What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[3and2Fastball]

Dozier will be 30 in 2017, just had a 6.5 WAR season as a 2B with 42 HR's, he's under contract for 2 more years for $15 million total and has barely missed a game in the last 4 years

 

Braun will be 33 in 2017, just had a 4.4 WAR season as a LF with 30 HR's, he's under contract for 4 more years for $77 million total and has missed a lot of games in the last 4 years

 

Huge difference in value and expected return

[HighHeat19]

So some of you are saying we would only get one of Bellinger or Verdugo for Braun. We know the success rate of high rated prospects is nowhere near 100 percent. And we should give up a all star caliber player who we know will flat out hit and be the difference maker the Dodgers could of used last year and would benefit the Dodgers tremendously this year for 1 top prospect who may turn out to be mediocre? No. I'm getting Bellinger and Verdugo in return. Hell, the Twins were asking for DeLeon and Bellinger. And I view Verdugo a lesser prospect than DeLeon.

 

We give up a guaranteed asset, then we need a guaranteed asset in return. 2 players in the top 100 get us a closer to a guaranteed asset, and that's not even a 100%.

 

And whatever happened to interest over time. Technically the Dodgers would be getting an asset now. We have to wait for our assets to grow.

[adambr2]

Dozier will be 30 in 2017, just had a 6.5 WAR season as a 2B with 42 HR's, he's under contract for 2 more years for $15 million total and has barely missed a game in the last 4 years

 

Braun will be 33 in 2017, just had a 4.4 WAR season as a LF with 30 HR's, he's under contract for 4 more years for $77 million total and has missed a lot of games in the last 4 years

 

Huge difference in value and expected return

 

Even if you look at the last 3 years or the last 4, Dozier blows Braun away in terms of total WAR.

 

You have to go all the way back to 2011 and 2012 to get to when Braun was truly one of the game's elite players. No one is going to pay us for what Braun did 4-5 years ago, especially at 19M a season for 4 seasons.

 

If Braun repeats his 2016 for another 2 seasons, there's a real chance he could have better value by then as a team would only take a 2 year risk rather than a 4. Until then, I think people are going to be disappointed.

[adambr2]

So some of you are saying we would only get one of Bellinger or Verdugo for Braun.

 

Nope, neither one, most likely.

 

If Stearns got offered Bellinger for Braun straight up tonight, with no salary going to LA, he'd take about 3 seconds to accept and party in the streets of Milwaukee tonight.

[HighHeat19]

Bellinger alone will never put up the stats Braun has or will moving forward.

[HighHeat19]

Braun at first base in 2019 and 2020 would put up better stats than Bellinger at first base during that same time frame when the Brewers are to compete. Keep Braun then if your going to get robbed.

[adambr2]

Bellinger alone will never put up the stats Braun has or will moving forward.

 

Not even close to being the only factor whether he does or not. Cost, age, control, health and availability, position, potential for decline, these are all things that figure into the equation when comparing prospect value to MLB player.

 

It's not nearly as simple as deciding whether Prospect A will match the stats of Player B. If it was we should have no trouble trading Braun for Yoan Moncada since Moncada is only a 'prospect' and unlikely to match Braun's stats.

[HighHeat19]

Braun at first base in 2019 and 2020 would put up better stats than Bellinger at first base during that same time frame when the Brewers are to compete. Keep Braun then if your going to get robbed.

 

This. The goal is to win. Not moving pieces around for the sake of value.

[adambr2]

Braun at first base in 2019 and 2020 would put up better stats than Bellinger at first base during that same time frame when the Brewers are to compete. Keep Braun then if your going to get robbed.

 

I would doubt this very much, but if they are anywhere even close, one is a 24-25 year old with upside doing it for less than a million dollars, and one is a 36-37 year old with no upside doing it for $19M. Big difference.

[adambr2]

Braun at first base in 2019 and 2020 would put up better stats than Bellinger at first base during that same time frame when the Brewers are to compete. Keep Braun then if your going to get robbed.

 

This. The goal is to win. Not moving pieces around for the sake of value.

 

If the long -term picture was of no concern and the goal was simply to win as many games as possible every year, we wouldn't have traded Lucroy. Value is extremely crucial to a rebuild. Obviously we want the best possible value for Braun, but the Dodgers are certainly smart to value, too.

 

Also, did you really mean to quote and agree with yourself?

[HighHeat19]

Braun at first base in 2019 and 2020 would put up better stats than Bellinger at first base during that same time frame when the Brewers are to compete. Keep Braun then if your going to get robbed.

 

I would doubt this very much, but if they are anywhere even close, one is a 24-25 year old with upside doing it for less than a million dollars, and one is a 36-37 year old with no upside doing it for $19M. Big difference.

 

Assuming the 24-25 year old makes the big league roster during that time. Remember it's about a 50/50 chance that Bellinger will make it as an everyday player. Braun won't be Pujols ancient at that timeframe either. Braun is actually very fit compared to most his age. Look how long Konerko played and put up outstanding numbers.

[HighHeat19]

Braun at first base in 2019 and 2020 would put up better stats than Bellinger at first base during that same time frame when the Brewers are to compete. Keep Braun then if your going to get robbed.

 

This. The goal is to win. Not moving pieces around for the sake of value.

 

If the long -term picture was of no concern and the goal was simply to win as many games as possible every year, we wouldn't have traded Lucroy. Value is extremely crucial to a rebuild. Obviously we want the best possible value for Braun, but the Dodgers are certainly smart to value, too.

 

Also, did you really mean to quote and agree with yourself?

 

Lucroy's contract is/was not going to make it to when the Brewers will compete again. Braun's very well can.

 

Did I quote and agree with myself? Of course. I like myself.

[adambr2]

Braun at first base in 2019 and 2020 would put up better stats than Bellinger at first base during that same time frame when the Brewers are to compete. Keep Braun then if your going to get robbed.

 

I would doubt this very much, but if they are anywhere even close, one is a 24-25 year old with upside doing it for less than a million dollars, and one is a 36-37 year old with no upside doing it for $19M. Big difference.

 

Assuming the 24-25 year old makes the big league roster during that time. Remember it's about a 50/50 chance that Bellinger will make it as an everyday player. Braun won't be Pujols ancient at that timeframe either. Braun is actually very fit compared to most his age. Look how long Konerko played and put up outstanding numbers.

 

Look I'm not going to get into the comparisons of who aged well and who didn't because some guys still play well into their late 30s and some don't. There's no use trying to predict it because it's just not possible, there are numerous examples on both sides. Obviously this concern needs to be factored in for the Dodgers to take him on for 4 years.

 

I also think the 50/50 prediction on Bellinger is probably way wrong since he's already at AAA now as a 21 year old. Would you say Brinson is a 50/50 shot to make it as a big leaguer right now? I sure hope not, or we got fleeced. I could understand that statement for a first round pick but for a top 30 prospect who is already in AAA, no.

 

I think your ask for Braun is a pipe dream. Rest assured if I am wrong and we land 2 top 50s for Braun I will be the first one here to happily eat crow.

[endaround]

Braun at first base in 2019 and 2020 would put up better stats than Bellinger at first base during that same time frame when the Brewers are to compete. Keep Braun then if your going to get robbed.

 

I would doubt this very much, but if they are anywhere even close, one is a 24-25 year old with upside doing it for less than a million dollars, and one is a 36-37 year old with no upside doing it for $19M. Big difference.

 

Assuming the 24-25 year old makes the big league roster during that time. Remember it's about a 50/50 chance that Bellinger will make it as an everyday player. Braun won't be Pujols ancient at that timeframe either. Braun is actually very fit compared to most his age. Look how long Konerko played and put up outstanding numbers.

 

Its funny you bring up Pujols. For his age 32 season he had a wRC+ of 133. For Braun's age 32 season, last year, he had a wRC+ of 133. Pujols had some solid season after that but in year 4 (last year) he is no longer a guy you want starting for a competing team.

[pete]

Well, comparing any 2 players is difficult, but Pujols and Braun is a mess. AP has a variety of health issues. What's the story with his foot? Braun had an issue with his hand that seems resolved. He had an issue with his back that supposedly took last season to completely resolve. That's just a start.

 

I don't think any team is going to get Bellinger, so the Twins or Brewers not getting him may not have much meaning. I'd guess the Dodgers FO doesn't ignore the rest of Dozier's career either.

[adambr2]

I'd guess the Dodgers FO doesn't ignore the rest of Dozier's career either.

 

Which is still really solid. Average of about 4 bWAR a season from 2013-2015, which covers every other full season of his career. I'd say if anything his track record reinforces his value, it doesn't take away from it. The Dodgers don't need or likely even expect 40+ HR out of him. He's still valuable .

[MrTPlush]

Well, comparing any 2 players is difficult, but Pujols and Braun is a mess. AP has a variety of health issues. What's the story with his foot? Braun had an issue with his hand that seems resolved. He had an issue with his back that supposedly took last season to completely resolve. That's just a start.

 

I don't think any team is going to get Bellinger, so the Twins or Brewers not getting him may not have much meaning. I'd guess the Dodgers FO doesn't ignore the rest of Dozier's career either.

 

Braun's thumb has not and never will resolve. He has admitted that before that it will likely linger for the rest of his playing career.

 

Back injuries almost mever(maybe never) resolve. Those tend to be pretty chronic.

 

Braun has injury issues himself that could very well negatively effect him the coming years.

[SandyTolan]

OK I don't want to be presumptuous or anything but as the instigator of this topic lo these many months ago, should I get some special recognition, like a gold watch or at least a party hat, on the occasion of this thread having reached 1000 posts? Maybe some Frank Charles organ music? Retro stirrups for the old pinstripe uniforms? A frozen malted milk? Beuhler? Anybody?

 

On the other hand, I'd settle for a good return for Ryan Braun.

[A Swing and A Drive]

1000 posts and Braun is still a Brewer.

 

Very telling on how the rest of the league values him.

[pacopete4]

1000 posts and Braun is still a Brewer.

 

Very telling on how the rest of the league values him.

 

 

Silly comment. The "rest" of the league cannot have Ryan Braun. Only six teams can. And it's debatable as to how many of those are actual matches for him.

 

 

But Ryan Braun will be a Brewer until he is not. Something I think we can all agree on.

[pete]

Its solid, but if the Twins want a lot, I could see the trade not happening. They aren't going to use the defensive side of the WAR formula and the hitting is solid to just all right prior to last season. Given his ability to hit LH, that's a nice fit and a smart trade for both sides, but not some great get for the Dodgers.

 

I'd put Bellinger alone at no chance and if he's 1 of 2 or 3, fuhget about it. Who knows what the discussion is, but I noticed in the hometown paper, the Twins beat writer had a story where he went through prospective team's top prospects as if they were on the table. I think he might have even listed Alex Reyes. That's crazy talk.

[pete]

 

Braun's thumb has not and never will resolve. He has admitted that before that it will likely linger for the rest of his playing career.

 

Back injuries almost mever(maybe never) resolve. Those tend to be pretty chronic.

 

Braun has injury issues himself that could very well negatively effect him the coming years.

 

Regarding the thumb are you going off of comments soon after the procedure? When was the last time his thumb being a problem occurred in a story or interview?

 

Back problems resolve. Its not unusual to have back issues that are chronic. I do. He had a surgical procedure on a disc. That's not all back problems. I recall a comment by him that the doctors told him it would take a full year following the procedure for the scar tissue to break up and to return to full health. That would mean that his performance last season was negatively affected by recovery which is now complete.

[splitterpfj]

The market for power bats has been lousy this winter, there are lots of options available, I think that's why Braun is still here.

[MrTPlush]

 

Braun's thumb has not and never will resolve. He has admitted that before that it will likely linger for the rest of his playing career.

 

Back injuries almost mever(maybe never) resolve. Those tend to be pretty chronic.

 

Braun has injury issues himself that could very well negatively effect him the coming years.

 

Regarding the thumb are you going off of comments soon after the procedure? When was the last time his thumb being a problem occurred in a story or interview?

 

Back problems resolve. Its not unusual to have back issues that are chronic. I do. He had a surgical procedure on a disc. That's not all back problems. I recall a comment by him that the doctors told him it would take a full year following the procedure for the scar tissue to break up and to return to full health. That would mean that his performance last season was negatively affected by recovery which is now complete.

 

 

I know Braun mentions it from time to time. It wasn't a huge issue last season for him, but I recall him mentioning it at least once or twice. I think the back issues were talked about and overshadowed the thumb Hopefully his thumb doesn't bother him too much going forward.

 

The back is sort of a mystery going forward. I know Braun felt great last season, but that doesn't mean it won't be a problem going forward. Between his hamstring issues, thumb, and back it is probably safe to say in the next 4 years something will nag him. It's no for sure thing, but it is a sizable risk teams have to consider when putting together their valuation of Braun.

[reillymcshane]

OK I don't want to be presumptuous or anything but as the instigator of this topic lo these many months ago, should I get some special recognition, like a gold watch or at least a party hat, on the occasion of this thread having reached 1000 posts? Maybe some Frank Charles organ music? Retro stirrups for the old pinstripe uniforms? A frozen malted milk? Beuhler? Anybody?

 

On the other hand, I'd settle for a good return for Ryan Braun.

Or maybe we should curse you for having the read the same arguments made over and over and over