veteran help for a year long WC push.

 

Kind of odd projections. Broxton already had 0.6 WAR, and they have him getting 0.8 for the season. Shaw is at 0.8 WAR in 173 AB, and they have him getting to 1.2 WAR in 388 PAs - do they expect him to get hurt? Thames is at 1.7 WAR already, and they have him getting 1.7 WAR for the season (only getting 422 PA)

 

Not sure how they came up with these.

 

I think those were preseason projections that aren't updated based on events through the course of the season.

[Boomer5]

Fangraphs article looking at some of the reasons why our record might not quite reflect where we are. The gist of it being that we're both scoring more and giving up less runs than the underlying numbers suggest we should (And for those who don't buy into wOBA, xwOBA and such, you can look at things like WHIP and FIP for the pitching side). Which is what I believe as well: There won't be a difficult decision to make, as I don't think we'll truly be in the wilcard race at the deadline, at least not close enough to warrant big trades.

 

Fangraphs also has our depth chart as the 4th worst roster in baseball.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

So if Mark A is seduced by the 25-22 record, the analytics team will tell him he is wasting his money to bring in veteran help for a year long WC push.

 

Kind of odd projections. Broxton already had 0.6 WAR, and they have him getting 0.8 for the season. Shaw is at 0.8 WAR in 173 AB, and they have him getting to 1.2 WAR in 388 PAs - do they expect him to get hurt? Thames is at 1.7 WAR already, and they have him getting 1.7 WAR for the season (only getting 422 PA)

 

Not sure how they came up with these.

 

I think those are the remainder of the season projections.

[logan82]

We stayed relatively healthy in 2011 and got some surprisingly excellent CF value from Morgan and Gomez, and the pitching held up. It wouldn't have taken much more than a major injury to Prince, Braun, or Greinke to thwart the whole idea, and with Prince leaving after 2011, it was really only a 1 year shot as evidenced by the regression in 2012.

 

Because of the 2011 success it's seen as a great move even though we didn't win a WS, but it was probably an unlucky break or two away from being viewed much differently in retrospect.

We only used 6 different starting pitchers for all of 2011. That is almost unheard of.

[adambr2]

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/7/22/16014934/david-stearns-mark-attanasio-brewers-trade-deadline

 

This article seems to lend some truth to the OP. Not surprisingly, it seems Mark A. is leaning on the aggressive side while Stearns prefers to stay the course .

[FVBrewerFan]

I have complete faith in an anonymous source cited in something called fanrag.

[adambr2]

I have complete faith in an anonymous source cited in something called fanrag.

 

Uh, John Perroto is a fairly respected sports journalist who has written for Baseball Prospectus and is a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America (meaning he casts HOF and annual MLB awards). I highly doubt he's getting his information from some random Twitter user.

 

Whether or not you trust his credentials the information is not that hard to believe.

[brewmann04]

Well it ok to differ we do know Mark is not afraid to spend money for his team.

[Ennder]

Ok well even if you buy what this guy is writing this quote should suggest it really isn't some big deal and certainly isn't a "battle".

 

Some will probably try to spin this into "MARK ATTANASIO IS MEDDLING AGAIN," part of the weird trigger-happy reputation he gained in national circles after firing Ned Yost in the closing weeks of 2008, but this seems pretty mild.

 

Sounds like Mark would like to push in and Stearns said no and it was over.

[adambr2]

Ok well even if you buy what this guy is writing this quote should suggest it really isn't some big deal and certainly isn't a "battle".

 

Some will probably try to spin this into "MARK ATTANASIO IS MEDDLING AGAIN," part of the weird trigger-happy reputation he gained in national circles after firing Ned Yost in the closing weeks of 2008, but this seems pretty mild.

 

Sounds like Mark would like to push in and Stearns said no and it was over.

 

No I wouldn't say battle either. I simply posted the link here because it seemed like the most appropriate thread for it.

[dacbrewers]

How many seasons of not making the playoffs does Mark A. let Stearns have before he gets the ax?

[TJseven7]

How many Mark A gives him... no idea. I'd give him 6.

 

Rogers trade has proved a win even with broxton being mediocre.

Lucroy trade was done at the right time. That decision on who had weight is cloudy. The return is ytd.

Will smith ytd but again looks like the proper move.

Thorny... shaw makes him look real good. Dubon promising. Thorny worth up in the air.

Villar sparked, guerra sparked (last gm paid guerra types 12 mil/yr), sogard sparked, vogt sparked.

Anderson has continued to improve and diaz is ytd. Despite segura being a low point to sell return was not bad. Segura fresh start makes it a tough value to match.

Not closing a braun deal and feliz (cc asked for a closer) is the only red marks. Both are small unless you think the return from braun was great and we asked for too much.

 

It looks like its the right direction. Teams beating expectations. Farms spoken highly of. His 4th round 15 pitcher is flying up the system. Keston looks like you want a early 1st to look. As long as you see improvement you let him build. At some point that means his guys gotta graduate and carry the club here.

 

I know hader isnt his but this system pitching depth is the best i remember and his ability to pull talent into all levels impresses me. There are a lot of options at all times.

 

If brinson or phillips is a solid improvement in CF and Keston is the real deal and rockets to the majors at 2nd... a you swap hader or woidruff performing solid in place of what weve got from peralta and another 2 hughes types instead of scahill drake and the playoffs will come sooner than later.

 

Year 2 and a 66 mil club... braun out a ton... garza solid but replacable costing a goid chunk of that 66 mil... and in the race... mark A would have to be a moron to quick trigger fire that architect.

[torts]

How many seasons of not making the playoffs does Mark A. let Stearns have before he gets the ax?

For real? Are you legit concerned about this right now?

[JohnBriggs12]

How many seasons of not making the playoffs does Mark A. let Stearns have before he gets the ax?

For real? Are you legit concerned about this right now?

 

What, because you can cover failures on the field for a few years with the "we are sticking to a plan" means you have total job security in perpetuity? It's a legit question. If I'm Attanasio, I'd want to see at least several guys he's traded for and drafted performing at high levels in the big leagues by 2019 or I'm starting to ask some serious questions if "the plan" was merely a method to insure job security. How Stearns handles this unexpected contention this year by maximizing the team's chances without gutting the system completely will say a lot about his skill. Claiming Vogt was a positive move, but he let the Cubs get the jump on him for the difference maker when the Brewers were up by 5 1/2 games.

[adambr2]

How many seasons of not making the playoffs does Mark A. let Stearns have before he gets the ax?

For real? Are you legit concerned about this right now?

 

What, because you can cover failures on the field for a few years with the "we are sticking to a plan" means you have total job security in perpetuity? It's a legit question. If I'm Attanasio, I'd want to see at least several guys he's traded for and drafted performing at high levels in the big leagues by 2019 or I'm starting to ask some serious questions if "the plan" was merely a method to insure job security. How Stearns handles this unexpected contention this year by maximizing the team's chances without gutting the system completely will say a lot about his skill. Claiming Vogt was a positive move, but he let the Cubs get the jump on him for the difference maker when the Brewers were up by 5 1/2 games.

 

Its a silly question in context right now because he's doing a great job, and Mark A has expressed nothing but confidence in him.

 

He 'let the Cubs get the jump on him' because the offense went into a slump . Happens.

 

I also think it's silly to even imply "the plan" was suggested for job security .for Stearns. Every fan alive and Mark A himself knew that we were rebuilding when Stearns was hired. Its why he was hired. Obviously there's going to be a long-term plan for a rebuild.

[Brewcrewin07]

How many seasons of not making the playoffs does Mark A. let Stearns have before he gets the ax?

For real? Are you legit concerned about this right now?

 

What, because you can cover failures on the field for a few years with the "we are sticking to a plan" means you have total job security in perpetuity? It's a legit question. If I'm Attanasio, I'd want to see at least several guys he's traded for and drafted performing at high levels in the big leagues by 2019 or I'm starting to ask some serious questions if "the plan" was merely a method to insure job security. How Stearns handles this unexpected contention this year by maximizing the team's chances without gutting the system completely will say a lot about his skill. Claiming Vogt was a positive move, but he let the Cubs get the jump on him for the difference maker when the Brewers were up by 5 1/2 games.

 

He should have never let the Cubs get Quintana. I get a little tired of people here raving about the prospects and the brewers farm system. We have ZERO idea what these guys will be when they get to the majors. None whatsoever. However, we do know what Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana and guys like that will do, because they have proven it time and time again. I have no idea why Stearns wasn't more agressive on Quintana, and quite honestly, I have no idea why Sonny Gray isn't in a Brewers uniform right now either. These are young, controllable guys, which is what everyone here wants for the Brewers...and not only that, they are controllable and PROVEN.

 

I just have this feeling that whether this season is catching lightning in a bottle or not, it may well be the Brewers best chance of contending in the next 3-4 years. I have a feeling it will be a lot of wheel spinning over the next few years. What kind of a rebuild is that? Stearns is too passive for my tastes. As the saying goes "scared money don't make money". Well, scared GM's don't have jobs forever either.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I think this "all-in" versus "stand pat" is a false dichotomy in some ways. There's a difference between refusing to make any move and not wanting to sell a good chunk of the farm, like the Cubs did for Chapman last year and Quintana this year. It really just depends on fit.

 

Cooper for Webb was a good low-level move to me, and there may be more opportunities like that out there. The Twins rumored Jaime Garcia deal is another one in that camp. Going "all-in" right now feels too risky given the number of unknowns with this roster.

 

Point is, I think Stearns will be aggressive about seeking moves but perhaps not making them if that makes sense. The worst thing you can do right now is overpay. Especially since we have multiple holes to fill (back end of starting rotation, relief pitching, outfield consistency on offense), I just don't think Sonny Gray for a boatload of prospects is that right fit. Kinsler may be better depending on price. I think the hope is that Stearns has designated the right guys as "untouchable" and isn't being stingy about the ones who don't make that list.

[adambr2]

 

He should have never let the Cubs get Quintana. I get a little tired of people here raving about the prospects and the brewers farm system. We have ZERO idea what these guys will be when they get to the majors. None whatsoever. However, we do know what Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana and guys like that will do, because they have proven it time and time again. I have no idea why Stearns wasn't more agressive on Quintana, and quite honestly, I have no idea why Sonny Gray isn't in a Brewers uniform right now either. These are young, controllable guys, which is what everyone here wants for the Brewers...and not only that, they are controllable and PROVEN.

 

I just have this feeling that whether this season is catching lightning in a bottle or not, it may well be the Brewers best chance of contending in the next 3-4 years. I have a feeling it will be a lot of wheel spinning over the next few years. What kind of a rebuild is that? Stearns is too passive for my tastes. As the saying goes "scared money don't make money". Well, scared GM's don't have jobs forever either.

 

Neither do GMs who end up trading stars because they're chasing after the next 'proven' commodity time after time and never have the patience to find out what they have in their prospects.

 

Tyler Thornburg was controllable and proven. How's that working out for Boston?

[Ennder]

I just have this feeling that whether this season is catching lightning in a bottle or not, it may well be the Brewers best chance of contending in the next 3-4 years. I have a feeling it will be a lot of wheel spinning over the next few years. What kind of a rebuild is that? Stearns is too passive for my tastes. As the saying goes "scared money don't make money". Well, scared GM's don't have jobs forever either.

 

We are in year 2 of what was likely to be a 4 or 5 year rebuild, so yeah it may well be. And it would be a horrible choice to just go for it for one year and have to start it all over again. Cubs signing Quintana will help the Brewers in the long term, not hurt them. Outbidding the Cubs would have just shown us that Stearns is a bad GM.

[brewmann04]

It going to be a delicate balance.

[Brewcrewin07]

 

He should have never let the Cubs get Quintana. I get a little tired of people here raving about the prospects and the brewers farm system. We have ZERO idea what these guys will be when they get to the majors. None whatsoever. However, we do know what Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana and guys like that will do, because they have proven it time and time again. I have no idea why Stearns wasn't more agressive on Quintana, and quite honestly, I have no idea why Sonny Gray isn't in a Brewers uniform right now either. These are young, controllable guys, which is what everyone here wants for the Brewers...and not only that, they are controllable and PROVEN.

 

I just have this feeling that whether this season is catching lightning in a bottle or not, it may well be the Brewers best chance of contending in the next 3-4 years. I have a feeling it will be a lot of wheel spinning over the next few years. What kind of a rebuild is that? Stearns is too passive for my tastes. As the saying goes "scared money don't make money". Well, scared GM's don't have jobs forever either.

 

Neither do GMs who end up trading stars because they're chasing after the next 'proven' commodity time after time and never have the patience to find out what they have in their prospects.

 

Tyler Thornburg was controllable and proven. How's that working out for Boston?

 

Look, if you have a Bellinger, or a Trout or a Harper or Kershaw in your system, you know it pretty quickly. I don't see any of those guys in the Brewers system. And everyone keeps saying "emptying the farm" for Gray. if you can get him for a top 10 prospect, and then a few other pieces..that's not emptying the farm by any stretch. The Cubs certaintly didn't "empty" the farm for Quintana..a couple of A ballers(highly regarded), that weren't going to sniff the majors for awhile anyway.

 

At some point, these prospects will have to be traded anyway..and if you keep thinking "okay next year is our year", or the following year or the following year, and it never comes, then what?? You always deal with the known...and what is known RIGHT NOW, as unlikely as it is, is they are in contention this year. You play to win the game...now. The future is just that, the future and unpredictable.