What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[tmwiese55]

Yea it sucks the way this looks now. But contract-wise we all should remember it's the nature of MLB contracts that these guys get massively underpaid the first chunk of their career and massively overpaid at the end to compensate. As recently as 2015 he was making 'only' 12 mil. Basically just reminding everyone that in spite of MKE likely getting negative value the next few years that they got way more value out of him prior to this and that's kind of just the way it is in baseball. In 2011 and 2012 which he should've been MVP in both he made 10 mil combined for both years. Just trying to keep it in perspective.

[adambr2]

The last few reactionary posts are ridiculous. When healthy, he has been among the most consistent players in the league. I can't think of a cold streak from the guy.

 

He has had 3 bad games since coming off the DL. His worst possible output means hitting .270/.325./.450. When he is on the DL, he is NOT blocking anybody younger, and if his replacements hit as well as he does when he is at his worst, we would call them a resounding success.

 

So his floor is a .775 OPS and we should be happy to pay him $19M a year to be here since he'll be hurt a lot and so our younger guys will get plenty of chances. That's your argument?

 

I think he's saying you're overreacting because you're not paying him a dime and he won't really be blocking anyone. Lets not act like Braun is the first guy to get some money in his 30's and possibly not live up to the contract. I still think he will over the course of it but even if he doesn't, so what? The Brewers will adjust and move forward. We make a bigger deal about this on these boards than I bet the front office does or even MA who is paying the bills.

 

We have no idea what the FO or Mark A says about this behind closed doors. Yes they'll adjust and move forward, because they have no choice.

 

No, he wouldn't be the first guy not to live up to his contract, but most franchises can better afford that expensive of a mistake, and we DID have a chance to trade him.

[JosephC]

Braun probably sits in the top 10 in negative surplus value when looking around the league. The only way he gets traded now is if the Brewers are willing to gamble on an equally bad contract. Pedro Sandoval or Jordan Zimmerman? What even makes a deal harder now is everyone including Braun knows that he will have zero earning potential past the buyout of the option year, so for him to approve any deal outside of LA the team(s) will have to come up with another 11 million dollars which puts one more hurdle on a potential trade.

 

I agreed with Stearns "hold" move with Braun at the deadline last year. In retrospect it was a mistake. Even if the deal would have only been Puig and McCarthy, that still would have been a good deal for Milwaukee considering McCarthy is off to a good start (3.76 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP). McCarthy could have been retained as a valuable rotation piece of this season (and maybe next year), or is looking like a pretty decent trade chip since he has 1 2/3 years of team control left and is only due about 16.67 million over that timeframe. Puig has been terrible in May...has slashed a poor .222/.273/.361/.634...but he has also hit 3 home runs, knocked in 12 runs and scored 13 runs which is far better than the almost nothing production the Brewers got out of Braun this month (.410 OPS, 2 runs, 1 RBI).

 

Stearns has turned in a grand-slam type performance since he got here but doing the "hold" on Braun will likely go down as his first major mistake. Hopefully I'm wrong and Braun will come back, stay healthy in 2018 and 2019 and OPS .850 - .900. I don't see it happening but the guy is talented so it can't be ruled out.

[bill hAll Star]

Braun, even if injury prone, is way better than Sandoval or Zimmermann. Those guys are AAAA players at this point when healthy. I think Sandoval may be a decent hitter now that he's somewhat back in shape, but he can't stay healthy either.

 

Braun, when healthy, is still a borderline All Star bat. He just is a negative value fielder and he's not the elite All Star hitter he once was.

 

In regard to the Puig/McCarthy/2 (probably uninspiring) prospects deal, sure, I think in hindsight it's better to have bird in hand. At the very least, you're cutting off the final 2 years of Braun's deal which may be somewhat important years that we'd need money, but I still don't think Braun's contract will be very prohibitive. We probably won't need huge cash $ until 2021. I'd still call it a pessimistic wash given that Braun still has a better chance of giving us value either as a player in 2019/2020 or in trade value as opposed to McCarthy, Puig, and the prospects.

[tmwiese55]

Right but Bos would have a need for him at DH and we'd take Sandoval's contract to help their cost a bit. We'd save money, they'd get a DH and middle of the order bat they desperately need. Sandoval is essentially useless to us, it's just the money so hopefully they'd throw in some lower level lotto ticket type in a deal like this. Who knows if he'd even consider going into the media circus of Bos and just east coast in general, but maybe with every injury he realizes more and more he needs to be a DH. And apparently in Boston as long as you hit well and win a title or two you're still a hero in spite of PEDs.

[MrTPlush]

While Ryan Braun should still have a decent bat regardless of injuries(we hope) the defense is what is going to kill his value where he honestly probably won't be our best option to roam LF. If he becomes a 3 WAR offensive bat here on out(maybe optimistic in the long run) he would easily counter that with -1.0 dWAR or more. I bet we could find a way cheaper player to put up 2 WAR. We have three CFers in AAA right now that could probably put up a lot of that with their defense alone in LF.

 

I don't think it is as hard to find a similar value player as some think if Braun is going to be injured so much and decline offensively.

[bill hAll Star]

I bet we could find a way cheaper player to put up 2 WAR.

 

Likely 2019 lineup:

 

C: 700k

1B: 6mm

2B: 3mm

SS: 3mm

3B: 700k

LF: ?

CF: 700k

RF: 700k

 

Bench: Combined 5mm

 

The entire pitching staff will probably cost 20mm

 

Your analysis of his value is astute, but in terms of what his contract means to us, it is very minimal. I know that isn't your main point and that maybe we can find something better, but the $ isn't a huge sticking point. I'm not dying to pencil him in at LF until his contract ends, but if he does end up staying with the Brewers all the way through 2020 or even 2021, the $ likely won't be a huge issue.

 

I understand that the extra $ can be funneled elsewhere in the organization, but I think that if Mark wants to, he can do everything he wants to keep rebuilding the organizationand pay Braun for 3 more years after this.

 

I'm sure we'll overpay some vets to fill holes by the above example in 2019, but we probably only have 40-50 million of guaranteed money not including Braun if most of the prospects come up by then.

[bill hAll Star]

Right but Bos would have a need for him at DH and we'd take Sandoval's contract to help their cost a bit. We'd save money, they'd get a DH and middle of the order bat they desperately need. Sandoval is essentially useless to us, it's just the money so hopefully they'd throw in some lower level lotto ticket type in a deal like this. Who knows if he'd even consider going into the media circus of Bos and just east coast in general, but maybe with every injury he realizes more and more he needs to be a DH. And apparently in Boston as long as you hit well and win a title or two you're still a hero in spite of PEDs.

 

I'd like to get a very good prospect in that example. We're basically just cutting a year off of the contract if it is Braun for Sandoval straight up. Braun is paid $~20 million/year through 2020 with a '21 option of $4 million buyout and Sandoval is $18 million through '19 with a '20 option of $5 million buyout.

 

We're basically giving Boston an All Star DH to save $20 million in a year that we'll barely need it.

 

Let's say this rebuild is going pretty well and by 2019 we've got a playoff contending team with a deep farm system. Look at teams like Houston who have done this and to plug holes they'll sign an overpriced vet like Beltran to a 2-year deal because when you're contending, you might as well spend up to $100+ million instead of staying at the $55 million all of your young team fills up. We'll essentially just be signing Braun to one of those gap-filling deals for a 2 year deal. Beltran may be a bad example because they really signed him as he went over the hill, but there are plenty of good examples like John Lackey to fill out the Cubs rotation.

 

We do have depth at OF, so maybe Braun is the overpriced 4th OF by then, maybe (unlikely) we'll be able to have a DH in '19/'20, or maybe we trade Braun for a similarly overpriced pitcher to be our #4 starter or for an overpriced 3B if we don't have a solution there.

[adambr2]

A year ago it sounded inevitable that the DH was on its way to the NL. Now it sounds like it'll still be awhile. Too bad.

[tmwiese55]

Right but Bos would have a need for him at DH and we'd take Sandoval's contract to help their cost a bit. We'd save money, they'd get a DH and middle of the order bat they desperately need. Sandoval is essentially useless to us, it's just the money so hopefully they'd throw in some lower level lotto ticket type in a deal like this. Who knows if he'd even consider going into the media circus of Bos and just east coast in general, but maybe with every injury he realizes more and more he needs to be a DH. And apparently in Boston as long as you hit well and win a title or two you're still a hero in spite of PEDs.

 

I'd like to get a very good prospect in that example. We're basically just cutting a year off of the contract if it is Braun for Sandoval straight up. Braun is paid $~20 million/year through 2020 with a '21 option of $4 million buyout and Sandoval is $18 million through '19 with a '20 option of $5 million buyout.

 

We're basically giving Boston an All Star DH to save $20 million in a year that we'll barely need it.

 

Let's say this rebuild is going pretty well and by 2019 we've got a playoff contending team with a deep farm system. Look at teams like Houston who have done this and to plug holes they'll sign an overpriced vet like Beltran to a 2-year deal because when you're contending, you might as well spend up to $100+ million instead of staying at the $55 million all of your young team fills up. We'll essentially just be signing Braun to one of those gap-filling deals for a 2 year deal.

 

We do have depth at OF, so maybe Braun is the overpriced 4th OF by then, maybe (unlikely) we'll be able to have a DH in '19/'20, or maybe we trade Braun for a similarly overpriced pitcher to be our #4 starter or for an overpriced 3B if we don't have a solution there.

 

I agree i'd rather just keep him unless you get something legit. Just putting out a basic framework that could work but of course lots of things around it to sort out. Plus, Pablo isn't a known lying cheater. He just takes contracts and then gets fat and doesn't try. That seems important to many.

[MrTPlush]

I should rephrase. My main concern is the fact we could potentially find a better option than Braun in the future that we can't use because it is sitting in LF. I really don't care about the money that much. They could make him a 4th outfielder if he gets injured/decline enough...however the problem is the Brewers would never do such a thing and that is where the problem/concern could arise.

 

Though I will say I hate when people downplay the effect of his money because payroll could/would be low. There are always alternative ways to spend that money that people seems to love ignoring. We could have went out and signed some mega international free agent etc etc etc instead. Wasting money is bad and negative regardless. Let's not try to sugar coat that. Ryan Braun will never be a crippling player adversely effecting what we can do...that is he right side. However the deal and him being on the team could end up being a terrible move(by not trading him)

 

Also I can't stress enough I am talking in a lot of hypotheticals. I am not saying he will do this or that. Just pointing out a potential scenario. So no one needs to freak out in that sense at me. Maybe this injury encyclopedia so far won't continue for 3 more years...we do t know for sure yet.

[bill hAll Star]

I should rephrase. My main concern is the fact we could potentially find a better option than Braun in the future that we can't use because it is sitting in LF. I really don't care about the money that much. They could make him a 4th outfielder if he gets injured/decline enough...however the problem is the Brewers would never do such a thing and that is where the problem/concern could arise.

 

Though I will say I hate when people downplay the effect of his money because payroll could/would be low. There are always alternative ways to spend that money that people seems to love ignoring. We could have went out and signed some mega international free agent etc etc etc instead. Wasting money is bad and negative regardless. Let's not try to sugar coat that. Ryan Braun will never be a crippling player adversely effecting what we can do...that is he right side. However the deal and him being on the team could end up being a terrible move(by not trading him)

 

Also I can't stress enough I am talking in a lot of hypotheticals. I am not saying he will do this or that. Just pointing out a potential scenario. So no one needs to freak out in that sense at me. Maybe this injury encyclopedia so far won't continue for 3 more years...we do t know for sure yet.

 

I totally get the scouting and international signings argument...but in reality if Mark wants to do that, Mark can do that. The payroll is probably $60 million under what Mark's max would be with Braun on the roster next year. I can't imagine they're going to go bonkers in free agency next year, so if Mark wants to do these things, he can.

 

It could be deemed just as foolish to deal something of value for a nominal salary relief just so you can have the bird in hand. Some wanted to deal Lucroy at all costs when he was hurt/struggling 2 years ago just to get the wheels going on the rebuild. Maybe Stearns missed the window on Braun but I hold out for as much value as I can for as long as I can and that works the majority of the time. It's not like we're the 2013-era Phillies holding on to every single asset beyond his prime.

[leitermab07]

Players across the league have been reported to absolutely have no respect for Ryan Braun after how he handled his positive testing. Rodgers is no longer even talking to him. I will listen and follow how players in the same profession feel about him, because they actually know him personally and understand what it takes to be a PRO.. unlike all of us. Yes, he has had some great moments in Brewers history and will be considered one of the best hitters in Brewers history (not saying too much). But when it comes down to it, I have no respect for the dude.

[MrTPlush]

Can we please not make this a thread about people's opinion on Braun as a person and all that junk?

[wildcat2237]

Players across the league have been reported to absolutely have no respect for Ryan Braun after how he handled his positive testing. Rodgers is no longer even talking to him. I will listen and follow how players in the same profession feel about him, because they actually know him personally and understand what it takes to be a PRO.. unlike all of us. Yes, he has had some great moments in Brewers history and will be considered one of the best hitters in Brewers history (not saying too much). But when it comes down to it, I have no respect for the dude.

 

+1. Braun cheated. Lied about it. Cheated again. And got caught again. Bad dude. it saddens me that the Brewers have not been able to trade him and also saddens me that they gave him the money they did. I dont think the contract is bad enough that it will hamstring the rebuild, but it is certainly not good.

[trwi7]

Braun didn't cheat twice. His suspension from the Biogenesis investigation came from the original positive test. I mean, I guess he could've cheated again but he wasn't caught if he did.

[MrTPlush]

Braun didn't cheat twice. His suspension from the Biogenesis investigation came from the original positive test. I mean, I guess he could've cheated again but he wasn't caught if he did.

 

He was caught twice though...for the same test.

[wildcat2237]

Braun didn't cheat twice. His suspension from the Biogenesis investigation came from the original positive test. I mean, I guess he could've cheated again but he wasn't caught if he did.

 

He was caught twice though...for the same test.

 

Correction.

 

Braun got caught (testosterone test).

 

Braun lied and won his appeal while bashing Dino Lorenzi's reputation.

 

Braun then got caught again (Biogenesis) and struck a deal whereby he got suspended 65 games and did not appeal. Braun then came clean and admitted he lied and bashed Lorenzi.

 

Disputed testosterone test[edit]

On December 10, 2011, a confidential urine test conducted in October 2011 was leaked to ESPN's Outside the Lines.[166][167][168][169] They reported that Braun had tested positive for an elevated level of testosterone caused by a performance-enhancing drug and faced a 50-game suspension. The Daily News quoted a source who said that the test results were "insanely high, the highest ever for anyone who has ever taken a test, twice the level of the highest test ever taken".[170] A second test conducted by an independent laboratory showed normal testosterone levels.[171] Braun appealed the positive drug test in January 2012, and a three-member panel overturned the results on a 2-to-1 vote on February 22, 2012.[172] It was the first time that a MLB player had successfully challenged a drug test result.[173] The arbitration panel, consisting of MLB representative Rob Manfred, players' union lawyer Michael Weiner, and Shyam Das, determined that Braun had raised valid questions about the manner in which test collector Dino Laurenzi, Jr. had handled his sample.[174]

 

The New York Times wrote that Braun "won on a technicality".[175] Braun's sample was collected and sealed on a Saturday. Laurenzi said that no FedEx delivery center was open, and he subsequently followed established protocol and stored the samples in a Rubbermaid container; he dropped the samples off to an open FedEx center on Monday.[171] Braun, though, said there were at least five FedEx locations within 5 miles that were open until 9 p.m. and there also was a 24-hour location.[176] MLB argued that there was no evidence of tampering of the sample, and the United States Anti-Doping Agency said the testosterone levels in the samples would not grow in a refrigerator over a weekend.[171] MLB's drug-testing program states that the samples should be sent to the laboratory on the same day they are collected "absent unusual circumstance".[171]

 

Links to Biogenesis clinic and MLB suspension[edit]

Main article: Biogenesis baseball scandal

In February 2013, Yahoo! Sports reported that Braun's name appeared three times in records of Biogenesis of America, a Coral Gables clinic alleged to have distributed performance-enhancing drugs to a number of Major League Baseball players who tested positive for banned substances.[177] One entry noted that Braun owed the clinic between $20,000 and $30,000.[177] Braun's name was not listed next to any specific PEDs, unlike some of the other players mentioned in the records.[177] Braun released a statement maintaining that his attorneys had retained the clinic's operator, Anthony Bosch, as a consultant during his appeal of his positive drug test the previous season, and denied any further dealings with the clinic.[177]

 

Later that month, ESPN's Outside the Lines obtained a new Biogenesis document from April 2012 listing Braun among three other MLB players with the notation: "MLB Ryan Braun + 1500."[178] An ESPN source said to be familiar with Bosch's operation claimed the list was of players who obtained PEDs from Bosch and their respective balances, with a circle around the plus sign next to a player's name indicating his balance was paid off.[178] In late April, Bosch confirmed to ESPN that Braun's legal team merely consulted with him during Braun's appeal, and confirmed that he never spoke to Braun himself.[179]

 

On June 4, 2013, ESPN reported that MLB was preparing suspensions for players linked to using PEDs provided by Biogenesis of America, and its founder, Anthony Bosch. ESPN reported that Braun could have been suspended for as many as 100 games if found guilty, although the appeals process could take months and not yield a suspension until 2014.[180]

 

On July 22, 2013, MLB suspended Braun for the remaining 65 games of the regular season, plus the entire postseason, for his involvement with the Biogenesis clinic. Braun, who lost $3.25 million as a result, did not appeal the suspension. In a statement, he said, "I realize now that I have made some mistakes. I am willing to accept the consequences of those actions." ESPN reported that Braun decided to "strike a deal" with MLB after being presented with the evidence against him.[181] Called a "liar", he was heavily criticized by the media and other players, particularly for tarnishing Laurenzi's reputation.[182][183] In particular, it was later exposed that Braun engaged in a campaign for support from players around the league, accusing Laurenzi Jr. of being an anti-Semite.[184][185]

 

Although the standard suspension for a first offense under MLB's drug policy is 50 games, Braun was suspended an additional 15 games for his actions during and after his appeal of the 2011 test. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, MLB officials were particularly angered by a speech Braun made during 2012 spring training in which he attacked Laurenzi's integrity and the integrity of the drug program as a whole. MLB considered Braun's speech, as well as his earlier attacks on Laurenzi, to be conduct detrimental to baseball—an offense punishable under the collective bargaining agreement, not the drug policy. Braun accepted the additional suspension without appeal because of overwhelming evidence in the Biogenesis case.[186] On August 22, Braun released a statement in which he apologized for using PEDs.[187] He admitted he used PED's during the later part of the 2011 season to nurse a nagging injury. The products he used were a cream and a lozenge that would expedite his rehabilitation.

[adambr2]

"In particular, it was later exposed that Braun engaged in a campaign for support from players around the league, accusing Laurenzi Jr. of being an anti-Semite."

 

 

That's pretty terrible if true.

[rcc]

No to Sandoval. Boston signed him to a big contract and he has failed to stay in shape and can't field his position. He's on the DL right now and taking his time recuperating. He can't hit anymore either. His manager makes excuses for him and CC doesn't seem like the babysitter type. Keep Braun.

 

Third base isn't a need anyway. Shaw is doing well and Perez is also doing well when needed.

 

Braun can't stay off the DL either but at least he can field his position and can still hit.

[JosephC]

When I threw out names like Sandoval and Zimmerman, it wasn't to suggest those as possible trade targets. Only suggesting that to move Braun the Brewers will have to take back an ugly contract like that.

 

Even when looking at taking back a really ugly contract, I still can't find a match for Braun. Maybe if the Victor Martinez deal ended after this year, then a Braun for Zimmerman swap could work because IMO opinion Zimmerman has an even higher negative surplus value than Braun so the deal would probably include a couple prospects headed to Milwaukee. But as desperate as the Tigers are to unload Zimmerman, acquiring Braun still would make no sense for them with the DH spot occupied and Justin Upton having a pretty good year in left field. Not to mention Miguel Cabrera is probably ticketed to be their DH-of-the-future.

 

Braun really seems to be completely unmovable. If Stearns can find a deal for him I would be very surprised.

[adambr2]

 

Though I will say I hate when people downplay the effect of his money because payroll could/would be low. There are always alternative ways to spend that money that people seems to love ignoring. We could have went out and signed some mega international free agent etc etc etc instead. Wasting money is bad and negative regardless. Let's not try to sugar coat that. Ryan Braun will never be a crippling player adversely effecting what we can do...that is he right side. However the deal and him being on the team could end up being a terrible move(by not trading him).

 

Yeah, I don't get that. Over the course of his remaining contract including this season, we have a minimum of an $80M obligation to Braun, most of which could have been avoided with an August trade.

 

$80M is not some amount to idly dismiss like it's no big deal, especially for a small market team. Yes, Mark still has money to spend, but maybe there's money he would be willing to spend on something with a payroll of $40M that he's not willing to push for with a $60M payroll, we don't know.

 

Look at what the White Sox just gave Luis Robert, an incredible international prospect, 2nd best in the world, $26M, or about $50M with the penalty. That's still $30M less than our obligation to Braun. Now I'm not even saying we could have or would have signed Robert, I'm just using that to show the magnitude of that kind of waste and the alternatives.

 

Like you said, wasting money is always a bad thing. If Ryan Braun is a 90 game a year 1 WAR player each year for the rest of his contract on average, that is bad for us. Let's not try to pretend like it's not just because Mark A. is rich and still has other money to spend.

[brewerfan82]

The reason people bring up the low payroll is because it makes Braun's contract not prohibitive of making other baseball moves if the opportunity is there. If the Brewers thought $50m to sign Robert was a good move, I don't think Braun's contract prohibited them from doing that and they would have made that move whether we had Braun or not. Now if our payroll was at $120m AND we had Braun's contract, then you could make a stronger case that his contract is a reason we couldn't make a move like that.

 

It doesn't mean it's not a bad contract or that MA shouldn't care about it, but a lower payroll should make his contract less effective on what DS can and cannot do as the GM. All that said, maybe MA is telling DS that he can't make a move like that because the payroll isn't $20m lower than it already is, but we've seen him spend a lot more money on the team than we're currently spending and he seems to be an owner that will give the go ahead if a move makes good baseball sense, so it seems unlikely that would be restricting DS's ability to develop the franchise at this point.

[adambr2]

The reason people bring up the low payroll is because it makes Braun's contract not prohibitive of making other baseball moves if the opportunity is there. If the Brewers thought $50m to sign Robert was a good move, I don't think Braun's contract prohibited them from doing that and they would have made that move whether we had Braun or not. Now if our payroll was at $120m AND we had Braun's contract, then you could make a stronger case that his contract is a reason we couldn't make a move like that.

 

It doesn't mean it's not a bad contract or that MA shouldn't care about it, but a lower payroll should make his contract less effective on what DS can and cannot do as the GM. All that said, maybe MA is telling DS that he can't make a move like that because the payroll isn't $20m lower than it already is, but we've seen him spend a lot more money on the team than we're currently spending and he seems to be an owner that will give the go ahead if a move makes good baseball sense, so it seems unlikely that would be restricting DS's ability to develop the franchise at this point.

 

Its also entirely possible that DS and MA might be more inclined to take a risk on Robert (or other expenditure, just using Robert for an example), if they had a $40M payroll, but feel less comfortable doing so with payroll being where it is in the interest of preserving flexibility. If I want to take the family on a $3,000 vacation and have $9,000 in savings, maybe I'm not comfortable doing so but would be if I had $13,000 in savings. I can still afford it either way, but it's still different situations.

 

I think it just helps people feel better about throwing away a third of our payroll if they think it doesn't really matter, which I can understand, but there's absolutely no way we can know for sure that Mark A is spending exactly what he would be spending on regardless of whether Braun is on the payroll or not. It doesn't mean we can't be successful in our rebuild, but more flexibility is of course always better than less.

[pacopete4]

More negative speculation just to hate on Braun because of dislike for him. We sure love to make mountains out of mole hills.