Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don't foresee a huge go for it trade, but if they are still in it at the deadline I could see a minor deal, maybe for Craig Breslow if the Twins fall off the pace or someone similar. Something like that shouldn't cost any of their top prospects, maybe just one or two of the guys the Brewers wouldn't have room for on the 40-man.

[adambr2]

I don't expect us to trade any imminent MLB ready top prospects like Hader, Brinson and Woodruff, and even guys like Diaz and Ray I think would take a lot to give up. I only ask if we do make any moves that they be for controllable assets, not rentals, and we only do it if we're actually contending, not treading water 5 games out of a WC spot with illusions we can make a run .

 

Its just fun to talk about the options now because in the recent past it really didn't matter if we wanted to make a move, our farm system was too bad for it to even be an option. Remember when we traded Erik Komatsu to the Cardinals? I'm pretty sure he was a top 3 prospect in our system at the time. What would 2011 Erik Komatsu be in this farm system? Top 15? Top 20?

[SandyTolan]

Guerra, Davies, Garza, Nelson, Anderson, maybe Lopez or Woodruff -- the way they've pitched lately (not including Guerra), that is a pretty decent rotation. Knebel as closer, and Peralta eventually as a strong setup guy, with Barnes, Torres, maybe Hader... I'd say that's looking pretty good. I would not give up top prospects for a guy (Quintana and his 4.4 ERA) who is struggling this year - he would likely replace someone who is doing just as well or better, and at a great cost. I'd say stick with what you've got, possibly promote from AAA/AA, until late July, then see where we are. No need to trade Garza now if he's learned how to adjust and really pitch, rather than relying on being a power pitcher.

[adambr2]

Guerra, Davies, Garza, Nelson, Anderson, maybe Lopez or Woodruff -- the way they've pitched lately (not including Guerra), that is a pretty decent rotation. Knebel as closer, and Peralta eventually as a strong setup guy, with Barnes, Torres, maybe Hader... I'd say that's looking pretty good. I would not give up top prospects for a guy (Quintana and his 4.4 ERA) who is struggling this year - he would likely replace someone who is doing just as well or better, and at a great cost. I'd say stick with what you've got, possibly promote from AAA/AA, until late July, then see where we are. No need to trade Garza now if he's learned how to adjust and really pitch, rather than relying on being a power pitcher.

 

I'm torn on Quintana, because this team could use an ace so badly, but I'm not sure he's it, and the return it would cost us would be an ace price.

 

I agree on the pen. Don't pay trade market prices for bullpen help, it's just too expensive. Between Knebel, Barnes, Peralta, and Hader, we have at least 4 guys who could profile as shutdown late inning arms, and other options available in the minors. I still think Wang will be up at some point if they want a lefty arm in the pen.

[tmwiese55]

Quintana is a proven high quality starter over several years. Maybe not traditional Ace level like you think of a Sale, Bumgarner, etc. But the next level of guys below. To disregard him because of 7 or 8 starts is foolish, some here just have to understand sample size and overreacting to hot/cold streaks. I'm not advocating breaking the bank for him, or anything like we're at the point to make such a move, just commenting on the notion that he's not that good because he hasn't been great this year yet.

 

Go back and look at Sabathia in 08 if you need an example or reminder to think big picture on stats.

[adambr2]

Quintana is a proven high quality starter over several years. Maybe not traditional Ace level like you think of a Sale, Bumgarner, etc. But the next level of guys below. To disregard him because of 7 or 8 starts is foolish, some here just have to understand sample size and overreacting to hot/cold streaks. I'm not advocating breaking the bank for him, or anything like we're at the point to make such a move, just commenting on the notion that he's not that good because he hasn't been great this year yet.

 

Go back and look at Sabathia in 08 if you need an example or reminder to think big picture on stats.

 

Yeah I'm not worried about Quintana's start. CC had an ERA near 4 when we acquired him.

 

I'm more open to Quintana because of the controllable nature of his contract. If he were a FA rental I wouldn't want us to waste our time.

[Oxy]

So, disregarding the dream scenario of getting a decent TOR starter that is not a rental--are there any other more traditional type of rentals we could pick up for fairly cheap at the deadline?

 

Assuming that Toronto continues to have most of their aging roster on the DL, they are done for the year. I'd have to think that we could pick up Marco Estrada for somebody like a Michael Reed, no? That might even be too much, and Estrada is pretty good and Reed is somewhere around our 25th best prospect buried a dozen guys deep in the OF. Who would not want to make that trade?

 

Who else could be picked up for cheap?

[adambr2]

So, disregarding the dream scenario of getting a decent TOR starter that is not a rental--are there any other more traditional type of rentals we could pick up for fairly cheap at the deadline?

 

Assuming that Toronto continues to have most of their aging roster on the DL, they are done for the year. I'd have to think that we could pick up Marco Estrada for somebody like a Michael Reed, no? That might even be too much, and Estrada is pretty good and Reed is somewhere around our 25th best prospect buried a dozen guys deep in the OF. Who would not want to make that trade?

 

Who else could be picked up for cheap?

 

I would do that with no hesitation but don't think that will be nearly enough. Estrada has been a pretty solid starter for the Jays the last few years. If they make him available at the deadline he'd be a pretty attractive rental for most contenders and it wouldn't take much to outbid an offer of Reed.

[MrTPlush]

Marco Estrada has been a pretty solid starter 5/6 years and two of those years were with us. Depends on how the market shakes out, but he would probably fetch a decent return for a rental. Though if we are really contending we could stomach it quite easily especially if we can use an OFer to help make it happen.

[Oxy]

Who else could be picked up for cheap?

 

I would do that with no hesitation but don't think that will be nearly enough. Estrada has been a pretty solid starter for the Jays the last few years. If they make him available at the deadline he'd be a pretty attractive rental for most contenders and it wouldn't take much to outbid an offer of Reed.

 

Of course if there were a bidding war, somebody would offer more than just Reed--but the point is there are guys other than just Estrada too. Who might they be, and how much would we be willing to give up? Matt Cain? Who else?

[adambr2]

Who else could be picked up for cheap?

 

I would do that with no hesitation but don't think that will be nearly enough. Estrada has been a pretty solid starter for the Jays the last few years. If they make him available at the deadline he'd be a pretty attractive rental for most contenders and it wouldn't take much to outbid an offer of Reed.

 

Of course if there were a bidding war, somebody would offer more than just Reed--but the point is there are guys other than just Estrada too. Who might they be, and how much would we be willing to give up? Matt Cain? Who else?

 

That's the problem though, I think we'd run into this with anyone worth acquiring.

 

I don't think there is going to be a rental starter available for cheap that represents an upgrade over the 5 best starters we already have.

 

You could maybe take on a bad contract like Cain to help mitigate any bidding war, but I don't even see him being an upgrade over what we have.

[Oxy]

There is no way Tampa can keep up with Bos, NY, and Baltimore this year. I'd sell the farm for Archer, but that won't happen. What about Cobb or Odorizzi or Andriese or Snell?

[adambr2]

There is no way Tampa can keep up with Bos, NY, and Baltimore this year. I'd sell the farm for Archer, but that won't happen. What about Cobb or Odorizzi or Andriese or Snell?

 

Andriese doesn't really interest me, Snell is young and cheap and controllable and would probably cost a ton.

 

I would love Odorizzi back, and he's got a few more years of control, but that will make him rather expensive too. I don't expect a Quintana price tag on him, but something like Ray + Diplan + Reed wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

Cobb is a true rental and probably the most realistic, but he's already got an interested market in him.

 

All of these guys probably COULD be had if we want to meet the price tag, but none of them are going to slip under the radar and be available for cheap.

[JohnBriggs12]

Rent Zack Cozart? Most contenders are well set at SS which weakens his market. Arcia's the future but Cozart could provide a boost for the stretch and provide a big immediate upgrade.

[MrTPlush]

I'd imagine the Brewers would just internally promote someone to be in the rotation before they start selling off valuable pieces of our farm system. Brandon Woodruff could be just as good as Odorizzi. Especially when the league doesn't know him he could put up surprisingly good stats(Jungmann/Guerra).

 

Trading Top 15 prospects at this juncture would be a pretty questionable move and I highly doubt Stearns would even consider it. We should be talking about trades that are a whole lot less expensive. Being controllable for 2.5 years isn't a good reason to be trading top prospects. Think small if you want to dream on us buying at the deadline.

[SandyTolan]

It's just not worth getting into buy mode at this point. Promoting from below and adding from the DL can do the trick.

 

Right now the bullpen of Knebel, Peralta, Barnes, Torres, Oliver and Hughes can be excellent. With Garza reborn, Davies coming around, Guerra coming back and Nelson looking good - that really can be a decent rotation. I'd say, stay the course.

[mlloyd10]

Stay the course unless someone offers you a trade that can help you more than just this yr.... For example if the pirates Call you about Cole.

 

You trade Ray/Ortiz/Erceg/Diaz

[yfinn6]

I'd imagine the Brewers would just internally promote someone to be in the rotation before they start selling off valuable pieces of our farm system. Brandon Woodruff could be just as good as Odorizzi. Especially when the league doesn't know him he could put up surprisingly good stats(Jungmann/Guerra).

 

Trading Top 15 prospects at this juncture would be a pretty questionable move and I highly doubt Stearns would even consider it. We should be talking about trades that are a whole lot less expensive. Being controllable for 2.5 years isn't a good reason to be trading top prospects. Think small if you want to dream on us buying at the deadline.

 

I agree with all of this. I want to win, and I think this team is good but I think we can be better just by promoting from within and cycling-in performing players. I don't think the time is right to sell off pieces just yet (in 2017).

[JosephC]

This would be my trade strategy if the Brewers are somewhere around 10 games over .500 a week into July.

 

Overall strategy changes from rebuilding/seller to hold/limited buyer.

 

The one big exception is Braun. Even if he's back and playing well, I'm now in dump him as soon as possible mode. Just too many questions regarding how many games he'll appear in between now and the end of 2020.

 

I'd pull all the rest of the continuing major league pieces off the board. After that I would add Lewis Brinson, Corey Ray, Isan Diaz, Luis Ortiz, Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff to the untradeable list.

 

After that I would have all options open. Would only trade Brett Phillips or Mauricio Dubon if it returned a plus starting pitcher. However, also would assume that Phillips and/or Dubon would not be enough to return a starter that would be an upgrade like Odorizzi or Estrada (would have to think other teams would be willing to significantly outbid for starting pitchers of that quality). So I'd officially be a buyer, but would probably only be willing to use ammunition that would return bullpen pieces or bats to fill in for whatever injuries occur between now and the end of July.

[superfly]

Now is the time you try to buy on Quintana considering he has team control left, not if he's 5-0 with a 1.1 ERA.

[superfly]

Now is the time you try to buy on Quintana considering he has team control left. I would absolutely be all for this. Not only is he a really good lefty but he also goes deep into games (7-8IP). We have lacked that for years, and it would take some heat off the bullpen.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

The highly valued pieces I'd be willing to part with starts and ends with Hader, Clark, and Ray. Mind you I'm a huge believer in Ray.

[adambr2]

Quintana had like 3 rough starts to the season and his ERA since then is something like 2.70. There's no discount coming for him.

[trwi7]

Quintana had like 3 rough starts to the season and his ERA since then is something like 2.70. There's no discount coming for him.

 

Right? It doesn't work both ways. You can't say he's an ace who just had a couple of rough starts and then expect the White Sox to not think the same way. They put a Sale price on him and that isn't changing based on 8 starts.

[adambr2]

Interesting tidbit from MLBtraderumors:

 

"The Brewers entered Saturday having posted the same record as Arizona (25-18, with a plus-34 run differential), and their success is a “potential nightmare” for general manager David Stearns, one executive told Rosenthal. It’s doubtful Stearns believes the franchise’s rebuild is complete, yet owner Mark Attanasio might push to add, not subtract, if Milwaukee hangs around the playoff race in the coming months, per Rosenthal. "

 

I don't know what the answer is this year, but I only ask that Mark leave it up to Stearns. Don't meddle. Let him make the call here on what is done, whether we're in 1st or last. He got you this far.