What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[billymac]

I just don't see the Dodgers making a move for Braun before July. They dragged out the Dozier saga for months only to look elsewhere. They gave up quite a haul at the trade deadline last year for Hill and Reddick by giving up Holmes, Cotton and Montas so we know they are willing to deal some top prospects at the deadline. I know most teams wait until June/July for trades, but I think Stearns firm price will make this go until the trade deadline when multiple teams could be involved. So just like Lucroy last year, hope that Braun stays healthy and keeps hitting and the situation will take care of itself in July, Stearns got his requested haul right at the deadline. The Dodgers have a hole in LF and against LHP, it only makes sense if you are going to trade for him, to do it now and gain that 2-3 month advantage. Brewers have salary room to take enough back to make it worthwhile. They will be in win now mode the next 4 years, so why not try and take advantage. If the Dodgers don't want to meet our price, so be it, I hope he goes to a division foe and haunts them for 4 years.

 

The Giants have a real need at this point and have a couple year window with Cueto and Bum. It would be nice if somehow a 3rd team could get involved where Braun goes to SF, Beede comes to Milwaukee and we get another top prospect somewhere else. Screw the Dodgers.

[SandyTolan]

I just don't see the Dodgers making a move for Braun before July. They dragged out the Dozier saga for months only to look elsewhere. They gave up quite a haul at the trade deadline last year for Hill and Reddick by giving up Holmes, Cotton and Montas so we know they are willing to deal some top prospects at the deadline. I know most teams wait until June/July for trades, but I think Stearns firm price will make this go until the trade deadline when multiple teams could be involved. So just like Lucroy last year, hope that Braun stays healthy and keeps hitting and the situation will take care of itself in July, Stearns got his requested haul right at the deadline. The Dodgers have a hole in LF and against LHP, it only makes sense if you are going to trade for him, to do it now and gain that 2-3 month advantage. Brewers have salary room to take enough back to make it worthwhile. They will be in win now mode the next 4 years, so why not try and take advantage. If the Dodgers don't want to meet our price, so be it, I hope he goes to a division foe and haunts them for 4 years.

 

The Giants have a real need at this point and have a couple year window with Cueto and Bum. It would be nice if somehow a 3rd team could get involved where Braun goes to SF, Beede comes to Milwaukee and we get another top prospect somewhere else. Screw the Dodgers.

 

 

The only thing is, the Thames/Braun combo is looking pretty unbeatable right about now, and if the Brewers are still within spitting distance of first place or even a WC slot on May 24, Stearns would probably have to be absolutely bowled over to deal one of the linchpins of a still-contending team. In late July the situation could be quite different, so I agree at this point that is more likely.

[pacopete4]

Having the Brewers in contention could help or hurt this situation. One one hand, if they are in 1st or close to it, they might get even better offers to try to pry away Braun or Thames. On the other hand, if we are in that position, we will see whether or not Stearns/MA will be tempted to make the playoffs or not by holding onto those players and possibly adding a piece or two.

[SandyTolan]

Another interesting possibility: If the Crew is somehow still in contention at the trade deadline, then rather than dealing Braun, Peralta, Guerra, etc., they could wait until the offseason, knowing they can stock the team from the farm (Brinson, Hader, Woodruff). Or if they look out of it on August 31 perhaps they could swing a stretch-drive waiver deal or two.

[HighHeat19]

Having the Brewers in contention could help or hurt this situation. One one hand, if they are in 1st or close to it, they might get even better offers to try to pry away Braun or Thames. On the other hand, if we are in that position, we will see whether or not Stearns/MA will be tempted to make the playoffs or not by holding onto those players and possibly adding a piece or two.

 

This is a very good point. Essentially if we are in 1st place, a team could up their chances and destroy ours by simply trading for Braun or Thames.

 

Although, the Brewer Brass could be crucified for such a move if the Brewers are in first place come July 31st.

[NievesNoNO]

I've seen it mentioned a few times now, but I can't envision a scenario where the Brewers are trading Braun after the May deadline. By almost all accounts he doesn't want to leave. To me, it's now or never.

 

I still don't see the need for the Dodgers but if they were truly interested, I think Buehler is a fair deal. He won't really be ready to pitch a meaningful amount of innings at MLB for another 2 years, if he even progresses that far. Quite frankly, with the Dodgers pocket book and their already fairly deep farm system, giving up Buehler is really a drop in the bucket for them. I get not parting with Bellinger or Alvarez, but parting with somebody with an injury history who is at least a couple years away from being able to contribute for a team that is wanting to win now shouldn't be a big deal.

[Eye Black]

I didn't see it mentioned here yet, but Ken Rosenthal reported in his article today (LINK) that Braun's 10 and 5 status goes into effect May 14, not May 24 as previously reported.

[JosephC]

If the Brewers are in first place on July 31st, then the rebuild ended sooner than most observers anticipated. No way the team should sell anybody if the major leaguers are doing that well (and how well the minor league system is already stocked).

[HighHeat19]

If the Brewers are in first place on July 31st, then the rebuild ended sooner than most observers anticipated. No way the team should sell anybody if the major leaguers are doing that well (and how well the minor league system is already stocked).

 

Then we better see at least Woodruff up here and possibly Hader as well.

[FVBrewerFan]

If the Brewers are in first place on July 31st, then the rebuild ended sooner than most observers anticipated. No way the team should sell anybody if the major leaguers are doing that well (and how well the minor league system is already stocked).

 

That would be a mistake. Same mistake they made in 2015, believing team was better than it was. Even if they're in 1st July 31st, stay the course. In no way does it mean rebuild ended.

[brewcrewdue80]

With Thames start, at this point if the Dodgers were going to pry Braun from me, would require Julio Urias+. Sorry Dodgers, our team is looking better than yours

[adambr2]

Better than the Dodgers? In 1st on July 31st?

 

Holy cow we are getting way carried away about an 8-7 start. We still have a very young team that will have peaks and valleys, and as much as I hate them, we play in the same division as the defending champs who are still loaded and will probably run away with the division.

 

We have 147 out of 162 games remaining. In NFL terms we are at the 2 minute warning of the opening game of the year. This last week has been fun, and I'm one of those who thinks this team could surprise some this year, but we have probably less than a 1% chance of finishing ahead of the Cubs or Dodgers this year.

[MrTPlush]

With Thames start, at this point if the Dodgers were going to pry Braun from me, would require Julio Urias+. Sorry Dodgers, our team is looking better than yours

 

Come on now let's be serious. Our bullpen is not good, the offense is not as good as something, and the starters have mostly played over their head. No thanks.

[adambr2]

Right now it feels like Thames and Braun are going to finish 1 and 2 in MVP voting, Wily Peralta will win Cy Young and Broxton and Villar will be DFA by July. But none of that is likely.

[adambr2]

With Thames start, at this point if the Dodgers were going to pry Braun from me, would require Julio Urias+. Sorry Dodgers, our team is looking better than yours

 

Come on now let's be serious. Our bullpen is not good, the offense is not as good as something, and the starters have mostly played over their head. No thanks.

 

Not to mention a demand for Urias+ for Braun would probably be the last time that the Dodgers took a phone call from Stearns.

[brewcrewdue80]

When giving way too much thought to money and age over production.

 

Braun sits 12th in OPS currently for MLB. HRs 6th. SBs 8th. But you know, I'm beating a dead horse. Hey we gotta have 550k batters who may as a ceiling, bat .810-.925OPS. 2 or 6 years from now. meanwhile there's this guy who's producing .900 OPS with regularity like 10years worth of a career who will just fall off a cliff due to history for his age.

 

How's Yoenis Cespedes doing? What could the Mets get if trading him? Nevermind the 7mil+per year it costs for his production, he's worth more by fans just because of PEDs. Braun has his ties, Cespedes doesn't. He's 31, Braun at 33 pffft! What's that? Yoenis has never completed a season with above .900 OPS? Braun's above Career Average? I suppose at 31 he can reach that, while Braun at 33 will decline from that.

 

So while Braun will earn 17mil in 3years, Cespedes earning 29mil. Yeah makes sense. That 550k rookie/ 6year team control is worth more than Braun.

 

Carlos Beltran was traded for Zach Wheeler at 34 with .904OPS, oh and a guy named Dillon Tate at age 39 with .894OPS. 19/15mil last year of contract value.

 

At what point do you have to see his production continuing at a grade A level amongst all of Baseball to understand he's worth his pay and then some vs. a prospect you dream will be an A level ML player?

[adambr2]

When giving way too much thought to money and age over production.

 

Braun sits 12th in OPS currently for MLB. HRs 6th. SBs 8th. But you know, I'm beating a dead horse. Hey we gotta have 550k batters who may as a ceiling, bat .810-.925OPS. 2 or 6 years from now. meanwhile there's this guy who's producing .900 OPS with regularity like 10years worth of a career who will just fall off a cliff due to history for his age.

 

How's Yoenis Cespedes doing? What could the Mets get if trading him? Nevermind the 7mil+per year it costs for his production, he's worth more by fans just because of PEDs. Braun has his ties, Cespedes doesn't. He's 31, Braun at 33 pffft! What's that? Yoenis has never completed a season with above .900 OPS? Braun's above Career Average? I suppose at 31 he can reach that, while Braun at 33 will decline from that.

 

So while Braun will earn 17mil in 3years, Cespedes earning 29mil. Yeah makes sense. That 550k rookie/ 6year team control is worth more than Braun.

 

Carlos Beltran was traded for Zach Wheeler at 34 with .904OPS, oh and a guy named Dillon Tate at age 39 with .894OPS. 19/15mil last year of contract value.

 

At what point do you have to see his production continuing at a grade A level amongst all of Baseball to understand he's worth his pay and then some vs. a prospect you dream will be an A level ML player?

 

1 - Cespedes has 6 HR and a 1.038 OPS so he's doing pretty good.

2 - Braun has OPS'ed over .900 once in the last 4 seasons coming into this year, so while he's been good, saying he produces .900 OPS with regularity is inaccurate.

3 - Citing season stats 15 games into a season to determine trade value is still silly.

4 - Beltran was a rental when he was traded in 2011 for Wheeler, with no future commitment, not 4 years and $76M worth of commitment. Apples and oranges.

5 - Dillon Tate was available for Beltran last year because he plummeted on every prospect list around and was basically a reclamation project prospect.

6 - You can beat the dead horse all you want but it remains obvious that if Braun was worth a Urias or Bellinger, he would have started 2017 as a Dodger.

 

Value is market driven. It does not matter how awesome we think Braun is. Stearns can send out a Braun career highlight reel to every GM and a PowerPoint presentation on the failure of top prospects and a list of every player making more than Braun and producing less. It still doesn't matter. Braun's trade value is whatever the top offer is that a team he is willing to go to will give us for him. It is not whatever we think it ought to be because he can mash.

 

I am certainly not advocating giving Braun away just to trade him, and I'm completely understanding of keeping him if we don't get an offer that we feel is at least in the ballpark of fair value. But value is driven by so many other factors other than just 'is the guy a good hitter. ' I've already mentioned the contract and age, but the no-trade clause is another big one. There's a very small handful of teams that Braun is willing to be traded to, and of those teams, there's even less that are in a situation where they're motivated to even make such a deal. All in all, you probably have 2 teams, the Dodgers and Giants, that are even part of the discussion. It's a completely incomparable situation to shopping a younger guy in the off-season who has no trade barriers and a much larger potential marker, like Thornburg or Segura.

 

You don't want to sell Braun short of course, but you also have to be realistic in your expectations if you're serious about getting a deal done. We're not sitting in a position of enough leverage to be able to demand a guy like Urias, and the Dodgers are just as much aware of that fact as we are.

[tmwiese55]

67 pages of this and it's still at the same point. If another team expects to just give him away for blah prospects and/or take a bunch of salary back, then just keep him. We can afford him and he's still great to watch. If someone makes a you a legit deal with good prospects, sure do it as it's best for the future. So far it still seems teams expect us to give him away like he's an albatross contract or something, just keep him then.

[Boomer5]

Aren't we less than the Padres payroll when factoring in players not on the team?

 

At this point we might as well hold on to Braun until someone gets desperate because we can afford his contract.

[adambr2]

Aren't we less than the Padres payroll when factoring in players not on the team?

 

At this point we might as well hold on to Braun until someone gets desperate because we can afford his contract.

 

I strongly disagree with the mentality of keeping a guy just because we can afford him. I'm not arguing that we should trade him, but we need more of a reason to keep a guy beyond just being financially able to.

[brewmann04]

If Braun is traded then we should be getting a top pitcher in return. I would like to believe that we will be contenders come the deadline just don't believe that will be the case

[Boomer5]

Aren't we less than the Padres payroll when factoring in players not on the team?

 

At this point we might as well hold on to Braun until someone gets desperate because we can afford his contract.

 

I strongly disagree with the mentality of keeping a guy just because we can afford him. I'm not arguing that we should trade him, but we need more of a reason to keep a guy beyond just being financially able to.

 

My comment isn't exclusively based on that we can afford him. Rather it's based that any Braun trade will mean we either send a lot of money or take a bad contract in return.

 

If it's a straight trade that's fine, but I doubt one is available. We don't need a 33 year old OF who needs to sit out regularly. But we don't need to dump him, either.

[Boomer5]

If Braun is traded then we should be getting a top pitcher in return. I would like to believe that we will be contenders come the deadline just don't believe that will be the case

 

We aren't getting a TOR prospect back unless we essentially absorb all of Brauns contract, and even that I'm not sure.

[HighHeat19]

The Brewers have to get another team involved for Braun. I don't see the Giants making a move for him. However, David Peralta has not been the hottest for Arizona and is also a Lefty. Arizona's prospects are not too bad either. Are they the Dodger prospects??? No, but Arizona is not afraid to pull the trigger on trades. Pair Braun up with Feliz or Nelson and you could get a very nice package back from Arizona.

 

Taylor Clarke, Brad Keller, Jon Duplantier, and Jared Miller look to be excellent choices.

[billymac]

The Brewers have to get another team involved for Braun. I don't see the Giants making a move for him. However, David Peralta has not been the hottest for Arizona and is also a Lefty. Arizona's prospects are not too bad either. Are they the Dodger prospects??? No, but Arizona is not afraid to pull the trigger on trades. Pair Braun up with Feliz or Nelson and you could get a very nice package back from Arizona.

 

Taylor Clarke, Brad Keller, Jon Duplantier, and Jared Miller look to be excellent choices.

 

I wouldn't give up Jimmy Nelson for that package let alone add Braun to it. Stearns got 2 top 10 organizational prospects for Lucroy, I don't see him settling for less with Braun, granted we will need to take a bad contract back or two to offset his contract. Arizona doesn't have the prospects it would take to get Braun.

 

Peralta had 3.7 WAR in 2015 and was hurt most of last year, I doubt they view him as a hole on their team.