Your assessments of our minor league players

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, sometime soon I will go back and look at the MiLB numbers for Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart, etc. But what I remember is those guys had great numbers every year. Not years that needed caveats, or explained by wRC+, etc.

"Year" being the key. Checking my calendar, we are still 8 days short of June on this one. I have no idea how well any of those guys were doing 42 games into their various years. Mostly because it's not important.

 

Also not sure what you mean by "explained by wRC+" - what statistic should players be limited to when describing them? I think wRC+ does a lot better job than OPS, if for no other reason than it neutralizes run environment.

 

Which is why I acknowledged that in great detail in my full post. But all we know are the results so far. I can't say I will be excited in August once his numbers improve, because that is an unknown. For example, I doubt I will move him down in my Top 25 mid-season if his numbers are the same- maybe a tick. Just like Phillips last year, many practically wrote him off but I just bumped him down a bit.

 

All I'm saying is results to date (which is all we have) are nothing to be excited about. Even more true with Erceg. In the case of Clark, his ability and willingness to walk will really serve him well as his power increases and his hit tool gets better.

[Austin Tatious]

We are going to know when a player is doing well. It will be self evident. If you have to strain yourself as an apologist by cherry picking stats, excusing sample sizes, etc, you know it's not going well enough. It's not an academic exercise. What you want is consistent performance, and outperformance relative to your level. People know it when they see it.

 

David Stearns in a recent interview talked about OPS as a stat he likes, and he thinks .800 is pretty good.

 

We've got some pedigreed guys who aren't on that track yet, but we hope they will be at some point. The light has come on for Gatewood. Baseball is a game of adjustments. Hopefully he will maintain his trend as pitchers adjust to him. Unfortunately, in a recent interview Gatewood explained he sought out tutoring from outside the organization in the offseason. What you'd really like is good player development folks within the organization.

 

As of May 23, Ray has an ops of .756 after a hot streak and Clark at .743. Meanwhile, Diaz is at .814 as a middle infielder and Gatewood is at a whopping .961. Those numbers track the excitement level of the fans, who know success when they see if even if not really looking at OPS. It is fairly intuitive and anyone interested enough to be on this website will likely know their stuff.

 

But, reasonable consistency is important. If you have a bunch of guys who struggle for seven weeks, your team could be out of it by Memorial Day. Obviously, streaks and trends are part of baseball. But, these mini streaks should not be so protracted as you can wreck your year. And, really, the typical observer who isn't going to overcomplicate the analysis would just say you're not good enough.

 

Again, as Gatewood has had the lightbulb come on, we hope Clark and Ray develop that as well. I don't think anyone has said they are lost causes.

[And That]

If Clark's batting average were 40 points higher, but his OBP and SLG were the same, would he still be "meh"?

 

What I'm driving at here is that both Clark and Ray, whether you want to use OPS, wOBA, or wRC+, are literally playing above average baseball relative to their league. I can't square how above average translates into "meh" or "less than impressive" over a seven week stretch. The defense for that seems to be that extremely productive major league players played better in A ball over a full season, or that there's some OPS line of demarcation that they need to cross.

 

It's fine to set extremely high expectations for all the top guys in the Brewers' farm, but it is important to realize that players who do not meet the loftiest of expectations can still be extremely valuable members of the major league club down the road. The Brewers don't need to and will not develop a steady stream of superstar talent. The goal is to develop a stream of talent (full stop) to pipeline to Milwaukee, and both Clark and Ray are still very much a part of it. And they're both, objectively speaking, having a good start to the season.

 

And so is Phillips.

[And That]

If you have to strain yourself as an apologist by cherry picking stats, excusing sample sizes, etc, you know it's not going well enough.

I'll bite - what stat is being cherry picked?

 

My preferred statistic for comparing players is wRC+. In addition to weighting offensive outcomes more closely to the impact that they have on the outcome of baseball games than does OPS, it is controlled for park and league factors. For me, it's easily the most non-strain-y way to describe how a player is doing offensively.

 

If I see 800 OPS, I have to consider where the OPS is coming from. An 800 OPS in the PCL is usually not very impressive. An 800 OPS in the FSL is usually really impressive. I don't have to do that with wRC+ - it's built in. OPS does not have the desired context to compare players in any fine detail.

 

A .280 batting average in any context is nearly meaningless, and RBIs are flat meaningless.

 

Edit: As to the seven week "excuse" of sample size, last year on this date Isan Diaz was hitting .205/.291/.314. And 5/24/16 was even worse!

Edit 2: This is a fun game - last year on today's date, Lewis Brinson was hitting .228/.275/.423.

[FVBrewerFan]

wRC+ is fine, I used to follow that more until I realized 99% of the time it meant virtually the same thing as OPS+, and for that matter plain old OPS. As Austin said, as a quick look OPS almost always tells most of the story. I mean, if someone has an OPS of .600, wRC+ isn't going to save you.

 

But when evaluating prospects, it's fun to look deeper into K rates, BB rates, LH/RH splits, all that stuff. Just to get a sense of what's going on with a player. I think all we're saying is it's nice to see eye-popping numbers from top prospects, not numbers that are a little above avg for the Carolina league. As a top pick, and top prospect a player needs to be way above the average. (With the caveat, yes he could still get there by the end of the year.)

 

At this point, guys like Clark, Ray, and Harrison are both just a two week hot stretch away from looking a lot more sexy. Erceg, Nottingham, and Lara would need a lot more than that to catch up at this point.

[Noche]

wRC+ is fine, I used to follow that more until I realized 99% of the time it meant virtually the same thing as OPS+, and for that matter plain old OPS. As Austin said, as a quick look OPS almost always tells most of the story. I mean, if someone has an OPS of .600, wRC+ isn't going to save you.

 

But when evaluating prospects, it's fun to look deeper into K rates, BB rates, LH/RH splits, all that stuff. Just to get a sense of what's going on with a player. I think all we're saying is it's nice to see eye-popping numbers from top prospects, not numbers that are a little above avg for the Carolina league. As a top pick, and top prospect a player needs to be way above the average. (With the caveat, yes he could still get there by the end of the year.)

 

At this point, guys like Clark, Ray, and Harrison are both just a two week hot stretch away from looking a lot more sexy. Erceg, Nottingham, and Lara would need a lot more than that to catch up at this point.

 

wRC+ provides way more context than plain old OPS or OPS+.

[And That]

At least for me, wRC+ is just as easy to look up as OPS/OPS+.

 

wOBA and OPS are generally correlated decently, but wOBA does a much better job of recognizing the difference in value of individual events. wRC+ improves on that with its environmental contextualization.

 

And once you get used to it, isn't >100=above average and <100=below average more intuitive than the abstraction of whatever .300 or 800 or 1.279 means? I think it is. But I might be wrong.

[Austin Tatious]

Good discussion, I enjoy the back and forth. I'm going to see .250 with an OPS of .720 as mediocre production. I don't think you're going to win trying to justify a guy with advanced stats to make excuses for why his BA or OPS isn't good enough. Gatewood and Diaz are playing in the same games and fans are rightfully excited about them because they have the numbers to back up their actual production. It's not an academic exercise. You produce or you don't and we can see the production.

 

Weighted runs created is a good secondary stat. I also appreciate math and statistical adjustments as I was a science and math guy in undergrad. I would understand the view of eliminating luck, park conditions, or other factors and also by looking at things like BABIP. I think all these stats are interesting and have value. I'm not here to say I don't appreciate these things. But I'm certainly not going to buy that a higher batting average is "meaningless." A guy with high average and OPS is getting the job done and a guy who doesn't have those numbers, isn't.

 

I'd also argue that some of the factors that can cause variance would even out over time. If a couple of seeing eye bloops fall just inside the line in April, they may just fall out in May. Baseball is a game of longevity and the season is long enough to factor these things in and certainly over multi-years. Over 600 plate appearances, the player is who he is. You may want to justify a guy's performance through an advanced stat, but I'm going to stick with my point that over a body of work, you will assess actual production through BA, OBP, OPS, HR, BARSP, RBI. Those are stats that demonstrate production.

 

No matter how many stat adjustments you want to make, you can't hide a .250 average especially if the player lacks pop. That .250 average is telling you something, and you want to dismiss it. I don't buy that at all, and I am sure I could find a bunch of hall of famers to agree with me. Gatewood and Diaz are on the same team and have desired OPS so you can't just blame the league.

 

I agree, and have said from the beginning that there is time for the numbers to come up as it is not even Memorial Day. I believe my very first point on Ray was that he was coming off injury and the second half of the year will tell us more. Heck, he may be hitting .300 in a month. But, where you think that is arbitrary, my view is that's very positive. That's exactly what I'd love to see. The problem with dismissing seven weeks is that your team can be buried by the time you recover.

 

We will know Ray and Clark are getting there when they have a good average, lots of extra base hits, and good OPS. That isn't happening enough, although this is fluid and Ray has been hot even since the thread started.

 

Regarding player development, no one is saying you want all stars at all eight positions. It's a cop out and red herring to mock people who want better production. You do want a group that collectively is top flight. Otherwise, what are we even doing here? You're not winning with the likes of Scooter Gennett types who are classic second division ball players.

 

Left field is not a premium defensive position. You're going to want a thunder bat out there. I'm not looking for a .250 guy with 15 HR and .720 OPS out in left. For Clark to be the guy, he's going to have to be way better than that in left. I don't care what his BABIP or runs created metrics are. Meanwhile .720 OPS from Arcia is satisfactory. He's at a premium defensive spot.

 

Regarding Erceg, I was one of the guys pumping him up. So, I will own that. He's in a funk now. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw is playing really well right now. I've been asking myself, what is Erceg's upside? It might just be what Travis Shaw is. Bird in hand. Now, in three years, Shaw will be pushing 30 and Erceg will be about where Shaw is now, but maybe Shaw is our guy until he proves he isn't. I like his approach. Last year he went into a severe tailspin so let's see if he can avoid that. Also, I haven't given up on Gatewood as a 3b.

[Austin Tatious]

wRC+ is fine, I used to follow that more until I realized 99% of the time it meant virtually the same thing as OPS+, and for that matter plain old OPS. As Austin said, as a quick look OPS almost always tells most of the story. I mean, if someone has an OPS of .600, wRC+ isn't going to save you.

 

But when evaluating prospects, it's fun to look deeper into K rates, BB rates, LH/RH splits, all that stuff. Just to get a sense of what's going on with a player. I think all we're saying is it's nice to see eye-popping numbers from top prospects, not numbers that are a little above avg for the Carolina league. As a top pick, and top prospect a player needs to be way above the average. (With the caveat, yes he could still get there by the end of the year.)

 

At this point, guys like Clark, Ray, and Harrison are both just a two week hot stretch away from looking a lot more sexy. Erceg, Nottingham, and Lara would need a lot more than that to catch up at this point.

 

wRC+ provides way more context than plain old OPS or OPS+.

 

I do think this is well said. It provides context. So, it has value. But, you win games with actual production. Players can make adjustments for ball parks or weather or the league he's in or whatever. And then translate it to actual production.

 

WRC etc can have some value. I'm not looking up Ryan Cordell but he's hitting like .320 when he was .270 before (roughly, I didn't look up numbers). We all know he's in altiftude and huge gaps where he can unrealistically rake. I think we can realize he's not really a .320 guy.

[LouisEly]

Define "less-than-impressive." Using Clark or Ray* as a baseline, "less-than-impressive" would still include above average players.

 

(*Or at least it will for Ray after tonight's game. He's literally average in terms of wRC+ right now.)

 

And that's just using wRC+. Clark and Ray both walk much more than average. Ray has posted well above average power. Both have well above average speed. As for contact, they both have a 90 CT+, which is below average but not by a lot. Clark has posted just above average linear weighted power for the Carolina League this year.

This is what we expect of top-10 overall picks - literally average?

 

And a .411 SLG (career .384, so it was worse last year) is well above average power?

 

I'd be excited about that from a 6th round pick. But not a top-10 overall pick. I expect well above average.

[And That]

What I except from top 10 picks is production at some point at the big league level. I don't really have any expectations seven weeks into a minor league season.

 

So my assessment of Ray and Clark is that they have been above average to this very point in time this year. Not that that really means a whole lot.

 

The fact that Ray has gone from about 80 wRC+ to 106 wRC+ in a period of 3 or 4 games should tell you that there's just not enough data to form any sort of conclusion make a meaningful appraisal about a player at this point.

 

Edit: And yes, Ray has 132 PX score, which is linear weighted power adjusted for league. More or less the power portion of wRC+, and on the same scale.

[FVBrewerFan]

Nobody has said we have drawn conclusions, that part is straw man territory.

[And That]

You produce or you don't and we can see the production.

I've seen somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of both Clark's and Ray's PAs this year, and I can attest to seeing the production. They both look better than most of the other players on the field on most nights. That their batting averages aren't 30 points higher or whatever level is deemed acceptable is transatory. It's not an issue in my head. The talent is there, they hit the ball hard, and they work counts. wRC+ picks that up. The scouting backs it up. Are there development hiccups? Sure. But they are producing on the field, despite what Hall of Famers may think.

[And That]

Nobody has said we have drawn conclusions, that part is straw man territory.

That was not the intent. Word parsing clarified above.

[LouisEly]

It's not about 7 weeks of data with Ray. It's about darn near a full season at high-A, 415 PAs to be exact, with a barely above average wRC+, whereas the next pick in the draft has a 13.8 K/9, 0.23 HR/9, and xFIP of 3.13 in a very hitter-friendly league.

[And That]

The #1 pick in the 2016 draft is in A ball at the same age Trent Clark was last year, and currently has a lower wRC+ than Clark. Should the Phillies be worried about Moniak? I don't think so.

 

Players develop differently. Some don't develop at all. It would be great if Ray had a 1300 OPS, but I don't think it's too worrying that he doesn't. I'd be worried if he was hitting like a dumpster fire. And I've heard crickets about fundamental scouting worries regarding Ray. He looked maybe over anxious at the plate early, but I haven't seen that recently. I would urge you to be patient with him. I think patience will be rewarded in this case.

[Noche]

We are lucky to have prospects the caliber of Ray and Clark. Both are tremendously valuable and both project to have impact ceilings in the majors.

[leitermab07]

It's not about 7 weeks of data with Ray. It's about darn near a full season at high-A, 415 PAs to be exact, with a barely above average wRC+, whereas the next pick in the draft has a 13.8 K/9, 0.23 HR/9, and xFIP of 3.13 in a very hitter-friendly league.

 

Not sure where you are getting your stats from: Corey Ray has 372 abs in his career so far. Him and Ian Happ were both college players and have identical stats through there first year and that doesn't include the fact that Ray is coming off knee surgery. Settle down on him, he is going to be fine.

[Austin Tatious]

You produce or you don't and we can see the production.

I've seen somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of both Clark's and Ray's PAs this year, and I can attest to seeing the production. They both look better than most of the other players on the field on most nights. That their batting averages aren't 30 points higher or whatever level is deemed acceptable is transatory. It's not an issue in my head. The talent is there, they hit the ball hard, and they work counts. wRC+ picks that up. The scouting backs it up. Are there development hiccups? Sure. But they are producing on the field, despite what Hall of Famers may think.

 

Fair enough. I hope your assessment is right. I mean that sincerely. The last thing I'd ever do is root for a negative outcome. We all want them to succeed, obviously.

[pacopete4]

You produce or you don't and we can see the production.

I've seen somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of both Clark's and Ray's PAs this year, and I can attest to seeing the production. They both look better than most of the other players on the field on most nights. That their batting averages aren't 30 points higher or whatever level is deemed acceptable is transatory. It's not an issue in my head. The talent is there, they hit the ball hard, and they work counts. wRC+ picks that up. The scouting backs it up. Are there development hiccups? Sure. But they are producing on the field, despite what Hall of Famers may think.

 

Fair enough. I hope your assessment is right. I mean that sincerely. The last thing I'd ever do is root for a negative outcome. We all want them to succeed, obviously.

 

The way you write about it, it gets that feeling behind it. You've made it known how badly you wanted a pitcher in those spots and it feels as though you will tear those picks a part if they are not HOF'ers.

[LouisEly]

It's not about 7 weeks of data with Ray. It's about darn near a full season at high-A, 415 PAs to be exact, with a barely above average wRC+, whereas the next pick in the draft has a 13.8 K/9, 0.23 HR/9, and xFIP of 3.13 in a very hitter-friendly league.

 

Not sure where you are getting your stats from: Corey Ray has 372 abs in his career so far. Him and Ian Happ were both college players and have identical stats through there first year and that doesn't include the fact that Ray is coming off knee surgery. Settle down on him, he is going to be fine.

Umm... not to be condescending, but where are you getting your stats from? Ray has 415 plate appearances (ABs + walks + HBP + sac flies/hits) of which 372 count as at-bats.

 

Happ had a .885 OPS in the Carolina League (the same league Ray has been in) in Happ's second season (Ray is in his second season as well). Ray has a .756 OPS. Those aren't even close.

[leitermab07]

It's not about 7 weeks of data with Ray. It's about darn near a full season at high-A, 415 PAs to be exact, with a barely above average wRC+, whereas the next pick in the draft has a 13.8 K/9, 0.23 HR/9, and xFIP of 3.13 in a very hitter-friendly league.

 

Not sure where you are getting your stats from: Corey Ray has 372 abs in his career so far. Him and Ian Happ were both college players and have identical stats through there first year and that doesn't include the fact that Ray is coming off knee surgery. Settle down on him, he is going to be fine.

Umm... not to be condescending, but where are you getting your stats from? Ray has 415 plate appearances (ABs + walks + HBP + sac flies/hits) of which 372 count as at-bats.

 

Happ had a .885 OPS in the Carolina League (the same league Ray has been in) in Happ's second season (Ray is in his second season as well). Ray has a .756 OPS. Those aren't even close.

 

I was looking on milb.com.. but you are correct, I didn't count the walks and HBP.. My bad.... As for the OPS on May 24th of Happs second yr he was at .830. yes, still better, but that doesn't include the fact that Ray is working off a surgically repaired knee. I know Happ's numbers were a little better at this stage, but Ray has really turned the corner the last month it seems. Happ had double the amount of ab's that Ray has had in Carolina league so far. But I think going forward I will be comparing these two alot. Shall be interesting to see where Rays numbers r by the end of the yr.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Betancourt has really come on in the last month. His OPS is over 1.000 in the last 28 days and for the season is now at .766. Those numbers are better than Dubon.

 

I know he was a high prospect for a very poor Detroit farm system but what do we really have here. Is his upside a starter or just a very good utility man?

 

That 2015 trade of K-rod for Pina and Betancourt is looking pretty good right now.

[MrTPlush]

Betancourt has really come on in the last month. His OPS is over 1.000 in the last 28 days and for the season is now at .766. Those numbers are better than Dubon.

 

I know he was a high prospect for a very poor Detroit farm system but what do we really have here. Is his upside a starter or just a very good utility man?

 

That 2015 trade of K-rod for Pina and Betancourt is looking pretty good right now.

 

To me he is a 2B starter or bust. I don't think he would provide good enough defense on the left side to warrant a utility spot.

[brewcrewdue80]

Reading the thread last 3pages. I appreciate the OPS stat. What I look in the numbers is XBH. Load them up mix some HRs with a bunch of doubles. I cant really look at the numbers not being on a computer or hi tech phone. I know Diaz was excellent last year in XBHs. And Im thinking continuing this year. The next are walks and Ks. I dont get as scared at a young age for 30-38% k rate if theres Xbhs coming from the batter with ability on walks. You can lower that k pct little by little get to the mid 20s and its no longer a concern.What Gatewood is doing this season, it must rank up there for most improved numbers all time in the Franchise. Maybe baseball for all I know? Year to year improvement.

In stating Taylor's success at A? Ball where were the XBHs? It wasnt eyepopping. Lack of HRs.

Anyway enjoyed reading the previous pages. Nice to hear an update.