What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[adambr2]

Yeah, Braun's legacy means very little to me. His contract isn't awful as long as he can be reasonably productive the next few years, but the logjam in the OF has the potential to be a bit of a pain with Braun being literally the only one we can't trade.

 

It would be a really good next 4 years to be in the AL. Braun would be the regular DH and he would probably hold up better health wise not playing in the field every day.

[tmwiese55]

We've veered off topic but I think people just look for reasons to hate baseball too. It's boring, nothing happens, games are too long, players are paid too much, steroids are ruining it, etc.

 

Good point. Along with that, the current state of the media is what can be called "gotcha media". Where their biggest goal/story is to try and nail someone on something and then bash them. Leads into them beating stories like this to death.

 

As long as Braun continues to hit at a reasonable clip his contract isn't brutal. And maybe it'll actually be better/easier to trade him at the deadline. In the offseason teams have so many more options where they can pay similar money but not give up prospects. in season, their options are limited so if the right situation comes up maybe a deal happens. But I still have the opinion that if teams just expect us to give him away for nothing then I'd rather just keep him. Logjam issues hopefully can be resolved with either him or Santana moving to 1B. Also, keep in mind at this point we have no idea is Santana and Broxton will be legit, if they flop we have two open spots again.

[MrTPlush]

My biggest worry: Paying Braun $20mil to be a 3.5 WAR OFer(or lower) when someone in the wings could play for league minimum and still put up close to the same output. That's a huge waste of a lot of money.

 

All is fine if he is producing >4WAR because that is a special player and not something easily matched. I doubt we have three 4+ WAR OFers coming in the next 4 years. However if he dips closer to 3 that's not really anything super special and easily replaced internally and then that money can be spent on a real need. He may not be quite as good as Braun, but said player would likely be more reliable on defense and replacement+$20mil spent elsewhere>Braun at that point.

[Greenleaf1]

I'll only be concerned about Braun's salary when it affects our other moves, which it won't for a few years yet because we aren't spending money on anybody else. We also stand to gain even more flexibility than we already have when Garza's contract comes off the books, but honestly we have so much flexibility right now anyways that this isn't really worth worrying about yet.

 

I'm concerned about the logjam in the outfield too, especially since it could start as soon as this year (I think Santana's a stud, and Broxton looked pretty studly at the end of last year too, that leaves nowhere for Brinson to play regularly), and I would love to have a raking outfield of Broxton/Santana/Brinson for $1.5M/year, trade Braun for a few more great prospects plus save $20M/year, but right now none of what I just said is a given and that money savings doesn't matter that much in 2017 so until we have 3 young controllable outfielders who can start every day, I wouldn't worry about not trading Braun.

 

Every year that Braun continues to perform and his contract gets smaller, he will become more valuable. Just because he has full no trade rights doesn't mean that he won't be traded. I think he likes Milwaukee and would love to stay here, but I also think there are plenty of teams he would waive his no trade clause for given the right incentive. It would've been nice to open up our crowded outfield a little bit, but for now we have a great outfielder making market price on a team that doesn't need to save money and could use a veteran presence around all the youngsters. Keeping Braun or trading Braun this offseason was a win/win I think.

[3and2Fastball]

Braun was under paid when he was an MVP and in the years preceeding that season. We knew his contract was balanced to get paid more in his mid 30's. It evens out.

[adambr2]

Braun was under paid when he was an MVP and in the years preceeding that season. We knew his contract was balanced to get paid more in his mid 30's. It evens out.

 

 

But other teams don't care about that. They'll need very good production still to want to make that investment.

[pacopete4]

Braun was under paid when he was an MVP and in the years preceeding that season. We knew his contract was balanced to get paid more in his mid 30's. It evens out.

 

 

But other teams don't care about that. They'll need very good production still to want to make that investment.

 

 

Where did he mention any other team? I believe he is speaking in terms of the Brewers paying him.

[adambr2]

Braun was under paid when he was an MVP and in the years preceeding that season. We knew his contract was balanced to get paid more in his mid 30's. It evens out.

 

 

But other teams don't care about that. They'll need very good production still to want to make that investment.

 

 

Where did he mention any other team? I believe he is speaking in terms of the Brewers paying him.

 

I have no complaints about Braun's salary on the surface, at the time it appeared to be a good extension for both sides, if still unusual that early out. But since this is a thread about his trade value to the Dodgers, I certainly think mentioning that another team doesn't care about his value to the Brewers earlier in his career.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

But other teams don't care about that. They'll need very good production still to want to make that investment.

 

 

Where did he mention any other team? I believe he is speaking in terms of the Brewers paying him.

 

I have no complaints about Braun's salary on the surface, at the time it appeared to be a good extension for both sides, if still unusual that early out. But since this is a thread about his trade value to the Dodgers, I certainly think mentioning that another team doesn't care about his value to the Brewers earlier in his career.

 

For perspective, the Tampa Bay Rays did give Evan Longoria a 15year contract in under 1 season's worth of games. The Pirates have been doing this. It's the small market strategy to lock up some FA years for most likely money less than they'd be offered in the FA market. You are also taking in charge team control without having to play the game of gain an extra year service time in some instances. Polanco, Marte, Harrison, that one who didn't turn out...Jose Tabata. The Mets did David Wright. The Rockies did Carlos Gonzalez along with Troy Tulowitzki. Guys with 20mil in a year at some point. And Braun was arguably if not definitely more valuable that those last 3. Players are getting paid 24million to 34million to be the star that Braun was.

We can go back revisionist post PEDs and say his contract is expensive, but if the PEDs didn't come about, Braun would have been a FA after 2015 and we'd be harping how he's going to get paid 24-28mil a year or more removing the bad history. And all we had to do was try locking him up like the Rockies/Mets/Rays did with their Franchise type players. Willingness to offer 5/100 for Fielder/Grienke who left more, but Braun? at his early stage to pass that up?

[MrTPlush]

Braun was under paid when he was an MVP and in the years preceeding that season. We knew his contract was balanced to get paid more in his mid 30's. It evens out.

 

I hope you are just referring to paying him more. Not that he was underpaid back in the day so we knew we would overpay him in the later years. Because that would explain why this franchise can't win a World Series. What you are saying is something you think of when signing someone to a big FA contract and understand you have to pay for the down years to get those good years. Not when you sign someone half a decade early and already have the prime years bought out.

 

That being said I don't think his contract will be so crippling financially like that. I'm sure he will be worth close to what he is getting paid at least 3/4 of the years remaining. It would probably be better not paying him, but it's not like we are losing anything by having him here...for now.

[adambr2]

Obviously still way too early to make any definitive judgments for the season, but Puig has started out 2017 on a tear OPSing near 1.500 with 3 HR already so far.

 

I think this has the potential to be a deal we seriously regret not getting done in August. With Braun essentially a part-time player at this point in his career, there's a good chance he can still play even at 33, but Puig has immensely more upside at a much lower price tag, and if he rebounds to his early career form he is going to become one of the more valuable commodities in the league again. I think the Dodgers were probably getting cold feet on this over the winter which is most likely why we didn't hear much discussion on it.

 

I don't know what the value was of the two prospects included in the deal, but I think the chances are pretty good that Puig alone outperforms Braun over the next 4 years. I do appreciate that Stearns at least recognized that Puig was an undervalued talent and tried to acquire him, but this is something I wish we had been able to pull the trigger on.

[SandyTolan]

Obviously still way too early to make any definitive judgments for the season, but Puig has started out 2017 on a tear OPSing near 1.500 with 3 HR already so far.

 

I think this has the potential to be a deal we seriously regret not getting done in August. With Braun essentially a part-time player at this point in his career, there's a good chance he can still play even at 33, but Puig has immensely more upside at a much lower price tag, and if he rebounds to his early career form he is going to become one of the more valuable commodities in the league again. I think the Dodgers were probably getting cold feet on this over the winter which is most likely why we didn't hear much discussion on it.

 

I don't know what the value was of the two prospects included in the deal, but I think the chances are pretty good that Puig alone outperforms Braun over the next 4 years. I do appreciate that Stearns at least recognized that Puig was an undervalued talent and tried to acquire him, but this is something I wish we had been able to pull the trigger on.

 

 

Gotta agree with that. Plus, Puig could have been flipped for significantly more than what we'd get back for Braun now, once the prospects are ready. Too bad they didn't just do the deal. I appreciate Stearns's patience but here he missed an opportunity.

[pacopete4]

We don't even know what the deal was so how can we make this assessment? Also, part time players don't play 140 games, bat third in your lineup and put up the numbers Braun does.

[adambr2]

We don't even know what the deal was so how can we make this assessment? Also, part time players don't play 140 games, bat third in your lineup and put up the numbers Braun does.

 

We know that Puig and Braun were both in the deal, which is probably good enough regardless of the two prospects, that was the point.

 

As far as Braun he has only hit 140 games once in his last 4 seasons after finishing well above that every full year in his first 5. I think it's clear looking at his games played over the years that he's starting to break down quite a bit more where I see him as more of a 125-135 game player. It's possible he hits 140 but him feeling back tightness on the 3rd game of the season and being sidelined for it by the 6th is definitely not a good sign .

 

I certainly hope I am wrong about this, I just see arrows going in 2 different directions and think we probably really missed out on a big opportunity.

[Boomer5]

I still am not a fan of Puig for our needs but that said we will regret not trading Braun. He doesn't look like a guy who will ever be a 140 game guy again.

[pacopete4]

So Braun has played 135, 140, 135 games the past three years and his stats have only improved in just about every category since 2014 but you see arrows going in two different directions because Puig has started off the season on a good note?

 

Not saying that Puig might not be the better player in four years but it feels more like a guess on your part rather than any statistical reasoning.

[adambr2]

So Braun has played 135, 140, 135 games the past three years and his stats have only improved in just about every category since 2014 but you see arrows going in two different directions because Puig has started off the season on a good note?

 

Not saying that Puig might not be the better player in four years but it feels more like a guess on your part rather than any statistical reasoning.

 

Well age has a lot to do with that guess. When I see a guy who played at a near MVP caliber level at age 23, who suddenly regresses at 25, it's hard for me to believe that a 25 year old suddenly hit a wall. Always seemed a lot more likely to me that his regression was flukey and that he still had the ability to do what he's doing now .

 

Braun is 33 and has continued to deal with more and more nagging injuries over the years as he has aged that have eaten into his playing time.

 

Projections are not a perfect science but looking at both Steamer and Zips they both have Braun as slightly under a 2 fWAR player so it seems to me they are also buying into the age regression. That's very concerning to me since if they're accurate that he declines to that degree, the next 3 following years aren't likely to be better.

 

I certainly hope Braun can defy them. We need him to. But already being sidelined with back pain this early into the season doesn't have a very promising feel to it.

[pacopete4]

Well I'm glad Counsell, Steams and MA doesn't overreact the way that some fans do.

[JohnBriggs12]

Braun had back tightness not pain. No need to push him the first week of the season. If they were contenders I would bet he'd be out there almost every day. Preserving his body now so he's productive in 2 years makes sense.

[adambr2]

Well I'm glad Counsell, Steams and MA doesn't overreact the way that some fans do.

 

Saying, 'I think we are going to regret that we didn't get a deal done for Braun last year and lost out on Puig' is an opinion, not an overreaction. An opinion that I expressed originally prior to Puig's hot start this year. And an opinion that most projection models would agree with.

[crickets]

We will have the best idea if we regret not moving Braun at last years deadline by the end of the year. Still too early to tell as he could still be moved and could possibly bring back a nice return at the deadline or before his 10/5 rights come up if one of the 6 teams bites off his no trade list. SF left fielders started the season 0-21 for what it's worth.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let's put a whoa on the Puig Start as the Dodgers got off vs the Padres. Puig's HRs 1 vs Trevor Cahill and 2 on the gas can now that is Jered Weaver who I believe is around 85MPH on a FB these days. 37HRs given up last year less than 180 IP.

 

Braun has 2 now one vs Tyler Anderson arguably better than Cahill, and now Arrieta.

 

The Padres are basically starting Tommy Milone every game this season, with Jhoulys Chacin as their Ace, Clayton Richard 2, Cahill their 3, and Weaver their 4 mind you.

[trwi7]

It's not about Braun this year. It's about Braun in a few years when he's 36 or 37, making $15-20 million and likely playing less with more injuries than he has now.

 

It was stupid not to trade him.

[brewmann04]

We are not sure if anything was offered in the offseason

[pacopete4]

It's not about Braun this year. It's about Braun in a few years when he's 36 or 37, making $15-20 million and likely playing less with more injuries than he has now.

 

It was stupid not to trade him.

 

 

All of what you said COULD come true. All of what you said also might not. Just too easy to throw around predictions and call it fact.