What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[JDBrewCrew]

Bernie Pleskoff‏Verified account @BerniePleskoff 40s41 seconds ago

Buzz about #Brewers trading Ryan Braun to the #Dodgers is heating up again.

[Brew Kricket]

What if say Ray tops out as a .260/.325/.425 hitter but provides 60-65 grade defense in left field? That's likely as valuable if not more valuable than Braun in the next few years at a league minimum salary for 3 plus whatever we get in return for Braun.

 

Impact of defense in LF is minimal and provides very little overall value. See Kyle Schwarber.

 

 

I do not understand this post at all. Kyle Schwarber has played 50 games in the OF in his entire career, including 2 last year and 9 this year. Your point is that there is a team (perhaps the best defensive team in baseball in '16) that has decided to put a power hitting/poor fielding LF into the everyday lineup, so LF defense has little value? If Schwarber had done this for 8 years and was getting 30 million a year despite his defense, that would make more sense.

 

A more accurate statement would be, impact of LF defense is low on the defensive spectrum but can still provide overall value. See prime Carl Crawford, who signed one of the largest contracts for a non-power hitter in baseball history at the time. He was a good hittiing/elite fielding LF. Value is value anyway you can find it.

 

Side note: The fact that Crawford was awful in Boston does not mean the Tampa version of him did not bring immense value as a defensive LF, which is why het got paid.

[chuckiehacks]

What I find interesting is the fact neither Santana nor Braun made any attempt to move to first base coming into the season.

 

How could you possibly know what "attempts" either player made in the off-season. For all we know, they could have offered and worked out all winter with a 1B glove, but Stearns told them to stay in the OF once Thames was signed.

[JDBrewCrew]

Bernie Pleskoff‏Verified account @BerniePleskoff 16m16 minutes ago

 

Braun would be a tremendous asset for the #Dodgers. But the #Brewers have to get pitching prospect(s) in return.

[JDBrewCrew]

James Anderson‏ @RealJRAnderson 2m2 minutes ago

They have a few pretty good ones. Guessing Stearns is asking for Alvarez, but they might have to meet in middle w/ Buehler++ or White+++.

[Brew Kricket]

I guess I would interpret this data not so much as "will a 32yo player decline" - it is highly likely that the player will - but will the player decline too much?

 

Extreme back of the envelope math tells me that Braun would have to produce about 8 WAR between '17-'20 to justify the remainder of his deal. Yes, the production is likely to be front loaded, but if he eclipses 8 WAR all you're doing is saving on the first bit of good production and eating the last bit of bad production. Assuming there is inflation, this is not a bad move. There is also the fact that he has a significant chunk of deferred compensation. This also works in the team's favor.

 

Given the players on that chart, using WAR provided, this is how much they produced in their 33-36yo seasons:

 

• Walker: 19.9
  Berkman: 8.9
  Holiday: 6.8
  Lee: 3.3
  Mondesi: -0.5
  Bagwell: 17.3
  Guerrero: 5.2
  Edmonds: 19.2
  Giles: 13.2
  Alou: 6.8

 

5 of the 10 cleared the 8 WAR hurdle, most of them pretty easily. Holiday and Alou were pretty close. And I'm not sure Mondesi is a great comp because he was toast physically by that point. The contracts he got from the Pirates and Braves in the '04 and '05 seasons gets to that point.

 

Given that extremely small sample size of information, it appears to me that Braun is a little more likely than not to be worth the remainder of his contract. That does not mean he won't decline. It just means that the level of his decline will be acceptable. Which is what Braun's suitors are attempting to determine, and what the Brewers are attempting to value.

 

 

Excellent post. In a vacuum, I agree with you that given average decline, Braun's contract still seems to feel like close to market value.

This would mean he is overpaid for the Brewers, given the '17/'18 production is significantly less valuable to them than the '19/'20 production. It would also point to a contending team seeing present value/accepting the risk on the back if Braun has a 14 month window of healthy, productive baseball. I would feel so much better about a deal if we had 2 AL teams as the most interested clubs, as opposed to SF and LA.

[MrTPlush]

Bernie Pleskoff‏Verified account

@BerniePleskoff

 

Braun would be a tremendous asset for the #Dodgers. But the #Brewers have to get pitching prospect(s) in return.

[MrTPlush]

I would be a happy man if we got Alvarez. Buehler wouldn't be a bad get either.

[And That]

I'd be more than happy with Buehler plus a few nuggets, preferably a LHP and a middle infielder.

[reillymcshane]

I'd be more than happy with Buehler plus a few nuggets, preferably a LHP and a middle infielder.

I've said Buehler was the guy to target since last summer. Supposedly the Dodgers really love him - so I doubt it happens.

[reillymcshane]

 

Impact of defense in LF is minimal and provides very little overall value. See Kyle Schwarber.

http://deadspin.com/matt-adams-defeated-by-fly-ball-1794087534

 

Video is priceless.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'd be more than happy with Buehler plus a few nuggets, preferably a LHP and a middle infielder.

I've said Buehler was the guy to target since last summer. Supposedly the Dodgers really love him - so I doubt it happens.

 

They may love him, but fact is thee is risk there too. As good as he is, he's in the low minors and that comes with more risk and more waiting time for the Brewers. Same with Alvarez. They have enough pitching talent that they can afford to give up one of them for Braun. You know a trade is fair when it hurts some for both sides, and the Brewers need one of those two in return plus a lottery or two. That's the price.

 

Good news is, they have been talking about this for so long now, seems inevitable it gets done eventually. Not a lock, but I feel way better than most of the off-season that this will get done.

[molitor fan]

Bernie is very very solid source... I watched the Cub game with Dodger feed yesterday and their announcers said there body language was brutal and it looked like their hitting slump as a team had gotten into team's head.....I could see a move happening, as parameters were in place already and timing just needed to be right.....i want a Beuhler/White combo to happen

 

White is not as well known but has destroyed his competition in limited exposure so far....Trayce Thompson another piece that could come in a package

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I would be a happy man if we got Alvarez. Buehler wouldn't be a bad get either.

You and me both! I'm incredibly high on Yadier, but just don't see it as realistic. Things change though... desperate times calls for desperate measures especially in what looks to be a competitive N.L. West. I'd also like a look at Lux as a possible lottery ticket if the high end talent isn't available.

[TURBO]

I understand it's part of baseball, but when Braun gets traded, and I think that is going to happen after all, it is going to be a very sad day in WI sports history... I'll be bummed out.

[wildcat2237]

I understand it's part of baseball, but when Braun gets traded, and I think that is going to happen after all, it is going to be a very sad day in WI sports history... I'll be bummed out.

 

I can see how you feel that way.

 

However, for me, it will be a relief as it will finally signal the end of the Melvin era.

 

Braun cheated and quickly signed a fat contract. Then he got caught and lied to cover his arse. Then he got caught again.

 

Braun did some good things for this franchise but I will be ecstatic to get rid the contract and hopefully bring back a few high level prospects.

[brewerfan82]

I understand it's part of baseball, but when Braun gets traded, and I think that is going to happen after all, it is going to be a very sad day in WI sports history... I'll be bummed out.

 

I can see how you feel that way.

 

However, for me, it will be a relief as it will finally signal the end of the Melvin era.

That darn Melvin-era. With his darn teams built with the likes of Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Lucroy, Gomez, Sabathia, Greinke, Sheets, Gallardo, and two playoff appearances after 14 consecutive non-winning seasons and 25 years of never making the post-season.

 

I get what you're saying, but growing up with those 90's Brewer teams, it's very difficult for me to not be grateful for what he did here.

[3and2Fastball]

That darn Melvin-era. With his darn teams built with the likes of Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Lucroy, Gomez, Sabathia, Greinke, Sheets, Gallardo, and two playoff appearances after 14 consecutive non-winning seasons and 25 years of never making the post-season.

.

 

Or, another way to look at it is only Doug Melvin could have that much talent mostly just handed to him and screw up so badly as to only have 2 playoff appearances. The Greinke trade was horrible for the Brewers, hindsight being 20/20. Greinke was barely above average during his time in Milwaukee and we gave the Royals the nucleus of their WS teams.

 

Most of those home grown Brewers were draft picks given to Melvin, right? Did he make the final selections? Melvin was the only GM stupid enough to think Yuni B could be a starting SS on a contending team....etc etc I could go on & on

[MrTPlush]

Seriously people we are going to start arguing about Doug Melvin? Who cares those days are long gone why does it matter? The only thing more annoying is talking about the specifics of Braun's PED situation and how he tossed some dude under a bus. Let's move onto something better to talk about.

[MrTPlush]

What I find interesting is the fact neither Santana nor Braun made any attempt to move to first base coming into the season.

 

How could you possibly know what "attempts" either player made in the off-season. For all we know, they could have offered and worked out all winter with a 1B glove, but Stearns told them to stay in the OF once Thames was signed.

 

It doesn't matter if they tried or wanted to. It is the fact the Brewers didn't try it and they signed Thames to block them. Everything Stearns has done to this point and what he values screams a Braun trade sooner rather than later. Though with Braun easier said than done with all the different moving parts.

[Eye Black]

I would be a happy man if we got Alvarez. Buehler wouldn't be a bad get either.

You and me both! I'm incredibly high on Yadier, but just don't see it as realistic. Things change though... desperate times calls for desperate measures especially in what looks to be a competitive N.L. West. I'd also like a look at Lux as a possible lottery ticket if the high end talent isn't available.

I would be ecstatic to see Gavin Lux included in a Braun deal, but I wouldn't classify his current trade value as a "lottery ticket" type piece. Lux was the 20th overall pick in last year's draft, signed for over $2.3 million, had a very good professional debut, and appears to have tremendous bat speed. While still very young, he would come with high expectations. I typically think of a lottery ticket as either a generally unknown/unheralded younger player (i.e. Freddy Peralta) or a player with one or more impact tools that has toiled through an organization for various reasons such as injury, control issues, contact issues, etc. (i.e. Josh Pennington).

[JosephC]

The Dodgers just don't seem to make that much sense anymore. Yasiel Puig and Andrew Toles are both off to great starts. Braun is an everyday player, I don't think it makes much sense for the Dodgers to acquire him and push Toles to the bench. While the normal backup Dodgers outfielders aren't hitting, jack-of-all-trade Enrique Hernandez is and can fill in at the corner outfield positions when needed. If the Dodgers still do want Braun, IMO they would only be willing to acquire him for a bargain price. I can only think of two reasons why the Dodgers would still be interested in Braun at this point. First is they fear another Puig meltdown. But what's even more likely, they are now desperate to find somebody to take Scott Kazmir's contract off their hands.

[3and2Fastball]

Lux is interesting in part because he is a Wisconsin kid. Not a sure thing to stick at SS but likely. Questions as to whether he'll develop power. He's also currently injured, though it appears to be relatively minor (rib injury).

[HighHeat19]

The Dodgers just don't seem to make that much sense anymore. Yasiel Puig and Andrew Toles are both off to great starts. Braun is an everyday player, I don't think it makes much sense for the Dodgers to acquire him and push Toles to the bench. While the normal backup Dodgers outfielders aren't hitting, jack-of-all-trade Enrique Hernandez is and can fill in at the corner outfield positions when needed. If the Dodgers still do want Braun, IMO they would only be willing to acquire him for a bargain price. I can only think of two reasons why the Dodgers would still be interested in Braun at this point. First is they fear another Puig meltdown. But what's even more likely, they are now desperate to find somebody to take Scott Kazmir's contract off their hands.

 

I disagree. Toles is currently not hitting that well and is a lefty bat (which the Dodgers have plenty of). He provides very little in the way of power or even stolen bases. What the Dodger's have been lacking is someone that can hit LH pitching. Their really is none better than Braun, who annihilates lefty's. He did it last year and is doing it again this year. Toles would make a great 4th outfielder as well as a great PH in the national league especially come playoff time.

[MrTPlush]

The Dodgers want to hit better against lefties badly and that is why they keep coming back to Braun. Honestly I think both want a deal to happen, but neither wants to be the first to blink.