What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[Austin Tatious]

I assume you guys all saw Haudricourt's piece from the weekend, which looked to be sourced. The Brewers' position is that we would want significant prospects and aren't going to pay a ton of money to get them. There are only a few teams, tops, where a deal could even be made per Braun's wishes.

 

So, we know there will be no deal just to shed salary, and the Brewers will want significant prospects back.

 

Now, whether the Dodgers ever step up to meet the asking price, that's a different question. But, there's no need to speculate what the Brewers have set Braun's market as; we know.

[MrTPlush]

Is he undercontract in 2020? Then they are trading for 2020 Braun.

No, they aren't, unless they think he's still going to be as productive in 2020. They are, more likely than not, trading for Braun's production over the next year or two and are fully aware he probably won't be the same player in 2020.

 

Who should pay for 2020 Braun may well be why he hasn't been traded. That part can be negotiated. But production 4 years down the line is not what teams are trading for. So in a way it doesn't really matter what his WAR will be 2020.

 

That is the problem though. They don't want to trade for 2020 Braun...but they would have to. Unless you think the Brewers would pick up that much money, but I really doubt it. Not to mention it sounds like most teams wish it was 2 years after this...not 4. So that is a near $40mil problem.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I predict this thread will keep going for at least a couple more years.

 

If Braun remains healthy and productive, maybe we can get something of value for him then.

 

Until then, he has virtually no surplus value and virtually no market.

[JosephC]

Problem is that his surplus value changes on a week-to-week basis.

 

On April 30th he was slashing .287/.374/.586/.960 and was on pace to play in 150 games this season. Pretty easy to see a surplus value of 10 to 20 million at that point.

 

On May 8th the slash line is still impressive but now he's on pace to play 127 games this season and now it's perfectly reasonable to see him as having negative surplus value.

 

Add in that in less than a week he'd be able to leverage another 11 million out of a team ("I'll waive my 10/5 rights only if the 2021 team option is turned into a player option") in a trade situation and it's hard to see him being moved at all. This all works out for Milwaukee if he continues to hit (which he will) and play (which is the big question). If he ends up playing about 110 games per year it's a bad contract for a small-market team in a rebuild, and I don't care how low the payroll is...a bad contract is a bad contract.

[brewerfan82]

I predict this thread will keep going for at least a couple more years.

This brings up an interesting question... How close is this thread to being the longest in BF.net history? What are its closest competitors?

[Boomer5]

I predict this thread will keep going for at least a couple more years.

 

If Braun remains healthy and productive, maybe we can get something of value for him then.

 

Until then, he has virtually no surplus value and virtually no market.

 

He just doesn't play enough games to justify his contract anymore. Our payroll is so low and we aren't contending so it doesn't matter to us, but it will to a team that is asked to take on $76M and elite prospects.

 

We would be naive to think that once he returns this thing won't return and certainly not for the next 3 years after this. Nagging injuries are just that.

 

Our best, and probably only, bet is LA feels they are a Braun away from a WS at the deadline.

[Boomer5]

So with a 4-WAR at $7mil per WAR, he is worth $28mil. Fun stuff.

1.0 WAR is worth closer to $8 million.

 

Braun would have to produce about 9 WAR between '17-'20 to justify his contract, based on the WAR measurement. I'd probably take the over on 9, but how much excess value other teams would assign his contract is a little dubious. That said, teams wouldn't be trading for 2020 Ryan Braun, they'd be trading for 2017-2018 Ryan Braun.

 

Acccording to fangraphs, he hasn't come to close to being a 4 war player since 2012, when he was an amazing 7.3

 

Since then it's been 1.6, 0.8, 2.9, 3.2.

 

So far in 2017 he is at 0.5 with a projection of 1.6.

 

I think it's very far to say that no rival GM sees him as a 4 WAR guy and his recent visits (plural) to the training table won't help. He is now the " nagging injury guy" and that won't help his long term value.

 

However, a WS is a game changer so a desperate LA might pull the trigger.

[reillymcshane]

Braun has actually only started 130-135 games a year for the last three years. He usually gets in a half dozen more games as a pinch hitter. But his days of starting 150+ games appear past. Like a lot of older guys, he gets dinged up more than he used to. Not a shocker.

 

Unless he can DH, I don't think any team would view him as anything more than what he has shown - a guy that will need some time off here an there.

[nate82]

So with a 4-WAR at $7mil per WAR, he is worth $28mil. Fun stuff.

1.0 WAR is worth closer to $8 million.

 

Braun would have to produce about 9 WAR between '17-'20 to justify his contract, based on the WAR measurement. I'd probably take the over on 9, but how much excess value other teams would assign his contract is a little dubious. That said, teams wouldn't be trading for 2020 Ryan Braun, they'd be trading for 2017-2018 Ryan Braun.

 

Acccording to fangraphs, he hasn't come to close to being a 4 war player since 2012, when he was an amazing 7.3

 

Since then it's been 1.6, 0.8, 2.9, 3.2.

 

So far in 2017 he is at 0.5 with a projection of 1.6.

 

I think it's very far to say that no rival GM sees him as a 4 WAR guy and his recent visits (plural) to the training table won't help. He is now the " nagging injury guy" and that won't help his long term value.

 

However, a WS is a game changer so a desperate LA might pull the trigger.

 

Braun doesn't need to be a 4 WAR player to reach the value of his contract. Braun only needs to put up about 9 WAR in the next 4 season which averages out to 2.25 WAR which is very much attainable for Braun. Those projections are off and are basically taking into account the worst case scenario for Braun basically they have him only playing 100 games with a sharp decline in his offensive numbers especially when you look at his offensive WAR. Braun should put up somewhere between 13-20 offensive WAR which should raise his WAR up to around 2.5 each year. At 2.5 WAR for the next two years or better there are a lot of teams that would take that. The problem the Brewers have with trading Braun is less so his contract and more so on the limited market of where he can go.

 

Braun is only going to accept a few trades and the teams that he would accept a trade to are down to about two teams. Simple supply and demand tells us that his value is going to be limited because of this. If Braun didn't have a no trade clause and he was available to all teams you would see a higher demand and he would have been traded last year. The only hard part of that trade then is how much the Brewers would have to eat for the last year of Braun's contract and that is probably the easiest part of the deal as it will depend on the type of prospects coming back.

[reillymcshane]

People have said it.

 

Braun is only going to accept trades to a few teams. The Brewers aren't going to kick in a huge amount of money to facilitate a deal - and they want some decent players back in return.

 

That all just makes a deal extremely hard to come up with.

[adambr2]

I really wish the DH was in the NL. Would solve most of this.

[OnTheBlack]

Is he undercontract in 2020? Then they are trading for 2020 Braun. If teams didn't care about the later years why have there been reports of teams not liking the length of the contract. That has been one of the bigger hurdles(via rumor).

 

So you mean to tell me the D-backs were signing Grienke for 35 million dollars for the 2022 season when he be going on 38 because they were confident he was going to be a great pitcher in 2022?

 

Of course not. What's more, while WAR may be a valuable tool to evaluate how good a player is, it's not like it literally translates into wins, not do projections from Fangraphs or other sites nearly as much as some would suggest on here.

 

The guy can hit .300 with 25-35 HR's and still steal 20+ bags while posting a wRC+ of 130 to 140.

 

I think you're going a bit too far into the weeds on this one. Teams are looking to win now. Braun can most certainly help them do that. I also frankly have not heard or seen all these rumors that the biggest hurdle has been them not liking the length of his deal. I've seen it written as a purely speculative statement by many writers...and that's their job, to examine things from all angles. I haven't heard any trades were falling apart because of his years or salary.

 

The rumors I'VE heard were that Stearns was simply looking for a massive return for him and the Dodgers weren't willing to meet that. But it must not have been so outrageous to the Dodgers as they've continually checked in on his availability.

[OnTheBlack]

Is he undercontract in 2020? Then they are trading for 2020 Braun.

No, they aren't, unless they think he's still going to be as productive in 2020. They are, more likely than not, trading for Braun's production over the next year or two and are fully aware he probably won't be the same player in 2020.

 

Who should pay for 2020 Braun may well be why he hasn't been traded. That part can be negotiated. But production 4 years down the line is not what teams are trading for. So in a way it doesn't really matter what his WAR will be 2020.

 

That is the problem though. They don't want to trade for 2020 Braun...but they would have to. Unless you think the Brewers would pick up that much money, but I really doubt it. Not to mention it sounds like most teams wish it was 2 years after this...not 4. So that is a near $40mil problem.

 

And right now Theo Epstien is really wishing that Jake Arrieta would be willing to take a 4 year contract rather than the 7 year deal he's was talking about last off-season. I'm sure the M's wish they could have gotten Cano for 7 years instead of 10....and on and on.

 

But teams make concessions. They understand they're going to have to pay in the back end for production up front that may help them win a World Series.

I also don't think his 17 million when he's 37 in 2020 is going to look like nearly as much in MLB in another 3 years. Heck, its not now. Again, look at 40 year old Carlos Beltran making 16 million.

 

Again, .900 OPS players are very rare. We're fixated on his WAR whereas I think the teams we're trading him to are most likely more interested in how he fits into their lineup this year and next. Then of course there is the issue of using his WAR from the year he was suspended and only played in 60 games and then the following year when he dealt with a thumb injury that APPEARS to have been rectified.

Now it's mainly precautionary games off, a pulled muscle once or twice a year that leads to a week off.

 

Out of the 15 guys who posted OPS's of .900 plus last year, other than Nelson Cruz, you're talking about almost exclusively franchise type players or young superstars who aren't going anywhere unless it's part of a blockbuster type deal involving multiple top 50 prospects. So I hardly see it as a reach that the Brewers could expect to get a guy like Yadier Alvarez, a top 45 prospect and two more lower rated prospects.

 

It's also worth pointing out that the Dodgers are a heavily left handed team with between 5 and 6 of their regulars hitting from the left side of the plate as well as the fact that their best run producer is out indefinitely. So I'm still missing how those of us who believe we can flip him for an elite prospect are not "realistic."

[MrTPlush]

I think you answered your own question of why he isn't getting Top 50 prospects back.

 

1) He isn't a young superstar.

 

2) Yes, teams give players deals where they know the later years may be bad *in free agency*. So if they view Braun's contract as market value so to speak that's why good prospects aren't being offered. Last I checked when Cano or other similar players got those contracts they are younger and said team isn't sacrificing prospects.

 

 

Also you are seriously downplaying his injuries. The thumb wasn't rectified and Braun has mention in the past it flares up causing problems. Add in all the other yearly injuries and back I am sure there is a lot of concern on the injury front.

[Madhawk23]

Again - I know that this isn't my money I'm talking about, but why wouldn't the Brewers be willing to eat some of Braun's salary (maybe just enough to make the remaining money worthwhile for another team to take on the "risk" of taking Braun for his final years), as long as that meant that we got back one Top 50 prospect in the return? We'd still be saving ourselves millions of dollars by getting rid of most of that remaining salary, and we'd get another big piece for our future that may help bring a winner back to Milwaukee? To me, this seems like a no brainer.

 

With that said, who says "no" to this deal:

 

LA gets: Braun, 15 million

 

Mil gets: Buehler, Mitchell White

 

I know Buehler is blowing up right now, but shouldn't they have to give up something of value to get a bat like Braun that might be the missing piece to get them over the hump in the playoffs?

 

If we can make this happen, Buehler might be the "ace" pitcher that our system still appears to be lacking right now. Then, you could start to slot Woodruff, Hader, Ortiz, etc. behind Buehler in our future rotation plans.

 

Maybe I'm dreaming here, but I think this is a deal that would make sense for both teams come July. Now, please get health Braun.....and stay healthy!

[MrTPlush]

Again - I know that this isn't my money I'm talking about, but why wouldn't the Brewers be willing to eat some of Braun's salary (maybe just enough to make the remaining money worthwhile for another team to take on the "risk" of taking Braun for his final years), as long as that meant that we got back one Top 50 prospect in the return?

 

Because when you talk about eating money it is almost always taken as something super negative.

 

Lets say Braun is worth $10mil in surplus value. Sure we could just take the prospects that is worth, but if you could throw in $15mil and make that surplus value $25mil to acquire a Buehler is that a bad thing? I don't think anyone has ever vouched we eat millions of dollars just to move Braun for AAAA fluff. People want to eat money to get elite prospects that are impossible to acquire with money alone and takes a special situation to get.

 

I am with you. I will eat some money if it causes a difference maker prospect to come back. Trading Braun is partially to free up the money to invest in other ways. Using it right away to nab a prospect like Buehler etc. wouldn't be too bad of a start.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Again - I know that this isn't my money I'm talking about, but why wouldn't the Brewers be willing to eat some of Braun's salary (maybe just enough to make the remaining money worthwhile for another team to take on the "risk" of taking Braun for his final years), as long as that meant that we got back one Top 50 prospect in the return? We'd still be saving ourselves millions of dollars by getting rid of most of that remaining salary, and we'd get another big piece for our future that may help bring a winner back to Milwaukee? To me, this seems like a no brainer.

 

With that said, who says "no" to this deal:

 

LA gets: Braun, 15 million

 

Mil gets: Buehler, Mitchell White

 

I know Buehler is blowing up right now, but shouldn't they have to give up something of value to get a bat like Braun that might be the missing piece to get them over the hump in the playoffs?

 

If we can make this happen, Buehler might be the "ace" pitcher that our system still appears to be lacking right now. Then, you could start to slot Woodruff, Hader, Ortiz, etc. behind Buehler in our future rotation plans.

 

Maybe I'm dreaming here, but I think this is a deal that would make sense for both teams come July. Now, please get health Braun.....and stay healthy!

 

 

Nice proposal. However, the Dodgers will have all the leverage because it's pretty clear that they are the ONLY team realistically in play to make a trade for Braun before the deadline this year. With Bumgarner out, the Giants are fading fast and won't be making a move for Braun this year.

 

I think Walker Buehler is off the table as an option. When talks with the Twins for Dozier came up, Dodgers came out and said they valued Buehler more than Jose De Leon and Brock Stewart. Since then, Buehler has been pumping fastballs in the upper 90s and has looked unhittable in the minors.

 

A more realistic proposal may be something like this:

 

LA gets: OF Ryan Braun, ??? million

 

Mil gets: RHP Mitchell White (or RHP Brock Stewart) AND 2B/OF Willie Calhoun (or 3B Edwin Rios)

 

The amount of money the Brewers kick in would probably be determined by their "choice" of offered prospects.

 

 

Although most Brewer fans would be disappointed with the return, I think it's because they feel that Braun is still a franchise player in their minds and expect a equal "FANTASY TRADE" type return.

 

So this still begs the question: SHOULD a rebuilding team like the Brewers pull the trigger on a deal like this?

 

PROS:

- Brings in more depth of controllable, young talent.

- Frees up LF for Brewers to develop young OF prospects at MLB level.

- Invest money from contract savings back into future of the organization.

 

CONS:

- Trade away a Hall-of-Fame level talent that is still being productive when healthy.

- Lose long-time "Face of the Franchise"

- PR hit and Ticket sales hit

 

It's a interesting dilemma for the Franchise, but ultimately the ball is still in the Dodgers court or else Braun remains a Brewer and we keep hearing Braun trade rumors for years to come.

 

If he had the character of a Robin Yount, I'd say the Brewers should allow him to be a lifetime Brewer and mentor the youngsters coming up. The way Braun was involved in AND handled the whole PED thing showed his true colors and makes me lean toward moving on from him if/when the opportunity even arises.

[Madhawk23]

Again - I know that this isn't my money I'm talking about, but why wouldn't the Brewers be willing to eat some of Braun's salary (maybe just enough to make the remaining money worthwhile for another team to take on the "risk" of taking Braun for his final years), as long as that meant that we got back one Top 50 prospect in the return? We'd still be saving ourselves millions of dollars by getting rid of most of that remaining salary, and we'd get another big piece for our future that may help bring a winner back to Milwaukee? To me, this seems like a no brainer.

 

With that said, who says "no" to this deal:

 

LA gets: Braun, 15 million

 

Mil gets: Buehler, Mitchell White

 

I know Buehler is blowing up right now, but shouldn't they have to give up something of value to get a bat like Braun that might be the missing piece to get them over the hump in the playoffs?

 

If we can make this happen, Buehler might be the "ace" pitcher that our system still appears to be lacking right now. Then, you could start to slot Woodruff, Hader, Ortiz, etc. behind Buehler in our future rotation plans.

 

Maybe I'm dreaming here, but I think this is a deal that would make sense for both teams come July. Now, please get health Braun.....and stay healthy!

 

 

Nice proposal. However, the Dodgers will have all the leverage because it's pretty clear that they are the ONLY team realistically in play to make a trade for Braun before the deadline this year. With Bumgarner out, the Giants are fading fast and won't be making a move for Braun this year.

 

I think Walker Buehler is off the table as an option. When talks with the Twins for Dozier came up, Dodgers came out and said they valued Buehler more than Jose De Leon and Brock Stewart. Since then, Buehler has been pumping fastballs in the upper 90s and has looked unhittable in the minors.

 

A more realistic proposal may be something like this:

 

LA gets: OF Ryan Braun, ??? million

 

Mil gets: RHP Mitchell White (or RHP Brock Stewart) AND 2B/OF Willie Calhoun (or 3B Edwin Rios)

 

The amount of money the Brewers kick in would probably be determined by their "choice" of offered prospects.

 

 

Although most Brewer fans would be disappointed with the return, I think it's because they feel that Braun is still a franchise player in their minds and expect a equal "FANTASY TRADE" type return.

 

So this still begs the question: SHOULD a rebuilding team like the Brewers pull the trigger on a deal like this?

 

PROS:

- Brings in more depth of controllable, young talent.

- Frees up LF for Brewers to develop young OF prospects at MLB level.

- Invest money from contract savings back into future of the organization.

 

CONS:

- Trade away a Hall-of-Fame level talent that is still being productive when healthy.

- Lose long-time "Face of the Franchise"

- PR hit and Ticket sales hit

 

It's a interesting dilemma for the Franchise, but ultimately the ball is still in the Dodgers court or else Braun remains a Brewer and we keep hearing Braun trade rumors for years to come.

 

If he had the character of a Robin Yount, I'd say the Brewers should allow him to be a lifetime Brewer and mentor the youngsters coming up. The way Braun handled the whole PED thing, showed his true colors and makes me lean toward moving on from him if/when the opportunity even arises.

 

You are probably right, in that your trade proposal is probably much more realistic to what LA would be willing to offer for Braun. I guess I still think though that we really need potential impact pitching in any return for Braun. If Alvarez and Buehler are both off the table, do you think there is any chance we could get Sheffield and White from them? I'm not nearly as excited about this package as I was the Buehler/White combo, but I guess I'm just not crazy about Brock Stewart - and I just don't think we have a need for Calhoun at this stage. Or, would it be worth trying to get a White/Lux package in return - even though I'd much prefer to get a couple of high potential arms?

 

I agree too that it is a really tough spot right now with Braun, based on all of the issues that you outlined. I'm still fully supportive of Stearn's stance though in holding firm on getting good value back in a trade for him. Yes, we need to free up one of those OF spots here soon for our prospects, and yes we need to strike on a deal while Braun still has some value - but I just feel like he's still worth getting a couple of LA's top 10 prospects back in a deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

Stearns hangs up on that proposal.

 

The Dodgers need to go big when dealing for Braun. I dont care if Brauns contract is at value for the regular season. What bat do the Dodgers have who smashes LHP, and overall a .900 OPS game changer Game 1 of every playoff series they reach? This Franchise has spent over a billion w/o a WS to show for it. The idea to send 10, 15, 20million just not a bargaining chip honestly. LA would make that money with 1 World Series appearance. Nevermind if they get there another time. LA can waltz in to the playoffs with the Giants falter. They gotta decide if sitting with their roster will beat the other Playoff team or can a Bat of Brauns lead them through the Playoffs. The history is there he can. That is the biggest factor in Stearns valuation on Braun and asking for a high return. What are teams trading for? A to be a team to make the playoffs. Or B. Cubs acquiring Chapman to be a team to win the World Series. The Dodgers are B. They dont need help to make the postseason via trade. They need help strictly to get to the World Series.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Stearns hangs up on that proposal.

 

The Dodgers need to go big when dealing for Braun. I dont care if Brauns contract is at value for the regular season. What bat do the Dodgers have who smashes LHP, and overall a .900 OPS game changer Game 1 of every playoff series they reach? This Franchise has spent over a billion w/o a WS to show for it. The idea to send 10, 15, 20million just not a bargaining chip honestly. LA would make that money with 1 World Series appearance. Nevermind if they get there another time. LA can waltz in to the playoffs with the Giants falter. They gotta decide if sitting with their roster will beat the other Playoff team or can a Bat of Brauns lead them through the Playoffs. The history is there he can. That is the biggest factor in Stearns valuation on Braun and asking for a high return. What are teams trading for? A to be a team to make the playoffs. Or B. Cubs acquiring Chapman to be a team to win the World Series. The Dodgers are B. They dont need help to make the postseason via trade. They need help strictly to get to the World Series.

 

 

One problem with your argument is that Braun won't be the ONLY right handed OF bat on the trade market this July. The Dodgers could simply trade for someone like J.D. Martinez, as a one-year rental and decide NOT to invest in a long term risk-type situation like Braun and his contract.

 

Even someone like Andrew McCutchen is younger and on a shorter, cheaper contract than Braun. ($14M this year and $14.5M club option for next).

 

So once again, this further limits the Brewers leverage in any trade talks.

 

Sidenote: Does anybody still use a phone that they can empatically hang up? I'm sure Stearns could just text reply the Dodgers GM offer with a simple Poo Emoji and call it a day. http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2714370/images/o-POOP-EMOJI-ICE-CREAM-facebook.jpg

[Greenleaf1]

Just something else to think about.

 

I know we've spent a lot of time in this thread debating if Braun is worth his contract in terms of $/WAR, but is that really the best way to judge his value?

 

Let's say the Dodgers decided to spend the money they'd have to spend on Braun in order to get someone other than Braun to solve their problem. Is there a right handed outfielder available for Braun's salary that can give them what Braun can? It's not like players like that grow on trees, there's a relative scarcity when it comes to elite level players, and it gets even scarcer when you factor in that most teams don't want to let players like that go. Add in the factor that we could afford Braun through the length of his contract and don't need to get rid of him.

 

That, in my opinion, is why the Dodgers should trade for Braun, giving up premium prospects and paying most of his salary (minus whatever players they want to salary dump on us as part of the deal). The Dodgers are all out every year, and Braun gives them an amazing chance to enhance their lineup in a big way, especially in the postseason.

 

Sure, Bellinger is going to give them a huge boost in the outfield, but there's plenty of room in that outfield still for Braun, and having them both in their lineup in addition to the weapons they already possess would be huge for LA. Add in their pretty great pitching depth in the big leagues and the minors and they are in a great position to give us what we want (3 quality prospects headlined by Alvarez, probably).

 

Hoping the Dodgers come to their senses come midseason.

[FVBrewerFan]

And if I'm the Dodgers I see Braun babied in ST, then have at least two flare-ups with injuries (one of which has keep him out for over week.) And the season just started. I would be so nervous that something flares up at playoff time. That's what would scare me to death if I'm trading for Ryan Braun. It's not the money, he's worth it when healthy.

 

Now if he can come back and stay healthy until July or August, that's a different story. But his thumb and back are chronic, it's not like he's just going to "get better."

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Dodgers are still on the hook for 1B Adrian Gonzalez at $21,500,000 for this season and next.

 

That means they will need to play Bellinger in OF to get him regular abs. They have Yasiel Puig, RF and Joc Pederson, CF to man the other two OF spots, with Andrew Toles, Franklin Guitierez, Kike Hernandez for MLB depth.

 

You add in Willie Calhoun, Alex Verdugo, Trace Thompson and Brett Eibner at AAA and the Dodgers really aren't in the market to add OF. I think they stand pat in the OF and focus on other areas come July.

 

I think the only way they trade for Braun is if Puig is injured, completely terrible or his stupidity flairs up again.

[502 to Right]

LF Andrew Toles left tonight's Dodgers game with a leg injury.

 

For what it's worth...

[brwrsfan]

LF Andrew Toles left tonight's Dodgers game with a leg injury.

 

For what it's worth...

 

Getting an MRI today on his knee. There's some concern it's ACL related. That would be a serious injury of course...