What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[A Swing and A Drive]

Maybe something like this is a possibility with the Giants:

 

OF Ryan Braun

 

for

 

RHP Matt Cain (big salary dump)

RHP Tyler Beede #2 prospect

1B Chris Shaw #3 prospect

 

I'm a big believer in Shaw becoming a slightly above average 1B with 30 homerun upside. Beede doesn't excite me as much, but I could see him developing into a #3 type starter.

 

I'd be surprised if the Giants would part with both those prospects for Braun, even included Cain in the deal. I think it's quite obvious that the Brewers don't have a ton of leverage in trade negotiations right now, given his minimal surplus value and the limited number of trading partners.

[reillymcshane]

Maybe something like this is a possibility with the Giants:

 

OF Ryan Braun

 

for

 

RHP Matt Cain (big salary dump)

RHP Tyler Beede #2 prospect

1B Chris Shaw #3 prospect

 

I'm a big believer in Shaw becoming a slightly above average 1B with 30 homerun upside. Beede doesn't excite me as much, but I could see him developing into a #3 type starter.

 

I'd be surprised if the Giants would part with both those prospects for Braun, even included Cain in the deal. I think it's quite obvious that the Brewers don't have a ton of leverage in trade negotiations right now, given his minimal surplus value and the limited number of trading partners.

 

Shaw is a slow, unathletic, defensively challenged 1B who will likely get eaten up by higher level pitching. Yes, he could hit 30 HR - but he'll likley hit .220 and strike out a lot and play bad defense. I've had enough of those kinds of players.

 

Of course, now that I've said that, it means that Shaw will be an all star a few years from now.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Maybe something like this is a possibility with the Giants:

 

OF Ryan Braun

 

for

 

RHP Matt Cain (big salary dump)

RHP Tyler Beede #2 prospect

1B Chris Shaw #3 prospect

 

I'm a big believer in Shaw becoming a slightly above average 1B with 30 homerun upside. Beede doesn't excite me as much, but I could see him developing into a #3 type starter.

 

I'd be surprised if the Giants would part with both those prospects for Braun, even included Cain in the deal. I think it's quite obvious that the Brewers don't have a ton of leverage in trade negotiations right now, given his minimal surplus value and the limited number of trading partners.

 

Shaw is a slow, unathletic, defensively challenged 1B who will likely get eaten up by higher level pitching. Yes, he could hit 30 HR - but he'll likley hit .220 and strike out a lot and play bad defense. I've had enough of those kinds of players.

 

Of course, now that I've said that, it means that Shaw will be an all star a few years from now.

 

I agree. Chris Shaw will be an all-star. lol

[Madhawk23]

I know it was brought up a few pages ago, and I know we have no idea who the "mystery" team is that Braun added to his "OK to be traded to" list this offseason. But, let's say hypothetically it was the Toronto Blue Jays (since somebody reported that his wife is apparently from there?). What would be a reasonable trade package with Toronto? Do they have any bad contracts that they are looking to get rid of that we could take back to sweeten the prospect package coming back our way? Again, I know this is all hypothetical as we can only assume that Braun still has them on his no-trade list, but if they don't bring back Bautista it would appear that they still would have a major need for a power bat/corner outfielder.

 

How about this:

 

Blue Jays get Braun (perhaps the Brewers pick up some of the money remaining on his contract)

 

Brewers get Reid-Foley, Tellez and Pentecost

 

Is this too much of a return to expect for Braun if we were dealing with the Jays?

 

I'm guessing that Vlad Jr. is probably off limits at this point, since his stock appears to be soaring right now.

[MrTPlush]

madtownhawk-

 

It probably wasn't like that. Likely he added a team to his No-trade list not the other way around(like adding the Dodgers). The team that now can trade for him without approval probably makes little to no sense(think Twins or something).

[Madhawk23]

Oh - I guess I thought I read that he had added a team to those that he could be traded to (without his veto power)? Maybe I'm wrong though?

[MadThinker88]

I think he just moved his list around a little bit He only had x (be it 20 or 24 or whatever) number of teams to block trade too. To add one to that list, meant one already on the list would be removed.

[JosephC]

Maybe something like this is a possibility with the Giants:

 

OF Ryan Braun

 

for

 

RHP Matt Cain (big salary dump)

RHP Tyler Beede #2 prospect

1B Chris Shaw #3 prospect

 

I'm a big believer in Shaw becoming a slightly above average 1B with 30 homerun upside. Beede doesn't excite me as much, but I could see him developing into a #3 type starter.

 

I'd be surprised if the Giants would part with both those prospects for Braun, even included Cain in the deal. I think it's quite obvious that the Brewers don't have a ton of leverage in trade negotiations right now, given his minimal surplus value and the limited number of trading partners.

 

Cain has 10/5 rights which kills any deal to Milwaukee. He would likely demand the option year be guaranteed which would make it a 2 year, 41 million dollar contract and then a deal doesn't make any sense from the Brewer's end.

[JosephC]

I know it was brought up a few pages ago, and I know we have no idea who the "mystery" team is that Braun added to his "OK to be traded to" list this offseason. But, let's say hypothetically it was the Toronto Blue Jays (since somebody reported that his wife is apparently from there?). What would be a reasonable trade package with Toronto? Do they have any bad contracts that they are looking to get rid of that we could take back to sweeten the prospect package coming back our way? Again, I know this is all hypothetical as we can only assume that Braun still has them on his no-trade list, but if they don't bring back Bautista it would appear that they still would have a major need for a power bat/corner outfielder.

 

How about this:

 

Blue Jays get Braun (perhaps the Brewers pick up some of the money remaining on his contract)

 

Brewers get Reid-Foley, Tellez and Pentecost

 

Is this too much of a return to expect for Braun if we were dealing with the Jays?

 

I'm guessing that Vlad Jr. is probably off limits at this point, since his stock appears to be soaring right now.

 

I don't think Toronto has a contract to match up with Milwaukee so IMO Attanasio would have to write the Blue Jays a 22 million dollar check to even this deal up (the deferred money plus the buyout amount of the option year). It would bring the Blue Jays commitment down to 58 million over 4 years and Braun would only need to be about a 6.5 WAR over those four years to make it worth it from the financial standpoint. Kicking in that amount of money should bring back a pretty good return. I put Braun's surplus value in the 8-10 million range and when looking at that plus 22 million it is pretty close to what I would estimate the surplus value of the prospects you named: Reid-Foley = 15.6 million, Tellez = 10 million, Pentecost = 5 million.

[MKE81]

The return for Dozier hasn't been there for the same reason the Dodgers aren't adding another Top 10-15 to De Leon - because he isn't worth it, even with 2/15 left. He's a good defender, will hit 25HR and will steal some bases. His hit tool and on-base skills aren't close to being good. Moving forward he's most likely going to repeat his 2013-15 seasons so nobody's giving up multiple great prospects for him unless they're desperate (injuries, etc). This year was a fluke in the power department. Would you give up De Leon + #5/7/14 in system for 2yrs (granted cheap) of a 30-31yr old 2b that would move from one of the best hitters parks (overall, not just for right handed power) to one of the worst, which favors lefty power over righty power and is terrible for walks? 49% of his career HR came at Target. Last year like 75% of his HR came at HR friendly parks. We're talking about a guy who, prior to last year, had a slash line of 242/317/750 over the prior 3yrs while playing good defense and that guy would be now moving to a bottom 7 hitters park. That's why the Dodgers aren't giving up 2 great prospects for him. For reference, the past 3yrs Scooter has put up around 270/314/715 playing average at best defense. Clearly Dozier is better but you should get the point I'm making.

 

In the meantime, Braun - who has half the WAR of Dozier the past 3yrs, is 4yrs older, makes 5M more in one season than Dozier would over those 2yrs total, has a PED history, has injury issues in recent past - was bringing back a 26yr old who already proved twice that he's an elite talent + 2 prospects who no doubt would be solid as they'd fit the mold of what Stearns is trying to accomplish. Tell me again about this precious WAR everyone drools over and how Braun's contract, injuries and PED history are all major barriers because "MLB Trade rumors" says so...please, someone enlighten me (and by that I mean don't). Braun's biggest trade barrier has been, and will continue to be, his small list of teams he's comfortable going to.

 

Villar, right now, could definitely bring back De Leon + 1 very good prospect IF the Dodgers believe he'll produce similar results moving forward. He's 26 with 4yrs of control, very cheap, will be just as good as Dozier at 2b but with better range and arm, better hit tool and on-base skills, 60SB speed, 20HR potential and is a switch hitter with defensive versatility (3 IF spots). Literally the only thing Dozier has on him is more power. And for right now he's a proven better defender at 2b but Villar will open eyes this year. He shouldn't be traded for another 1-1.5yrs unless an offer is there this deadline - his peak value will be at that time, which will align perfectly for Dubon stepping in and the Brewers hopefully adding both MLB ready top prospects, like a De Leon, and those adding great depth in the system.

 

The Brewers and Dodgers no doubt had conversations after the season and Braun still makes the most sense there. But LA has renewed confidence in Puig due to his turn around in performance at season's end and his maturation as a person. Therefore they might not even want to part with him, but if they do they're valuing him even higher now so the quality of those 2 prospects coming back could be lower.

[adambr2]

The return for Dozier hasn't been there for the same reason the Dodgers aren't adding another Top 10-15 to De Leon - because he isn't worth it, even with 2/15 left. He's a good defender, will hit 25HR and will steal some bases. His hit tool and on-base skills aren't close to being good. Moving forward he's most likely going to repeat his 2013-15 seasons so nobody's giving up multiple great prospects for him unless they're desperate (injuries, etc). This year was a fluke in the power department. Would you give up De Leon + #5/7/14 in system for 2yrs (granted cheap) of a 30-31yr old 2b that would move from one of the best hitters parks (overall, not just for right handed power) to one of the worst, which favors lefty power over righty power and is terrible for walks? 49% of his career HR came at Target. Last year like 75% of his HR came at HR friendly parks. We're talking about a guy who, prior to last year, had a slash line of 242/317/750 over the prior 3yrs while playing good defense and that guy would be now moving to a bottom 7 hitters park. That's why the Dodgers aren't giving up 2 great prospects for him. For reference, the past 3yrs Scooter has put up around 270/314/715 playing average at best defense. Clearly Dozier is better but you should get the point I'm making.

 

In the meantime, Braun - who has half the WAR of Dozier the past 3yrs, is 4yrs older, makes 5M more in one season than Dozier would over those 2yrs total, has a PED history, has injury issues in recent past - was bringing back a 26yr old who already proved twice that he's an elite talent + 2 prospects who no doubt would be solid as they'd fit the mold of what Stearns is trying to accomplish. Tell me again about this precious WAR everyone drools over and how Braun's contract, injuries and PED history are all major barriers because "MLB Trade rumors" says so...please, someone enlighten me (and by that I mean don't). Braun's biggest trade barrier has been, and will continue to be, his small list of teams he's comfortable going to.

 

Villar, right now, could definitely bring back De Leon + 1 very good prospect IF the Dodgers believe he'll produce similar results moving forward. He's 26 with 4yrs of control, very cheap, will be just as good as Dozier at 2b but with better range and arm, better hit tool and on-base skills, 60SB speed, 20HR potential and is a switch hitter with defensive versatility (3 IF spots). Literally the only thing Dozier has on him is more power. And for right now he's a proven better defender at 2b but Villar will open eyes this year. He shouldn't be traded for another 1-1.5yrs unless an offer is there this deadline - his peak value will be at that time, which will align perfectly for Dubon stepping in and the Brewers hopefully adding both MLB ready top prospects, like a De Leon, and those adding great depth in the system.

 

The Brewers and Dodgers no doubt had conversations after the season and Braun still makes the most sense there. But LA has renewed confidence in Puig due to his turn around in performance at season's end and his maturation as a person. Therefore they might not even want to part with him, but if they do they're valuing him even higher now so the quality of those 2 prospects coming back could be lower.

 

You use a hypothetical return for Braun that no one knows the full details of and might not even be available at all anymore to downplay the significance of WAR in trade negotiations, but fail to mention someone like Adam Eaton whose trade value was clearly influenced by his high WAR.

 

WAR isn't the end all be all and no one claims it to be but it very obviously does play a factor in trade negotiations, and tells a lot more complete picture about a player than a BA/OBP/OPS slash line.

 

The shot at MLBtraderumors is also kind of weird as pretty much every writer on there has gone on record to say things like 'Braun is still a very good hitter and the Brewers aren't going to just give him away'. No doubt Braun's limited no trade market plays a factor in his negotiations but there are other factors involved as well, it's not just that one thing.

 

I have no idea what your point on Villar is -- he isn't going to bring back a DeLeon+a very good prospect right now, if he did that would be a pretty obvious match for the Brewers to consider right now. Of course if they knew he would replicate his success for another few years, but they don't know, just like no one knows if Broxton will replicate his success from the 2nd half of 2016, and no one knew if Nelson would continue his April-June success from 2016 to the rest of the year.

[And That]

WAR need not be perfect to have value. Just be better than alternative. That's very definition of value-added. That's how life works.

 

And just to note, if you're quoting AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, you're quoting derived statistics as well. That WAR is a more complicated formula than OPS does not make OPS any less of a formula, and both are completely fallible if used outside of their intended purpose. WAR has more information baked in, which I think is a good thing, and more handily compares batters to pitchers. Sort of like the OFP scouting grade on a prospect.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Braun "trade idea" article

 

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/brewers-dodgers-trade-idea-featuring-ryan-braun/

 

Los Angeles Dodgers receive: OF Ryan Braun, 2B Scooter Gennett

 

Milwaukee Brewers receive: OF Yasiel Puig, RHP Brandon McCarthy, RHP Imani Abdullah, 1B Edwin Rios

 

 

Don't see the point of doing this deal.

 

Seems like the Brewers should get those two prospects just for taking on McCarthy's contract.

[adambr2]

Braun "trade idea" article

 

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/brewers-dodgers-trade-idea-featuring-ryan-braun/

 

Los Angeles Dodgers receive: OF Ryan Braun, 2B Scooter Gennett

 

Milwaukee Brewers receive: OF Yasiel Puig, RHP Brandon McCarthy, RHP Imani Abdullah, 1B Edwin Rios

 

 

Don't see the point of doing this deal.

 

Seems like the Brewers should get those two prospects just for taking on McCarthy's contract.

 

McCarthy really is just in the deal to offset some of Braun's deal.

 

To be honest I think this deal is more likely / realistic than the ones throwing around DeLeon or other top prospects.

 

Not many are going to like it but if a Braun deal brings back Puig, I think it's highly likely Puig is the centerpiece of the deal.

[JohnBriggs12]

Braun "trade idea" article

 

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/brewers-dodgers-trade-idea-featuring-ryan-braun/

 

Los Angeles Dodgers receive: OF Ryan Braun, 2B Scooter Gennett

 

Milwaukee Brewers receive: OF Yasiel Puig, RHP Brandon McCarthy, RHP Imani Abdullah, 1B Edwin Rios

 

 

Don't see the point of doing this deal.

 

Seems like the Brewers should get those two prospects just for taking on McCarthy's contract.

 

McCarthy really is just in the deal to offset some of Braun's deal.

 

To be honest I think this deal is more likely / realistic than the ones throwing around DeLeon or other top prospects.

 

Not many are going to like it but if a Braun deal brings back Puig, I think it's highly likely Puig is the centerpiece of the deal.

 

 

Brewers would be better.off eating a bit of Braun's contract than having to take McCarthy. I wouldn't do that one either way

[SandyTolan]

OK I don't want to be presumptuous or anything but as the instigator of this topic lo these many months ago, should I get some special recognition, like a gold watch or at least a party hat, on the occasion of this thread having reached 1000 posts? Maybe some Frank Charles organ music? Retro stirrups for the old pinstripe uniforms? A frozen malted milk? Beuhler? Anybody?

 

On the other hand, I'd settle for a good return for Ryan Braun.

Or maybe we should curse you for having the read the same arguments made over and over and over

 

 

Good point, that. Maybe I should go sit in the corner with a golden dunce hat. Just let me have a TV, I can't miss the Packers game today.

[adambr2]

Braun "trade idea" article

 

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/brewers-dodgers-trade-idea-featuring-ryan-braun/

 

Los Angeles Dodgers receive: OF Ryan Braun, 2B Scooter Gennett

 

Milwaukee Brewers receive: OF Yasiel Puig, RHP Brandon McCarthy, RHP Imani Abdullah, 1B Edwin Rios

 

 

Don't see the point of doing this deal.

 

Seems like the Brewers should get those two prospects just for taking on McCarthy's contract.

 

McCarthy really is just in the deal to offset some of Braun's deal.

 

To be honest I think this deal is more likely / realistic than the ones throwing around DeLeon or other top prospects.

 

Not many are going to like it but if a Braun deal brings back Puig, I think it's highly likely Puig is the centerpiece of the deal.

 

 

Brewers would be better.off eating a bit of Braun's contract than having to take McCarthy. I wouldn't do that one either way

 

If you have to take back 30M either way what's the difference? May as well take the player and hope for enough of a rebound to either be useful for the team or good enough to dump some of his salary later. There's no difference between eating 30M and taking on a 30M dollar player and just releasing him so there's no risk in taking the player.

[endaround]

Because of the salary tax the Brewers would have to pay more in salary instead of just taking McCarthy back to be the same for the Dodgers.

[adambr2]

Because of the salary tax the Brewers would have to pay more in salary instead of just taking McCarthy back to be the same for the Dodgers.

 

Is that how that works? I assumed that if we were paying say, $30M of Braun's remaining deal, the Dodgers would only have to pay the tax on the remaining $46M for a total of $69M.

 

If they have to pay on the full $76M then an extra 50% would cost $114M and the $30M of relief would still leave them owing $84M, so it'd be much more advantageous to the Dodgers it we just took B Mac.

[Oldcity]

Completely fine with that proposed deal. Decent chance Puig has a strong year and could really bring back a haul when the Brewers flip him. Most importantly, it clears the outfield in a few years when they'll have to decide between Broxton/Santana/Brinson/Phillips/Ray/Clark, not to mention Cordell/Orimoloye/Taylor/Harrison.

[And That]

Not in love with that proposed deal, but Imani Abdullah would be a nice piece - very Stearnsian type younger guy who could break out in the next year or two.

[Austin Tatious]

 

When the Brewers talked to the Dodgers during last season about a Ryan Braun deal, they expected there would be clubs interested this winter. He’s 33. He hit .305 with 30 homers last season. His OPS the last three seasons has risen from .777 to .854 to .903. The Brewers clearly would pay down some of the $76M remaining on his contract.

 

But the interest in Braun hasn’t been there. One general manager says why would anyone give up a couple of prospects and take on some of the money when there are bats like Mark Trumbo and Jose Bautista on the market who require only cash, no talent in return? And one more factor—the way his representatives handled his 2013 suspension, trying to put the blame on a UPS driver, still leaves a bad taste in many mouths around the game.

 

 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-ten-thoughts-when-not-slipping-on-black-ice/

[pete]

Well, Manfred's behavior has disappointed me several times including having his mealy mouthed lawyer do the standard criminal dodge when asked about buying stolen property. I could add a lot more but it would veer into politics.

 

Regarding WAR: the above conclusion that it certainly played a part in the Eaton trade is not supported by the premises. He had a high WAR and the price was high do not mean that they are joined. I'd say the chance that the Nationals use UZR or DRS as significant factors is pretty small. And I'd be shocked if they used a single number that baked in everything at all.

 

Think of outside of baseball. Life is filled with issues and decisions that have massive amounts of data, are evaluated by experts - people with PHDs in statistics - and the debate is over sets of data and their interpretation. Over time the conclusions often change.

[A Swing and A Drive]

 

When the Brewers talked to the Dodgers during last season about a Ryan Braun deal, they expected there would be clubs interested this winter. He’s 33. He hit .305 with 30 homers last season. His OPS the last three seasons has risen from .777 to .854 to .903. The Brewers clearly would pay down some of the $76M remaining on his contract.

 

But the interest in Braun hasn’t been there. One general manager says why would anyone give up a couple of prospects and take on some of the money when there are bats like Mark Trumbo and Jose Bautista on the market who require only cash, no talent in return? And one more factor—the way his representatives handled his 2013 suspension, trying to put the blame on a UPS driver, still leaves a bad taste in many mouths around the game.

 

 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-ten-thoughts-when-not-slipping-on-black-ice/

 

 

First of all, Trumbo and Bautista were both offered qualifying offers, so teams WOULD have to give up talent (a high draft pick) to sign either of those guys. However, neither of those guys are getting a 4 year deal. That's what Braun still has left on his current deal.

 

Teams can't see taking the risk of that length of contract AND give up minor league talent.

 

But I have long thought that Brewer fans have given Braun a free pass on the handling of his PED testing, but I highly doubted the rest of the league had.

[jerichoholicninja]

If the league can "forgive" Melky Cabrera for setting up a fake company to try and bypass a PED suspension they can get past Braun being a dick (but being right) about the tester not following protocol with his sample. Any time a writer brings this up it's just because they need to fill space.