Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"

[A Swing and A Drive]

Teams simply cannot win a World Series without top level MLB starting pitching, IMHO.

 

It also takes most pitchers until they are close to 30 years old to reach their prime, while most hitters reach their prime around age 27.

 

That translates to pitchers not being truly great, 200+IP ACES until AFTER they are no longer controlled by small market teams like the Brewers.

 

The formula for a winning recipe is to load up on young, cheap hitting prospects and pair that will a couple of TOP OF THE ROTATION type veteran starters.

 

If a small market team like the Brewers doesn't want to risk a long term deal on a great Free Agent pitcher or that pitcher simply doesn't want to sign with a small market, hitter friendly Milwaukee team, then when the time is right I think Stearns will need to do what Melvin did in 2008 and 2011 and trade prospects for an elite starting pitcher rental or two, like Sabathia and Greinke.

 

The key to success is for the Brewers to at least find and develop a couple of young pitchers that can show value as #3-#5 starters.

 

For example a year 2020 contending Brewers club should look something like this:

(I included their age as of opening day 2020)

YOUR 2020 MILWAUKEE BREWERS!

 

C Jett Bandy (30) /Andrew Susac (30) *fun fact: Bandy and Susac were born 4 days apart

1B Eric Thames (34) *$7.5M option year

2B Isan Diaz (23)

3B Lucas Erceg (24)

SS Orlando Arcia (25)

LF Brett Phillips (25)

CF Lewis Brinson (25)

RF Corey Ray (25)

 

Bench

CI Jake Gatewood (24)

MI Mauricio Dubon (25)

OF Trent Clark (23)

OF Ryan Cordell (28)

 

Other prospect hitters who could emerge:

3B Gilbert Lara (22), OF Monte Harrison (24), OF Demi Orimoloye (23), C/1B Josh Nottingham (25), C Mario Feliciano (21), OF Clint Coulter (26), 3B Chad McClanahan (22)

 

SP1 PLAYOFF CALIBER ACE

SP2 ACE#2 or Veteran#2 playoff caliber starter

SP3 LHP Josh Hader (26)

SP4 RHP Luis Ortiz (24)

SP5 ONE (1) of the following needs to emerge:

 

RHP Brandon Woodruff (27), RHP Marcos Diplan (23), RHP Corbin Burnes (25), RHP Cody Ponce (25), RHP Jorge Lopez (27)

LHP Nathan Kirby (24), LHP Kodi Medeiros (23), RHP Phil Bickford (24), RHP Josh Pennington(24), RHP Devin Williams (25), RHP Taylor Williams (28)

 

Long Reliever: Someone from the group above

Middle: RHP Freddy Peralta (23)

Middle: RHP Trey Supak (23)

Setup: Veteran Lefty

Setup: RHP Jacob Barnes (29)

CLOSER: RHP Corey Knebel (28)

 

Valuable 2017-2020 Trade Chips

 

SS/2B Jonathan Villar

3B Travis Shaw

OF Domingo Santana

OF Keon Broxton

OF Ryan Braun

C Manny Pina

RHP Junior Guerra

RHP Zach Davies

RHP Jimmy Nelson

RHP Matt Garza

RHP Willy Peralta

Any bullpen arm that a contender will overpay for.

 

Also, any player that is drafted from College by the Brew Crew over the next couple of drafts will factor into this mix as well. Big hopes for the Brewers hitting the jackpot with the #9 overall pick this June.

 

Points of Discussion:

Your first reaction to this is probably that more of the Brewers pitching prospects will emerge. I beg to differ. The attrition rate on young minor league pitchers is very high. Also, Hader and Ortiz are no sure things themselves. So in my evaluation, I'll assume with to replace whichever of those fail, others will emerge. I'm simply not counting on very many starting pitchers from the Brewers current farm system to emerge as reliable starters on a championship caliber team. I feel it would be unwise to think otherwise, and to feel lucky if I am proven wrong.

 

The keys for this all to come together:

 

1. The Brewers MUST hit on their high draft picks over the next couple of seasons. Personally, I believe we need to find another pitcher with a similar ceiling as Josh Hader (at least a #3), in case Hader's control issues moves him to the bullpen. Worst case IMO: He's Andrew Miller-lite. Drafting a franchise-type middle of the order hitter would also be a welcome addition.

 

2. Stearns needs to package numerous players listed under VALUABLE 2017-2020 TRADE CHIPS at peak value and somehow turn them into Top of the Rotation Starting Pitching before the 2020 season. The players from this group that Stearns DOES NOT trade will hopefully remain key contributors to cover for any "failed" prospects my 2020 evaluation is counting on.

 

3. Depending on how things break, this timetable could move up a year to 2019, or move back a year until 2021. Fans hoping it comes together much sooner I think are setting the Brewers up for the FULL re-build not to come to completion. Simply look over the players ages for the 2020 season I have listed.

 

The exciting part is that if it is done correctly, the Brewers will be set up to contend from 2020-2022 at the minimum. I believe this is David Stearns goal and I have faith in him to stick to the plan.

 

This should also nicely work out to be the same timeframe where the Cubs prime window of dominance will be starting to close.

 

The wait will be worth it.

 

GO BREWERS!

 

Please share your thoughts on this.

[Oxy]

That took some work. Nice post.

 

Quibble: Brandon Phillips will be 38 in 2020.

[3and2Fastball]

Brandon Phillips at 25 playing LF!

 

The worst case scenario for Hader is much worse than Andrew Miller-lite.

 

Thames at 34 is somewhat unlikely to be a top flight 1B. I mean maybe but I just don't see it

 

In general I think the window of opportunity opens sooner, as soon as this year or next, which makes decisions even tougher

[A Swing and A Drive]

That took some work. Nice post.

 

Quibble: Brandon Phillips will be 38 in 2020.

 

Thanks.

 

Fixed.

 

Somewhat surprised Brandon will ONLY be 38 in 2020. Honestly, will be surprised if he's still in baseball. lol

 

And I agree the Hader's floor is worse than Andrew Miller-lite but I have confidence that he's a future big league contributor.

 

Personally, I think if the Brewers Front Office thinks they can contend any sooner than 2019, then I believe they could risk jeopardizing seeing the plan for a FULL REBUILD bear fruit.

[newrivervalley]

Great post. Can only argue that Woodruff, Nelson and Yungmann might surprise as quality starters.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree that Taylor Jungmann is a wildcard. He'll be 30 by 2020 and I would be happen if the Brewers simply just got ANYTHING of value for him at this point.

 

I did include the ENTIRE 2017 Brewers starting rotation under the "trade chip" section. This was not a mistake. I'm just not seeing it with this group, when it comes to playoff caliber talent. I could very well be wrong and possibly a couple of these guys remain with the team and contribute in 2020.

 

Personally, I like Davies the best out of the group to stabilize as at least a nice #5 MLB starter.

[Ennder]

Your opening premise is wrong. Most pitchers peak before 30. You also don't need to elite starters to win a World Series. There is no one right path.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Your opening premise is wrong. Most pitchers peak before 30. You also don't need to elite starters to win a World Series. There is no one right path.

 

I disagree with your first two points. I do agree that there is no one right path. However, given the state of the Brewers current MLB team and farm system, I believe it is the path they are on.

 

2016 Top SP with Ages

 

1. Clayton Kershaw, 29

2. Max Scherzer, 32

3. Madison Bumgarner, 27

4. Noah Syndergard, 24

5. Corey Kluber, 30

6. Chris Sale, 27

7. Jon Lester, 33

8. Johnny Cueto, 31

9. Yu Darvish, 30

10. Jake Arrieta, 31

11. Jacob deGrom, 28

12. Justin Verlander, 34

13. Cole Hamels, 33

 

That's an average age of 29.9 years old, with Noah Syndergaard the only player younger than 27.

[MrTPlush]

I predict your predicted offense to be quite below average. It features 3 starters and 3 bench players who would likely have little to no MLB experience. Then it features an average catching duo, an old 1B, a SS (IMO) that will never hit all that well, and Phillips with all the holes in his swing. Thats a whole lot of not good for one predicted line-up. You want a league minimum line-up with little experience and when you are competing that sounds like a formula for failure.

 

My other issue is you have too many (what should be then) upper level MiLB prospects in no mans land without starting spot. I just don't see us having our entire bench made up of inexperienced top prospects and I don't see us having that many legitimate pitchers floating around the minors.

 

In my opinion you need to insert some of those trade chip veterans back into your starting line-up and account for some veteran additions on the bench(at least one). Then to make it even more accurate you would need to predict some FA signings that are bound to happen to fill holes. You are too bull-ish on those players at A+ and below to be real contributors in 2020.

[DHonks]

In 2011, when the Cards knocked us out of the playoffs, they won while pulling their starter quite often before the 5th inning. A rotation needs to be good enough to make the playoffs, but then a pen can take over

[logan82]

Teams simply cannot win a World Series without top level MLB starting pitching, IMHO.

Exactly. In your opinion. Teams frequently make the playoffs with a less than stellar rotation and teams excel in the playoffs with a good bullpen. Starters are going fewer and fewer innings every year. A strong pen, especially in a short series with off days, is more important than a good rotation.

[adambr2]

Medeiros, Taylor Williams, and Bickford all seem like pen guys to me. Maybe Hader too. I think Woodruff has the best shot of that bunch including Hader to be a rotation fixture.

 

In the next 3 years I see this system cranking out a lot of power relievers and not too many starters. But that's not a terrible thing.

[FVBrewerFan]

Medeiros, Taylor Williams, and Bickford all seem like pen guys to me. Maybe Hader too. I think Woodruff has the best shot of that bunch including Hader to be a rotation fixture.

 

In the next 3 years I see this system cranking out a lot of power relievers and not too many starters. But that's not a terrible thing.

 

Diplan and Freddy Peralta could be two more of those guys. Pennington too. I see Woodruff, Ortiz, and Burnes being the best gets for "good enough" starters.

 

I agree good enough starters and elite bullpen is an easier and more realistic path for the Brewers.

[pacopete4]

Lots of fortune tellers around here. I love it. Even if I think you're writing, it's fun to think about.

 

I do agree with Ender. There are more than one way to do this. I think that's what I like about Stearns so far. He trades for young guys, prospect type high upside and then he goes and gets guys like Thames, Shaw, Broxton, etc.

[adambr2]

Medeiros, Taylor Williams, and Bickford all seem like pen guys to me. Maybe Hader too. I think Woodruff has the best shot of that bunch including Hader to be a rotation fixture.

 

In the next 3 years I see this system cranking out a lot of power relievers and not too many starters. But that's not a terrible thing.

 

Diplan and Freddy Peralta could be two more of those guys. Pennington too. I see Woodruff, Ortiz, and Burnes being the best gets for "good enough" starters.

 

I agree good enough starters and elite bullpen is an easier and more realistic path for the Brewers.

 

Those are guys I expect to stick as starters too. Woodruff, Ortiz, and Burnes. Everyone else among the pitching prospects I think will either wind up in the pen, or it's simply too early to tell, like Supak.

 

Power relievers are in such high trade demand that I wonder if it could actually become an organizational perennial farm reload plan to continue to flip relievers for prospects, even when we're contending, as long as we continue to crank them out.

Knebel could be next, as hard as it would be to part with him.

 

I know that seems a little extreme of a theory but this has served us well in recent years, giving us guys who are helping now like Shaw and Pina, as well as prospects like Brinson, Ortiz, and Cordell (+ Lucroy), and Bickford, Susac, Dubon, Pennington, and yet another prospect that is still to be named. That's quite a haul for pen arms.

 

Would be a great way to keep improving while still keeping the farm stocked, seems counterproductive to be buying and selling at the same time but if any GM would be creative enough to pull it off I think it'd be Stearns.

[Ennder]

Your opening premise is wrong. Most pitchers peak before 30. You also don't need to elite starters to win a World Series. There is no one right path.

 

I disagree with your first two points. I do agree that there is no one right path. However, given the state of the Brewers current MLB team and farm system, I believe it is the path they are on.

 

2016 Top SP with Ages

 

1. Clayton Kershaw, 29

2. Max Scherzer, 32

3. Madison Bumgarner, 27

4. Noah Syndergard, 24

5. Corey Kluber, 30

6. Chris Sale, 27

7. Jon Lester, 33

8. Johnny Cueto, 31

9. Yu Darvish, 30

10. Jake Arrieta, 31

11. Jacob deGrom, 28

12. Justin Verlander, 34

13. Cole Hamels, 33

 

That's an average age of 29.9 years old, with Noah Syndergaard the only player younger than 27.

 

Yes and that group as a whole were way more valuable 2 years ago. That group of pitchers peaked at around age 26 or 27. I couldn't find a single pitcher on that list who had his best season last year. All of their best years were 2 or 3 years ago. Verlander was the best example since it is a good 4+ years since he had a better year than last year though last year wasn't his best. Pitchers peak in their mid 20s. But the truth is only I'd say 2 of the past 6 season world series teams were won because of great starting pitching, it just ins't that important when it comes to winning it all.

[SomewhereInTime]

This doesn't make any sense. You're looking at three years from now and you don't have Santana, Broxton, Braun, Shaw, and Villar among others. Are you predicting us to non tender all of them and to have cut Braun by then? If you're predicting that all or some will be traded, then what did we trade for? I would think you'd at least look to get major league ready prospects, if not established major leaguers for them if you're planing on being ready to compete by 2020. I don't think a trade would work where you would trade all of them for an ace level pitcher.

 

What's more likely is there are some holdovers from this years roster, along with a few free agent signings, and a number of players traded for using a combination of prospects and players currently on the major league roster.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The majority of young starting pitchers struggle with consistency during their first couple of years in the big leagues.

(Current example: Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays or Julio Teheran, Braves)

 

The exceptions are a handful of elite ACES.

 

Most starting pitchers require a couple of full MLB seasons of experience before really making strides.

 

Hitters on the other hand can be very productive during their first couple of seasons in the league, still while under team control. The 2008 Milwaukee Brewers were a prime example of this.

(Current example: Cody Bellinger, Dodgers)

 

My main point is that the current well-regarded Brewers farm system is top heavy in offensive talent. Similar to how it was in 2006, when the Brewers had the #1 farm system in baseball.

 

2006 Brewers prospects

Note: A young Rickie Weeks and JJ Hardy had just graduated to the majors

1. Prince Fielder, 1B

2. Mark Rogers, RHP

3. Ryan Braun, 3B

4. Yovani Gallardo, RHP

5. Corey Hart, OF

6. Alcides Escobar, SS

7. Dana Eveland, LHP

8. Nelson Cruz, OF

9. Jose Capellan, RHP

10. Will Inman, RHP

Also in top 20

Hitters

OF Michael Brantley, OF Lorenzo Cain

Pitchers

LHP Zack Jackson, LHP Manny Parra,

RHP Ben Hendrickson, RHP Dennis Sarfarte, RHP Tim Dillard

 

Out of that farm system, it produced many productive young hitters

(Fielder, Braun, Hart, Escobar, Cruz, Brantley, Cain plus Weeks and Hardy)

and only one somewhat productive young pitcher

(Yovani Gallardo)

plus one comedian, lol

(Tim Dillard)

 

Yovani never developed into a true TOR starter like he seemed he would either. I'd say he peaked at a #2 for us, arguably only a playoff caliber #3

Eveland and Parra contributed somewhat but the rest of the pitchers were complete busts.

 

Regardless, that 2006 farm system afforded the Brewers about a 5-year window of true competitiveness (2008-2012). This gives us great hope for the 2019-2023 seasons. The invention of the 2nd wild card gives us an even a bigger window, I hope.

 

I will argue that not even our top prospect Brinson, has the franchise player ceiling that Braun and Fielder had. In fact, I think Braun, Fielder, and Gallardo were better prospects than anyone on our current list. This concerns me.

 

I suppose the main point of my post, however, is we can't expect many of our young pitching prospects to even reach their ceilings.

 

Instead, the Brewers at some point in the next couple of seasons, I feel, will need to acquire established, top of the rotation quality starting pitching.

 

With all due respect to Junior Guerra, we simply don't have that right now. I'd even argue that 2006 Yovani had a higher ceiling than any current pitcher in the Brewers system. Hopefully, a trade or the next couple drafts change that.

[A Swing and A Drive]

You're looking at three years from now and you don't have Santana, Broxton, Braun, Shaw, and Villar among others. Are you predicting us to non tender all of them and to have cut Braun by then? If you're predicting that all or some will be traded, then what did we trade for? I would think you'd at least look to get major league ready prospects, if not established major leaguers for them if you're planing on being ready to compete by 2020. I don't think a trade would work where you would trade all of them for an ace level pitcher.

 

What's more likely is there are some holdovers from this years roster, along with a few free agent signings, and a number of players traded for using a combination of prospects and players currently on the major league roster.

 

Your assessment is correct. Many of the players I listed under Valuable Trade Chips will remain as holdovers and fill in the spots on the major league roster where prospects flamed out or were themselves traded. However, since I didn't want to speculate on which ones Steans would trade/keep, I formated the 2020 lineup with mostly current prospects who I feel have the potential to be MLB starters by then. Free Agent signees and future draftees will also factor in of course.

 

The most exciting part of that grouping, is to consider what MLB ready/extablished players the Brewers could acquire using our potential trade chips. Trying to guess exactly who the Brewers acquire would be a whole other level of guesswork that I'll leave to you fellas. lol

[brewcrewdue80]

This isnt a winning formula to complete the rebuild. It may be the formula to ruin the franchise for another decade. At least with how you propose the lineup looks by 2020.

 

Take the idea that a TOR pitcher to acquire needs to be 30ish based on 16's top guys and avg. Age. The Brewers can easily control SPs til the age of 30. You're talking 7years meaning they have to be called up before the age of 23 to not be 30 at the end of of team control. Isnt Hader already passed that? How close is Woodruff?

We need a TOR pitcher at some point in this rebuild but this roster turnover you have by 2020 and the replacements of prospects many with worts so hard to believe they will all produce a winning offense currently.

Essentially its reading Future Pitcher potential on a scale of 1-10 a 3. But a position prospect potential on same scale a 9. Choosing that the hitters will succeed but pitchers wont to make this formula a win on your argument.

The fact you dont have Woodruff in the 2020 rotation when clearly at this point he's #1 of the pitching prospects to become a starter disproves this idea.

 

The winning formula is already in effect just based on the results in Stearns 1st two years. Just trust there will be a move made that acquires the need atop the rotation. It obviously was made for 1st and 3b this offseason making a glaring weakness a strength immediately.

[Patrick425]

I predict your predicted offense to be quite below average.

 

I agree with this. It's not realistic to believe every top prospect in their system will pan out and be contributing starters in 3 years. I disagree with setting 2020 as the target and not deviating from that. What if somehow they remain hot for the next month and a half and are still at the top of the standings? I know this is also a bit unrealistic, but who knows...what if that happens? I know I'm in the minority on this message board when it comes to this train of thought, but I say you sacrifice some of those prospects, bolster the starting rotation and make a run. I would rather do that than hope that these unknown commodities in the farm system can put us in the same position 3 years from now.

 

If they start to falter this year (which is likely), but come back next year and in our contending position in July 2018, then go for it then. My belief is that basically any time you are in playoff position in July, regardless of what your expectations were at the start of the season or where you are in the "rebuilding" phase, you should be looking to make trades to win now. Again, I know that's not a popular thought on this board and many will argue that you can't build a consistent contender that way. I understand that argument, but I also think there is way too much confidence put in some of the prospects when the reality is that you are lucky if 50% of those prospects hit and that there is no guarantee that you will be a consistent contender by waiting on the farm system to mature. I don't have a problem with a 3-5 year rebuilding plan if during the "rebuilding" years the team never contends, but if the team has some unexpected success in one of the rebuilding years, don't blow that opportunity.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I don't think the Brewers are going to pass up any opportunities to contend, including if they can continue playing great ball this summer.

 

However, I don't think there is anybody that thinks our rebuilding efforts are complete and it's time to trade in all our chips and go for it this year either.

 

If we have patience and wait for the rebuild to come to full fruition, the fruit it could bear would be the Brewers first ever World Series Championship.

 

If we jump the gun too much, we could risk peaking as simply contenders for the 2nd wild card for a couple of seasons before our window starts to close.

 

There are obviously many variable to all this, but it still is dangerous to start to put the cart before the horse.

[A Swing and A Drive]

To further prove that Starting Pitchers are in the midst of their prime closer to 30 years out I went back 10 years to 2006.

 

Top 13 starting pitchers of 2006

1. Johan Santana, 27

2. Roy Halladay, 29

3. Ben Sheets, 27

4. Randy Johnson, 42

5. Pedro Martinez, 34

6. Jake Peavy, 24

7. Andy Pettite, 33

8. Rich Harden, 23

9. Jason Schmidt, 33

10. King Felix, 20

11. Brandon Webb, 27

12. Mark Prior, 23

13. John Smoltz, 38

 

The average age came out to 29.2, almost identical to the Top 13 pitchers of 2016.

[adambr2]

To further prove that Starting Pitchers are in the midst of their prime closer to 30 years out I went back 10 years to 2006.

 

Top 13 starting pitchers of 2006

1. Johan Santana, 27

2. Roy Halladay, 29

3. Ben Sheets, 27

4. Randy Johnson, 42

5. Pedro Martinez, 34

6. Jake Peavy, 24

7. Andy Pettite, 33

8. Rich Harden, 23

9. Jason Schmidt, 33

10. King Felix, 20

11. Brandon Webb, 27

12. Mark Prior, 23

13. John Smoltz, 38

 

The average age came out to 29.2, almost identical to the Top 13 pitchers of 2016.

 

What are you using to define the 'top' starting pitchers? Randy Johnson had an ERA of 5.00 in 2006. Take him out and your number drops from 29.2 to 28.1.

[3and2Fastball]

We're in a different era now. Baseball is trending younger, including top flight pitching. 2006 might as well be 1976, it was a completely different era.

 

Top 15 Pitchers now: Fulmer is 24, Strasburg is 28, Archer is 28, Duffy is 28, deGrom is 28, Keuchel is 29, Stroman is 26, Jose Fernandez would be 25. Half of them under 30, trending younger

 

Top 16-30 Pitchers now: McCullers is 23, Leake is 29, Taijuan Walker is 24, Jesse Hahn is 27, Bundy is 24, Quintana is 28, Triggs is 28, Carlos Martinez is 25, Eduardo Rodriguez is 24, Severino is 23, Jerad Eickoff is 26. 11 of 15 players from Top 16-30 are under 30

 

10 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 26 or younger

17 of the Top 30 Pitchers are 28 or younger

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12664&position=P