Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?

[tmwiese55]

Besides Braun and Garza I really don't think there's anything left to sell. All other guys are young and/or under years and years of control.

 

Which is exactly why there's plenty of guys to sell. Santana, Villar, Broxton, Thames, Shaw, Pina. If these guys keep hitting they have tremendous value. Window is not here yet, what we have right now is fool's gold. This rotation is horrible, and the bullpen not much better. it's nowhere near as simple as just plugging in Woodruff and Hader.

 

People ask all the time how long will the rebuild take? Impossible to know, but that time will be when they have a legit rotation. But hey, that's how I feel today. Strange things happen in sports, and come the end of July let's see what's shaking. I'm open -minded about making any move at all, but as of today...SELL SELL SELL.

 

I don't know if you read the rest of my post, but we're trying to win starting next year or at least the year after. If they're good, why would you dump them just to hope the next batch is good. I suppose you did say it's fools gold, so you don't think they're legitimately good. But besides Pina all the guys listed are in prime age and weren't late bloomers (think McGehee, Brady Clark types that you expect to crash back to reality) so you could expect them to be legit players. And if I remember right Pina has been hitting well for a couple years in the minors now, so who knows maybe he just needed a chance.

 

I agree this is fools gold in that the pitching is so bad that it's eventually going to catch up to us. But I don't see any reason to think these hitters aren't legit players. So we trade them all, and hope the next batch in AA/AAA is as good as them. Well, let's say the first guy up is Brinson and he does well to finish this year and is good into next years deadline, do we trade him? You have to win at some point and not just keep thinking the grass is always greener.

[MrTPlush]

Quintana would start with either Brinson/Hader and take another Top 100 prospect easily, and more promising guys like Dubon etc. it would take way more than the ideas people are throwing around here.

 

I threw out Ray/Diaz/Phillips/Diplan which I don't agree is that far off at all. That's a top 30, a top 60, and borderline top 100s which include a guy who was a top 50 and is off to a great start in AAA.

 

Maybe you'd have to substitute Brinson for Ray but if you do, Brinson/Diaz/Phillips/Diplan seems more than fair to me. Maybe substitute Clark for Phillips if you're dealing Brinson instead of Ray.

 

Would depend on the other teams view of Ray at this point.

[FVBrewerFan]

No, I read your entire post. I think they're trying to win every year. But when can they legitimately be a "true" contender? I don' think we can say next year or the year after. It all depends on the rotation, and they could be good enough next year, or it could be 3-5 more years. I know, doesn't look good in a marketing campaign if you're the Brewers, but it's true.

 

You referenced above "trading all of them." That's not what I'm talking about, it's that all of them should be on the market. They won't end up trading most of them. Stearns has shown the ability to find guys like Villar, Broxton, Pina, Bandy, Thames, Aguilar, Shaw, etc. giving up little or nothing. So even if the farm doesn't produce a replacement at a given position, I trust Stearns to be able to plug holes when the time comes.

 

But you can't just plug holes in the rotation. That's why, if the offer is right, they need to flip a couple bats/ Knebel, etc. to find more high ceiling pitchers. We will probably never have a Kershaw, and that's ok, but we do need 5 pitchers you feel good about starting. Today there's not a single SP we can say that about.

 

We can't dictate which player(s) someone is willing to give up that type of pitching for. Maybe it takes Thames. Maybe a package of Broxton, Knebel, Lopez, and Coulter. For the right return, you have to be ready to deal anyone at all.

[NievesNoNO]

It's possible, but the Brewers pitching is soo bad it'll take some internal improvements by way of role shifting/promotions to get things respectable. They'd really need to get the pitching somewhere towards the middle of the pack to have a real shot. The offense is legit. There will be slumps with the swing and miss in their game but the versatility of the group I think maybe can negate some of that by being able to play more of the hot bats.

 

Peralta and Nelson should be moved to the pen to see if their stuff can play there. There are multiple arms in the system that could replace their rotation spot and be no worse.

 

Jason Vargas might be a nice target, IF down the road they were able to fill some gaps internally. Reality is, there's probably just too many holes pitching wise to really make buying at the deadline a good idea.

 

It's nice that we're having the conversation though.... things are looking up

[nate82]

 

My guess is that's closer to what the A's may get/take for Sonny Gray. Gray is only controllable through 2019 and has more question marks than Quintana at this point however.

 

You are over valuing Gray by a lot. The A's will be lucky to get 1 top 100 for Gray let alone multiple top 20's in an organization. Gray has about the same value as Nelson does.

[tmwiese55]

No, I read your entire post. I think they're trying to win every year. But when can they legitimately be a "true" contender? I don' think we can say next year or the year after. It all depends on the rotation, and they could be good enough next year, or it could be 3-5 more years. I know, doesn't look good in a marketing campaign if you're the Brewers, but it's true.

 

You referenced above "trading all of them." That's not what I'm talking about, it's that all of them should be on the market. They won't end up trading most of them. Stearns has shown the ability to find guys like Villar, Broxton, Pina, Bandy, Thames, Aguilar, Shaw, etc. giving up little or nothing. So even if the farm doesn't produce a replacement at a given position, I trust Stearns to be able to plug holes when the time comes.

 

But you can't just plug holes in the rotation. That's why, if the offer is right, they need to flip a couple bats/ Knebel, etc. to find more high ceiling pitchers. We will probably never have a Kershaw, and that's ok, but we do need 5 pitchers you feel good about starting. Today there's not a single SP we can say that about.

 

We can't dictate which player(s) someone is willing to give up that type of pitching for. Maybe it takes Thames. Maybe a package of Broxton, Knebel, Lopez, and Coulter. For the right return, you have to be ready to deal anyone at all.

 

Gotcha, yea that's a very reasonable way to look at it. I suppose the other direction would be to trade our prospects to fix the pitching. The route you're talking, we know we have position players but need some youth pitching to pan out. So now we trade our proven position players whom we control for 6ish years for most, for more pitching prospects. Now we need the pitchers in minors and the hitters in minors to pan out. The way I'm saying your lineup is covered and you only need luck on pitching, rather than both. Those are the options, no clear answer that I'm willing to argue about as they could reasonably go any way.

 

But I get what you're saying. Deep down I think we'd have more fear a guy like Broxton isn't legit this good since we've such horrible down times from him. So if you can cash out knowing Brinson is right behind, yea I see the logic. Or take Santana, if he keeps going along a 260/360 type line with decent power but blah D. Maybe you decide to cash out and swing for the fences on the next guy since you can't move him 1B anymore because of Thames. I get all that, but if the teams in contention i don't see how you pull those moves. If they're individually doing the same thing but team is losing due to pitching being awful, then it makes it a heck of a lot easier to justify.

[adambr2]

I'm not normally a big fan of the previous regime's strategy of using prospects as trade currency.

 

However, I think we have a pretty unique OF situation. Look at all the current MLB players in our system that are already at least average or well above average players in our lineup, and capable of playing the OF: Thames, Braun, Santana, Broxton, and Perez. All of these guys are already probably above average players, just in different ways. Maybe Santana is "just" average at this point.

 

Now in addition to those 5, we have two highly elite OF prospects in Brinson and Ray, and multiple very good OF prospects in Phillips, Cordell, and Clark. I may even be missing some. Something has to give, we can't keep all these guys. Sure, some of them aren't going to pan out, but one thing that they pretty much all have right now is trade value, and some a very good deal of it.

[A Swing and A Drive]

 

My guess is that's closer to what the A's may get/take for Sonny Gray. Gray is only controllable through 2019 and has more question marks than Quintana at this point however.

 

You are over valuing Gray by a lot. The A's will be lucky to get 1 top 100 for Gray let alone multiple top 20's in an organization. Gray has about the same value as Nelson does.

 

Nelson has nowhere near the value of Sonny Gray. The difference in talent between these two is pretty sizable.

 

I think this will be proven if Sonny is traded before the deadline this year, like I believe he will. The return will be significant.

 

I'm not even sure the Brewers will get any trade interest in Jimmy Nelson, to be honest. Hopefully he has a wonderful rest of this season and I'm proven wrong. But I'm sure if that's the case, the Brewers may lean on keeping him anyway.

[nate82]

 

My guess is that's closer to what the A's may get/take for Sonny Gray. Gray is only controllable through 2019 and has more question marks than Quintana at this point however.

 

You are over valuing Gray by a lot. The A's will be lucky to get 1 top 100 for Gray let alone multiple top 20's in an organization. Gray has about the same value as Nelson does.

 

Nelson has nowhere near the value of Sonny Gray. The difference in talent between these two is pretty sizable.

 

I think this will be proven if Sonny is traded before the deadline this year, like I believe he will. The return will be significant.

 

I'm not even sure the Brewers will get any trade interest in Jimmy Nelson, to be honest. Hopefully he has a wonderful rest of this season and I'm proven wrong. But I'm sure if that's the case, the Brewers may lean on keeping him anyway.

 

Three years ago and you are right Gray has more value but now not even close as they both have about the same value and talent wise I just don't see it anymore with Gray. I watched a few of his starts last year and he looks like a shell of what he was 3 years ago. Right now Gray looks like a #4 or #5 type starter not someone I would give up much more than I am willing to give up for Nelson.

[adambr2]

Gray is a guy who put up basically ace caliber numbers every year up until last year and had a huge down year.

 

Nelson is more of a guy who has just been more or less a consistently mediocre starter his whole career.

 

Gray obviously has some big red flags after last year but his best has been far superior to anything we've seen from Nelson, and he still has far superior career numbers even after last year. Value wise I really don't think they are that close.

[reillymcshane]

Brewers Get:

-Jose Quintana

-David Robertson

 

White Sox Get:

Jorge Lopez

Brett Phillips

Marcos Diplan

Corey Ray

Marcos Dubon

I'm don't really think we'll be in a buying position this summer, but I'll play this for fun, using your proposal as a starting point.

 

For Quintana and Robertson, I would propose the following: Hader, Santana, Dubon and one of Phillips/Cordell.

 

Hader offers a potential replacement for Quintana. The White Sox have the 3rd fewest HRs in the league. Santana would be a big bat that could take over for Melky Cabrera.

 

Diplan is a live arm - helps build depth. Dubon offers a potential starter - probably 2B - in the near future. The Sox have terrible middle infield depth in the minors.

 

Cordell or Phillips offers a flawed, but interesting bat for the near future.

 

Plus, remember the Sox unload a lot of salary - which I'm sure would be attractive to them.

 

The big issues would be the White Sox's view of Hader and Santana. If they view Hader as a reliever and/or Santana as a liability because of his stiff defense - it probably doesn't work.

 

Brewers simply bring up Brinson to play OF in place of Santana - just the defensive upgrade would be worth it. Dealing Hader is a risk - but hey, you can't get something good by just dealing your spare parts.

 

Otherwise, the inclusion of Ray would be interesting. He's a Chicago kid and grew up a Sox fan. They might love the idea of getting him.

[And That]

With Hader, I'm not sure what his trade value is. If the Brewers offer him up, they'd be the third team in four years to do so. At some point, other teams are going to wonder why three teams have been so willing to give him up.

[KCBrewerfan34]

There is ZERO chance Hader goes in a deal for Qunitana IMHO, Q has been pretty average this year. WAY PASS

[adambr2]

It's 8 starts. He's still striking out almost a batter an inning, but most importantly, it's 8 starts. CC Sabathia had an ERA near 4 when we traded for him.

 

Quintana has 150+ starts under his belt suggesting he's a frontline starter. The White Sox are not lowering their asking price based on 8 starts.

 

I'd rather trade Brinson than Hader simply because of the need for pitching in our system vs. our need for outfielders, but one or the other is probably an absolute must in a deal to even start discussions.

[RobDeer 45]

Taking some risks on pitchers like Gray, with question marks, would be a good strategy in the coming years. Both by trade and free agency. If one or two hit, that can help a ton. If not, we shouldn't be out too much. Ultimately we have to figure out a way to develop some young pitching to be our core.

[adambr2]

Taking some risks on pitchers like Gray, with question marks, would be a good strategy in the coming years. Both by trade and free agency. If one or two hit, that can help a ton. If not, we shouldn't be out too much. Ultimately we have to figure out a way to develop some young pitching to be our core.

 

True. Unfortunately we have said this for many years.

[Never Outhustled]

I'd like the Brewers be both buyers and sellers at the deadline. The A's have done that before, why not us?

[MrTPlush]

I'd trade Hader over Brinson. If Hader looked like a starter it would be a different story, but he looks more like a reliever in my opinion. Of course I can understand why one wouldn't since he is a pitcher and so many fans are in love with pitching prospects. Whether that is justified or not I don't know.

[wildcat2237]

I'd trade Hader over Brinson. If Hader looked like a starter it would be a different story, but he looks more like a reliever in my opinion. Of course I can understand why one wouldn't since he is a pitcher and so many fans are in love with pitching prospects. Whether that is justified or not I don't know.

 

When I watch Hader I see Andrew Miller.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hader is one of the guys we will have step in to the bullpen. Helping the team will make him a non trade guy. Woodruff in rotation as well. A trade for Q starts at Brinson. Youd probably then give up Ortiz(ouch), 1 of Bickford-Diplan-Freddy Peralta-Lopez, one wild card depending on the previous 1 taken. Supak-Feliciano-Lara-Cordell.

 

Theres no way we get through a Q deal without parting with 2 pitchers in our minors. If Hader and Woodruff are helping this team Ortiz falls on the grenade as 1st Pitcher to offer which makes a lot of sense because he's looking at posting Q numbers.

After Ortiz pitcher 2 is sorta who do the Sox like? Same with the 4th piece. If theres one. Im not sure Id give a 4th if its Brinson, Ortiz, and Diplan.

 

About Sonny Gray. He had Ace appeal. Dropped to a #4. Is under-sized proving to that wart on draft day questions. Itd be terrible to offer more than 1 top 100 for him with the depth we could add. Hes such a wildcard currently trending down, he's not a fixer worth wasting for this team in a rebuilding year. Not like Quintana who offers solidity atop the rotation.

 

With the Sox in a rebuild year. You could probably send off Nelson, Anderson, or Peralta to fill out the loss of Q for innings eating. Peralta #1 on that idea, if hes still on the team at this point.

[JohnBriggs12]

If the Brewers are close they should go and get Mike Minor from the Royals. Maybe even.take Soria off their hands too if they pick up some salary.

[JosephC]

Quintana has a surplus value of right around 100 million IMO.

 

If I'm the White Sox GM, this are the approximate surplus value I'd put on the Brewer prospects:

-Lewis Brinson = 60 million

-Josh Hader = 28 million

-Corey Ray = 25 million (downgraded because he hasn't hit with the wood bat yet)

-Isan Diaz = 23 million

-Luiz Ortiz = 20 million

-Brandon Woodruff = 20 million

-Brett Phillips = 12 million

-Trent Clark = 10 million

-Lucas Erceg = 10 million

-Mauricio Dubon = 10 million

-Marcos Diplan = 10 million

-Phil Bickford = 10 million

-Jorge Lopez = 10 million

-Ryan Cordell = 10 million

-Corbin Burnes = 10 million

-Jake Gatewood = 10 million

-everybody else (provided I haven't forgotten anybody) = 5 million

 

Again, putting myself in the White Sox GM chair, I would initially shoot higher than the moon and after bidding down I'd need something like this to motivate me to trade Quintana:

 

Brewers get:

LHP - Jose Quintana

 

White Sox get:

OF - Lewis Brinson

RHP - Brandon Woodruff

OF - Brett Phillips

RHP - Corbin Burnes

 

To move Quintana I'd make Brinson a requirement, one of Hader/Ortiz/Woodruff a requirement and 20-25 million more in surplus value a requirement.

 

From the Brewer perspective, I'd love to see Quintana in a Brewer uniform but trading for a player like this would just un-do too much of the rebuilding work that Stearns/Melvin have accomplished up to this point.

[A Swing and A Drive]

If the Brewers are close they should go and get Mike Minor from the Royals. Maybe even.take Soria off their hands too if they pick up some salary.

 

Interesting "buy low" type target the Brewers should be considering. However, I'm just not convinced that Minor is an upgrade over anyone in our current rotation, let alone adding him to block innings from some of our AAA starters that are ready.

 

He reminds me of Brandy Beachy and would have made some sense where the Brewers where at rebuilding stage a year ago. I don't expect much of anything out of him anymore and feel he's at the crossroads of his career. I'm not sure I'd even pluck him of the waiver wire to be honest.

 

In a similar vein, I think the Brewers are a year or even two early on going after a controllable pitcher like Quintana. Just not the right time yet, IMO.

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers get:

 

Quintana

 

White Sox get :

 

Hader

 

Phillips

 

Ortiz

 

Diaz

[JohnBriggs12]

If the Brewers are close they should go and get Mike Minor from the Royals. Maybe even.take Soria off their hands too if they pick up some salary.

 

Interesting "buy low" type target the Brewers should be considering. However, I'm just not convinced that Minor is an upgrade over anyone in our current rotation, let alone adding him to block innings from some of our AAA starters that are ready.

 

He reminds me of Brandy Beachy and would have made some sense where the Brewers where at rebuilding stage a year ago. I don't expect much of anything out of him anymore and feel he's at the crossroads of his career. I'm not sure I'd even pluck him of the waiver wire to be honest.

 

In a similar vein, I think the Brewers are a year or even two early on going after a controllable pitcher like Quintana. Just not the right time yet, IMO.

 

 

Minor is a bullpen rental. He's a FA after this year. He's been very good out of Royals pen.