Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?

[adambr2]

This just in, the Cubs lost AGAIN

 

Please stop posting about last year. The Cubs in 2017 are not the 2016 Cubs. Stearns has an opportunity to go for this. we are going to see if he can pull it off. HE will win EOY and Counsell will win MOY if they make the playoffs, don't mortgage the future but use prospects to fill in our holes. All these minor leaguers cannot make the bigs with us.

 

It's June. Less than halfway through the season. I'm not saying they have no shot but a 2 game division lead in June is totally meaningless. Whether you compare the Cubs to last year or not it's very evident they're underachieving and will likely go on a run at some point.

[LouisEly]

The Cubs got lucky last year. They were not as good defensively as they statistically showed last year, and their rotation was healthy for the entire season. Remember, they could have easily lost to the Giants in the NLDS last year, and they were down 3 games to 1 in the World Series. They were/are not this juggernaut that some think they are. Now you take a big step back defensively with Schwarber in LF, you get a couple of injuries to the rotation and boom... back to Earth.

[adambr2]

The Cubs got lucky last year. They were not as good defensively as they statistically showed last year, and their rotation was healthy for the entire season. Remember, they could have easily lost to the Giants in the NLDS last year, and they were down 3 games to 1 in the World Series. They were/are not this juggernaut that some think they are. Now you take a big step back defensively with Schwarber in LF, you get a couple of injuries to the rotation and boom... back to Earth.

 

I don't think the Cubs being down 3-1 in the World Series last year is a very good case for them not being that good. I do agree there's an element of luck to them winning 103, but there's also been an element of bad luck for them to be under . 500 right now. They are still a very talented team due for some positive regression to the mean and we are kidding ourselves if we think they are going to hover around . 500 all year. Their starting pitching is without a doubt their biggest question mark, but they have both the prospects and money to do something about it, and I have no doubt we will.

 

None of this is me saying we can't or won't do it. Do I think the odds are still very much against us, yes, but I don't think many of us would even have put us in this position in June. We have plenty of internal improvements we can make as well, particularly with the bullpen and outfield. But we'll have to start picking it up a notch to be in this all the way.

[igor67]

Poker, Poker, Poker. The perspective that gets lost in this type of debate as people tend to shoehorn (whether they intend to or not) others into 'win now' vs. 'complete the rebuild', is that Poker actually provides a pretty good model for thinking about team level strategy. Those players never tell themselves on seeing they've got pocket aces "that was a really good start, but I wasn't planning a move until later" Instead they understand (at the pro level) the role that luck plays, but also fully integrate the cards as they have been dealt.

Undoubtedly we've been lucky, but a number of players have broken out so much (Thames is a clear case) that any preseason estimation of our talent level is just off which is part of the benefit of younger players some the 'luck' factor with them is not variation around established talent level it is these breakouts. So while we are not 'halfway' we are only 2 weeks from that point, and a 2 game lead 2 weeks from today probably translates conservatively into a 40% playoff chance which is worth raising a little bit to stay in the hand.

Luckily we have plenty of young prospects to try out in many places and avoid big expensive trades (see first comment about breaking the dichotomy). But would I trade a Ryan Cordell for a solid middle reliever with a positive track record? Sure. Would I be willing to do a Billy Beane style buying and selling trade involving Braun that lands us a middle of the rotation starter and other bits and pieces. Sure

[clancyphile]

Poker, Poker, Poker. The perspective that gets lost in this type of debate as people tend to shoehorn (whether they intend to or not) others into 'win now' vs. 'complete the rebuild', is that Poker actually provides a pretty good model for thinking about team level strategy. Those players never tell themselves on seeing they've got pocket aces "that was a really good start, but I wasn't planning a move until later" Instead they understand (at the pro level) the role that luck plays, but also fully integrate the cards as they have been dealt.

Undoubtedly we've been lucky, but a number of players have broken out so much (Thames is a clear case) that any preseason estimation of our talent level is just off which is part of the benefit of younger players some the 'luck' factor with them is not variation around established talent level it is these breakouts. So while we are not 'halfway' we are only 2 weeks from that point, and a 2 game lead 2 weeks from today probably translates conservatively into a 40% playoff chance which is worth raising a little bit to stay in the hand.

Luckily we have plenty of young prospects to try out in many places and avoid big expensive trades (see first comment about breaking the dichotomy). But would I trade a Ryan Cordell for a solid middle reliever with a positive track record? Sure. Would I be willing to do a Billy Beane style buying and selling trade involving Braun that lands us a middle of the rotation starter and other bits and pieces. Sure

 

True, but as I said, I want to try to fill holes in-house first.

 

I see no reason to trade off a Cordell for a "proven" middle reliever when we have a Brent Suter or Wei-Chung Wang who might be just as good numbers-wise. If we need a bat off the bench, why not see if Cordell can be the answer, instead of giving up a Jon Perrin or Cody Ponce?

 

I have less worry about flipping a Ryan Aguilar for a piece, because Ryan Cordell or Garrett Cooper are people who could probably contribute as a backup at first base.

 

I personally think of this as more akin to blackjack. The Brewers know roughly what they have, and what the other teams have, and if you are skilled enough at counting the cards (i.e., evaluating the prospects), they can make the right bets (decide when to double down, or split up both the aces).

[KCBrewerfan34]

1 7th inning good bullpen arm. Thats all I'm asking for. That won't kill the rebuild. Management is almost being cruel trotting Peralta, Torres and Feliz out there.

[trwi7]

1 7th inning good bullpen arm. Thats all I'm asking for. That won't kill the rebuild. Management is almost being cruel trotting Peralta, Torres and Feliz out there.

 

The cost of good bullpen arms compared to the value they provide is not something we should be doing. Flip through guys in the minors and see if you can get a contributor there instead of paying insane prices for relievers.

[mlloyd10]

Bring up Bowdien Derby or Wei-Chung Wang

[KCBrewerfan34]

1 7th inning good bullpen arm. Thats all I'm asking for. That won't kill the rebuild. Management is almost being cruel trotting Peralta, Torres and Feliz out there.

 

The cost of good bullpen arms compared to the value they provide is not something we should be doing. Flip through guys in the minors and see if you can get a contributor there instead of paying insane prices for relievers.

 

 

Every middle reliever can't bring a king's ransom. I don't believe that. FA to be guys, older guys, teams looking to whack salary. We have a lot of good prospects. Let's hope we have a good night tonight as well!

 

 

 

GO Brew

[Eye Black]

Reminder that other organizations view the Brewers as potential buyers...

 

@Bill_MLBScout: Let's play 2 Carolina (Brewers) vs Potomac (Nationals) heavy hitters on hand to scout both clubs. LH Guillbeau left solid impression on Thur.

[reillymcshane]

I think the most realistic thing we could 'buy' at the deadline is some bullpen depth - which is a tread in of itself. The other areas could be a catcher if there was an injury. And maybe a starter if there were multiple injuries.

 

One thing the club has is depth in most places to cover things if there is an injury. Aguilar at 1B if Thames gets hurt. If Arcia or Villar is hurt, Sogard goes to 2B (Villar could shift SS if Arcia was down). Perez could fill in at 3B for Shaw. OF depth is Phillips and Brinson. Catcher might be the only position the team would look outside the org as Susac is really struggling at AAA.

 

As for starting pitchers - it's Woodward. After that, they would maybe pick up someone if a couple of starters went down. But the club might still turn to the minor league guys instead - Jungmann, Lopez - or shift Hader back to the rotation.

 

Relievers are the biggest area would could probably make a deal for. We have lots of young options - Suter, Lopez, Hader, Wang, etc. - but the club might want a couple of more proven guys. Drake, Peralta, Torres, Hughes, Barnes - none of these guys is doing great. If someone tanks, I could see some depth added (especially if the team tries some of the minor league guys and finds them lacking).

[KCBrewerfan34]

I think the most realistic thing we could 'buy' at the deadline is some bullpen depth - which is a tread in of itself. The other areas could be a catcher if there was an injury. And maybe a starter if there were multiple injuries.

 

One thing the club has is depth in most places to cover things if there is an injury. Aguilar at 1B if Thames gets hurt. If Arcia or Villar is hurt, Sogard goes to 2B (Villar could shift SS if Arcia was down). Perez could fill in at 3B for Shaw. OF depth is Phillips and Brinson. Catcher might be the only position the team would look outside the org as Susac is really struggling at AAA.

 

As for starting pitchers - it's Woodard. After that, they would maybe pick up someone if a couple of starters went down. But the club might still turn to the minor league guys instead - Jungmann, Lopez - or shift Hader back to the rotation.

 

Relievers are the biggest area would could probably make a deal for. We have lots of young options - Suter, Lopez, Hader, Wang, etc. - but the club might want a couple of more proven guys. Drake, Peralta, Torres, Hughes, Barnes - none of these guys is doing great. If someone tanks, I could see some depth added (especially if the team tries some of the minor league guys and finds them lacking).

 

 

Great posy Reilly, offensively we can plug and play at EVERY position except catcher. Pina is playing well while Bandy has slumped.

[JosephC]

It will be interesting to see how the situation in the American League impacts buyers in this year's market. Basically the entire American League is in the playoff race. Second wild card position belongs to Tampa Bay with a 37-35 record. Worst winning percentage belongs to the A's, their record stands at 31-38. So the worst team in the American League is only 4.5 games back. A's and White Sox have had the look of sellers all along and probably will stay in that mode. But a team like the Tigers...not so sure if they start dumping players if they hang within 3 games of a playoff spot. About two weeks ago the Rangers were playing some pretty terrible baseball and looked like they were going nowhere, and a pretty modest 7-3 run has put them 1 game behind the Rays.

 

If the AL stays like that through the next few weeks, it will probably be a real strong sellers market this year.

[adambr2]

This just in, the Cubs lost AGAIN

 

Please stop posting about last year. The Cubs in 2017 are not the 2016 Cubs. Stearns has an opportunity to go for this. we are going to see if he can pull it off. HE will win EOY and Counsell will win MOY if they make the playoffs, don't mortgage the future but use prospects to fill in our holes. All these minor leaguers cannot make the bigs with us.

 

The 2016 Cubs are still relevant to 2017 in the sense that they are returning a ton of talent this year from a championship team.

 

100% this is still the Cubs' division to lose. Even Rock and BA who are company men through and through admitted this much on the air yesterday. While Arrieta's struggles may be for real and their rotation appears to have taken a step back, it's really unrealistic to think they are going to be floundering around .500 all season.

 

Since the Wild Card doesn't appear to be in play I wouldn't advocate doing any major buying unless we are comfortably in 1st near the deadline, which I don't think is likely.

[RobDeer 45]

Let's say we continue to lead the division and Garza continues to pitch well and has trade value...what do we do? Trade him or keep him for the stretch run?

 

I'd still be of the opinion we have to continue to do what's best for this team long term. Do teams that are winning divisions ever trade a starting pitcher near the deadline?

[JosephC]

Garza seems like a solid hold candidate. I don't think the return would be good enough to motivate me to move him off of a first place team. The Brewers have enough starting pitching but I still question their depth. I'm very high on Woodruff's future but assuming he can step in and pitch at a high level down the stretch is questionable. Brinson and Phillips didn't exactly tear it up when they got their chance, how can we assume rookie pitchers could successfully fill any voids that might occur? Can't trade a guy like Garza now as one more bad injury to a starter could have a pretty dramatic impact on the team. I would have to get a staggering, unbelievable offer to trade him now.

[MrTPlush]

People keep saying the wild card doesn't seem in play, but do you guys even look at the standings? The Rockies hold the second spot and are trending down pretty fast right now. Their rotation isn't good and at Coors that is going to bring them down. They are good, but I expect them to have a record that sports <90 wins. They only hold a 3 game lead over us right now....we have a bigger divisional lead than that.

 

If and when the Rockies continue trending down look at the Wild Card contenders not including the Cubs. It is the 40-42 Braves and the 40-44 Cardinals right now. We hold a 5 game lead over the Braves right now(who are directly behind the Cubs in the Wild Card race. There is not a single winning record in the NL that isn't currently holding a playoff spot.

 

STOP WRITING OFF THE WILDCARD

[RobDeer 45]

I'm not writing anything off at this point. I still think we will come back down to earth.... but who knows. I just want to make sure we continue down the path that is best for the future. I guess I was just curious about Garza's value because I don't know how much you can trust him. If he had value is it best to get rid of him or keep him and hope he doesn't explode this year.

[MrTPlush]

I'm not sure how much value he would really hold. I mean enough to trade him in a postseason spot race? Believe it or not he has been easily our third best starter this year. I feel he keeps it up all year he could be an interesting offseason trade candidate. He will have the very attractive option. We have a lot of young rotational depth we could turn to and trade Garza for some prospects(or bullpen help) etc.

[pacopete4]

I still think we will come back down to earth....

 

Maybe this is the Brewers earth? Maybe. Just maybe, these stat gurus that tell us how great or bad these guys will be were wrong? Because baseball isn't played on a computer.

[Greenleaf1]

I think at this point unless you're getting a really solid prospect back, hold onto Garza for the rest of the year and then possibly look to flip him during the offseason.

 

If he finishes 2017 with an ERA around 4, his $5M option for next year would look pretty solid to a lot of teams looking for back end rotation help (including us, honestly).

 

I think my days of frustration with Garza are pretty much over, he has been pretty solid and dependable this year and at the end of last year, and now that he has learned to pitch instead of just trying to overpower guys with stuff that just isn't there anymore, he seems to be having a nice little late career renaissance. I'm not sure I'd want to give him up this year or next year without getting something really enticing in return (definitely better than the return we got for, say, Aaron Hill. More along the lines of what we got for Gerardo Parra).

[RobDeer 45]

Good points everyone. I think that's a good way of looking at it. Wait out the year and if he has value, they can always trade him after the season. I think my initial thought was worrying about him having a bad second half and then not having value. But like said, I don't think he'd fetch that much anyway so he's more valuable on the team.

[mrn1ceguy]

I think the only real way we trade Garza during the season if everything goes perfect for us. Nelson continues to be great, Garza keeps pitching well, Davies takes the next step, Guerra starts to right the ship and Woodruff gets a handful of fantastic starts under his belt. At that time, I could see trading Garza (for a 7th/8th inning reliever?) to get Anderson his spot back without having to demote woodruff. If we don't look like we have 5 strong (or at least good enough) starters without Garza, we probably won't trade him mid-season.

[BeerFan]

Its gonna be tough to find a good fit for Garza. No non contending team is going to want him. He basically only has value for a contender who wants a little more stability at the back of their rotation. And a contender wont want to trade us anything that helps us right now.

 

 

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[MrTPlush]

I still think we will come back down to earth....

 

Maybe this is the Brewers earth? Maybe. Just maybe, these stat gurus that tell us how great or bad these guys will be were wrong? Because baseball isn't played on a computer.

 

Haha right. I remember two weeks ago hearing the same thing and now we have rattled of wins in 7/8 of our last 8. I guess they don't specify when...maybe 5 years or so?

 

Seriously though the team is playing well and keeps doing better when everyone expects gravity to bring us down. This team has legit players doing legit things. They haven't had a bad losing streak all year. This team can keep it up.