Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"

[jerichoholicninja]

Brewers need to aquire SP through trades not FA. I'd much rather see what Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, etc. can do as opposed to signing Darvish or Arrieta to a 5 year 90+ million. The Brewers will be trying to emulate what the Rays did/are doing. The last thing this team needs is to be skipping steps of the rebuild by putting band aids on their weaknesses.

 

You are exactly correct. Matt Arnold coming over from the Rays is going to have a big influence on what they do. He has a lot more experience than Stearns.

 

When you can develop pitching the way the Rays have you never have to sign it. The Brewers have been crap at that for 4 decades.

[MKEguy]

When you can develop pitching the way the Rays have you never have to sign it. The Brewers have been crap at that for 4 decades.

 

On a positive note, taking a look at a small sample, we've got a few guys in the minors that we've drafted that seem to be on their way to being productive MLB pitchers. Add the improvement of Ace Chanderson and Jimmy Nelson, one could argue our new regime is better at drafting and developing pitchers. Both were written off as #5 starters or worse this past off season.

[dacbrewers]

They also have a better defense behind them. The previous couple years had some bad defense. Left side of the infield is solid.

[OnaBadger58]

Brewers need to aquire SP through trades not FA. I'd much rather see what Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, etc. can do as opposed to signing Darvish or Arrieta to a 5 year 90+ million. The Brewers will be trying to emulate what the Rays did/are doing. The last thing this team needs is to be skipping steps of the rebuild by putting band aids on their weaknesses.

 

You are exactly correct. Matt Arnold coming over from the Rays is going to have a big influence on what they do. He has a lot more experience than Stearns.

 

When you can develop pitching the way the Rays have you never have to sign it. The Brewers have been crap at that for 4 decades.

 

With the new regime, the Brewers have been much better in the last couple of years. Our farm system is full of SP with good potential. I would be incredibly suprised if we can't get two SPs out of Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, Peralta, Supak, the Williams', Ortiz, Bickford, Diplan, Ponce, or Medeiros. And if they can't, they should have pieces to trade away to get that talent like the Rays did with Archer and Odorizzi. FA is not, and will never be, the answer for the Brewers for the starting rotation.

[MrTPlush]

I remember before the season Lots thought we had the worst rotation in baseball. Now we have two guys pitching like aces and a pair of other starters doing great things(Davies/Garza). Things change quick. Can only imagine 3 years from now when we add Hader/Woodruff/Burnes/Ortiz to that mix. I think our rotation will be our strength in 3 years. Actually I think our entire pitching staff(with bullpen) will be one of the best in the league in the near future. I think the pieces are there to do it.

[3and2Fastball]

I remember before the season Lots thought we had the worst rotation in baseball. Now we have two guys pitching like aces and a pair of other starters doing great things(Davies/Garza). Things change quick. Can only imagine 3 years from now when we add Hader/Woodruff/Burnes/Ortiz to that mix. I think our rotation will be our strength in 3 years. Actually I think our entire pitching staff(with bullpen) will be one of the best in the league in the near future. I think the pieces are there to do it.

 

I think that is certainly a possibility. I'd like to see the Brewers bring in many more pitching prospects through drafts & trades if at all possible. I do think Keston Hiura will be an elite hitter. I think Mauricio Dubon will be at the very least an upgrade over Hernan Perez. Shaw seems legit. Arcia seems legit as a .270 hitting Gold Glove candidate. Lots of question marks with the rest of the organization in terms of building a contending team

[Humans Need Water]

Give the top prospects the opportunity to produce. Santana, Arcia are already up showing a ton of promise and the likes of Brinson, Phillips, Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes, Dubon need to also be given that opportunity. Will need to trade MLB players as well to help round out the holes at the MLB level while also adding prospects in the pipeline (Chase, Guerra, Garza, Villar, Perez, Broxton and eventually Thames or Aguilar and a catcher). As this wave of top prospects grows and performs you figure out who to keep/extend and who to trade to add prospects to the system (you do that when other top prospects are ready - Hiura, Ray, Clark, Diaz, Erceg, Bickford, Peralta). Drafting well will be a part of this too and he'll no doubt use FA to a certain extent where it makes sense. Once you get to the point you're very competitive at the MLB level then you can use top prospects as trade bait to nail down that final piece or two needed for that deep playoff run.

 

Like Theo said in July - the best farm system you have is your MLB team. Those are the guys that bring the big returns to build your future MLB team. But you can't trade those MLB players if you don't give the prospects the opportunity build value at that level.

[Boomer5]

The Rebuild will be complete when the young guys we acquired become elite major leaguers

 

Santana and Hader are on their way. Brinson is very highly rated. Hiura looks like the real deal. Arcia and Shaw are keepers. Davies and Knebel are young guys we like. Though maybe not in the roles they are in now. Knebel doesn't perform like a closer and Davies is a solid number 4 not a number 2.

 

Clark, Ray, Diaz, Bickford, Dubon, Nottingham do not look like guys who will be much at the MLB level

but it's still early.

 

The trade deadline was an interesting barometer. Either DS didn't think the MLB team he put together was worth helping what he believed was a futile effort to catch the Cubs, or the prospects he acquired not named Brinson aren't valuable enough to generate much interest.

[Ennder]

I'd disagree with the placeholder thing.

 

Pina

Thames

Arcia

Shaw

All three OF

Hernan

Ace Chanderson

Jimmy

Hader

Knebel

 

That's a solid core, keeping in mind we have plenty more coming up soon that will not only join the core but push the bar higher.

 

 

I don't consider Braun, Thames, Perez or Anderson part of the teams future most likely. Those are all guys I expect to finish their contracts and be gone or just be traded at some point. Brinson and Hader are part of the future but they aren't regulars right now and aren't being placed in the impact roles they will be going on. Out of our regular starting impact players right now I think you have 5-7 guys who are going to stick around. I did forget about Pina so that is one more than i was thinking of.

[MKEguy]

I'd disagree with the placeholder thing.

 

Pina

Thames

Arcia

Shaw

All three OF

Hernan

Ace Chanderson

Jimmy

Hader

Knebel

 

That's a solid core, keeping in mind we have plenty more coming up soon that will not only join the core but push the bar higher.

 

 

I don't consider Braun, Thames, Perez or Anderson part of the teams future most likely. Those are all guys I expect to finish their contracts and be gone or just be traded at some point. Brinson and Hader are part of the future but they aren't regulars right now and aren't being placed in the impact roles they will be going on. Out of our regular starting impact players right now I think you have 5-7 guys who are going to stick around. I did forget about Pina so that is one more than i was thinking of.

 

True, those won't be here when our high A guys are up, but the rebuild is coming along quicker than expected. I was adding them to the list in reference to next year and the year after.

[3and2Fastball]

The trade deadline was an interesting barometer. Either DS didn't think the MLB team he put together was worth helping what he believed was a futile effort to catch the Cubs, or the prospects he acquired not named Brinson aren't valuable enough to generate much interest.

 

Or, Stearns values the prospects we have higher than what we could have gotten back for them

[monty57]

The Rebuild will be complete when the young guys we acquired become elite major leaguers

 

 

I don't know if Stearns will ever view us as being in any particular stage (i.e. rebuild, "win now") or as anything to ever be "complete."

 

I think that as long as Stearns is GM and Attanasio trusts him, we will always continue to look for ways to infuse talent into the system at all levels. We added MLB pieces when we have not been expected to win at the MLB level, and we will trade away guys from the MLB roster when we are expected to win. Stearns seems to be very "big picture," so he will continue to try to add value to the entire franchise, not just the current MLB team. No one is perfect, but I'm kind of fascinated by how Stearns works.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The Rebuild will be complete when the young guys we acquired become elite major leaguers

 

 

I don't know if Stearns will ever view us as being in any particular stage (i.e. rebuild, "win now") or as anything to ever be "complete."

 

I think that as long as Stearns is GM and Attanasio trusts him, we will always continue to look for ways to infuse talent into the system at all levels. We added MLB pieces when we have not been expected to win at the MLB level, and we will trade away guys from the MLB roster when we are expected to win. Stearns seems to be very "big picture," so he will continue to try to add value to the entire franchise, not just the current MLB team. No one is perfect, but I'm kind of fascinated by how Stearns works.

 

This.

 

I stand by the idea that the flurry of relief pitching trades is part of this. There was an opportunity to move guys at high prices, and Stearns took it. I get that it left the bullpen pretty bare, but thinking of the great run of talent he got for Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress is just crazy. And I don't think it's crazy to think that those three trades are one gigantic reason why the relief market was down this year.

 

If that exemplifies what we're in for moving forward, I'm pretty thrilled. Opportunistic seems like the right word. Obviously, I hope the Brewers catch the Cubs by winning about 15 in a row, but I'm looking forward to this offseason. I think it will be one where we find out a lot about the plan to sustainably compete near- and long-term. DS is a fun GM to watch.

[Lathund]

The Rebuild will be complete when the young guys we acquired become elite major leaguers

 

 

I don't know if Stearns will ever view us as being in any particular stage (i.e. rebuild, "win now") or as anything to ever be "complete."

 

I think that as long as Stearns is GM and Attanasio trusts him, we will always continue to look for ways to infuse talent into the system at all levels. We added MLB pieces when we have not been expected to win at the MLB level, and we will trade away guys from the MLB roster when we are expected to win. Stearns seems to be very "big picture," so he will continue to try to add value to the entire franchise, not just the current MLB team. No one is perfect, but I'm kind of fascinated by how Stearns works.

 

I also believe that this is what Stearns will try to do, at least I certainly hope so as I think that's the right approach to take for a chance at sustained success, as opposed to the rebuilding->win now cycle.

[Ennder]

 

The trade deadline was an interesting barometer. Either DS didn't think the MLB team he put together was worth helping what he believed was a futile effort to catch the Cubs, or the prospects he acquired not named Brinson aren't valuable enough to generate much interest.

 

It has to be really hard for you as a fan with this completely glass half empty approach you have to the franchise. Stearns didn't want to give up pieces he finds highly valuable for a small increase in our chances to win a world series. That doesn't mean our prospects all stink and it doesn't mean he thinks our odds of catching the Cubs are futile. Quintana and Gray are the big controllable pieces that were moved and neither of them look like that big of upgrades over what we already have given their peripherals, health history etc. We easily could still trade for a Kinsler or Verlander type this month if things look more favorable.

[monty57]

 

The trade deadline was an interesting barometer. Either DS didn't think the MLB team he put together was worth helping what he believed was a futile effort to catch the Cubs, or the prospects he acquired not named Brinson aren't valuable enough to generate much interest.

 

It has to be really hard for you as a fan with this completely glass half empty approach you have to the franchise. Stearns didn't want to give up pieces he finds highly valuable for a small increase in our chances to win a world series. That doesn't mean our prospects all stink and it doesn't mean he thinks our odds of catching the Cubs are futile. Quintana and Gray are the big controllable pieces that were moved and neither of them look like that big of upgrades over what we already have given their peripherals, health history etc. We easily could still trade for a Kinsler or Verlander type this month if things look more favorable.

 

Not to mention that I keep hearing how relievers' value is so much greater in "today's game," even to the extent that some believe that Hader will be more valuable if he remains a reliever than if he joins the rotation, but people say we made no moves when we picked up one of the better closers in the game this year to be Knebel's setup guy. We now have a pretty dominant late relief crew. We just need our offense to remember that they're actually pretty good and then we have a shot at taking the division.

[Humans Need Water]

Clark, Ray, Diaz, Bickford, Dubon, Nottingham do not look like guys who will be much at the MLB level

but it's still early.

 

The trade deadline was an interesting barometer. Either DS didn't think the MLB team he put together was worth helping what he believed was a futile effort to catch the Cubs, or the prospects he acquired not named Brinson aren't valuable enough to generate much interest.

First part - why?

 

Second part - why are those the only two options that make sense?

[LouisEly]

Getting back to the original topic, the next step of the winning formula is to use this offseason to move some guys from positions of depth. There won't be a roster crunch after this offseason, but there will be next offseason.

 

I've posted before about the ridiculous OF depth in the system, particularly CF (Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, T. Clark, Ray, Z. Clark, and to a lesser extent Stokes, T. Taylor, and Cordell was a CF until the Brewers acquired him; then add in corner OFs Braun and Santana). Maybe not this past trade deadline, but this offseason they need to figure out a way to parlay some of that into some upgrades.

 

The Brewers don't have any glaring weaknesses that don't have upper-level prospects ready to step in. Debate Villar, but you have Dubon at AAA, and then there is Hader, Woodruff, and in a year or so Ortiz and Burnes to shore up SP. But I do think they should take a few of those prospects and package them with current players to upgrade at positions (2B, SP, RP).

 

What I think will happen is that Stearns will look to move some guys who have some value but not necessarily room on this team (Broxton, Garza, Jungmann, Wilkerson). Recycle those guys for some A-ball talent that doesn't need to be protected for a couple of years, or package them with other players for upgrades. Those guys aren't stars, but they are productive players at cheap or league minimum salaries, and that has value in the market.

[monty57]

I agree, LouisEly, although I think Broxton's value to some extent is yet to be determined and I think that's why he's going to be our starting CF the rest of this year. He could go on one of his hot streaks, ending the season with an OPS over .800 with a bunch of HR and SB. If that's the case, he could net a good return this offseason. Or, he could be cold, ending with a batting average around .200 and an OPS in the low .700s, in which case he would have significantly lower value to a rebuild team looking at his potential. Either way, I think he will be traded because of our "logjam." Next year will be Braun, Brinson, Santana with Phillips either our 4th OF or sitting in AAA waiting for an injury.

 

Garza is another question mark. We could trade him this offseason and get an okay return for him if he continues to pitch at the level he has this year (and if he can get/stay healthy). That's the same reason we may decide to hold onto him for another year, as he's a solid mid-rotation starter who could help us next year. Ideally, we'll have enough confidence in our other guys to be able to trade away Garza for youth, so it will be interesting to see which way we go.

 

As you mentioned with guys like Jungmann and Wilkerson, I think you're right. The decent players who don't have a clear shot with the Brewers but could play elsewhere will probably be used in trades. Hopefully we can always keep a strong farm, so this will always be the case. Plant the seeds, tend the crops, keep the cream of the crop for yourself and sell off the rest of the yield for help elsewhere.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Quintana and Gray are the big controllable pieces that were moved and neither of them look like that big of upgrades over what we already have given their peripherals, health history etc. .

 

Yup.

 

People are still talking about trading for a starter, or that we didn't trade for a starter, and this is the part that people are overlooking. Sonny Gray just isn't that much better (if at all) than how our guys are performing *right now*. Nelson and Anderson are pitching well (well....... Anderson was), Suter is pitching well, and his peripherals support that he's not just faking it. Garza is pitching well. Davies is pitching well. Starter is the one spot on the team where it just didn't make sense to give up assets to get things that we already had. (Starting pitching)

 

The Brewers (like every team!) have a finite number of prospects and assets, and when they start dealing from those positions of strength to get things they don't really need at this moment in time (starting pitching), then when they need a 2B, or a few relievers, or a starter next year, or a catcher, or SOMETHING, those in demand assets they have now will be something they wish they didn't burn up to get a pitcher they didn't need.

[BillMilton]

Next step seems to be contracts for Shaw, Nelson. Only 3B depth in system is de Jesus.

[pacopete4]

Next step seems to be contracts for Shaw, Nelson. Only 3B depth in system is de Jesus.

 

Isn't Jacob Gatewood a 3B?

[BillMilton]

Just to AA today. Played SS, 3B, lately 1B.