BA's Draft coverage picking up

[colbyjack]

It's that time of year, the draft stories really start to emerge this time of year. College baseball has already kicked off, and BA has started to focus on the 2005 draft. Brewerfan.net's draft coverage officially started with the launch of the new site design, but look for a feature story and updated rankings to kick off the '05 draft season within a week or two.

 

Two interesting stories hit BA's homepage this evening. One as a general overview of the draft and one talking about how owning the #1 overall selection is good in that you have the best chance to take the best player, but bad in that you have to pay an exorbitant amount of money:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...rview.html

www.baseballamerica.com/t...pulse.html

 

From the draft preview:

 

The Boras Factor

 

The hardest throwers in the draft are Baylor?s Mark McCormick and Georgia Tech?s Jason Neighborgall, who could go anywhere from the first round to the fifth, depending on how they perform this spring.

 

Along with Hochevar and Pelfrey, they are advised by agent Scott Boras, as is Greene. Scouting directors are wary that Boras? number of elite prospects in the draft is back up after his influence waned, and they acknowledge his presence is a factor. His two most prominent clients in the 2004 draft, Long Beach State righthander Jered Weaver (Angels, 12th overall) and Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks, 15th) remained unsigned through late January.

 

Boras isn?t the only agent who has dictated where players get drafted, of course. He pioneered the maneuver, however, and others have followed. The result? ?Just because you pick second,? Ladnier said, ?it doesn?t mean you?re going to get the second-best player. This is the highest draft pick in the history of our organization, and in theory, we?re supposed to get an impact player, a potential all-star. But a lot of times, you?re at the mercy of the draft.?

 

In this draft class, though, the talent and depth may be significant enough that even players selected more because of signability than talent could turn out to be impact players.

 

I knew Pelfrey, Neighborgall and McCormick were all Boras advisees, but hearing about Hochevar and Greene is particularly discouraging. Hopefully Boras will keep his touch of death off of the HS crop.

 

Although, this could play into the Brewers favor. With a new owner claiming he can't wait until the Brewers are in a position in which dealing with Boras isn't a negative, coupled with the fact that the Brewers don't have a 2nd round pick after signing Damian Miller, maybe the Brewers will be more aggressive with their first-round selection.

 

And by the way, I completely disagree with the AL scouting director that claimed this was a bad year to pick within the top 5 due to the lack of top-tier talent. Upton & Gordon alone make the top of the class special, and apparently neither one is associated with Boras. That doesn't mean they won't make a lot of money come draft day...

[colbyjack]

BA's early draft preview continues with a feature on Southern California's Sean O'Sullivan:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...livan.html

 

O'Sullivan is the player I walked away the most impressed with after watching the AFLAC All-American Classic. At the time more people seemed to prefer him as a hitter, and now that seems to have changed. If you saw his performance in the AFLAC game, you know why. He really knows how to pitch, shows no fear on the mound, and has an incredible curveball for a player his age.

 

BA subscribers can also view the top 100 HS prospects and the best prep tools feature.

[wibball]

Colbyjack,

Gut feeling. If the draft were today and the Crew had the pick.

Who are the top 5 on the WISH list?

Who are the top 5 on the NEEDS list?

 

If the lists are different, Why?

[colbyjack]

Since I haven't updated my top 30 prospect list yet, I'll share what will be my top 5 now, which would also reflect the wish list:

 

1. Justin Upton

2. Alex Gordon

3. Cameron Maybin

4. Jeff Clement

5. Justin Bristow

 

The needs list:

 

1. Alex Gordon

2. Jeff Clement

3. Justin Bristow

4. Luke Hochevar

5. Mike Pelfrey

 

I removed Upton & Maybin from the "needs" list because the team "needs" a 3B, C & pitching more than a SS/CF (Upton) and a CF/corner OF (Maybin). I wouldn't pass on Upton, or even Maybin (although I'm a little concerned about Maybin's swing) at this point in time should either one of them fall to our pick.

 

Hochevar and Pelfrey might disqualify themselves from the Brewers list because of their association with Scott Boras. If so, two out of Troy Tulowitzki, Sean O'Sullivan and Ricky Romero could take their places on the needs list.

[colbyjack]

BA has posted their early first-round projection on their homepage. It really isn't a mock draft, but a ranking of who they believe are the top 30 draft eligible prospects out there. They just list the picks by number, and then have a list of the draft order next to this projection.

 

While it's subscriber content, I will share that BA has Luke Hochevar, a RHP out of Tennessee, as the fifth best prospect.

[brettac1]

Are the Crew likely to have ANY chance at Upton at all? Or is he pretty much going to be a lock for #1?

 

Edit: Hochevar's UT stats

[colbyjack]

You can read more on Hochevar on this thread:

 

p092.ezboard.com/fbrewers...=713.topic

 

That was before I knew he was a Boras boy http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif

[colbyjack]

BA now turns it's sights to the college fellas, with a feature on Jason Neighborgall:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...rgall.html

 

Remember how funny/cool we thought it would be way back in 2001/2002 if Jason Neighborgall could pitch in the same rotation as Nick Neugebauer? Man, that joke was butchered worse than "Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos" at election time.

 

Good times.

 

Oh yeah, Allan Simpson chats about the '05 draft tomorrow at 1 pm CST. Maybe cress will emerge from his non-draft/hot stove hole http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[colbyjack]

Here's the transcript of today's chat:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/c...2005020301

 

I'm posting one of his answers here, not because I asked the question, but because it pertains to discussions we've had about Jeff Clement:

 

Q: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Patrick from Milwaukee, WI asks: Does Jeff Clement have the skills necessary to stay behind the plate, and does Troy Tulowitzki have the skills to stay at SS?

 

A: Allan Simpson: If there was any doubt that Clement wasn't a catcher or Tulowitzki a shortstop, that went away last summer while both played for Team USA. Clement showed all the qualities--particularly agility and quickeness--to be an everyday catcher while Tulowitzki showed the range, hands and acrobatic ability to be a major league shortstop.

[CC Badger]

What I have read is that this draft is deeper than in the past. With the Brewers needing help at 3B, C, and pitching do think that spending a first round pick on a need position outweighs the "best player available" tag? By all accounts Justin Upton, and Alex Gordon will be off the board when the Brewers select. Clement, Bristow, and Ryan Zimmerman may be around. It is conceivable that a shortstop may be around that can grow into a 3B prospect (Tulowitzki). If not perhaps 3B is in Hardy's future as well???

 

I do believe that in Jack Z's tenure he has taken the best player that they have on the board. I don't think that would change now. What if the player was a 1B? Do you spend a draft pick there? Hopefully the stars will align and the best player also fits a need with the club.

[cressj]

Colby...sorry for the absence http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I believe the Brewers have had a great offseason, I look forward to hearing who is picked #5 overall. I agree that it is discouraging the Greene picked Boras and I somewhat hope that Clement falls to us. I believe that HS talents like Upton and Maybin will definitely be gone. After that, I don't know.

[colbyjack]

CC Badger, I can tell you that the Brewers scouting department is well aware of their need for a 3B, but like you pointed out, they are not going to reach for one while passing on a better player. This may be a good year for those stars to align between need and best player available given the players you listed. Catcher is another position they will pounce on if an impact guy is there, which makes Clement a very realistic possibility.

 

I wouldn't factor Zimmerman into the 5th overall pick, unless the Brewers are looking for a budget pick for some reason. He just doesn't have the power to be a top 10 guy. If he enjoys a dramatic increase in power I suppose he could be there, but I don't see him doing that over the course of one spring.

 

What if the player was a 1B? Do you spend a draft pick there?

 

That's a tough question. If the 1B available was without a doubt the absolute best player available at our pick, yes, I would take him. At this point in time I don't think we have to worry about that. There are two 1B that could go in the first round, Stephen Head and John Mayberry Jr. Head is very steady, but I don't see him being head & shoulders better than anyone else at the 5th slot. Mayberry Jr. has a tremendous amount of potential, and if he really produces this spring he could be a legitimate pick at #5. However, he's athletic enough to handle a move to a corner OF spot similar to Corey Hart.

 

The strength at the top of this year's draft includes a few SS/3B prospects, one or two prep OFs, depending on if you view Upton as a CF or a SS, a power hitting catcher and several intriguing arms. You could take a player from any one of those areas and easily claim you filled a need.

 

And good to see you re-emerge cress.

[DHonks]

why not take a stud 1b if he fell to us? I mean, if Fielder has a good first half, we could ask for 3 stud prospects for him alone. You take the person with the best chance of making an impact while also factoring in injury, character, etc. You can always trade a stud for other studs

[aracko]

Weaver still isnt signed and I believe he has another week or so to get that contract ironed out before he will also be back in the draft. Again - A Boras Client, but is teh talent worth the risk?

[colbyjack]

Weaver still isnt signed and I believe he has another week or so to get that contract ironed out before he will also be back in the draft. Again - A Boras Client, but is teh talent worth the risk?

 

Unsigned non-draft & follow eligilble players have until a week before this June's draft to sign with the team that owns their signing rights, as long as they don't go back to school, and I don't think that's an issue with Weaver or Drew.

 

Is the talent worth the risk? No. I had Weaver #1 of all draft prospects all along last spring, but he's not worth what he's looking for (Prior money). There's a good story by John Manuel covering what's up with both Weaver & Drew:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...ebook.html

[colbyjack]

BA's recent draft notebook has come out today, adding some misc. notes and listing the top 10 draft eligible 3B:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...ebook.html

 

They have Virginia's Ryan Zimmerman considered as a high-first rounder. I think Zimmerman could be a fine hitter, and as they point out he is one of the finest defensive players in the country and easily the best defensive 3B, but he really hasn't hit for any power at Virginia, as his 4 home runs with Team USA last summer seem to be the reason people consider him a high-first round pick.

 

Either way, again it's nice to see this draft considered to be strong with 3B.

[colbyjack]

BA has posted their midseason college updates and rankings (all free for everyone to enjoy):

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...llege.html

 

There isn't a whole lot of movement, and no real surprises at this point in time. I don't see how Troy Tulowitzki can move up since he's been injured for more than a month, and I don't see how Cliff Pennington can fall (even if it is two spots) the way he has been playing. Jeremy Slayden is the most notable player that has soared up, but he's far from an unknown commodity. He should have been a first-rounder last year as a sweet-swinging corner outfielder. He injured his shoulder, and missed most of the '04 season, and I must say I'm happy to see him playing so well this season.

 

Here's the most recent edition of BA's draft notebook:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...ebook.html

 

Included are the top 10 middle infield prospects for the draft. And chalk one more talented player to the Boras list: Taylor Teagarden (sorry Bill).

 

And finally, a nice story on Cal State Fullerton LHP Ricky Romero:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/o...omero.html

[brettac1]

That's too bad, I was liking Teagarden quite a bot, epecially looking at those most recent numbers.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Didn't I read somewhere speculation that the Brewers would take Zimmerman? Maybe in the 2008 wild card preview. Hard to know what to make of that...I guess he's got the D to stick at 3b, but does he have enough power?

[colbyjack]

You're right SoCal, that Zimmerman blurb came in Callis' 2008 wildcard playoff prediction. Callis also had us taking Ian Kennedy in the 2006 draft (meaning we will suck again this year to be in a position to take Kennedy).

 

Zimmerman's power is a big question, but whenever it's brought up, people keeping pointing back to last summer during his time with Team USA. From yesterday's chat:

 

Q: Steve from Herndon, VA asks: About how many home runs must Ryan Zimmerman hit to ensure an early first round selection?

 

A: Will Kimmey: He probably doesn't need to hit another, though he likely will. Enough teams were sold on his bat last summer when he hit four HRs with wood. He's a gold glover at 3B. He's a first-rounder, and a possibility to sneak pretty high up the draft board if a team nabs him with signability in mind, paying him a bit less than slot for his spot.

 

And not only does he have the D' to stick at 3B, I've seen it mentioned several times that he could handle SS in a pinch. His profile is very similar to Jeff Cirillo's.

[colbyjack]

Baseball America has released their first Draft Tracker list, which is basically a list of their top 30 draft eligible prospects. Kudos to CarolinaTommy for calling out Miami's Cesar Carrillo and Oregon State's Jacoby Ellsbury as severely underrated draft prospects a couple of months ago:

 

BA's Draft Tracker

 

Mass Haas, any word on Massachussetts rising RHP Matt Torra out in your neck of the woods? I must say, this is the first I've heard about him.

 

The Brewers love rising prepsters (see Mark Rogers), so keep an eye on CJ Henry, who could play 3B.

 

CJ Henry player profile

[Mass Haas]

Mass Haas, any word on Massachussetts rising RHP Matt Torra out in your neck of the woods?

 

Sorry Patrick, UMass is out in the western part of the state and Atlantic 10 baseball doesn't get play around here, no surprise. Hey, I'm sure the Cardinals are happy with their first rounder last year, RHP Chris Lambert out of BC and the Big East, so Torra could follow suit.

 

I actually heard a brief sports radio discussion on the draft today, and an analyst mentioned Vermont LHP Derek Miller as a top New England college arm (and failed to mention the Brewers own his rights as a draft-and-follow). He guessed, as we did earlier, that Miller has moved himself in to the 5th-10th round range, so the Brewers will have to pony up a bit.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Well that didn't take long,

 

2nd question of the BA Chat . . .

 

Quote:

---

Q: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp dave from maryland asks:

who could the brewers take with the 5th pick in the june draft?

 

A: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp

John Manuel: The Brewers are great; Jack Zduriencik just takes the best player available, rarely goes over slot and still manages to get good players. We're hearing Maybin is a possiblity, and we also hear the Brewers could step out and take a pitcher represented by Scott Boras, which would mean either Mike Pelfrey of Wichita State or Tennessee's Luke Hochevar. One other thing about Milwaukee, it always plays the draft close to the vest under Jack Z.

 

---

[nikip43]

Without getting too off topic I went ahead and looked up the phrase "close to the vest" and found the answer here.

 

link

 

I may just be out of touch, but I don't that phrase is exactly mainstream, but it does describe our Brewers drafting philosophy to the tee...and I think that is the smartest way to play the draft. It stinks for draftniks seeking tidbits of info to make predictions, but overall we'll find out the pick relatively soon and I would rather have Milwaukee get the best player without tipping off the whole league than me getting an idea of what direction they will go.

[DuluthBrew]

Hey Colbyjack,

 

I was wondering about a few prospects that people on this site have thought highly of. The prospects are Tyler

Greene, Sean O'Sullivan, and Craig Hansen. In reading the baseball america chat today, they did not think too highly of Greene and O'Sullivan, but had great things to say about Hansen. I see you have Greene ranked 12th, but John Manual says he will not be a first round pick. He also says O'Sullivan might go to college. Did these players just now start dropping, or is it like the NFL where nobody really knows if guy is "rising" or "dropping" because the teams keep this information pretty guarded.