What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[adambr2]

Don't like the way the author painted the brewers stance that we are looking for salary relief. That isn't true. That is a writer from a big city assuming a small market is always looking to shed payroll.

 

Stearns is right to at least initially take the stance that Braun (as is) is worth good prospects in return. It is the other teams stance that the Brewers should carry some of the salary burden to get those prospects. That is the negotiation that will occur.

 

Painting it as if the Brewers are looking to shed salary gives the impression that Stearns will take little in return for getting out of his contract. That is not where the Brewers are with Braun. There is no sense to trade him unless there is a good return.

 

I looked over the original write up in the Mercury and didn't find that offensive. It just literally says we're looking for salary relief in exchange for some pretty good players, which of course we are. We aren't looking to pay Braun to play somewhere else. But it doesn't mean we need it, but definitely we're looking for that.

 

Of course maybe you just are meaning it should have been worded differently..like 'The Brewers are looking for some pretty good prospects for Braun and aren't interested in eating much of his contract to do so.'

[Jose Cardenal1]

But we are not looking for salary relief. That has nothing to do with why we may trade him. That is what I don't like.

 

I think the writer should have written it to say that the Brewers were looking for significant prospects in return for Braun and that they don't believe it would require them to eat salary to do so. That is an accurate portrayal of the Brewers stance at this point.

[MrTPlush]

But we are not looking for salary relief. That has nothing to do with why we may trade him. That is what I don't like.

 

It does. Opening an OF spot, getting prospects, and freeing up all that salary are the three variables to the equation. Salary relief just makes you think of a team in dire need of that payroll space and usually trying to trade someone not exactly living up to the money being paid to them. It isn't the best wording for that reason, but it isn't wrong.

[Outlander]

I guess I agree with Cardenal1 here. I don't really think they are looking for salary relief at all. They want good prospects and will consider trading Braun because he is aging and not likely part of the next playoff team. If good prospects are not involved the trade is not happening because salary is not a concern. Even three years from now I don't see $18 million impacting too many decisions that they make no matter how well/poor he is playing.

[adambr2]

Arguing semantics and definitions here, but clearing Braun's salary or most of it is certainly a big potential benefit to dealing him. Just because we don't NEED to doesn't mean we don't benefit from cutting our payroll by basically a third.

 

To put it in different terms obviously a deal in which we get 2 good prospects and eat none of Braun's salary is a much better deal than the same prospects but eating half his salary.

 

I think that's all the reporter was saying. Could have been worded better I guess but 'Salary relief' In this case just means we aren't looking to pay Braun to play elsewhere.

[wildcat2237]

I cant see a Braun deal that doesn't involve both Beede and Arroyo.

 

However, Arroyo has been called up to the big leagues and hit his first MLB home run the other night. I just don't see the Giants trying to compete yet trading him away. Makes no sense.

 

I am highly doubtful a deal with the Giants gets done.

 

IMHO if a Braun trade happens it will be the Rangers or the Astros. They both need him and have the prospects to make it happen.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd be thrilled with getting Arroyo, but I think the Giants are close to done for the season. We'll see but the Rockies are much improved, Dodgers are tough, and Bumgarner is seriously hurt. I just don't see it.... maybe if the trade for Braun now with hopes for 2018? Just not seeing it

[HighHeat19]

Well, the Dodgers have a bit of a overload at pitcher with Hill coming back. With Urias they are at 7 starters. If Urias get's sent down then they are still at 6 with Wood possibly to the pen. Long story short, this maybe a little incentive to trade Brandon McCarthy in a package again to offset salary. Also, McCarthy did not pitch so well against the lackluster Phillies tonight.

 

Nats, also lose Eaton for the year and are looking at Herrera from the Royals. A package that includes Braun and Feliz I could see in the works. Similar to Lucroy and Jeffress last year. The Nat's in 2015 were on Braun's OK'd list.

 

I also wouldn't count out the Astro's or Rangers as mentioned earlier.

[MrTPlush]

Nationals make almost no sense. They aren't going to put Harper in CF full time and surely not Jason Werth. There is also little chance you are convincing Braun to go play on the east coast at this point. He wants to play back home or be a Brewer. Anything farther east and you are going to have some issues.

[pacopete4]

I wish Broxton was hitting. He might've made a lot of sense for them.

[Boomer5]

How much money would we have to eat to bring back these top prospects? Seems like at least half his deal based on the Tulo trade.

[LouisEly]

But we are not looking for salary relief. That has nothing to do with why we may trade him. That is what I don't like.

 

I think the writer should have written it to say that the Brewers were looking for significant prospects in return for Braun and that they don't believe it would require them to eat salary to do so. That is an accurate portrayal of the Brewers stance at this point.

"Salary relief" is the default action with trades - the contract goes with the player.

 

The team that the player is going to is getting "salary relief" by the previous team picking up part of the contract.

[paul253]

From MLB trade rumors:

 

Ryan Braun left after six innings of today’s 4-3 Brewers win over the Braves due to what the star outfielder called “wear and tear” in his right arm, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters. “It can get irritated swinging, throwing and then obviously you’re playing through it and it continues at times to gradually get worse, and I think that’s kind of what happens,” Braun said. While he believes he can avoid a 10-day DL stint, Braun did think he would be sidelined for the next couple of games. Though Braun vaguely alluded to more than one issue with his arm, the Brewers officially announced the injury as tightness in his right trapezius. Here’s more from around the baseball world

 

To me this furthers the argument about how much of an advantage AL teams have by being able to use a DH. Braun would most likely be our DH right now, or at least able to DH every so often to rest his arm. Instead he's forced to sit out a few days due to injury, which probably gives teams pause about trading for him, especially NL teams like the Dodgers. This DH rule is so stupid now. I don't care what direction they do but they need to make it a uniform rule.

[Boomer5]

He's getting older, he is expensive (factoring in the length of the deal), and he is injury prone. Throw in his no trade restrictions and you know he isn't a significant trade chip anymore.

 

These big name prospect returns aren't realistic.

[JosephC]

This doesn't have anything to do with Braun right now because being hurt and on the bench doesn't help trade value. But I have to wonder if the Dodgers will end up looking to move Puig at sometime between now and the end of July. Puig is on a 10/59 slide with only 1 extra-base hit (a home run) over that stretch (15 games that he's played in). He's still slashing a respectable .235/.316/.412/.728 but that still has to be somewhat disappointing for the Dodgers considering the great start he had. Since they have been willing to move him in the past, one just has to wonder if they will finally lose their patience with him and trade him.

[OnTheBlack]

He's getting older, he is expensive (factoring in the length of the deal), and he is injury prone. Throw in his no trade restrictions and you know he isn't a significant trade chip anymore.

 

These big name prospect returns aren't realistic.

 

 

I don't agree with that at all(other than the fact that he's getting older...I'm still looking for a guy who can hit 30 HR's who's getting younger). Braun misses 15-20 games or so a year and produces every year. He's "injury prone" so to speak, yet he plays through that and puts up very good numbers. He'd have been the best offensive player on either LA or SF last year. There aren't a lot of .900 OPS guys available in season and while he's certainly not cheap, it's not like he's Vernon Wells. 4 years and what..76 million dollars really isn't that much for a contender. Not when a guy like Carlos Beltran is still getting 16 million a year at 40 years old.

[JosephC]

Braun just had 1 pinch-hit appearance in the last 8 days (6 games) with what he describes as "slight strain of my flexor muscles." That's not good news if you are a Brewer fan that wants to see Braun traded.

[Boomer5]

He's getting older, he is expensive (factoring in the length of the deal), and he is injury prone. Throw in his no trade restrictions and you know he isn't a significant trade chip anymore.

 

These big name prospect returns aren't realistic.

 

 

I don't agree with that at all(other than the fact that he's getting older...I'm still looking for a guy who can hit 30 HR's who's getting younger). Braun misses 15-20 games or so a year and produces every year. He's "injury prone" so to speak, yet he plays through that and puts up very good numbers. He'd have been the best offensive player on either LA or SF last year. There aren't a lot of .900 OPS guys available in season and while he's certainly not cheap, it's not like he's Vernon Wells. 4 years and what..76 million dollars really isn't that much for a contender. Not when a guy like Carlos Beltran is still getting 16 million a year at 40 years old.

 

He is basically a 2 WAR player these days. Fangraphs projects him at 1.6. So at about $7m per WAR, Braun doesn't produce to his contract. Not even close. That's assuming he will be an elite offensive player by his 4th year, which is unlikely.

 

Therefore any GM will view him as expensive and will not be giving us a prime prospect.

[pacopete4]

 

He is basically a 2 WAR player these days. Fangraphs projects him at 1.6. So at about $7m per WAR, Braun doesn't produce to his contract. Not even close. That's assuming he will be an elite offensive player by his 4th year, which is unlikely.

 

Therefore any GM will view him as expensive and will not be giving us a prime prospect.

 

He was a 4.5 WAR player a year ago and has smoked the ball this season again. If he stays relatively healthy, he'll be about a 4-WAR player or so.

[adambr2]

There was a pretty big disparity between Baseball Reference last year which had him at 4.5, and Fangraphs which had him at 3.2. Still a valuable player either way but a big difference. This year it's the opposite, Fangraphs has him at 0.5 so far and Baseball Reference just 0.2.

 

At his age and with his frequent injury issues, if he can be a 3 WAR player this year and average 2.5 for the rest of his contract I'll be very happy with that.

[And That]

I like to take the WAR average of BR, FG, and BP. Like you said, 4.5 bWAR, 3.2 fWAR. 4.3 WARP, so average is exactly 4 WAR for Braun's 2016 season.

[pacopete4]

I like to take the WAR average of BR, FG, and BP. Like you said, 4.5 bWAR, 3.2 fWAR. 4.3 WARP, so average is exactly 4 WAR for Braun's 2016 season.

 

 

So with a 4-WAR at $7mil per WAR, he is worth $28mil. Fun stuff.

[And That]

So with a 4-WAR at $7mil per WAR, he is worth $28mil. Fun stuff.

1.0 WAR is worth closer to $8 million.

 

Braun would have to produce about 9 WAR between '17-'20 to justify his contract, based on the WAR measurement. I'd probably take the over on 9, but how much excess value other teams would assign his contract is a little dubious. That said, teams wouldn't be trading for 2020 Ryan Braun, they'd be trading for 2017-2018 Ryan Braun.

[MrTPlush]

Is he undercontract in 2020? Then they are trading for 2020 Braun. If teams didn't care about the later years why have there been reports of teams not liking the length of the contract. That has been one of the bigger hurdles(via rumor).

[And That]

Is he undercontract in 2020? Then they are trading for 2020 Braun.

No, they aren't, unless they think he's still going to be as productive in 2020. They are, more likely than not, trading for Braun's production over the next year or two and are fully aware he probably won't be the same player in 2020.

 

Who should pay for 2020 Braun may well be why he hasn't been traded. That part can be negotiated. But production 4 years down the line is not what teams are trading for. So in a way it doesn't really matter what his WAR will be 2020.