What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[adambr2]

No , the 4 years is a real killer. I wouldn't expect it to be as difficult to deal him if his contract ran through 2018, but 2020 is tough. He's already about as durable as tissue paper at this point, hard to see it being much better in 3 years.

[MrTPlush]

^True^

 

^True^

[brewcrewdue80]

If you take the top 30 selections since, would the Brewers rank dead last in WAR from their selections vs the other MLB teams?

Not sure, but their top picks have been pretty putrid:

 

[pre]YEAR PCK PLAYER POS WAR

---- --- ------ --- ---

2006 16 Jeremy Jeffress RHP 4.0

2007 7 Matt LaPorta 1B -0.9

2008 16 Brett Lawrie 3B 15.4

2009 26 Eric Arnett RHP

2010 14 Dylan Covey RHP -0.7

2011 12 Taylor Jungmann RHP 1.1

2012 27 Clint Coulter C

2014 12 Kodi Medeiros LHP

2015 15 Trent Clark OF

2016 5 Corey Ray OF[/pre]

 

I can elaborate more in my question. Im looking for top 30 selections signed by teams. And the performance for the team who drafted the player, or if traded like Jeffress & Lawrie the WAR return the year following. You would include Roache and Bradley since they were top 30 selections. But knowing what those did It would seem to me the Brewers havent gotten more than 5WAR out of 1st round picks since Braun.if my computer worked Id be able to dig more in to this. But Im only with a phone and cant research this. Pretty much the WAR since Braun is only in the form of Marcum via Lawrie trade.

 

I dont even recall if Jeffress was traded?

[Oxy]

I haven't read through this whole thread and won't, but what about a Braun+Hader+etc. for Julio Urias? Could we make something like that work? Braun+Thames+Hader for Urias+Bellinger+??

[leitermab07]

I haven't read through this whole thread and won't, but what about a Braun+Hader+etc. for Julio Urias? Could we make something like that work? Braun+Thames+Hader for Urias+Bellinger+??

 

You have taken off the fair trades on video games too much. A fragile 33 year old making $20+ million, a 23 year old Lefty who may only be successful in the BP and a 30 yr old 2 month sensation from Korea for two 20 year old studs... I wish

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree that Dodgers trade proposal would only make sense for teams in fantasy or video game baseball.

 

In real life baseball, Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias might be two of the most "untouchable" young players in the game when it comes to trades at this point.

 

Doubt either are going to be traded.

 

It is frustrating knowing that the Dodgers have all the money in the world....plus two 20 year old franchise players while the Brewers currently have none.

[Oxy]

There should be nothing untouchable about Bellinger. He's a slightly better prospect than Hader. He's about to turn 22 and slashed .263/.359/.484 at AA last year as a first basemen. Big whoop.

 

Braun would is a borderline HOF talent with a few good years left, and Thames looks pretty good. I'll happily keep those guys if the rest of the league is that enamored with their unproven prospects.

[A Swing and A Drive]

If you've seen Bellinger play, it's fairly obvious that he has the talent to be one of the top 10 players in baseball.

 

I firmly believe that he'll be an annual future MVP candidate.

[FVBrewerFan]

There should be nothing untouchable about Bellinger. He's a slightly better prospect than Hader. He's about to turn 22 and slashed .263/.359/.484 at AA last year as a first basemen. Big whoop.

 

Braun would is a borderline HOF talent with a few good years left, and Thames looks pretty good. I'll happily keep those guys if the rest of the league is that enamored with their unproven prospects.

 

I'm not sure I could find anyone in baseball who would take Braun/Thames over Bellinger/Urias, but you never know I guess.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Even if their salaries were the same, no one in baseball would take Braun/Thames over Bellinger/Urias.

 

Age alone.

 

Braun and Thames are on the verge of exiting their prime years, while Bellinger/Urias are yet on the cusp of entering theirs.

[tmwiese55]

Urias could be a top 5 pitcher and is a phenom. A basically completely untouchable on the par of people like Strasburg, Harper as they came up. Basically he would not be in any discussion that doesn't include Trout or Harper coming back to them.

[adambr2]

Even if their production were the same (and I think most would concede that Bellinger will likely outproduce Braun the next 4 years), it surprises me how much people overlook the cost control element of trading proven players and prospects.

 

Trade value in its simplest form is nothing more than the surplus value of what a player would get as a free agent weighed against their actual contract. Its part of what has caused difficulties trading Braun -- he'd likely get 4/80 as a free agent right now, but if he exceeded it, it likely wouldn't be by much. Which is why to get anything worthwhile, we have to be willing to eat some of the contract to improve the surplus value.

 

That's really why guys like Bellinger for Braun were never realistic. No matter how you feel about the unproven nature of prospects, high ceiling ones with 6 years control have tremendous value. Bellinger makes essentially nothing for the rest of Braun's contract and therefore has about a $75M head start in surplus value before you even consider production and control beyond that.

 

I know we want to shoot for the moon on the most valuable player we've had in decades, but the reality is Braun's injuries and contract cause him to not really be all that close to the top of our roster in terms of surplus value. He's behind Thames, Broxton, Knebel, Perez, and probably numerous others in that regard. And several prospects in our system who haven't played a day in the majors. Just the way it is.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Even if their production were the same (and I think most would concede that Bellinger will likely outproduce Braun the next 4 years), it surprises me how much people overlook the cost control element of trading proven players and prospects.

 

Trade value in its simplest form is nothing more than the surplus value of what a player would get as a free agent weighed against their actual contract. Its part of what has caused difficulties trading Braun -- he'd likely get 4/80 as a free agent right now, but if he exceeded it, it likely wouldn't be by much. Which is why to get anything worthwhile, we have to be willing to eat some of the contract to improve the surplus value.

 

That's really why guys like Bellinger for Braun were never realistic. No matter how you feel about the unproven nature of prospects, high ceiling ones with 6 years control have tremendous value. Bellinger makes essentially nothing for the rest of Braun's contract and therefore has about a $75M head start in surplus value before you even consider production and control beyond that.

 

I know we want to shoot for the moon on the most valuable player we've had in decades, but the reality is Braun's injuries and contract cause him to not really be all that close to the top of our roster in terms of surplus value. He's behind Thames, Broxton, Knebel, Perez, and probably numerous others in that regard. And several prospects in our system who haven't played a day in the majors. Just the way it is.

 

Nice post. This sums it up perfectly. You just made the previous pages of this thread a moot point. lol

 

This is without even bringing up the fact of Braun's now FULL trade veto power and a near non-existent trade market.

 

It's simple to see why Braun is still a Brewer.

 

On the bright side, when healthy, Braun is still producing at a high level and earning his contract.

 

It's not like the Brewers are stuck with a Ryan Howard-type albatross contract/no production type situation that is impeding our rebuild.

 

The only thing Braun's presence is impeding may be player development at some point, but for now the Brewers are playing some nice baseball as the weather is heating up. Braun's bat remaining in the lineup also has a ripple effect on the batters hitting in the potent Brewers lineup around him, thus increasing their production and value to the organization.

 

Brewer fans can maybe stop focusing on what we can "get" for Braun, and perhaps discuss other potential trade chips like Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Junior Guerra, and of course the great Eric Sogard!

[tmwiese55]

Well said by adam and swing. I'd add to it that key part of the non-existent market for him is that his nagging injury history is basically making him an AL only option at this point. And if you go through AL contenders there just isn't any of them that need a DH. Could probably argue Bos and TX but both are paying large salaries for others. A year or two down the line maybe that will change, but as of now I don't see how an NL team can take on a 4 year commitment to him.

[FVBrewerFan]

And if all that is true, goes to show you win some, you lose some in the GM world. Hindsight being 20/20, Stearns should have taken whatever he could from the Dodgers. But at the time, made sense to hold out.

[tmwiese55]

Well to be fair we don't know how bad of a low ball it was from LAD at the deadline. If all we got was Puig and whichever pitcher was dead money for them and some nobody prospects, then whatever. I'd rather just have Braun.

[MrTPlush]

And if all that is true, goes to show you win some, you lose some in the GM world. Hindsight being 20/20, Stearns should have taken whatever he could from the Dodgers. But at the time, made sense to hold out.

 

I am assuming you are referring to Stearns personally...because it's pretty debatable other than that.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well to be fair we don't know how bad of a low ball it was from LAD at the deadline. If all we got was Puig and whichever pitcher was dead money for them and some nobody prospects, then whatever. I'd rather just have Braun.

 

We'll see. May not know that answer for another 3 years. A part of me though wishes that deal would have got done, even if it was Puig and junk in return. Clear the salary for 4 years, and spare all the if/when will Braun be traded, on and off the DL, etc. Stearns was probably smart to walk away if that was the deal, but it wouldn't have been all bad.

[leitermab07]

I agree that Dodgers trade proposal would only make sense for teams in fantasy or video game baseball.

 

In real life baseball, Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias might be two of the most "untouchable" young players in the game when it comes to trades at this point.

 

Doubt either are going to be traded.

 

It is frustrating knowing that the Dodgers have all the money in the world....plus two 20 year old franchise players while the Brewers currently have none.

 

 

Couldn't agree more, but what makes it more frustrating is that you are not even counting 2 other young players who are one of the best at their positions: last years Rookie of the Year Corey Seager (23) and Clayton Kershaw (29) and still have 5 top 100 prospect players (according to MLB pipeline). I want the Brewers to be like this, where there is a consistent amount of young players coming to the big leagues every year. Especially, because if/when these players become great, the Brewers will be lucky to sign 1 or 2 of them as Prince and Braun showed us. This a big reason that I am not a fan of trading any prospects for a wild card game. Now, if that trade includes a Cordell type for a decent pitcher that we have control for a couple years. Then I'd be fine with that.

[JosephC]

It's too bad that Braun had these injuries because Puig's slumping again. .309 OBP/.722 OPS on the season but has only slashed .250/.276/.375/.651 in May. Both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have him as a 0.1 WAR player. Obviously was in the doghouse last year and have to wonder if the Dodgers will be looking to part ways with Puig once late June rolls around. His 2016 WAR values from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs averaged out to 1.2. Probably would project him as a 1 WAR player moving forward and now his contract is large enough where he has surplus value but it is minimal. If Braun wouldn't have gotten hurt, the Dodgers could have taken Puig, swapped in Scott Kazmir for Brandon McCarthy and pretty much started the "two other prospects" talk again.

[Oxy]

What about the Yankees? Chance Adams, Albert Abreu, Nolan Martinez and Ian Clarkin? Would this be good enough for both sides? Throw in Jorge Guzman for fun?

[JDBrewCrew]

Won't happen but I'd take that deal.

[Oxy]

Rangers? Cole Ragans, Alex Speas, Jonathan Hernandez and Mike Matuella?

[Lathund]

Isn't the problem with both the Rangers and the Yankees that Braun has full no-trade rights, and seemingly is only interested in moving to California? I'm sure there are several other teams that both could use Braun, and have the players to reach a deal with the Brewers, but that don't interest Braun.

[MrTPlush]

I said this before(before he went on the DL) and I will say it again...this thread/conversation is completely pointless if he doesn't start playing more and at least pretend to be healthy. He has played(in the field) in only 58% of our games. That has no trade value whatsoever. It isn't even worth talking about trading him if this is how it is going to be.