Reds offer Cozart and Storen

[ebmackenzie]

Reds call wanting to package Cowart and Storen to Milwaukee and Mark Attanasio looks at you and says to get it done.

 

Who do you offer? What do you do with Arcia?

[Oxy]

I'd wait. If Cozart is still OPSing .900+ on the 4th of July and Arcia is still sub .650 and we are still in playoff position, then those guys could help the team.

 

I think it's more likely that Cozart comes back to earth and Arcia slowly improves, which means that acquiring a 32 year old SS would be kind of dumb. Same story for Storen. They just don't improve the club enough in either the short term or the longer term to make much sense. We don't need more offense.

[JohnBriggs12]

Almost all of the top teams have top level SS, so the market for rental of Cozart should be pretty soft unless Russell continues to struggle in Chicago. If the price is low, having another veteran bat with a good glove in the lineup for the stretch might be a pretty savvy move. Arcia is still "the guy" going forward obviously but if's he's still around .225 come All Star break and the Brewers are right there in the hunt, I'd certainly think about it. Plus taking Cozart off the Reds who the Brewers play 9 times in August/Sept. would not be a bad thing either.

[jerichoholicninja]

Not much of anything.

 

Cozart is a free agent this offseason and hasn't hit outside of this year. Storen would probably be an upgrade to the bullpen but he's been up and down the last few years and is just as likely to be as bad as what we have now.

[JosephC]

Storen is off to a hot start but I think he would hold minimal trade value. When looking past the ERA there are some real red flags that I think would have a significant impact on his value. His fastball velocity is a full 3 MPH slower than it was just two years ago. And his xFIP is 4.47 which indicates there is a big negative adjustment coming to his ERA. I wouldn't be interested in trading for him at all but if Attanasio insisted I'd explain there is no way the Brewers should go over a "role player" type prospect for him.

 

Cozart currently sits at .351/.432/.595/1.027. His 3-year split total (2014-2016) sits at .240/.291/.376/.667. Where he will end up is anyone's guess. I'll give him the benefit of a doubt and take a guess and say .290/.360/.480/.840. If he achieves that, he would have to roughly slash .270/.337/.440/.777 the rest of the way. A fair comparison to those numbers is Brandon Crawford in 2016 and Crawford's average WAR value between Baseball America and Fangraphs was 5.15. However, Crawford's advanced defensive statistics were through the roof last year, and while Cozart is a plus defender there is no doubt that any WAR value assigned to him in 2017 based on Crawford's 2016 should be lowered because of the defensive aspect. Personally, if Cozart is hitting .270/.337/.440/.777 over a full season I'd put him as being around a 4.3 WAR player and since the season is 25% gone I think he's good for 3.2 - 3.3 WAR the rest of the way. Since it's a <1 year rental, I'd throw out the surplus value aspect of it. I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Reds to demand one "back of the top 100" type prospect or two solid "organizational top 10" prospects for Cozart. Packaging him along with Storen likely would get them that type of return.

[ebmackenzie]

They are both free agents and yes up and down. Cowart's WAR is 7th highest in MLB and a huge uptick vs Arcia's WAR. I think Storen won't match ODrake's huge WHIP on his worst day...

 

VRoache was sold to LAD...who else is on the outs, maybe a pitcher that is getting passed by Supek, Burnes, FPeralta, or Ponce.

 

Coultier, YRivera, and take all of the CIN salaries. I can live without those two and send Arcia down for a few months and move Dubon up after that.

[trwi7]

Reds call wanting to package Cowart and Storen to Milwaukee and Mark Attanasio looks at you and says to get it done.

 

Who do you offer?

 

I tell Attanasio to shut the hell up and back the hell off.

[brewcrewdue80]

Haha. Yeah Stearns waves off Mark A's demand with an eyeroll and reminder who's responsible for this team being here Year 2 of a 5year rebuild.

[Austin Tatious]

Arcia is hitting in the .230's now, but his OPS is anemic. I think he will be an adequate hitter when he fills out. He's young, and I think will get stronger as he gets to be 24-25. As it is, his bat is fairly quick. He just needs some more muscle.

 

In the meantime, as long as he doesn't collapse, he needs playing time to develop and get the necessary experience so he can improve. You've got to walk before you run. That's the big picture I'd follow.

[Greenleaf1]

I think Arcia is too young to give up on and has real potential to develop at the plate (hell, look at Cozart and how long it took him).

 

I think if Melvin were still in charge, it wouldn't surprise me to see a straight up trade Cozart for Arcia. I think if Arcia had another year under his belt and was still performing the way he is, I'd consider this deal, but renting Cozart for half a year just seems too risky to give up anything of value for him.

 

If the market on him softens considerably and a couple prospects toward the bottom of our top 30 could get it done, I'd consider it, but not sure who I'd want those prospects to be to make it worthwhile.

[Warning Track Power]

Arcia is hitting in the hardest spot in the order right now and is gradually showing improvement on his offensive approach. If the Brewers wanted to give him a little boost to see better pitches, move him to #2 in the order in front of Braun and Thames and see what he looks like.

 

Acquiring Cozart and starting him over Arcia is a completely backwards way of thinking for a rebuilding team.

[MrTPlush]

I think if Melvin were still in charge, it wouldn't surprise me to see a straight up trade Cozart for Arcia.

 

...come on now. That is a ridiculous statement.

[MrTPlush]

If it was July 31st, we are in 1st place, and the Reds don't have a strong market for either player maybe we could swing a deal. You might have to give up a little bit, but if we are strongly in contention it would be a worthwhile sacrifice in my opinion. If we are treading WC contention I probably don't make such a move.

 

If Arcia is still hitting so poorly come July 31st he deserves a demotion and Cozart won't really be stealing his job.

[HighHeat19]

This thread is like asking if the NFL is going to expand to North Korea.

[Oxy]

This thread is like asking if the NFL is going to expand to North Korea.

 

Yeah. You can't do major deals within the division. Bench moves, minor league roster filler moves, sending veterans back home a la Aramis Ramirez-to-Pittsburgh type moves are fine, but this one is a little too risky for both sides.

 

That said, if the Brewers, Reds, and Pirates all trade with each other in order to keep the Cubs or Cards from winning the division...

[adambr2]

The whole 'don't trade within your division ' is one of those dumb unwritten baseball traditions that needs to go IMO.

 

Why would you limit yourself to outside your division just out of fear of what the trade will do to help your rivals? Furthermore, why would you be afraid of that at all? Isn't the whole point of trading the belief that you are helping yourself ? Help yourself the most, worry about making your team the best you can make it regardless of what that means doing and let the other GMs worry about their own.

[superfly]

Why on earth would we want to trade our 22 year old potential All Star SS (someday) for a 31 year old journeyman SS and a bullpen arm?

[pacopete4]

Why on earth would we want to trade our 22 year old potential All Star SS (someday) for a 31 year old journeyman SS and a bullpen arm?

 

Because most live in the grass is always greener elsewhere world.

[brewcrewdue80]

Why on earth would we want to trade our 22 year old potential All Star SS (someday) for a 31 year old journeyman SS and a bullpen arm?

 

Because no patience. The hate for Arcia because he looks like a rookie while still in his rookie year. Cant have that at 22. Its .950 OPS or move on. Oh but wait, is that right? With Villar and Santana its the lacking of GG defense. Brinson, Perez, Dubon are all going to be these requirements. AS or bust!

[MrTPlush]

Why on earth would we want to trade our 22 year old potential All Star SS (someday) for a 31 year old journeyman SS and a bullpen arm?

 

Because no patience. The hate for Arcia because he looks like a rookie while still in his rookie year. Cant have that at 22. Its .950 OPS or move on. Oh but wait, is that right? With Villar and Santana its the lacking of GG defense. Brinson, Perez, Dubon are all going to be these requirements. AS or bust!

 

No one even proposed trading Arcia for Cozart. It was one poster who was likely a massive Doug Melvin hater saying that is what Melvin would do.

[Oxy]

Why on earth would we want to trade our 22 year old potential All Star SS (someday) for a 31 year old journeyman SS and a bullpen arm?

 

Because no patience. The hate for Arcia because he looks like a rookie while still in his rookie year. Cant have that at 22. Its .950 OPS or move on. Oh but wait, is that right? With Villar and Santana its the lacking of GG defense. Brinson, Perez, Dubon are all going to be these requirements. AS or bust!

 

Well, when you come up within a year or two of Corey Seager, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Manny Machado, Carlos Correa, and displace guys like Jonathan Villar and Jean Segura... expectations might be a little skewed.

[superfly]

Why on earth would we want to trade our 22 year old potential All Star SS (someday) for a 31 year old journeyman SS and a bullpen arm?

 

Because no patience. The hate for Arcia because he looks like a rookie while still in his rookie year. Cant have that at 22. Its .950 OPS or move on. Oh but wait, is that right? With Villar and Santana its the lacking of GG defense. Brinson, Perez, Dubon are all going to be these requirements. AS or bust!

 

Yes, Brinson will come up and be like Mike Trout with zero struggles and Dubon is the next Jeter. The ones that are in the minor leagues always look like hall of famers until they get here and go through (gasp!) rookie struggles. Oh the horror!

[jerichoholicninja]

I'd wager Arcia never makes an all star team but I still wouldn't trade him for Cozart.

[tmwiese55]

If somehow we're in it at the end of the year and everyone is healthy. You simply just give Perez more and more of Arcia's ABs rather than acquire someone like Cozart. I mean if they give him to you for nothing, fine whatever but no way you'd give up anything of substance when you have a good 'win now' replacement on the team already. Heck, I'd also add that I think it's more likely we're contending than it as Cozart maintains what he's doing now. He's likely to have a massive correction coming soon.

[OnTheBlack]

Haha. Yeah Stearns waves off Mark A's demand with an eyeroll and reminder who's responsible for this team being here Year 2 of a 5year rebuild.

 

I tell Attanasio to shut the hell up and back the hell off.

 

LOL....riiiiight. If you were to have one of the 30 jobs in baseball that you've dreamed of, you're gonna tell your billionaire BOSS...and the owner of the team to "shut the hell up and back the hell off."

 

 

There's also this assumption that(by SOME) that Attanasio and even Melvin are/were idiots and would do anything. When did Melvin ever make this type of move? Trading away a player as young and talented as Arcia early on in the rebuild for two players who will be free agents?

 

I think they see the talent overflowing from Arcia...just a matter of him developing plate discipline...which I think he'll do and I think he ends up being a .290/.345/.455 type hitter with a great glove.

I think the worst case scenario is the Brewers don't do anything at the deadline. Best is they deal Anderson and Garza both net anything of value.

 

They're not good enough to win anything and so I don't think that Attanasio is as impatient as you think. You don't grow the empire he does by doing things on a whim. By not looking at the big picture. He knows what this team is. And unless Woodruff comes up and goes all Eldred circa '92, there's no hope this team could compete with the big boys YET in the playoffs. I think that's understood by the FO.