BA's Draft coverage picking up

[dixieflatline]

I wouldn't read too much into this but in the BA chat today the following questions about Alex Gordon came up:

 

Tom L. from Manhattan, KS asks:

If Upton is gone, do you see the royals taking anyone buy Gordon with the 2nd overall? Thanks.

 

A:John Manuel: This probably won't make Royals fans happy . . . our understanding from other clubs is, the Royals are not going to spend a lot for that pick. Unless Alex Gordon is willing to sign for slot, and I mean just a straight bonus, he won't be the guy there. We've heard some wild rumors at the No. 2 spot, such as Texas A&M's Cliff Pennington and Rancho Bernardo HS outfielder John Drennan, as well as Oregon State outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Those are all good players, I'd say consensus first 50 talents, but not anywhere near the No. 2 pick. I understand David Glass is saying otherwise, but everything we hear is, the Royals are thinking budget first, talent second, and that's a shame.

 

Ernie from Avenel, NJ asks:

Assuming Upton goes 1st and KC passes on Gordon does Seattle take Gordon after signing Beltre long-term ?

 

A:John Manuel: I have heard Tulowitzki and Zimmerman for them.

 

I would tend to believe that the Royals might pass up Gordon as they have gone the cheap route the last couple of drafts. If Seattle doesn't want him then he would only have to get past the Nationals to fall to us. Still seems unlikely but even if we can't get Gordon if the Royals do go the cheap route getting the 4th best player available is better than the 5th best.

[colbyjack]

BA started another very good feature leading up to the draft, their pre-draft blog which appears as though will be updated daily:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...eblog.html

[ja002h]

Callis ranked his top 10 on the espn chat today:

 

Upton

Gordon

Maybin

Mike Pelfrey

Troy Tulowitzki

Luke Hochevar

Mike Pelfrey

Drew

Weaver

Andrew McCutchen

 

If Drew and Weaver sign, add Hansen and Miami 3B/OF Ryan Braun to make that 10.

 

and, the all important "how will it actually play out" question:

 

"as to how we think the Top 10 will go, it's still early but here's our best guess: Upton to Diamondbacks, Maybin to Royals, Gordon to Mariners, Zimmerman to Nationals, Pelfrey to Brewers (that might be a stretch, and no one ever knows what Brewers will do ahead of time), Cal State Fullerton LHP Ricky Romero to Blue Jays, Hochevar to Rockies, Tulowitzki to Devil Rays, Hansen to Mets, Braun to Tigers. Lots of rumors about the Royals going cheap at No. 2, but they insist that's not true. They also could take Gordon, which could push Tulowitzki up to the Mariners at No. 3, Maybin to the Brewers at No. 5 and Pelfrey to the Tigers at No. 10."

[colbyjack]

From today's blog entries, some expect both Weaver & Drew to sign before the draft:

 

Quote:

---

Though agent Scott Boras indicated three days ago (see below) that 2004 first-round picks Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew likely will re-enter the draft, multiple scouting directors contacted by Baseball America think that's just a negotiating ploy. Weaver, taken 12th by the Angels, has been offered either a $5.25 million big league contract or a $4 million bonus. Drew, who went 15th to the Diamondbacks, has yet to accept a major league package that would guarantee him $5.5 million and would swell to as much as $7.5 million with easily attainable incentives. There's been no indication that other teams are willing to approach those deals, and if Drew and Weaver don't come to terms it would hurt the signability of Boras' other seven clients with legitimate first-round aspirations in this year's draft. "They're going to sign," an American League scouting director said. "Scott's not dumb. He may say he thinks they're going to re-enter the draft, but I can almost guarantee they're going to sign. They have to. He's going to go to the last minute to get the last penny. That's just Negotiating 101 with Scott Boras."

---

[brewswinga2]

Any chance us non-subscribers can get a sneak peek into BA's first round projection?

 

Pleaaaaaaaaaseeeehttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[colbyjack]

Some great draft notes provided here talking about how the D-Backs are still looking at Upton for the #1 overall pick and how the Royals won't go cheap:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...rview.html

 

And BA provided their first draft projection, blurb on the Brewers to follow (this is subscriber info, and usually I don't provide this info...Upton, Gordon, Tulo & Zimmerman or off the board, in that order):

 

Quote:

---

5. BREWERS

The Brewers pick fifth for the second year in a row. Jack Zduriencik has an enviable track record in his five-year tenure as scouting director and probably will take the best player available again?unless new ownership or GM Doug Melvin dictates a college player who will provide a more immediate return. If they?re available, Gordon or Zimmerman would fill a need at third base, as would Southern California catcher Jeff Clement behind the plate. Zduriencik rarely tips his hand, but Maybin and Texas outfielder Jay Bruce are thought to be in his high school mix, as are Braun and Cal State Fullerton lefthander Ricky Romero.

PROJECTED PICK: Cameron Maybin.

---

 

Jay Bruce is one name that hasn't been tossed around much. At one point he was thought to be involved with Boras, but that rumor may have been dispelled. Bill & myself believe that Braun is going to hit and then some as a pro, and I'm thrilled to see Romero's name mentioned as a possibility.

[brewswinga2]

Thanks Colby

[Never Outhustled]

Colby, why isn't there more talk of Braun to Milwaukee? He has hit as well as anyone in the country, including Gordon, the last time I saw his stats. Has he fallen off? He's a terriffic athlete, so he's projectable. He might be a little raw defensively at 3B, but that partly because he was starting at SS as a freshman. Theres alot more footwork technique at 3B. He excites me more than Zimmerman, because he's simply a better offensive player, with real power, and he has the upside to develop into a star.

Another question Colby, what position has Braun played in offseason baseball, has he played mostly 3rd?

I love the idea of getting argueably the best hitter in the draft.

[molitor fan]

As we laid out in our first-round projections on BA.com this morning, we have Justin Upton going first to the Diamondbacks, Alex Gordon going second to the Royals, Troy Tulowitzki going third to the Mariners, Ryan Zimmerman going fourth to the Nationals and Cameron Maybin going fifth to the Brewers. Obviously, that's not set in stone as the D-backs still have Stephen Drew to sign from last year and the Royals need to commit to spending the money to sign a legit No. 2 pick.

 

 

....Braun's the third best college third baseman in this draft, but I'd be very surprised if he's not picked in the first half of the first round. A lot of teams have shown interest, but we've got him going to the Indians with the 14th pick. I don't see any way he lasts to the Padres. Though he's a third baseman now, most teams see Braun moving to the outfield.

 

.....we hear that Townsend is the D-Rays guy, which would make it the second year in a row that he went eighth overall. Townsend was only 86-90 at a workout the D-Rays hosted at their minor league complex a couple of days ago, but it was obvious he wasn't in top shape

 

....As for the Mets at nine, Hansen and Texas high school outfielder Jay Bruce are the players whose names we hear most

 

.....Clement is the premier catcher in this year's draft, but not everyone is sold he'll hit for a high average or be an above-average defender. The power and makeup are unmistakeable, and he's improved a lot defensively at USC this year, working with Chad Kreuter, But catching is probably the most difficult position to project with any certainty. Don't be surprised if the Brewers at 5, the Rockies at 7 and the D-Rays at 8 don't make a big run at him.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

The BA Top 200 is up . . . .

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...ft/top200h

[batman]

Here's the latest from Gammons (I know, not BA, but close enough):

 

sports.espn.go.com/mlb/ga...id=2066185

 

"When the draft begins on June 7, Chesapeake, Va., shortstop/center fielder Justin Upton, University of Nebraska third baseman Alex Gordon, Long Beach State shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and University of Virginia third baseman Ryan Zimmerman will, barring some unforeseen development, be the first four players selected, by, in order, Arizona, Kansas City, Seattle and Washington."

 

Apologies if this was mentioned elsewhere.

 

~Bill

[colbyjack]

BA started their regional coverage, starting with California today. While the complete coverage is subscriber based, I had to share their comments on Cal State Fullerton LHP Ricky Romero:

 

Quote:

---

3. RICKY ROMERO, lhp (National Ranking: 13)

School: Cal State Fullerton.

Hometown: Los Angeles.

B-T: R-L. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 170. Birthdate: Nov. 6, 1984.

Previously Drafted: Red Sox 2002 (37).

Scouting Report: Cal State Fullerton could approach or even top the draft record of 13 players from one school this year, but Romero is the only one assured of going in the first five rounds. In fact, he is the favorite to be the first lefthander selected overall, possibly in the first 10-15 picks. Romero has three solid, major league-ready pitches that he can throw for strikes almost at will, including a fastball that sits at 90-91 mph and touches 93-94. He also has an excellent curveball and a better feel for a changeup this year after he reduced his reliance on his curve. But Romero gets his highest grades for his makeup, temperament and competitive zeal. He is an excellent student of the game who understands the science of pitching, and is a master at controlling the tempo of a game. He often has one poor inning a game, gets mad at himself and responds by pitching better the rest of the way. He also holds runners well and fields his position as well as any college pitcher. He has improved by leaps and bounds since being a lightly recruited player from a suburban Los Angeles high school. He was the top prospect in the Great Lakes League after his freshman year and quickly established himself as one of the aces on last year?s College World Series championship team, going 14-4, 3.37 before becoming one of Team USA?s most effective pitchers last summer. He has posted similar numbers this year, but has considerably boosted his strikeout ratio from 7.3 per nine innings to 10.0.

---

 

Don't worry, not a Kotchman fetish, but how can you not love this guy? It's complete comments like these that leads me to believe that Romero is going to enjoy success at the big-league level.

[colbyjack]

BA updated their draft tracker this evening. Interesting note on Ryan Braun:

 

12. Ryan Braun, 3b, U. of Miami

5/24 Update: Always-secretive Brewers said to be eyeing Miami 3b with No. 5 pick if Gordon and Zimmerman are gone

[Mass Haas]

Speaking of Braun, link while active, text follows:

 

www.palmbeachpost.com/spo..._0525.html

 

20-20 no reach for Braun

By Jorge Milian

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

 

JACKSONVILLE ? A University of Miami player has never hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases in one season.

 

Ryan Braun, the Hurricanes' multi-talented third baseman who was named the ACC's player of the year on Monday night, could become the first.

 

Heading into today's ACC tournament game against North Carolina State, Braun has 16 home runs and 21 steals. A late-season surge in power could put the 6-foot-3, 204-pound Braun in the UM record book.

 

"Considering the players this school has produced, that would be unbelievable," UM outfielder Paco Figueroa said. "But Ryan does have that ability that you don't see a lot ? power and speed. I'm surprised he hasn't done it already."

 

Braun, a junior, likely won't get a chance to accomplish the feat next season. He is expected to go early in the Major League Baseball draft on June 7, possibly becoming the first UM player to be chosen in the first round since Pat Burrell was selected No. 1 overall in 1998.

 

"It would be a tribute to consistency which is something I pride myself in," Braun said of joining the 20-20 club. "It's difficult to do either thing."

 

A native of Granada Hills, Calif., Braun has made the difficult look easy since arriving at UM three years ago.

 

In his first season, Braun was named Baseball America's national freshman of the year after leading the Hurricanes in virtually every important offensive category. He also broke Burrell's school freshman RBI record of 64.

 

Last season, Braun was vying for national player of the year honors when he strained his rib cage while taking a swing against Florida State on April 10.

 

UM coach Jim Morris said he figured Braun would miss a game or two and then "all of a sudden, it was half a season."

 

Braun missed 18 games, but wasn't able to play in the field when he returned and was obviously affected at the plate.

 

"He had a great freshman year and when you get those accolades, what comes with that are expectations for the next season," said Joe Braun, Ryan's dad. "It was just frustrating for him."

 

A year later, Braun is making good on those expectations. Braun leads the ACC in RBI (71) and slugging percentage (.747) and ranks among the top five in batting average (.412), runs scored (68), on-base percentage (.490), home runs (16) and stolen bases (21).

 

Before this season, Braun was moved to third base from shortstop ? something he wasn't keen on. He had seven errors in UM's first 17 games.

 

"It's something I accepted, but it was definitely a difficult transition," said Braun, who has 15 errors in 54 games. "At short, you can pick your hop, while at third base the ball kind of plays you."

 

Major-league scouts have told Braun he could be moved to the outfield in the pros. No matter the position, Braun's bat and athleticism likely will put him somewhere in the first round. Baseball America lists Braun as the draft's 14th best prospect.

 

Though he was eligible out of high school, Braun hasn't been drafted.

 

"It's so unpredictable so I don't know what to expect or what to anticipate," Braun said. "I'm just trying to concentrate on finishing up strong and let the chips fall where they fall."

[Mass Haas]

Jim Callis draft chat today:

 

Q: Chris from Milwaukee, WI asks:

Can you give me an idea of which way the Brewers are going to go? If one of the better position players don't fall to them could they be thinking about a college pitcher?

 

A: Jim Callis: I can give you a guess. Few teams, if any, are more secretive than the Brewers when it comes to the draft. The best player that may be there for Milwaukee at No. 5 might be Wichita State RHP Mike Pelfrey or Tennessee RHP Luke Hochevar--and we don't know if the Brewers will take a Scott Boras client. A college pitcher would make a lot of sense for the Brewers, but there may not be a non-Boras guy worth taking that high. North Carolina high school OF Cameron Maybin would be the best guy on the board if the top four unfold as expected, so that's the best guess at this point.

[bjkrautk]

Wow, this thread fell down the page quickly:

 

Allan Simpson Draft Chat (6/3/2005)

 

Q: dave from maryland asks:

i hoping that the brewers take a college bat with the 5th pick like clement, bruan or possilby if gordon slips to milwaukee?

A: Allan Simpson: The Brewers are very secretive when it comes to tipping their hand, but there's no question that Gordon or Ryan Zimmerman would be made to order for a team that is thin at third base. If they believe that Braun can make the grade defensively at third base, he could be the pick. But don't rule out Clement, either, as he fits an organization need, or Cameron Maybin--especially if the Brewers continue a track record in Jack Zduriencik's reign as scouting director of focusing on high school players.

 

....

Q: Darron Wilde from Jefferson City, Missouri asks:

What is your mock top five look like?

A: Allan Simpson: It's the same top four as we had a couple of weeks ago: Upton No. 1 to the D-backs, Gordon No. 2 to the Royals, Tulowitzki No. 3 to the Mariners and Zimmerman No. 4 to the Nationals. As mentioned earlier, no one knows what Milwaukee will do at No. 5, but Maybin, Romero and Braun are three solid names for that spot.

 

Not exactly earth-shattering...or even anything we didn't already know, but it is more coverage.

[colbyjack]

No surprise, the D-Backs wisely continue to target Justin Upton with the #1 overall pick. From BA's draft blog:

 

June 3: Sources Say D'backs Want Upton

by Jim Callis and Kevin Goldstein

Two baseball sources say the Diamondbacks have told them they will use the No. 1 overall pick Tuesday on Great Bridge High (Chesapeake, Va.) shortstop Justin Upton. That would make Upton and his brother B.J., who went second overall to the Devil Rays in 2002, the highest-drafted siblings in draft history. The other players known to be under consideration by Arizona are college righthanders Craig Hansen (St. John's), Luke Hochevar (Tennessee) and Mike Pelfrey (Wichita State). The Diamondbacks signed former Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew to a $5.5 million major league contract four days ago, so Upton, who has had some defensive struggles at that position, could be their center fielder of the future. We'll have an updated mock first round at baseballamerica.com on Monday.

[batman]

Some more draft coverage from the Journal-Sentinel:

 

www.jsonline.com/sports/b...331050.asp

www.jsonline.com/sports/b...331060.asp

 

The first article discusses the compensation pick system, which Doug Melvin thinks is dumb, while the second discusses the Brewers' Canadian scouting program.

 

Also, Dayn Perry has a draft "basics" piece up on FoxSports.com:

 

msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3659854

 

EDIT: And here's an interesting piece from Alan Schwartz in the NYT.

 

www.nytimes.com/2005/06/0...mp;emc=rss

 

~Bill

[Mass Haas]

Jim Callis is Jim Powell's pre-game guest Sunday afternoon -- link to the audio interview later tonight.

[batman]

Speaking of Callis, here's an interesting article about the Cardinals' draft philosophy:

 

www.stltoday.com/stltoday...enDocument

 

On Jim Powell's pre-game show, Callis said that the Brewers were probably going to take either Tulo or Braun. He indicated that the top two picks would be Upton and Gordon and then the Mariners might take Tulo or someone else (Hochevar, perhaps) and the Nationals will likely take Zimmerman.

 

Not really anything groundbreaking, but it was interesting to hear Tulo's name come up.

 

~Bill

[Mass Haas]

Audio link of Jim Callis with Jim Powell:

 

javascript:launchpopup('www.jsonline.com/multimed...,525,325);

[Never Outhustled]

I really hope Tulo and Zimmerman are off the board when the Crew picks, because niether player hits with enough power for me. Brauns offensive numbers blow them away, and I don't see how either of them are more projectable than Braun.

 

Batman, that Alan Schwartz article you linked was outstanding. Thanks.

[bjkrautk]

I really hope Tulo and Zimmerman are off the board when the Crew picks, because niether player hits with enough power for me. Brauns offensive numbers blow them away, and I don't see how either of them are more projectable than Braun.

 

They do play this thing they call "defense" in major league baseball, right? It's hard to judge Braun's defense based on the past season, since Miami moved him from shortstop to third base. He committed a disconcerting number of errors early on, causing scouts to question whether he can actually stay at the position. His numbers look great for an infielder, but aren't quite as impressive for an outfielder (especially if Maybin is still available).

 

Zimmerman and Tulowitzki, by contrast, top the "Best Tools" lists for arm strength from a position player (Tulo, with Zimmerman second) and Best Defensive Player (Zimm, with Tulo fourth).

 

Also, as has been dissected in other threads, he hit below average with a wood bat last summer. Some scouts believe there is a hitch in his swing that will prevent him from producing similar results in the majors.

 

Numbers (as of Saturday or Sunday...varies by team.):

Braun - 207 AB, 82 H, 15 2b, 1 3b, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 32 BB, 38 SO || .396 / .479 / .725 / 1.214 OPS

Tulo - 152 AB, 53 H, 12 2b, 1 3b, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 14 BB, 35 SO || .349 / .431 / .599 / 1.030 OPS

Zimm - 234 AB, 92 H, 18 2b, 4 3b, 6 HR, 59 RBI, 31 BB, 14 SO || .393 / .469 / .581 / 1.050 OPS

[Katuluu]

He definately has a hitch. Watch Goron bat then watch Braun and it's very noticeable. Braun is a potential stud, but he worries me.

[molitor fan]

that 14/35 w/k ratio from Tulo is really troubling.....if that is the ratio in college ball, his first taste of minor league ball is going to be a bitter one I think.....reminds me of Scott Moore from that (narrow) perspective.