What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[monty57]

One general manager says why would anyone give up a couple of prospects and take on some of the money when there are bats like Mark Trumbo and Jose Bautista on the market who require only cash, no talent in return?

 

MLB Network guys were saying that it looks like Bautista could head back to Toronto on a one-year deal because of the weak market. That would take one option off the table, but also shows that teams aren't willing to give up much for OF bats.

 

A trade could still happen, but I've pretty much settled into the belief that Braun will be a Brewer for the rest of his contract, which isn't the worst thing that could happen. They will just have to sort out the OF logjam as the players become MLB ready.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

The horse has been beaten long enough. Braun is not going anywhere. I am glad, too. I hope he retires a Brewer.

[pete]

I don't give Braun a free pass. All I need to do is see the video of his press conference and I end up talking to the TV again. So foolish. And of course he took a cocktail that included testosterone as a stimulant.

 

Part of the problem is he incredibly foolishly took on the head of a legal monopoly of billionaires. If he won his hearing and ducked his head and said nothing, they might not have gone after him with the political destruction machine. Instead he poked them in the eye.

 

Nobody cares that MLB almost certainly engaged in illegal behavior to do it. Nobody cares that they unleashed the dirty tricks machine with anonymous leaks through management sources, many which have never been supported by later reporting. Nobody cares that guys like Buster Olney couldn't care less whether what they did is good journalism much less ethical. He actually giggled during some of his "reporting." Nobody cares that the Olympic testing labs are loaded with controversy for decades. Nobody cares that there are almost certainly healthy MLB players using prescriptions for ADHD drugs so they can use amphetamines as stimulants.

 

What they care about is what they heard on talk radio. Yeah maybe Braun is iffy to some teams at this time. If the Giants, Dodgers, Nats, Red Sox and who knows who else are struggling offensively at the deadline, maybe they'll fall off their high horses.

[JohnBriggs12]

The horse has been beaten long enough. Braun is not going anywhere. I am glad, too. I hope he retires a Brewer.

 

Amen. Brewers have cashed in a lot of their veterans and the system is pretty flush now. They'll have more opportunities with other pieces too. Once Braun becomes a 5 and 10 guy in a few months, it will all be moot. Brewer fans had a history with him so that made it easier to move on from his PED episode. He's still poison elsewhere. It's the best for all parties that he's a Brewer for life. I still think there's a good chance Braun hasn't played his last postseason game as a Brewer either.

[yoshii8]

I don't think it's over yet. I'm willing to bet he is still being shopped. The Dodgers are still looking for RH power, right?

[billymac]

Probably not going to see too many moves the rest of the month. Stearns gets married on Saturday. Gotta wonder if he's like in one of those commercials where the guy is with his girl on a date and he's secretly/constantly checking his phone. Or if his fiancee took his phone away for the next 10 days.

[adambr2]

 

Regarding WAR: the above conclusion that it certainly played a part in the Eaton trade is not supported by the premises. He had a high WAR and the price was high do not mean that they are joined. I'd say the chance that the Nationals use UZR or DRS as significant factors is pretty small. And I'd be shocked if they used a single number that baked in everything at all.

 

Think of outside of baseball. Life is filled with issues and decisions that have massive amounts of data, are evaluated by experts - people with PHDs in statistics - and the debate is over sets of data and their interpretation. Over time the conclusions often change.

 

What? The conclusion that WAR played a part in the valuation of Eaton is most certainly supported by the premises. The National aren't giving up the #3 prospect in baseball for a .284/.362/.428 slash line.

 

I can't speak for how the Nationals weigh the data they have, but I'd be willing to bet they use all information available to them. You don't think that Eaton's WAR value came up at any point during the trade conversations, that Rick Hahn used that piece of data to his advantage to leverage his asking price?

 

It's true that the way data is interpreted changes over time but at this point in time these are the best methods they have to evaluate the data.

[A Swing and A Drive]

WAR What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again ya'll!

 

 

What's wrong with the good old-fashioned eye test?

[MrTPlush]

WAR What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again ya'll!

 

 

What's wrong with the good old-fashioned eye test?

 

Nothing that is why all teams still heavily do it. However if you think that's all you need you are going to fail. The eye test also doesn't work on this forum because none of us are professional scouts and when comparing players unless both play for the Brewers we don't watch them enough to make a accurate conclusion.

 

Statistics are better to accurately decide the value a player has or will provide in the future.

[adambr2]

Most teams agree that using all available information -- sabermetrics, traditional stats, and the eye test to get the best results.

 

Think of 162 games though, per team, how many ABs and innings that is, for 30 teams. And that's just at the MLB level. Far too much data to rely solely on the eye test -- statistics are in place for a reason.

 

Not to mention emotions often come into play when evaluating a player solely on the eye test.

[MKE81]

WAR What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again ya'll!

 

 

What's wrong with the good old-fashioned eye test?

 

Nothing that is why all teams still heavily do it. However if you think that's all you need you are going to fail. The eye test also doesn't work on this forum because none of us are professional scouts and when comparing players unless both play for the Brewers we don't watch them enough to make a accurate conclusion.

 

Statistics are better to accurately decide the value a player has or will provide in the future.

Correct regarding analytics having a place and must be used in combination with the eye test otherwise you're playing at a huge disadvantage.

 

But you have no idea how much baseball I watch or who I watch let alone anybody else on this board. Also, the eye test doesn't work on this board because none of us are scouts? I've already established you fall in that category so not shocked that you would lump everyone else on this board with you because heaven forbid someone actually understands the game better than you. One doesn't need to be a professional scout to have a relatively deep knowledge of the game, strategy, mechanical breakdowns/technical aspects and the intricacies involved on both sides of the ball.

 

Everyone's upbringing around the game is different - we learn from different people and sources - players and coaches at various levels, opponents, camps, family, friends, playing experience, etc. (I played college and have played with and against all levels up to ex-MLB and I've also coached little league, travel ball and HS). Other people just love the game and learn whatever it is they did from their little league/HS coaches/family/friends and from watching games so they don't have the in-depth knowledge of someone who's been exposed to it at a higher level. Scouts don't watch players a thousand times before understanding what their strengths/weaknesses are and identifying red/yellow flags. They maybe watch them 5-10x before official grading but they already have an idea by the 2nd-3rd time they've seen them because they understand the aspects of the game I listed above.

[And That]

none of us are professional scouts

That's not true. There are literally people employed as scouts who have posted here.

[FVBrewerFan]

Eye test means nothing for established MLB players, the numbers are there and tell the story. For MiLB you use all of the above. Draft is more eye test (scouting) than anything else because a HS pitchers WHIP means almost nothing.

[3and2Fastball]

For what it is worth, both Bill James & MLB Network's "Shredder" ranked Braun as the #1 Left Fielder in Baseball going into 2017....

[Boomer5]

Fangraphs isnt very impressed with Braun for 2017. Suggests a 2.0 WAR, which is a major drop.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3410&position=OF

[endaround]

Fangraphs isnt very impressed with Braun for 2017. Suggests a 2.0 WAR, which is a major drop.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3410&position=OF

 

Well that's Steamer which always seems to have really high regression to average in its projections. ZIPS has him at 2.4 but actually even more of an offensive regression but less of a defensive hit and more playing time. If you only care about offense (ie fantasy) you could see Braun as number 1 if you don't count Bryant. He's then in a close group with Yelich and Cespedes but both those players are younger.

[Oldcity]

Point is, he's still a big upgrade for SF and LAD. Really hoping one of them decides to acquire him.

[adambr2]

I don't think anyone is overly concerned about 2017 when acquiring Braun. It's 2019-20 that really is hampering our ability to trade him.

[SandyTolan]

Point is, he's still a big upgrade for SF and LAD. Really hoping one of them decides to acquire him.

 

That's why some serious salary relief, to the tune of $20M, which the Brewers can afford, would help them land better prospects.

[reillymcshane]

I don't think anyone is overly concerned about 2017 when acquiring Braun. It's 2019-20 that really is hampering our ability to trade him.

I agree.

 

If Braun had two years left on his deal - even if he was 35 - he'd probably be gone (assuming he hit like he did in 2016).

 

We're seeing teams are shying away from long term commitments, especially with older players. Carlos Beltran, age 56, was one of the first guys to sign. Why? It was a one year deal. No long term commitment.

 

Bautista, Encanarcion - all these older guys have gotten less than they anticipated - in years and in dollars. Other similar player - Napoli, Moss - are still waiting.

 

Only five hitters have gotten a deal longer than three years this off season (three for 4-years, two for 5-years). Those guys ages were 30, 31, 31, 31, 32.

 

It doesn't mean some team won't break the bank (in dollars and years) for a player, but right now, teams are wary of long term commitments for veterans.

[pacopete4]

The Dodgers. Lol. The Dodgers...

[adambr2]

Won't be DeLeon, not that he was ever coming here for Braun anyway.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Apparently Logan Forsythe has more trade value than Ryan Braun.

[mlloyd10]

Apparently Logan Forsythe has more trade value than Ryan Braun.

 

Trolling

[adambr2]

If you compare contract, position, and age, yes he does. In no universe would we be able to do the same deal with the Dodgers for Braun, straight up.

 

76M is way more than 16M. 76M is a huge problem for the Dodgers. Too often, maybe because it's not our money, we seem to distance ourselves mentally from financial implications on trade value. Money has an enormous affect on trade value.