Hypothetical: What do we do if we have too many good outfielders?

[MrTPlush]

It is no mystery we have a lot of promising outfielders currently roaming the MLB level and the AAA level. It is incredibly likely between Broxton, Santana, Cordell, Phillips, and Brinson we have more starting caliber guys than we have spots for them(2). One can comfortably assume Brinson is going to fill one of those spots for the next few years eventually. So with that you have four guys vying for one spot. To add onto to all that Broxton/Santana both are hitting well on the season so the OF logjam that a lot have figured would happen is seeming to shape up. Now I understand this is not a for sure thing, but for this we are going to assume it does indeed happen:

 

What do you do if there are more starters than spots?

 

Now the immediate response you typically get is that you trade one(likely the worst of the bunch). However David Stearns was on the broadcast the other day talking about offensive depth and made a direct comparison to the Cubs. The Cubs last year(and to an extent this year) have starting caliber guys or legitimate prospects being bench players. The gain here is having great replacements when injuries occur and having great pinch hitters at the end of games. So it really comes down to if you think that is more valuable than the trade haul you might be able to get.

 

I find it to be an interesting scenario and for me I might keep the player over trading them especially if it is an OFer as they will get a lot of ABs anyway. My other requirement(for an OFer) would be their ability to play all three positions. So if it came down to Broxton winning the battle over Santana I would probably trade Santana over keeping him on the bench as he can't play CF. Another value in this I see is the fact you would have someone experienced that could take over for Braun when he is done in 2021 filling that void quite seamlessly.

 

Additional Assumptions:

1)The extra guy isn't all star or anything of that nature as you wouldn't put that on the bench. He is pretty average.

2)He can't be moved out of the OF.

[JimH5]

The Brewers will always need pitching. They are unable to develop their own draft picks into top tier starters, so flipping a position player should always be an option.

[Lathund]

First of all we'll have to see how many of these guys manage to make the step up, or in the case of Broxton/Santana, keep producing. I have pretty high hopes for all the AAA guys, but not all prospects make it, so there's a chance that the logjam won't be quite as bad as it looks right now.

 

I agree with you on the versatility part, and that we should value having a lot (potential) CF types on the roster. The fact that Brinson, Phillips, Cordell (And Wren for that matter) are good defensively, can play multiple positions, as well as be a threat to steal is something I really like. I find that a lot more valuable than a pure slugger with poor defense. That's also why I think Santana is the one most likely to be traded when the outfield gets crowded. If he keeps hitting well, he'd be a valuable trade piece to teams who don't particularly have a need for defense or versatility (AL teams in particular), while not being a big loss to us.

 

I also agree with the notion of keeping depth. As long as we have outfielders with options remaining, we should keep as many as we can around both in the majors and at AAA. Should be in no hurry to trade any of them away, and only do so if we get offers that well exceed our valuations. Best case scenario, we have a surplus of MLB-level talent and can use 1-2 of them to improve our pitching. Worse case scenario, several of these guys don't make it, but in keeping many of them around we don't need a high success rate to at least get 1 MLB-level starter. To make room for them we should utilize any positional flexibility we have. Cordell has played some at 3B/1B IIRC. Maybe attempt to try out our poorer defenders (Santana/Braun) at 1B? If we have a versatile infield backup like Perez on the roster, we can afford to carry 5 outfielders, with regular rotations.

[brewmann04]

DS has gotten a ton of Outfielders and middle Infielders which he will use down the road to get some quality pitching.

[Outlander]

I think if you are considered cream of the crop like Brinson is then he will get a spot. Holdovers like Santana and Broxton will need to continue to produce to keep a job or build enough trade value to bring something back in return that the Brewers need. Guys like Phillips and Cordell will have to fight for playing time and with all their options remaining may be stuck in AAA longer than they want. A player like Wren that can play all outfield positions may be brought up just to be a backup because I doubt he is considered starter material by the Brewers.

 

Clark, Ray, Clark are at least a couple of years away and by the time they have to make a decision on them some will bust and some of the current crop will either be traded or move on because they are not producing.

 

To me it is a good thing and gives the Brewers a better chance of sustaining success.

[And That]

It's an old adage, but it is true: the players will decide. Not everyone will work out.

[pacopete4]

It's an old adage, but it is true: the players will decide. Not everyone will work out.

 

Yeah, this is my train of thought with it as well. The best will play and the rest will either not produce or will be moved to other teams for pieces for the future or to build even more depth at the MLB level.

 

I think we worry more about this stuff than Stearns does.

[paul253]

I think we also have to consider the possibility that quality players don't get the chance they deserve there's nowhere to put them.

 

And I don't think it's as easy to flip these guys for quality pitching as it may seem. While many of these guys could be quality every day players most aren't the top notch prospects you need to acquire a top of the rotation pitcher, especially the ones we'd be willing to trade. I doubt, they'd trade Brinson or Ray for instance. Plus you'll likely need to part with multiple prospects, including pitchers, to get a quality starter back. I think you'd need more than, say, Phillips and Doubon to get a quality starter back.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think we also have to consider the possibility that quality players don't get the chance they deserve there's nowhere to put them.

 

And I don't think it's as easy to flip these guys for quality pitching as it may seem. While many of these guys could be quality every day players most aren't the top notch prospects you need to acquire a top of the rotation pitcher, especially the ones we'd be willing to trade.

 

Agree with all this. It's not as simple as "the best 3 OF will emerge." Take Cordell for example. He is probably seen as the 6th best of this group of 6. But it's entirely possible he could be the 3rd or 4th best, yet never get a chance to prove that until after he's traded away.

 

I also think it will be difficult to get back what they're "worth" in a trade. Santana, for example, could be sitting at .800+ at the trade deadline, but contenders are usually looking for a more "proven" bat. If a controllable TOR pitcher is the goal in a trade, will probably need to package together say Broxton and Ortiz or something like that.

 

Funny, because I was saying all the time, it's not a problem too have too much OF talent, it will work itself out, etc. But two things happened. 1) Braun is still here, and probably will be. 2) Thames emerged, so can't move Santana or anyone else to 1B.

 

So here we are. 3 OFs producing at a high level, and 3 more that look like they're ready, or ready very soon. Phillips as the lone LH will definitely get a shot. Brinson, with his very high ceiling will as well. And Braun would be the 3rd. That leaves Broxton as the 4th OF, and he'll still get a ton of ABs, especially with all of Braun's nagging injuries. You could almost call Braun the 4th OF. That leaves Santana and Cordell on the outside looking in. So you trade Santana and get what you can, maybe package him with others to get a better return. Cordell you keep in AAA again next year.

 

That's the most likely scenario I see for the 2018 OF. To summarize:

 

LF: Broxton

CF: Brinson

RF: Phillips

4th:Braun

 

Santana-Traded

Cordell- AAA

Ray, Clark: Too soon to know if they are MLB players, no reason to plan for them yet

[MrTPlush]

So here we are. 3 OFs producing at a high level, and 3 more that look like they're ready, or ready very soon. Phillips as the lone LH will definitely get a shot. Brinson, with his very high ceiling will as well. And Braun would be the 3rd. That leaves Broxton as the 4th OF, and he'll still get a ton of ABs, especially with all of Braun's nagging injuries. You could almost call Braun the 4th OF. That leaves Santana and Cordell on the outside looking in. So you trade Santana and get what you can, maybe package him with others to get a better return. Cordell you keep in AAA again next year.

 

That's the most likely scenario I see for the 2018 OF.

 

That was what I was thinking. Keeping Broxton as a 4th OFer who gets a ton of ABs anyway if he can produce in that role. Phillips/Cordell probably only get a shot if someone has a major injury and Santana seems like a prime trade candidate just because his defense is meh and can't play CF. Only risk is if Broxton doesn't do well with all the off days and you effectively kill some of the trade value if you then want to trade him.

[rickh150]

Trade some "extra" OF prospects for pitching/catching help. I don't see how we get around this issue without doing this. We can't keep umpteen OF on the 40 man in the near future.

[And That]

The attrition rate for prospects, even good ones, is pretty high.

 

For instance, I love Brett Phillips and desperately want him to succeed, but realistically he won't have a shot in the big leagues until he gets his swing re-figured out. A player in AAA with a 32% K rate is extremely likely to get exposed in the big leagues. His OPS away from Colorado Springs is 739.

 

Ryan Cordell has a 773 OPS on the road this year. Both he and Phillips could be AAA->MLB->AAA->MLB->AAA guys over the next few years. Both have all of their options left. Neither is a top 100 prospect, or close to it at this point.

 

Lewis Brinson has a 776 OPS on the road this year. He has more raw talent than Phillips or Cordell, but it's not like he is busting down the door right now, either.

 

I'm not trying to pour cold water on these guys - I think they all could have extended success in MLB if things break right, but it is important to realize they may not. All three, Phillips especially, still have plenty to work on in the minor leagues.

 

If the Brewers have three outfielders succeeding in Milwaukee, it's kind of a bird in the hand situation. No one should be traded unless at least commensurate value can be returned. Prospects fail. These things tend to work themselves out.

[jerichoholicninja]

Unfortunately I think it all hinges on Braun. If he's traded that opens up a spot and dominoes will fall into place. However, I think he's stuck here the rest of his career and his fragile body and above average bat will push one of those guys into a part time shared role and leave the rest in limbo.

[monty57]

I know Braun could be traded, but I won't believe it until I see it. Now that he's got a full no trade protection, I will just assume he's going to remain a Brewer.

 

I believe that Brinson will be a good player, so I will assume that he will have a starting role before too long. That means that either Broxton or Santana will be traded or relegated to bench duty. Both have shown that they can be quality starters, so I'd prefer a trade and if one of them is going to be traded, I'd prefer to hold onto Broxton (good all around player) over Santana (good player but poor defense).

 

I would think that some playoff-hopeful team would see value in an .800 OPS OF who is still in his pre-arby years, so I would like to think that Stearns would be able to pull off a trade. I think Santana is coming into his own, and will have a lot of good years, so it's tough to trade him, but that's why I wanted to see Braun traded this past offseason. Hopefully, we will be able to get talent back at a position of greater need, and that will help us going forward.

 

I'm not as concerned about holding Phillips, Cordell, etc back a while to see how things shake out.

[paul253]

Ryan Cordell has a 773 OPS on the road this year. Both he and Phillips could be AAA->MLB->AAA->MLB->AAA guys over the next few years. Both have all of their options left. Neither is a top 100 prospect, or close to it at this point.

 

That's true, but how are we going to know unless they get a shot? And how are they going to get a shot when there are so many others who need to get a shot?

 

On a side note, I know I'm a broken record right now but this would be less of a problem if we were in the AL and Braun could be our full time DH. AL teams have such an advantage in this area and given there are interleague games every day it's time they standardize the rule. Why should NL teams have to make personnel decisions AL teams don't have to make?

[And That]

Phillips and Cordell will get shots, if they earn them. Injuries happen. But neither are good enough to where Broxton and/or Santana and/or Braun should be dumped for less than they're worth just to get them on the field.

[FVBrewerFan]

Phillips and Cordell will get shots, if they earn them. Injuries happen. But neither are good enough to where Broxton and/or Santana and/or Braun should be dumped for less than they're worth just to get them on the field.

 

How will they get their shots? You have 6 OFs, so it would take 3 injuries for all of them to get a shot. Cordell, for example, has done plenty to earn a shot. Phillips, again, is the only LH of the group so you know they'll want to give him a shot.

 

Not saying they need a shot NOW, I'm talking about the 2018 season. And now that Braun is likely to be here, and Thames, that takes away two potential spots that would have avoided the backlog.

 

I get it's not a problem until it's a problem, but we're getting closer to that.

[tmwiese55]

I'd like to see Broxton and Santana play well the whole rest of the year without getting hurt before worrying about it. I mean, 2-3 weeks ago the topic here was how long until we pull the plug on them because they were so bad. Now they do well for a bit and they're for sure good. Both guys got hurt last year too. Relax, it'll play itself out.

[MrTPlush]

I will stress again I made the thread as a conversation assuming we had the problem of an extra legit prospect OFer(like Phillips/Cordell) or an extra MLB OFer. Not a well this, this, this, and that happens, but I don't want to talk about that as it is early. Just pretend it happens down the road what do you do. It is is more of a philosophy question and not directly tied to specific players on the team and what they are doing now.

 

Do you trade the prospect/MLB player away and stick to 3 starters with below average bench bats or do you keep the guy to have a solid 4th OFer PHer? Assuming that you are a competing team.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, at that high level view I would want 4 starting OF. If one of them can play some 1B, PH chances, then there's the games with DH. Add it all up and plenty of ABs for 4 really good OFs,

 

This also allows for them to step in for each other when short DL stints happen, slumps, etc. Not to mention 4 really good OFs makes it much easier to trade one.

[istanbultaye]

I know the Brewers in the past have preferred to fill the bench with veterans, but I think it makes a lot of sense to have a prospect take on the 4th outfielder role. Having a cheap bench let's you spend money elsewhere. I don't think you want to have your top prospect take that role necessarily, but if you commit to getting them at least 250-300 ABs in a rotation in all the spots (assuming they are an above average defender even in CF) then I don't think it's a waste to have them up in that role. Considering the flexibility they are going for on the bench, I don't think they even need a 5th OF on the 25 man, if they continue having someone like Perez as a backup IF/OF going forward.

[monty57]

I will stress again I made the thread as a conversation assuming we had the problem of an extra legit prospect OFer(like Phillips/Cordell) or an extra MLB OFer. Not a well this, this, this, and that happens, but I don't want to talk about that as it is early. Just pretend it happens down the road what do you do. It is is more of a philosophy question and not directly tied to specific players on the team and what they are doing now.

 

Do you trade the prospect/MLB player away and stick to 3 starters with below average bench bats or do you keep the guy to have a solid 4th OFer PHer? Assuming that you are a competing team.

 

As a general philosophy, I hope the Brewers can keep prospects coming up through the system, trading away the veteran with shorter team control and replacing him with a MLB-ready prospect. Therefore, I would prefer to trade away the "proven" veteran and replace him with the talented prospect.

 

Theoretically, you hope the prospect can provide you as much value as the veteran you traded away, and the prospects you trade for will allow you to retain a stocked farm so you can continue this process in the future.

 

To the real world example, I like Santana, but I think Brinson will be better than him so we shouldn't take a step back at the MLB level if we insert Brinson for Santana. If we can get back several talented prospects for Santana, our farm will remain stocked, even though Brinson has graduated to the MLB level.

 

I'd be fine if a talented OF gets brought up as the 4th OF, but not a potential star talent. Good-but-not-great prospects could be used for that role. I would not want a guy who is proven to be an above average starting OF or someone who is a top prospect in all of baseball sitting the bench as 4th OF.

[3and2Fastball]

I realize the title includes "Hypothetical" but in short: we don't

 

Braun is good but injuries are adding up

Broxton might be good. Time will tell

Brinson might be good. Time will tell

 

The rest? Mega-huge question marks.

[FVBrewerFan]

Every minor league player has question marks. Every major league player with limited experience has questions marks. So that's basically avoiding the question. Of course they have question marks, but that would mean no minor league player is ever promoted.

 

You say Brinson might be good. How will you ever know? He has Braun, Broxton, Santana blocking him. Does Phillips have some things to work on too? Sure. But if he continues the path he's on, he will be ready for the 2018 season. Cordell is already ready.

 

We all understand "it will work itself out." I think the question is HOW will it work itself out. We're not talking about 2-3 years down the road anymore, this will need to be decided in the near future. That's why I think it's interesting to discuss.

[MoreTrife]

I know it's way too early in the rebuild for this but do we trade for an elite reliever with one of them? Otherwise I don't know what they're going to do aside from trade Braun, which I'm not sure is going to happen. I think broxton and Santana are going to continue to be pretty good. What to do!?!?