Your assessments of our minor league players

[And That]

Yah, Trent Clark has played basically a full season's worth of games in his minor league career, and he has a .381 OBP and a 125ish wRC+. If that's struggling, that's an extremely high threshold for struggling.

[Austin Tatious]

More realistically, Clark is hitting .250 with 4 HR and 18 RBI with 40 strikeouts. Can't sugar coat it. As you guys know very well, walks in class A ball where pitchers don't have the same control, are a different animal than the majors. Pitchers in the minor league are frequently wild and are actually working on control. All you have to do is to look at the Brewers own system.

 

It sounds like he takes a ton of pitches. It's a good sign that he has discipline. But so did the rule 5 kid we took from the Athletics who refused to swing and it hurt his ability to hit. There's a balance between taking pitches and stifling your ability to hit because you lack aggression.

 

He's going to have to hit the baseball at some point.

[Noche]

More realistically, Clark is hitting .250 with 4 HR and 18 RBI with 40 strikeouts. Can't sugar coat it. As you guys know very well, walks in class A ball where pitchers don't have the same control, are a different animal than the majors. Pitchers in the minor league are frequently wild and are actually working on control. All you have to do is to look at the Brewers own system.

 

It sounds like he takes a ton of pitches. It's a good sign that he has discipline. But so did the rule 5 kid we took from the Athletics who refused to swing and it hurt his ability to hit. There's a balance between taking pitches and stifling your ability to hit because you lack aggression.

 

He's going to have to hit the baseball at some point.

 

This year Clark is creating runs at an above average pace while being well below the average age. You could say the same for his entire career. The scouts generally have been impressed and project him well as he advances.

[brewmann04]

I thinking Williams calling will be as a Reliever for the crew.

[igor67]

Not all walks are equal on the player side. For guys like Clark and Ray they have the tools to make a take and rake approach explode with performance. Exactly like Gatewood has done. Very different from say when a later round pick like Demuth posts a good OBP in A-ball. It's fair to ding Clark and Ray for not having taken huge steps forward, but that is a far cry from calling it a terrible start. There have been a few of those this year, but overall things have been pretty good in prospect land.

[MrTPlush]

Trent Clark knows how to work an AB and it is very obvious watching him. He is an elite guy when it come to drawing walks and getting on base relative to his batting average. I'd expect that to continue wherever he goes.

[Austin Tatious]

Garrett Cooper is another guy who just hits. He reminds me of Khris Davis from the standpoint that he wasn't super highly regarded in the rankings but he just produces at the plate.

 

Overall, lot of positive development this year, especially compared with last year.

[And That]

Clark and Isan Diaz have very similar approaches at the plate. They both noticeably watch the ball all the way in and both have quick hands so as to make hard contact even when they recognize a little late. I would agree that Clark needs to get more aggressive at the plate, similar to where Diaz is at now. Isan is more willing to swing at close pitches than Trent. As such, Diaz swings and misses more often, but also swings and hits more often. That is a trade-off Clark is going to have to learn to live with going forward.

 

Clark also needs to get better at hitting where the ball is pitched - he often will take pitches he can't make hard contact on the pull side with.

 

I would also contest that Clark is a "glove" guy - he takes some truly hideous routes to fly balls, especially when he plays in center. That's something he can work on, but he's not 100% natural out there.

 

All of that said, he is an elite talent due to the potential in his bat. I wouldn't be too put off by what a 20 year old is doing in his first crack at advanced-A ball. Especially after missing about half of his A-ball season, and playing injured for most of the other half.

[And That]

2. Josh Nottingham. The rose is coming off the bloom. The Brewers gave up a ton to get him. His defense was awful last year and I'd like to see whether he's improved. But the bat has been mediocre.

I actually like what I've seen from Nottingham so far. He has absolutely made strides defensively. His footwork behind the plate is markedly improved, which has lead to better blocking and better mechanics on his throws to second. Still far from a finished product, but I have been impressed on the work he's put in.

 

He's also improved his walk rate and cut his K rate by 1/3 from last year, from 30% to 20%. He's hitting more fly balls than ever, and has had a silly number of flyballs not fall in. At one point he was like 0-15 on fly balls, which is completely nutso bad luck. His BABIP is still deflated.

 

Important to remember as well that Nottingham is just 22. He's 8 months younger than Max McDowell. Still has plenty of time.

[Never Outhustled]

 

No. They are underperforming. Badly.

 

They both have an OPS around . 750 in a pitcher favored league and Clark gets on base at a .368 clip. Neither is setting the world on fire but badly underperforming is overstating it.

 

They may have brought their numbers up recently. But in three years in the system, Clark has underperformed relative to where he was drafted. He does not project to be as good as Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips or Cordell.

 

How does Clark not project as well as Brinson, Broxton, Phillips or Cordell? At this point in their 20 year old seasons, Brinson, Broxton, and Phillips were all still in A ball, Clark is in A+. Cordell was having a mediocre sophomore season in college.

 

I can understand being underwhelmed with Ray, as he's 26 months older than Clark and only a few months younger than Brinson and Phillips, but Clark is someone we should be really excited about as he continues to improve despite being really challenged.

[pacopete4]

 

 

They both have an OPS around . 750 in a pitcher favored league and Clark gets on base at a .368 clip. Neither is setting the world on fire but badly underperforming is overstating it.

 

They may have brought their numbers up recently. But in three years in the system, Clark has underperformed relative to where he was drafted. He does not project to be as good as Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Phillips or Cordell.

 

How does Clark not project as well as Brinson, Broxton, Phillips or Cordell? At this point in their 20 year old seasons, Brinson, Broxton, and Phillips were all still in A ball, Clark is in A+. Cordell was having a mediocre sophomore season in college.

 

I can understand being underwhelmed with Ray, as he's 26 months older than Clark and only a few months younger than Brinson and Phillips, but Clark is someone we should be really excited about as he continues to improve despite being really challenged.

 

Because he wanted a pitcher with that pick.

[Greenleaf1]

Nottingham certainly turning it around this month so far:

 

.283/.389/.413 in May, .382 BABIP but his season BABIP is .275 even with the recent lucky surge, so any luck he's had recently is outweighed by the bad luck he suffered in April.

 

26/10 K/BB ratio for the season (12/6 in May) is pretty good for a guy who had 138/29 last year (95/36 would be his projections for this year based on # of PAs from last year).

 

No homers yet this year, but he's getting his swing back and if he has improved behind the plate a bit, that all sounds like positive news for Nottingham after last season. Houle is forcing their hand in Biloxi by playing pretty well, so Nottingham seems to be getting more time at 1B/DH now, something to keep an eye on.

 

Definitely a guy to keep an eye on for the rest of the season.

[leitermab07]

Overall I am pretty happy about the minor league prospects so far this year. Brinson and Diaz have continued to rake like I expected and Clark and Ray have made steady progress throughout the yr which I expected as well.

 

The good surprises to me are Supak and Burnes who have pitched great and seem to have great command and control of multiple pitches.

 

Like everyone else I am pretty disappointed in Lara and Nottingham. I knew Nottingham needed work behind the plate, but he was supposed to be advanced in hitting. He has not shown that in the yr in a half yet. I expected alot more Power. Slugging .311 and .337 is terrible for a guy that supposedly his power is his best tool.

 

I think it is obvious to all of us, but this system is def missing a 1/2 type of pitcher. I know it is impossible to just get any pitcher and make him an ace. This organization's number one goal for the next yr or 2 is to get/find "that guy". The Braves look to have about 4 elite pitchers which makes me super jealous.

[Austin Tatious]

2. Josh Nottingham. The rose is coming off the bloom. The Brewers gave up a ton to get him. His defense was awful last year and I'd like to see whether he's improved. But the bat has been mediocre.

I actually like what I've seen from Nottingham so far. He has absolutely made strides defensively. His footwork behind the plate is markedly improved, which has lead to better blocking and better mechanics on his throws to second. Still far from a finished product, but I have been impressed on the work he's put in.

 

He's also improved his walk rate and cut his K rate by 1/3 from last year, from 30% to 20%. He's hitting more fly balls than ever, and has had a silly number of flyballs not fall in. At one point he was like 0-15 on fly balls, which is completely nutso bad luck. His BABIP is still deflated.

 

Important to remember as well that Nottingham is just 22. He's 8 months younger than Max McDowell. Still has plenty of time.

 

That's good to hear about his defense. Maybe he will put it all together at some point.

 

I am definitely very pumped about Feliciano as a catching prospect. He's only 18 and doing very well at Class A. You never know, he could be like Arcia and be in Milwaukee at age 21 or 22. Legit catchers are so hard to find.

[Austin Tatious]

How does Clark not project as well as Brinson, Broxton, Phillips or Cordell? At this point in their 20 year old seasons, Brinson, Broxton, and Phillips were all still in A ball, Clark is in A+. Cordell was having a mediocre sophomore season in college.

 

I can understand being underwhelmed with Ray, as he's 26 months older than Clark and only a few months younger than Brinson and Phillips, but Clark is someone we should be really excited about as he continues to improve despite being really challenged.

 

I will take your point about Clark's age. And, frankly, it is only the quarter mark. Maybe he will end up with .280 15 and 80. That would be a guy coming along, where a .350 OBP would be more meaningful to project from. I am not a guy who starts cherry picking more advanced stats to pump up a guy. Clark, having been the 15th overall pick, should not be a 25% hitter. That's not what we want, regardless of his walks. I will be more concerned if he is a .240 or .250 hitter at the end of the season, which I sure would not expect.

 

A couple of other things. Age is a factor but there are guys who are young and never rise up. Luis Sardinas was once well regarded because he was only 20 and advancing. Well, he never put it together and is getting passed along to different organizations.

 

As for whether Clark gets to where Brinson, Phillips, Cordell and Broxton get, they have proven more and all have shown upside. Broxton may be the most under-rated asset in the Brewer organization. Brinson is a big time talent. Cordell is an athlete with decent well rounded hitting potential. Phillips can defend at the very least, and has had a good bat save for 2016.

 

Clark needs to prove a lot. Like you said, he's young. The light switch flipped for Gatewood this year. Maybe it will for Clark. I sure hope so. But, I wouldn't count on anything until we see it. Just because he is at a more advanced level at his age, as compared to where the other guys were at that same age, does not promise anything. Those other guys have proven themselves higher up the food chain. That may or may not happen for Clark.

 

I am looking for a collection of guys you can win a championship with, not guys who are happy to be in the big leagues.

 

As for Ray, I wouldn't panic yet. He jumped from .229 to .258 after getting eight hits in 5 games and I believe went deep once finally. He's recovering from the knee injury. He may be a .300 hitter in a month, and on his way. Recent advanced college bats taken in the top 10 like Schwarber, Benintendi, Swanson, and Happ have roared through the minors. Those are Ray's peers. Whether he was the right pick or not, you'd still expect some level of advancement from Ray.

[Austin Tatious]

Clark and Isan Diaz have very similar approaches at the plate. They both noticeably watch the ball all the way in and both have quick hands so as to make hard contact even when they recognize a little late. I would agree that Clark needs to get more aggressive at the plate, similar to where Diaz is at now. Isan is more willing to swing at close pitches than Trent. As such, Diaz swings and misses more often, but also swings and hits more often. That is a trade-off Clark is going to have to learn to live with going forward.

 

Clark also needs to get better at hitting where the ball is pitched - he often will take pitches he can't make hard contact on the pull side with.

 

I would also contest that Clark is a "glove" guy - he takes some truly hideous routes to fly balls, especially when he plays in center. That's something he can work on, but he's not 100% natural out there.

 

All of that said, he is an elite talent due to the potential in his bat. I wouldn't be too put off by what a 20 year old is doing in his first crack at advanced-A ball. Especially after missing about half of his A-ball season, and playing injured for most of the other half.

 

Interesting take. Have you ever seen exit velocities for the two guys? From everything I've heard, Diaz has that elite pop, where the ball just screams off the bat in a special way. I have not heard that about Clark.

[And That]

I haven't seen any exit velocities on Clark, though anecdotally, a week or two ago the Carolina radio guy said Clark had "that sound off the bat" that only elite hitters have. Also anecdotally, he's hit some of the harder balls I've seen this year, though most of them are line drives and not lofted well.

[Austin Tatious]

I give you credit for watching Carolina play, and for keeping us informed of your findings. We all appreciate it.

[LouisEly]

The elephant in the room that I think some are overlooking is the magnitude of the jump from A to AA. If Clark and Ray were putting up the numbers they are a year from now and a year older at AA I wouldn't be concerned. I'm concerned that they will be able to put up acceptable numbers against arguably the biggest jump in pitching quality from one level to the next.

 

I'm sure there are guys who put up less-than-impressive numbers in A-ball and then went on to become solid major leaguers - if you know of any, please list them. The one that comes to mind for me is Bobby Bonilla, and his minor league numbers are pretty similar to Trent Clark's. I'd certainly take a Bobby Bonilla career path. But that was a long time ago, and I think many more are like Tyrone Taylor and flame out at AA.

[And That]

Define "less-than-impressive." Using Clark or Ray* as a baseline, "less-than-impressive" would still include above average players.

 

(*Or at least it will for Ray after tonight's game. He's literally average in terms of wRC+ right now.)

 

And that's just using wRC+. Clark and Ray both walk much more than average. Ray has posted well above average power. Both have well above average speed. As for contact, they both have a 90 CT+, which is below average but not by a lot. Clark has posted just above average linear weighted power for the Carolina League this year.

[And That]

So looking at just the Brewers' roster, players with a lower wRC+ than Trent Clark in advanced-A ball:

 

Hernan Perez

Manny Pina

Jett Bandy

Jesus Aguilar

Keon Broxton

Jonathan Villar

 

Pina, Bandy, Aguilar, and Broxton were all older than Clark in advanced-A.

 

Orlando Arcia and Ryan Braun both had wRC+s in the ballpark, just a little higher. Clark is also hurt by the fact that we're all of 7 weeks into the season.

[MrTPlush]

Define "less-than-impressive." Using Clark or Ray* as a baseline, "less-than-impressive" would still include above average players.

 

Except when people are saying they are less than impressive it is looking at what they think those players should be doing vs. what they actually are doing. Those are players people want to be hitting .280/.350./.500

 

Now all things considered I am not too terribly dissapointed with either of them. Both are hitting for a solid .750 OPS. Not terrible...not that good(considering we drafted them so high). Hopefully one of them can take the next step.

[FVBrewerFan]

Define "less-than-impressive." Using Clark or Ray* as a baseline, "less-than-impressive" would still include above average players.

 

Except when people are saying they are less than impressive it is looking at what they think those players should be doing vs. what they actually are doing. Those are players people want to be hitting .280/.350./.500

 

Now all things considered I am not too terribly dissapointed with either of them. Both are hitting for a solid .750 OPS. Not terrible...not that good(considering we drafted them so high). Hopefully one of them can take the next step.

 

Yea, sometime soon I will go back and look at the MiLB numbers for Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart, etc. But what I remember is those guys had great numbers every year. Not years that needed caveats, or explained by wRC+, etc.

 

Maybe that's not fair, different era, different parks, etc. But generally speaking, if you look at the big bats in MLB, those guys produced big time every year in the minors. So when I see Clark, Ray, Erceg, etc. not tear it up, I don't get too excited about them. But there's a long way to go this season, so it's not like I'm giving up on them. It also doesn't mean a player can't have a mediocre year and then turn it on the next and take off from there. All it means is I look at what Clark has done this year, and it's meh.

[And That]

Putting aside .280/.350/.500 being arbitrary, do you want them to be hitting that now, at seven weeks into the season, or do you want them to be hitting that at the end of the season? Or should they be hitting that at any given seven week stretch within the season? Can offensive environment be factored into it?

 

Or put another way, these dots represent the number of games of Carolina's schedule, and the X is where we are now:

 

...........................................X................................................................................................

 

Is it fair to say someone is "less than impressive" at this point in the season?

 

As to the .280/.350/.500 slash line, the Brewers currently have exactly six players in their well-performing and well-regarded minor league organization with an OPS >850 and PA >100. Five of those six play in Colorado Springs, and one of them is Eric Sogard.

[And That]

Yea, sometime soon I will go back and look at the MiLB numbers for Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart, etc. But what I remember is those guys had great numbers every year. Not years that needed caveats, or explained by wRC+, etc.

"Year" being the key. Checking my calendar, we are still 8 days short of June on this one. I have no idea how well any of those guys were doing 42 games into their various years. Mostly because it's not important.

 

Also not sure what you mean by "explained by wRC+" - what statistic should players be limited to when describing them? I think wRC+ does a lot better job than OPS, if for no other reason than it neutralizes run environment.