What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[Lathund]

I'm on the fence when it comes to trading Braun. I think he'll still be a productive player over the remainder of his contract, and we're in a rebuild where we won't need to accomodate any (or at least not many) free agent extensions during that time. So we can afford it. And we're not exactly blessed with veterans in the club house, so makes sense keeping him from that standpoint as well.

 

On the other hand, we're not going to be competitive this year or next. World Series-level competitive is even further along. Is Braun really going to be contributing to that? And if not, it makes sense to trade for players who will be. Outfield is also an area where we're stacked, with Brinson, Broxton, Santana, Cordell and Philips already. Ray, Clarke and others in the low minors. And perhaps a Wren or a Reed or some other unheralded prospect will make forward strides.

 

I guess it just, as always, comes down to what kind of offers we're receiving. Not sold on Puig tbh. I don't doubt his natural talent, but I don't know if he'll ever get the most out of it. OF is our least urgent area we need to improve in, and I'd be wary of the fact that the Dodgers want rid. We should identify the players we want, in areas where we need them, and hold out for that. If we get it, great. If not, Braun will be a productive player for us over the next few years.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think anyone sees him one way or the other. If we are going to attempt to use current data, Braun's current state health wise, etc. signs would point to a decline as more likely than continued high performance.

 

There is nothing that points to him not declining since it is hard to predict such a thing. A lot easier to predict the apposite.

[MrTPlush]

Also did the Brewers set up that interview? Seemed like a clear attempt to fluff up some trade value. Also seems there is little rush to make something happen before May 24th

[pacopete4]

Also did the Brewers set up that interview? Seemed like a clear attempt to fluff up some trade value. Also seems there is little rush to make something happen before May 24th

 

Thought the same thing myself. Leads me to think, do the Brewers want him gone? Does Braun want to be a Dodger? Usually there's behind the scenes things to this type of thing.

[adambr2]

Really good starting pitcher (Prefer MLB/AAA level, but would accept any level at this point) and lottery ticket guy or two gets it done for me at this point. They have tried to get more, couldn't, and now it's definitely a buyer's market for Braun.

 

If there are still serious talks with the Dodgers, don't get greedy. Those last two years are going to be rough. He has already missed two games this year with a tight back, played DH in another. Can you imagine 3-4 years from now? Let's get this done. Free up the salary, free up LF for a younger, faster, more athletic player who can also match Braun's offensive production over this 4 year period.

 

I agree. It just makes good business sense. We have a glutton of outfielders at the MLB level and in the system, and Braun just doesn't really fit the direction right now. Plus there's no telling how his health will hold up. I know there's sentimental value here for many, but it's best to just move on.

[adambr2]

Also did the Brewers set up that interview? Seemed like a clear attempt to fluff up some trade value. Also seems there is little rush to make something happen before May 24th

 

It depends. Do we know that Braun will still waive his 10/5 with no strings attached if we wait until after the 24th to go West? If we're concerned about that day, then maybe we don't know that.

[MrTPlush]

Also did the Brewers set up that interview? Seemed like a clear attempt to fluff up some trade value. Also seems there is little rush to make something happen before May 24th

 

It depends. Do we know that Braun will still waive his 10/5 with no strings attached if we wait until after the 24th to go West? If we're concerned about that day, then maybe we don't know that.

 

His interview seems to clarify a lot surrounding his 10-5 rights. Mainly because Ryan Braun himself doesn't think it means a whole lot. I don't think we would have any problem shipping him out to a West coast contender. Seems the Brewers would like to trade him and Braun would love to be closer to home contending. Though it was reported last month he prefers to play for the Dodgers, staying here is second, and then the other 5 teams he can currently be traded to. That being said I don't think it would be hard to convince him to move to another California team even after he gets 10-5 rights.

 

He is a very interesting case with the 10-5 rights kicking in May 24th where it wouldn't be shocking to see a trade happen there instead of in July. Any history of a player getting traded early to avoid 10-5 rights?

 

 

 

On another note I am confused what Braun was referring to when he said the no trade clause was significant last year when "the trade" almost happened. When I think of "the trade" I think of the Dodgers trade, but in that trade his no trade clause was the opposite of significant.

[adambr2]

Also did the Brewers set up that interview? Seemed like a clear attempt to fluff up some trade value. Also seems there is little rush to make something happen before May 24th

 

It depends. Do we know that Braun will still waive his 10/5 with no strings attached if we wait until after the 24th to go West? If we're concerned about that day, then maybe we don't know that.

 

His interview seems to clarify a lot surrounding his 10-5 rights. Mainly because Ryan Braun himself doesn't think it means a whole lot. I don't think we would have any problem shipping him out to a West coast contender. Seems the Brewers would like to trade him and Braun would love to be closer to home contending. Though it was reported last month he prefers to play for the Dodgers, staying here is second, and then the other 5 teams he can currently be traded to. That being said I don't think it would be hard to convince him to move to another California team even after he gets 10-5 rights.

 

He is a very interesting case with the 10-5 rights kicking in May 24th where it wouldn't be shocking to see a trade happen there instead of in July. Any history of a player getting traded early to avoid 10-5 rights?

 

 

 

On another note I am confused what Braun was referring to when he said the no trade clause was significant last year when "the trade" almost happened. When I think of "the trade" I think of the Dodgers trade, but in that trade his no trade clause was the opposite of significant.

 

No idea. Any chance there was a mystery trade for Braun agreed upon to a different

team which somehow never got out and Braun vetoed it?

[MrTPlush]

On another note I am confused what Braun was referring to when he said the no trade clause was significant last year when "the trade" almost happened. When I think of "the trade" I think of the Dodgers trade, but in that trade his no trade clause was the opposite of significant.

 

No idea. Any chance there was a mystery trade for Braun agreed upon to a different

team which somehow never got out and Braun vetoed it?

 

Looking back on it he might be referring to the Braves attempt to deal for him. Braves loved Braun and wanted him over Kemp. I recall a rumor that Chipper Jones tried to get Braun to waive no trade clause to go to Atlanta. Talks didn't get far and it was probably because Braun gave a quick no on waiving his no trade clause.

[3and2Fastball]

I love how Braun believes he could play SS in MLB right now.

 

Gotta have mental toughness & confidence to play Baseball.

 

Meanwhile, in terms of his age: it really depends on what you think of his talent level. Was it mostly because of steroids? Or is he (in terms of talent) an All-Time Great/Hall of Fame type talent?. Willie Mays' best season was at age 34. Ted Williams & Stan Musial had a few of their best seasons in their late 30's. Hank Aaron had tremendous seasons at age 36-38.

 

Now I'm not saying Braun is an upper echelon All-Time great compared to those names, but his early career stats suggest he was/is just a tick below those guys. If it wasn't all steroids, there are reasons to suspect he can have very productive years in the next several seasons

[adambr2]

I love how Braun believes he could play SS in MLB right now.

 

Gotta have mental toughness & confidence to play Baseball.

 

 

Not laughing at you...just the very thought of that. Braun was one of the worst defensive 3rd basemen of all time 10 years ago. At SS he would make Villar look like Ozzie Smith. Confidence is always a good thing though.

[MrTPlush]

I love how Braun believes he could play SS in MLB right now.

 

I am sure Braun doesn't actually think he can play SS.

[And That]

I guess I would interpret this data not so much as "will a 32yo player decline" - it is highly likely that the player will - but will the player decline too much?

 

Extreme back of the envelope math tells me that Braun would have to produce about 8 WAR between '17-'20 to justify the remainder of his deal. Yes, the production is likely to be front loaded, but if he eclipses 8 WAR all you're doing is saving on the first bit of good production and eating the last bit of bad production. Assuming there is inflation, this is not a bad move. There is also the fact that he has a significant chunk of deferred compensation. This also works in the team's favor.

 

Given the players on that chart, using WAR provided, this is how much they produced in their 33-36yo seasons:

 

• Walker: 19.9
  Berkman: 8.9
  Holiday: 6.8
  Lee: 3.3
  Mondesi: -0.5
  Bagwell: 17.3
  Guerrero: 5.2
  Edmonds: 19.2
  Giles: 13.2
  Alou: 6.8

 

5 of the 10 cleared the 8 WAR hurdle, most of them pretty easily. Holiday and Alou were pretty close. And I'm not sure Mondesi is a great comp because he was toast physically by that point. The contracts he got from the Pirates and Braves in the '04 and '05 seasons gets to that point.

 

Given that extremely small sample size of information, it appears to me that Braun is a little more likely than not to be worth the remainder of his contract. That does not mean he won't decline. It just means that the level of his decline will be acceptable. Which is what Braun's suitors are attempting to determine, and what the Brewers are attempting to value.

[3and2Fastball]

I love how Braun believes he could play SS in MLB right now.

 

I am sure Braun doesn't actually think he can play SS.

 

I am sure he does. I bet Bumgarner thinks he should play 1st and bat cleanup when he's not pitching. Carlos Gomez always asked Roenicke to let him play Short and let him pitch.

 

The level of confidence it takes just to step onto an MLB field is (literally) unreal. It is up to the coaches to put limits on the players.

 

Anyways, I thought it was funny, of course he can't play Short in MLB (he did in college at least), but gotta admire the guys swagger

[Jose Cardenal1]

From LAD:

Walker Buehler, Mitchell White, & Jacob Rhame

 

From SF:

Tyler Beede, Matt Krook, Reyes Moronta

 

1 Top 100 Starting Pitcher (but not in top 50), 1 SP drafted last year & 1 Hard Throwing RP prospect.

 

Realistic?

[Jose Cardenal1]

From LAD:

Walker Buehler, Mitchell White, & Jacob Rhame

 

From SF:

Tyler Beede, Matt Krook, Reyes Moronta

 

1 Top 100 Starting Pitcher (but not in top 50), 1 SP drafted last year & 1 Hard Throwing RP prospect.

 

Realistic?

 

For comparisons sake that would be like the Brewers trading:

 

L.Ortiz, Corbin Burnes and Josh Pennington (Brewers don't have a true Bullpen prospect in the 20-30 range, but Pennington may end up there anyway).

 

If the Brewers were at the stage of competing and had a need, I wouldn't think twice about dealing those three for guy like Braun even with the contract. Makes me think we maybe could get more.

[MrTPlush]

If those kind of deals were possible I am sure this thread would have been closed awhile ago.

[trwi7]

If those kind of deals were possible I am sure this thread would have been closed awhile ago.

 

Yes, last year the deal being talked about was Puig when the Dodgers were down on him, McCarthy when he was hurt and a couple of prospects of unknown quality though we can be pretty sure they weren't the Bellinger, Bueller type of prospect.

[adambr2]

I don't think those prospects are out of the question but the other part of the equation is how much salary we're paying or taking back in bad contracts.

[nate82]

I wish Chase De Jong was still with the Dodgers but here are a few players that I like from the Dodgers:

 

1. Brendon Davis 3B

2. Ibandel Isabel 1B

3. Caleb Ferguson LHP

4. Andrew Sopko RHP

5. Imani Abdullah RHP

 

 

If the Brewers take either Kazmir or McCarthy from the Dodgers I think the Brewers could possibly get Buehler in return but I wouldn't expect much else in return you might be able to get Caleb Ferguson or Ibandel Isabel who both are C or C- type prospects.

[brewmann04]

I want pitchers back from la for Braun

[brewcrewdue80]

 

 

My thing on that .900 mark is that if he experiences a minor decline, but remains above .800 OPS

 

Offensively that .800 OPS stands to be higher than those 3. Giving away a guaranteed .800OPS+ bat for 3 who may never crack .800OPS. For a full season.

 

A team that trades for Braun, do you think they would care about the money in 2020 if they won the World Series in 17 and/or 18?

 

How realistic is that those 3 provide .800+OPS? Brinson, less power/OB Phillips Low Avg medium OB medium power. Ray is all over the place but not sure big anywhere. .260/.310/415 isnt reaching .800. These 3 all bring a higher defense ability than Braun, but the bat is out of their reach until he declines

[trwi7]

What if say Ray tops out as a .260/.325/.425 hitter but provides 60-65 grade defense in left field? That's likely as valuable if not more valuable than Braun in the next few years at a league minimum salary for 3 plus whatever we get in return for Braun.

[JohnBriggs12]

What if say Ray tops out as a .260/.325/.425 hitter but provides 60-65 grade defense in left field? That's likely as valuable if not more valuable than Braun in the next few years at a league minimum salary for 3 plus whatever we get in return for Braun.

 

Impact of defense in LF is minimal and provides very little overall value. See Kyle Schwarber.

[MrTPlush]

 

Offensively that .800 OPS stands to be higher than those 3. Giving away a guaranteed .800OPS+ bat for 3 who may never crack .800OPS. For a full season.

 

A team that trades for Braun, do you think they would care about the money in 2020 if they won the World Series in 17 and/or 18?

 

Don't need them to. If I replace him internally I have "insert player", $70mil, and some prospects from a trade to replace Braun. Sorry to say, but I'm guessing that wouldn't be too hard.

 

So? Unless said team has a crystal ball they don't know that and aren't going to make trades like they know it. That's like trading away the farm right now and saying who cares IF we win the World Series this year.

 

 

 

What I find interesting is the fact neither Santana nor Braun made any attempt to move to first base coming into the season. That leads me to believe such a thing will never happen(at least in Milwaukee). I hope Santana/Broxton both mash just so one can see what the Brewers plan to do in that situation. The Brewers might be put in a situation where they have no choice, but to just get rid of Braun. Sure one could trade Broxton or Santana, but since both would lack a track record you could risk leaving an enormous amount of value on the table in favor of an expensive mid 30s OFer. If both Santana/Broxton hit there is no way you can return Braun/Broxton/Santana to the 2018 roster as Brinson will be taking one of those spots and honestly should get it sometime this year. The logical thing would be to rid yourself of the older, less controllable, and more expensive option. Hopefully we get the luxury of having the problem of getting rid of one of our current 3 OFers.