Speculating about the unseen Battle Brewing between Stearns & Attanasio

[FVBrewerFan]

Wait. We can't trade Reed for a top 100 prospect? Man.

 

No, not unless he's packaged with Cravy.

[monty57]

I've written this many times over the last couple of years.... How can a small market team expect to win consistently over a long period of time? It hasn't been done yet! What small market team has been to the playoffs consistently over a five to seven year period, including a WS title? Free agency and high arby prices make it nearly impossible. Like it or not, Stearns will need to take his shot and will need to give up some (not all) of the farm to get us over the edge, whether that means into the playoffs or into a WS with some proven talent to fill gaps.

 

On the flip side, we could accomplish Stearns goal of winning consistently, being better than average, and live in that 80 to 90 win gap for the next 10 years. We would make a playoff series or two, but we could be the MLB version of the Milwaukee Bucks, living in that #8 seed territory or #13 pick of the lottery. Not one wants that.

 

His tough talk is easy now. No pressure to win now. No one expects much from the Brewers this year or next (although it is exciting to be in first place). That will change, however, and he will have to move good, young talent for proven stop gaps to accomplish goals.

 

To be fair, how many big market teams other than the Yankees back when they had a tremendous monetary advantage over every other team in baseball have won consistently over a long period of time, including World Series wins?

 

I'd say a good model was the Rays under Friedman. They won consistently in the toughest division in baseball at the time. As soon as Friedman left, they stopped being a perennial contender. The Cardinals aren't a big market, but they have a pretty good history. The Twins under Ryan were good until they got into the unwinnable situation of feeling the need to sign "hometown boy" Mauer to a monster contract that crippled the franchise. The A's were winning until they decided to let a book be published that gave away their winning strategy to all of their opponents.

 

Having good management with a solid strategy is a winning recipe in any business, including baseball. I think a big reason smaller markets don't sustain success is that they feel pressure to "win now," so they throw their long-term plans out the window. Friedman proved that a good GM with a good plan can win regardless of market size, and the Cardinals have proven that if you develop a winning philosophy, you can take a small market team and make it one of the winningest teams in history.

 

We don't yet know if Stearns is "the next Friedman," but if he is I hope Attanasio pays him a boatload of money to stay.

[tmwiese55]

As sad as it is to say the Cardinals are the closest model we can go after. Continually draft late in draft yet continue to pull producers out of their system who contribute. Of course they have more ability to resign guys than we do but that's the nature of being the smallest market. It's a closer comp than NYK, BOS, CHC, etc.

[brewcrewdue80]

Maybe if this had happened last year in terms of ML team winning but the Minors prospects perform below expectations. At this point Mark A has to be looking up and down the whole org and see tge winning going on throughout, the prospects meeting to exceeding expectations.

 

The only Battle Brewing between the two is how much to extend your GM contract anoth 6years.

[3and2Fastball]

"David if we had more pitching I think we could have swept the Blue Jays...."

 

(Stearns thinking "good Lord have patience") "yes sir we are constantly evaluating options in terms of upgrading our pitching staff in ways that can foster an atmosphere of controllable talent assets over the course of an extended period of time."

 

(Mark A thinking "is he agreeing with me? What exactly did he say?") "OK great. Keep up the good work."

[adambr2]

Looking ahead I see (hopefully) at least one or two pitching prospects that could give us significant contributions every year. Woodruff and Hader this year, Lopez and Ortiz next year, then perhaps Bickford and Taylor Williams in 2019 and at some points in 2020, Ponce, Burnes, Supak, Peralta, and Diplan will all be possibilities.

 

Obviously the further away they are, the less sure of a thing and not all these guys will pan out. But I think this is what Stearns meant by talent at every level and he's done a good job at that. There is pitching at every level that have legitimate upside and aren't just organizational fodder. But we're not ready this year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Look at the current state of our MLB pitching. Trading every prospect we have won't give us a truly competitive staff. We're not a pitcher or two from serious contender. We're like 5 SP's and a couple RP's from being a serious contender. I doubt Mark is delusional enough to think the current roster legitimate nor that we have enough prospects to acquire the players to make us legitimate this year.

[DHonks]

Part of the benefit of accumulating talent is that you can deal some of it if needed. We can't keep everyone (Rule 5 and minor league free agency), so there comes a point where minor leaguers can be turned into big league talent. We have so much minor league talent now that we could afford a trade or two if needed, without being short-sighted

[Baldkin]

I speculate that the unseen battle entails Stearns and Attanasio staging bizarrely accurate recreations of Godzilla fight scenes. Stearns is Mothra.

 

[BuckyBrewer61]

There didn't appear to be a defined strategy. In what looked to be a futile effort to compete, we used our farm as trade material for MLB upgrades, while never making any moves that would add talent to the farm. At the same time, payroll was normally over budget, mainly being spent on past-their-prime veterans, with few good players at league minimum, so we had to fill the gaping holes in the roster with subpar talent that we could afford, making it hard to be competitive. Overall, it seemed pretty obvious that it wasn't going to end well.

 

This.

 

There is nothing wrong with making a big trade to upgrade the MLB roster when the team is ready to compete for the playoffs/WS, and I was and still am all for the Sabbathia and Greinke trades. But after 2011 the Brewers were shortsighted and continued to sign aging free agents, trade off minor league players from an increasingly thin farm system, and refused to sell high on their MLB pieces (Gallardo, Ramirez), opting to play for now with a team that wasn't a real contender while largely ignoring the future. That ended in a predictably bad situation for the franchise that DS was brought in to fix. It's a tough balancing act, but you can build the MLB team while still planning for the future. DS has proven that to an extent already in his short time here.

 

No, I don't think the Brewers can compete for the playoffs annually, very few MLB teams can. But if they are smart, they can have multiple-year windows to compete, while being at the constant ready to infuse the club with new talent from the farm and compete 1-2 years after a down year, a la the Rays, A's, and Twins of yesteryear. In the MLB, where truly any team that makes the playoffs can win the WS, the goal should be to sustain success and get to the playoffs as many times as possible over years, not necessarily build that one great team to "go for it" for one year. I have faith that is the plan for MA and DS.

[MrTPlush]

We traded minor leaguers after 2011? I can think of some pretty minor trades with no name prospects that amounted to nothing. Haniger and Banda I guess we're notable? Though they turned into Davies...so. I doubt trading them ruined anything future related as Haniger likely never going to get a shot here.

 

I highly disagree we were put in a bad situation failing to rebuild after 2011. It just delayed it.

[Ennder]

There is no way the 2011 Brewers should have rebuilt, they still had a strong core that could make the playoffs. Same with the 2012 team who won 83 games and easily could have won more. That was part of the first good stretch the team had had in a long time and they wanted to maximize the window, there really is nothing wrong with that. About the only complaint I can really see is that they signed Lohse. It isn't like we made any major trades in that time frame. The rebuild really started in 2015 when they got rid of Gallardo. So there is maybe a 2 year window in there where you can make an argument they should have been selling harder than they did but it is really just nitpicking. They still had an 82 win season in there and it wasn't due to a lot of overperformers, it was an 80+ win roster.

 

Whatever problems I have with how they handled the team in that timeframe doesn't offset the huge bonus that they didn't sign Fielder. That is a mistake that would have really hurt the team. Going for it another 2 years that didn't work out isn't a huge deal. They still ended up selling off most of the 2013+ players that have any value, a bunch of guys didn't walk because they insisted on trying for 2 more years or anything. They didn't make any huge midseason deals just to try to get an extra win or two.

[BuckyBrewer61]

We traded minor leaguers after 2011? I can think of some pretty minor trades with no name prospects that amounted to nothing. Haniger and Banda I guess we're notable? Though they turned into Davies...so. I doubt trading them ruined anything future related as Haniger likely never going to get a shot here.

 

I highly disagree we were put in a bad situation failing to rebuild after 2011. It just delayed it.

 

 

Fair enough - minor league pieces were traded away for 2011, which again I was ok with, but no concerted effort was made to restock the system for years thereafter when the writing was on the wall that the team was not the contender it once was, especially after a bad first half of 2012 and the Greinke trade. Instead they subsequently held on to pieces of value until that value was all but lost or trades were forced by free agency, spent money and draft picks on aging free agents, and largely ignored the minors to put together teams that weren't so much contenders as they were teams which many of us here would say "boy if everything breaks just right we might contend."

 

After 2011, the Brewers spent 3+ years trying to compete in the majors at the expense of not bolstering the farm. After those 3 years, they had no playoff appearances to show for it, didn't finish higher than 3rd in the division, were clearly on the downtrend and started the next year 4-17, and had the 26th rated farm system out of 30 with just one top 100 prospect (Arcia). Call that a delay if you wish, I call that a pretty bad situation.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Not saying they should've gone full teardown and trade everyone starting midway through 2012, but as Stearns is currently showing you can make moves to improve the MLB club while not spending money, draft picks, and ignoring the farm. It is certainly more difficult, but at least don't target guys that handcuff you for the future because they are at their peak market value a la Lohse and Garza.

[monty57]

Oversimplification, but when they decided to hold onto Fielder and Hart instead of trading them, and took the further step of trading the farm for Greinke and Marcum, they basically ended the period of building from within, and decided they were putting all their cards on the table for a one (maybe two) year window to try to win it all. This got us probably the second best season in Brewer history, but the opportunity cost is unknown other than to say that the Royals had pretty good success with a lot of the guys we traded away, and we don't know how much talent we could've received from Fielder and Hart if we had targeted minor leaguers instead of "MLB ready" talent.

 

After the one good year, we basically started patching things together trying to retain fading glory. We had just enough success to keep Attanasio feeling that we were one piece away from contending, and his statements that fans like seeing names on the jerseys that they know assured me that we would continue to get relatively expensive "name players" rather than relying on young "unknown" talent.

 

Sports are a young person's arena, and as we have seen, trading "known" guys for a group of young "unknown" guys can quickly lead to a more talented organization. I argued at the time that we should do things differently, but what's done is done. I love how Stearns is operating, as it is in large part what I was begging for during the aforementioned period. I'm happy where we are at, and where we are headed, and if it took a few mistakes on Attanasio's part for him to learn a bit about being a successful owner, then it was probably worth it.

[tmwiese55]

For all of our 'traded the farm' moves in 2011 that people point out as hurting our future. Do you really think our situation would be different if we had Cain and Odorizzi right now? Escobar is just blah. And where was Cain going to get PT for us? Odorizzi is a solid mid level pitcher, but nothing game changing for us. The go for it trades weren't the problem, they actually did well in the trades. It was a completely horrible run of draft/development that led to the situation they were in to not replenish the team. They basically haven't hit on a 1st round pick since Braun, good luck competing as a small market like that. Note, Odorizzi was a 1st a couple years later though that would've contributed.

 

Also have to remember that going into 2012 and 2013 Braun was still MVP Braun without significant injury flags yet and they didn't know the suspension was coming. Hindsight the Braun injury/suspension should have been the teardown moment. But in spite of them not you can't forget that without just a historic collapse in September they would've won another division a couple years ago. The team they built that year was good enough to do it, but had whatever locker room BS that caused that collapse. Note: I'm not saying good enough that they were some favorite or no doubt division winner, just that they were good enough to pull off a division win as evidenced by leading like 85% of the season.

[adambr2]

Oversimplification, but when they decided to hold onto Fielder and Hart instead of trading them, and took the further step of trading the farm for Greinke and Marcum, they basically ended the period of building from within, and decided they were putting all their cards on the table for a one (maybe two) year window to try to win it all. This got us probably the second best season in Brewer history, but the opportunity cost is unknown other than to say that the Royals had pretty good success with a lot of the guys we traded away, and we don't know how much talent we could've received from Fielder and Hart if we had targeted minor leaguers instead of "MLB ready" talent.

 

After the one good year, we basically started patching things together trying to retain fading glory. We had just enough success to keep Attanasio feeling that we were one piece away from contending, and his statements that fans like seeing names on the jerseys that they know assured me that we would continue to get relatively expensive "name players" rather than relying on young "unknown" talent.

 

Sports are a young person's arena, and as we have seen, trading "known" guys for a group of young "unknown" guys can quickly lead to a more talented organization. I argued at the time that we should do things differently, but what's done is done. I love how Stearns is operating, as it is in large part what I was begging for during the aforementioned period. I'm happy where we are at, and where we are headed, and if it took a few mistakes on Attanasio's part for him to learn a bit about being a successful owner, then it was probably worth it.

 

Exactly. I think Mark A. has seen the light, so to speak. Not that he was ever a bad owner, just a bit overzealous. I think when he took over, he wanted to put the Brewers on the map and he wanted to do it now. And though we didn't make a World Series and had to rebuild, I think he's succeeded. Without looking up attendance numbers or anything like that I would guess that fan excitement about the team even now in a rebuilding year far exceeds what it was at any point in the 90s. Still, after 10+ years, he's seen the value of patience and hired the man for the job and wants him to see it through.

 

So I think it's kind of crazy to think that Mark is just going to turn back the clock to post 2010 and throw it all away to try for another 1-2 year window. I guess it's possible he might ask Steans if there are moves they can make that would help them now and help them later, but I'm pretty confident that if Stearns tells him it's a bad idea, he's not going to push the issue.

[brewmann04]

With this staff I am not sure we have to worry about the Brewers in Buying mode.

[Thurston Fluff]

Not saying they should've gone full teardown and trade everyone starting midway through 2012, but as Stearns is currently showing you can make moves to improve the MLB club while not spending money, draft picks, and ignoring the farm. It is certainly more difficult, but at least don't target guys that handcuff you for the future because they are at their peak market value a la Lohse and Garza.

 

Melvin showed that as well with players like Scott Podsednik, Casey McGehee and Chris Narveson.

As far as signing guys that handcuff the future I don't think you can just assume Stearns will not sign players like Lohse or Garza just yet. So far he hasn't had any reason to sign established players like Garza or Lohse. Add in the demand to win in a couple years and we'll see if the temptation to sign known commodities is overwhelming or not. Stearns may or may not do that but it is too early to know he won't.

[Austin Tatious]

I think Stearns and Mark are smart enough to keep their eye on the big picture.

 

I don't think they give up any considerable asset unless they get a controllable player back. I seriously doubt we'd part with a major piece for a three month rental. Now, if you get a pitcher controllable through 2020, that's a different animal.

 

We could trade a secondary prospect for a fill-in piece, kind of like when we picked up Ray Durham

[tmwiese55]

Just browsing SP free agents for next year that would kind of fall in the Lohse/Garza mold. Assuming we fall off this year but in the offseason think our O is good but need pitching. There really isn't a lot of options like that. Maybe Cobb from Tampa, but I'd think he's view more highly than Lohse/Garza were and gets a significantly bigger contract. Maybe Lance Lynn or Jaime Garcia are ones I'd be worried about.

[monty57]

For all of our 'traded the farm' moves in 2011 that people point out as hurting our future. Do you really think our situation would be different if we had Cain and Odorizzi right now? Escobar is just blah. And where was Cain going to get PT for us? Odorizzi is a solid mid level pitcher, but nothing game changing for us.

 

Of course anything we discuss is pure speculation. We know how things turned out with the actions taken, but will never know how things could have turned out if different actions were taken. That said, the "alternate route" would have been trading away Fielder and Hart for prospects, and never making the Greinke and Marcum trades. We see how quickly a franchise can build talent through the Gomez and Lucroy trades. Had we traded Fielder and Hart for prospects, we likely would have been worse in 2011 (maybe no NLCS run), but we would have still had lots of talent on the roster, and would have had a good farm system, likely making the 2012-present teams much better.

 

The go for it trades weren't the problem, they actually did well in the trades. It was a completely horrible run of draft/development that led to the situation they were in to not replenish the team. They basically haven't hit on a 1st round pick since Braun, good luck competing as a small market like that. Note, Odorizzi was a 1st a couple years later though that would've contributed.

 

As has been shown over the past couple of years, the draft is only a part (in our case a small part) of developing a top-tiered farm. I would love for the Brewers to have a better history in the draft, but we went from one of the worst to one of the best farm systems in baseball, while our drafts have not been good.

 

Also have to remember that going into 2012 and 2013 Braun was still MVP Braun without significant injury flags yet and they didn't know the suspension was coming. Hindsight the Braun injury/suspension should have been the teardown moment.

 

Which is why I feel that in the offseason prior to 2011, had we done things differently, we still would have had a playoff-potential roster, and could have quickly created one of the best farms in baseball. Fielder himself would have brought back far more than either the Gomez or Lucroy trade brought us, Melvin just asked for two young MLB pitchers in return for Fielder, and of course no playoff-hopeful team was going to give us that. Plus, Hart would have brought a nice package back, and we would have all the guys we traded away for Geinke and Marcum.

 

But in spite of them not you can't forget that without just a historic collapse in September they would've won another division a couple years ago. The team they built that year was good enough to do it, but had whatever locker room BS that caused that collapse. Note: I'm not saying good enough that they were some favorite or no doubt division winner, just that they were good enough to pull off a division win as evidenced by leading like 85% of the season.

 

On the other side of that, had we not had an historic start to the season, we never would have been in first. All of the teams from 2012-2015 were very streaky, and that was probably because they had a few good players who could carry the team for a period, but they mis-spent their money, so they had a lot of holes in the roster and when the stars weren't performing, the team was pretty bad.

 

But again, this is all speculation. We know what happened, but we will never know how things may have turned out if things were done differently. Sometimes you have to take calculated risks, but I never like mortgaging the future for the present, but that's just my personality. We lived through some "blah" years, and are now we are in what I consider to be a better place, so we're all good :-)

[tmwiese55]

I honestly don't know how you could advocate for tearing down before 2011. Why even have a team if you're going to punt at the goal line? You're just perpetually trading for the future, you have to win at some point and they put out a team that was the favorite to win it all in the final 4. Up 1-0 in the NLCS with home field in WS

[Ennder]

These are two very different stretches of history for the Brewers. Melvin's job was to try to get the team to the playoffs and get a solid fan base built up in the new stadium. That is why all of the young players that came up for him were put into the majors at least half a season before they should have been. It is why they made the go for it type deals. It was an attempt to build the fanbase. Selling off guys right after you finally make the playoffs just isn't a good thing for that. I believe under Melvin we were taking a short term, maximize what you can do while Fielder is on the team type stance. Remember Melvin started with an awful team with very few trade chips and a below average minor league system. He had a lot farther to go to build a team.

 

Stearns is likely tasked to go for a more long term winner type of team. He had tons of major league trade chips to start it with. That makes building up a lot of depth much easier and the length of a reasonable rebuild much shorter.

[adambr2]

I honestly don't know how you could advocate for tearing down before 2011. Why even have a team if you're going to punt at the goal line? You're just perpetually trading for the future, you have to win at some point and they put out a team that was the favorite to win it all in the final 4. Up 1-0 in the NLCS with home field in WS

 

Because they weren't really at the goalline or anywhere near it in 2009 and 2010. They actually had a very similar team to what we have now, but the farm wasn't as good and lacked quality pitching at the top.

 

I'm not saying it was a huge mistake to do what they did but they didnt look like they were right on the cusp. It would be like trading Brinson, Arcia, Hader, Ray, Ortiz and Diaz for the best starters we can get next off-season. We could do it, and we'd probably be a playoff team next year because of it, but that doesn't mean it'd be a good idea.