Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"

[Oxy]

Zack Greinke is still better than all of those guys.

[A Swing and A Drive]

We're in a different era now. Baseball is trending younger, including top flight pitching. 2006 might as well be 1976, it was a completely different era.

 

Top 15 Pitchers now: Fulmer is 24, Strasburg is 28, Archer is 28, Duffy is 28, deGrom is 28, Keuchel is 29, Stroman is 26, Jose Fernandez would be 25. Half of them under 30, trending younger

 

Top 16-30 Pitchers now: McCullers is 23, Leake is 29, Taijuan Walker is 24, Jesse Hahn is 27, Bundy is 24, Quintana is 28, Triggs is 28, Carlos Martinez is 25, Eduardo Rodriguez is 24, Severino is 23, Jerad Eickoff is 26. 11 of 15 players from Top 16-30 are under 30

 

10 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 26 or younger

17 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 28 or younger

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12664&position=P

 

Almost every one of the pitchers you listed as Top 16-30 are VERY inconsistent. Quintana is the only one I'd consider to have anywhere near a playoff caliber ACE type track record and he's 28. You pretty much illistrated my point.

[pacopete4]

To further prove that Starting Pitchers are in the midst of their prime closer to 30 years out I went back 10 years to 2006.

 

Top 13 starting pitchers of 2006

1. Johan Santana, 27

2. Roy Halladay, 29

3. Ben Sheets, 27

4. Randy Johnson, 42

5. Pedro Martinez, 34

6. Jake Peavy, 24

7. Andy Pettite, 33

8. Rich Harden, 23

9. Jason Schmidt, 33

10. King Felix, 20

11. Brandon Webb, 27

12. Mark Prior, 23

13. John Smoltz, 38

 

The average age came out to 29.2, almost identical to the Top 13 pitchers of 2016.

 

What are you using to define the 'top' starting pitchers? Randy Johnson had an ERA of 5.00 in 2006. Take him out and your number drops from 29.2 to 28.1.

 

 

Maybe I shouldn't of laughed, but I did. I think he's just finding the oldest, dustiest players he can with name recognition and hoping people buy it. Pitchers primes are not 30.

[3and2Fastball]

Almost every one of the pitchers you listed as Top 16-30 are VERY inconsistent. Quintana is the only one I'd consider to have anywhere near a playoff caliber ACE type track record and he's 28. You pretty much illistrated my point.

 

Going based on Fangraphs rankings for Pitchers WAR right now. What formula are you using? 2015 All-Star rosters? Sincerely asking. Doesn't matter what formula you plug in, FIP, ERA+, BABIP, the top pitchers are trending younger

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0

[Oxy]

We're in a different era now. Baseball is trending younger, including top flight pitching. 2006 might as well be 1976, it was a completely different era.

 

Top 15 Pitchers now: Fulmer is 24, Strasburg is 28, Archer is 28, Duffy is 28, deGrom is 28, Keuchel is 29, Stroman is 26, Jose Fernandez would be 25. Half of them under 30, trending younger

 

Top 16-30 Pitchers now: McCullers is 23, Leake is 29, Taijuan Walker is 24, Jesse Hahn is 27, Bundy is 24, Quintana is 28, Triggs is 28, Carlos Martinez is 25, Eduardo Rodriguez is 24, Severino is 23, Jerad Eickoff is 26. 11 of 15 players from Top 16-30 are under 30

 

10 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 26 or younger

17 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 28 or younger

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12664&position=P

 

Almost every one of the pitchers you listed as Top 16-30 are VERY inconsistent. Quintana is the only one I'd consider to have anywhere near a playoff caliber ACE type track record and he's 28. You pretty much illistrated my point.

 

I think both sides have a point here. If you take all pitchers 26 years old and under, there might be one guy who is considered an ace. Further, it is difficult to predict which pitchers of the dozens of guys 26 and younger will be an ace when they are 29. However, if you look at all the 28/29 year olds in the league, it is much easier to predict their next 2 or 3 years of production. Perhaps they fall off slightly from their 28 year old peak, but they are usually still aces at 31/32.

[A Swing and A Drive]

 

I think both sides have a point here. If you take all pitchers 26 years old and under, there might be one guy who is considered an ace. Further, it is difficult to predict which pitchers of the dozens of guys 26 and younger will be an ace when they are 29. However, if you look at all the 28/29 year olds in the league, it is much easier to predict their next 2 or 3 years of production. Perhaps they fall off slightly from their 28 year old peak, but they are usually still aces at 31/32.

 

This is a fair assessment. Some pitchers have their peak seasons between 23-27 years old, but it's the true 200+ IP Top-of-the-Rotation starters who can sustain their prime from 28-33 years old.

 

Brewer fans may remember thinking that Yovani Gallardo was a shiny new "ACE" for our contending team in 2008, ripe from the minor leagues with one MLB season of 110 Ip under his belt. Yo was only 22 in 2008. He simply didn't have the MLB experience or consistency yet to head a playoff caliber rotation. Without CC (who was 28 that summer BTW), Brewers have little chance at the playoffs that year, even if Yovani was healthy the whole season.

 

Yovani had his peak career seasons at 25 and 26 years old. Those are the only 2 years of his career where he had over 200 IP. He's now still only 31 years old and his career is likely barely hanging on. I would say that Yovani never really reached his ceiling of a true ACE, mostly due to the fact that he could not sustain his consistency.

 

And those are the type of pitchers that are the greatest commodity in baseball. The trade market for these types of pitchers prove it every July.

[Ennder]

Most pitchers peak somewhere between 26 and 28 and the peak lasts some random number of years. It is very rare for a pitchers peak year to be age 30 or 31 though. They might stay good through that age range, but it isn't their peak. Signing pitchers over 30 to any type of long contract is very risky. It paid off for the Cubs last season but just as often it doesn't work.

 

But again their is no one way to win a World Series. Some teams like the Royals do it with bad starting pitching but a good bullpen. Some like the most recent Giants team just leans heavily on one super ace. There isn't a script to this though having a decent bullpen seems to be a pretty important piece of the pie.

[DoubleSwitch]

Like others have said, pitchers age even earlier than hitters. If you think of a prototypical front-line starter as someone who throws hard and strikes a lot of guys out, those skills peak in the mid to early 20s. Guys like Woodruff and Hader are probably at their peak velocity levels right now and when they hit the majors that will only trend downwards. Of course other skills like secondary pitches and control peak a bit later, but still well before a guy hits 30. It's only a very special few pitchers who remain above average starters into their mid 30's and that's why we remember them so highly.

[danzig6767]

In 2011, when the Cards knocked us out of the playoffs, they won while pulling their starter quite often before the 5th inning. A rotation needs to be good enough to make the playoffs, but then a pen can take over

And the Royals made it to the World Series in back to back years with a mediocre rotation, but a great bullpen.

 

Boston won their last title on the back of a great offense, Lester, and a good bullpen.

 

Cleveland last year was one game from a title with pretty much just Kluber and a very good pen in the playoffs.

 

It's a different game today when it comes to the playoffs. Gotta have enough starting pitching to simply make the playoffs, but once there, a bullpen is as important or more to keep advancing. It does help though to have at least one really good starter to go with an upper tier pen.

 

I think this is why so many teams are trying to load up on the bullpen. Given how hard it is to develop, sign, and/or trade for really good starters, many teams view trying to build a great bullpen as a different option. Try getting 3-4 hard throwing guys who can come out of the pen with a quality ERA/WHIP/K-BB ratio and let them take over after the 5th or 6th inning in the playoffs vs trying to have multiple starters go 7 innings or longer.

[LouisEly]

Your opening premise is wrong. Most pitchers peak before 30. You also don't need to elite starters to win a World Series. There is no one right path.

Agree with the second point, disagree that pitchers peak before 30. Look back at the World Series winning teams over the last two decades. The average age of the pitching staff of those teams is ~30.

 

There are a few exceptions, most notably the 2003 Marlins, whose pitching staff had an average age of 26. But it likely cost/shortened the careers of Willis and Beckett.

 

Next is the 2010 Giants at 27.5; but that season may have shortened the careers of Cain and Lincecum.

 

Not a good idea to have pitchers under the age of 27 throwing the number of innings that are required to get through October. How many of the pitcher burnouts in their early 30's were caused by throwing too many innings in a season early in their careers?

[LouisEly]

And getting back to the title of the thread, my answer would be stop spending 1st round picks on athletic toolsy outfielders with a questionable hit tool over pitchers.

 

(*ducks and runs for cover*)

[brewcrewdue80]

If you took the median of 2006 the age is 27. I cant believe Kershaw is 29 during last year?

Edit

Hed have been 28 for all of 16. So are there other ages wrong? Birthdays that happened September to now?

[MKEguy]

In regards to the rebuild, does anyone see DS signing a monster deal?

 

Dallas Kuechel will be a FA in 1.5 years and will be 31

Same with Harper, but he'll be 21 by then. (How do I make that blue?)

 

My pipe dream is for DS to make a Scherzer type signing, where the dude continues his peak and gets even better. I understand it's an anomaly, but that's got to be one the best Big FA signings in recent history. He's been the best pitcher in baseball for a bit now.

 

Looking at history, most huge signs would weigh us down for the last half of the contract.

 

What's the next big step? A huge FA signing? Does DS trade a

Plenty of top kids for an ace with a few years left? Does he let things play out and pull a DM and sign a 4th SP when we're contending?

 

What do you see DS doing, as we are now in the next step of the rebuild?

[jerichoholicninja]

In regards to the rebuild, does anyone see DS signing a monster deal?

 

No.

 

We may have a lot of financially flexibility but blowing it all on one player would just be stupid. Especially when you consider the length of the contract a player getting that much is going to command.

[Ennder]

We are still in the first step of the rebuild imo. Until we start graduating a lot of young players from our minor league team to the major league team we are still in step 1. What this team is this year is just the placeholder guys mostly. A couple of them will get signed long term but most of this team is not part of the future.

[AKCheesehead]

I mean, yeah FA could be an option, as there's still going to be some financial flexibility. It's just hard to feel good about picking up older FAs after some of our recent tries at it. Looking at 2018 listing http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/ who would Stearns target? What would it take to sign Pineda or Chatwood?

[rickh150]

No big FA are a part of the rebuild. None. That is why getting TOR pitchers in a trade or developing are own are so important.

[MKEguy]

I'd disagree with the placeholder thing.

 

Pina

Thames

Arcia

Shaw

All three OF

Hernan

Ace Chanderson

Jimmy

Hader

Knebel

 

That's a solid core, keeping in mind we have plenty more coming up soon that will not only join the core but push the bar higher.

 

You mentioned locking some up. That's what I'm getting at... will Arcia, who I think is a top tier SS, get a 10 year deal or does DS dink and dunk his way through the next competitive phase?

 

I'm not disagreeing with the pitfalls of signing one person to a huge contract, I was asking HOW DS will navigate the competitive phase? I should have been more clear.

 

I was trying to start a conversation on HOW DS will navigate, now that we've seen him for a bit.

[MrTPlush]

I would be absolutely shell shocked if he doesn't sign at least one guy to an extension this offseason. That is one step to the post rebuild one should expect. I'd like to see Jimmy Nelson get extended. Considering the age he will hit FA he might be willing to work something out with us right now to get that payday as the gain from waiting might not be much for him(wouldn't get many years on FA market).

 

We shall see, but I think he gets something done with someone.

[OnaBadger58]

Brewers need to aquire SP through trades not FA. I'd much rather see what Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, etc. can do as opposed to signing Darvish or Arrieta to a 5 year 90+ million. The Brewers will be trying to emulate what the Rays did/are doing. The last thing this team needs is to be skipping steps of the rebuild by putting band aids on their weaknesses.

[monty57]

If there is a good SP who hits free agency around 27 years old, then I could see Stearns going after him. I doubt he'll make the four-year deals to 31-32 year-olds that we saw during Melvin's tenure. Unfortunately, most SP who are young & good get extended, so by the time good SP hit free agency they are too old for the Brewers to risk signing them to a "monster deal."

 

As to "the plan," I think we've built a decent core. I could see some extensions this offseason, and I think we'll see some trades out of areas of depth (OF). Free agency will probably be used mainly to fill in some holes, although Stearns likes to surprise with moves like the Thames signing.

[MKEguy]

Edit : I somehow copied and pasted my last post. Formatting is not my thing.

[dacbrewers]

Brewers need to aquire SP through trades not FA. I'd much rather see what Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, etc. can do as opposed to signing Darvish or Arrieta to a 5 year 90+ million. The Brewers will be trying to emulate what the Rays did/are doing. The last thing this team needs is to be skipping steps of the rebuild by putting band aids on their weaknesses.

 

You are exactly correct. Matt Arnold coming over from the Rays is going to have a big influence on what they do. He has a lot more experience than Stearns.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't think they must sign a big FA, or must trade for a SP, or must do anything. Circumstances will dictate all that. For all we know, starting pitching will be the strength of this team 3 years from now.

 

That's why it's dangerous to make big moves at this stage in the process. Everybody wanted a SP at the deadline, yet that's been the strongest part of the team. We need to know what we have in guys like Santana, Shaw, Arcia, Thames, Brinson, Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Suter, Hader, Brinson, etc.

 

Way too many variables, and short history with these guys- or short history of this kind of success.

[rickh150]

I predict your predicted offense to be quite below average.

 

I agree with this. It's not realistic to believe every top prospect in their system will pan out and be contributing starters in 3 years. I disagree with setting 2020 as the target and not deviating from that. What if somehow they remain hot for the next month and a half and are still at the top of the standings? I know this is also a bit unrealistic, but who knows...what if that happens? I know I'm in the minority on this message board when it comes to this train of thought, but I say you sacrifice some of those prospects, bolster the starting rotation and make a run. I would rather do that than hope that these unknown commodities in the farm system can put us in the same position 3 years from now.

 

If they start to falter this year (which is likely), but come back next year and in our contending position in July 2018, then go for it then. My belief is that basically any time you are in playoff position in July, regardless of what your expectations were at the start of the season or where you are in the "rebuilding" phase, you should be looking to make trades to win now. Again, I know that's not a popular thought on this board and many will argue that you can't build a consistent contender that way. I understand that argument, but I also think there is way too much confidence put in some of the prospects when the reality is that you are lucky if 50% of those prospects hit and that there is no guarantee that you will be a consistent contender by waiting on the farm system to mature. I don't have a problem with a 3-5 year rebuilding plan if during the "rebuilding" years the team never contends, but if the team has some unexpected success in one of the rebuilding years, don't blow that opportunity.

 

Agree with what Patrick said in May... we still have the opportunity to pick up spare parts for dirt prices thru the waiver wire. Still an opportunity to make playoffs, if not division champs then wild card.