What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[brwrsfan]

It's hard to say he's overpaid right now given his numbers last year. I think he's actually probably slightly underpaid given the FA market. Now, will he decline as he gets older...probably. Most players do. But we have no idea when that will happen or how much. It's hard to predict. That said, there's no definitive statement here. He very well could still be a very, very good hitter in 3-4 years. Or he could fall off a cliff one year randomly.

[pacopete4]

When I saw David Ortiz do at the age of 40 or whatever he was last year, I then felt perfectly fine with having Braun for the next four years. Braun, while his power is a plus, will still hit at whatever age you put him at. Granted, injury can change that but I think more people blow up his injuries than what they actually are. Put Braun on a contender and he'd be in there 140+ games and smacking the ball around the park. If he never had the PED thing, hardly anyone would be clamoring to trade him. People's mindsets changed after that, which is fine. But I feel it is foolish to give up the type of hitter he is in your lineup.

[brewcrewdue80]

And as he may decline, his contract dollars decline after 2018. 1 and then 2 million more. One thing that will never decline is inflation and average dollars paid to MLB players. After 2018 his 19million may be below what a QO goes for. Which is based on avg of top 125 paid players. Oh 17million for 2020 is like 15.5mil in today's dollars. 17mil today would be about 18.6million in 2020 for the same type of salaried player.

 

And I don't believe MLB's salary figures follow the typical 3% inflation. Let's try 5% even though it's likely higher. Braun's 17mil would be what a 14.6mil player today makes. Meanwhile paying a 17million type of player today would cost 19.7million to sign for 2020.

 

The QO of 16/17 was 17.2mil It was originally for 2012/13 for 13.3mil. 13/14 for 14.1 14/15 for 15.3mil 15/16 15.8

 

That history is 6%, 8.5%, 3.2%, and 8.8% overall a 29.3% increase 4years later. If you repeat the first three years the QO becomes 20.4million for 19/20. When Braun is paid 17million.

 

So while he may decrease with age, so is that contract. Taking the 17.2mil player today becomes a 20.4million player roughly in 2020.

If 1 WAR is worth approx 7.7mil today, Braun will only need to produce about 2WAR under actually to be worth his contract in 2020.

 

Whether he maintains above 2WAR like his history easily show, if he drops to between 1-2WAR he will be pretty close to earning his contract, even how ridiculous 17million sounds to us. There will be 40million per being paid to someone out there for 2020, probably multiple someones.

 

Just some numbers out there for you since baseball is a deeply routed by the numbers game of statistics.

[MrTPlush]

When I saw David Ortiz do at the age of 40 or whatever he was last year, I then felt perfectly fine with having Braun for the next four years.

 

Braun, while his power is a plus, will still hit at whatever age you put him at.

 

You just compared a career all time great DH to an outfielder who commonly finds himself on the injury report that also has two concerning chronic injuries. I am not sure why that would make you feel good.

 

There is nothing to promise that.

[MrTPlush]

If 1 WAR is worth approx 7.7mil today, Braun will only need to produce about 2WAR under actually to be worth his contract in 2020.

 

The problem I have, even if that is true, is the fact we will likely have someone waiting in the wings that could put up a 2+ war for a fraction of the cost. Do we really want Braun blocking someone younger while Braun likely sits out 20+ games due to injuries and plays average at best defense?

 

As long as he puts up a 3+ WAR it really isn't a big deal. If that changes....ehhh.

[pacopete4]

 

You just compared a career all time great DH to an outfielder who commonly finds himself on the injury report that also has two concerning chronic injuries. I am not sure why that would make you feel good.

 

There is nothing to promise that.

 

To you maybe there's not but I see it differently. To me playing left field is really no big deal on your body. Sure, is there most risk than sitting on a bench, yeah. But I just don't see it as that big of a deal. Nor do I make a bid deal from Brauns chronic injuries. He has learned to manage that and he stays in shape. Again, these are all opinions I just don't see a fall off with his bat from ages 32-36. If there is, it won't be a great fall off unless I'm completely wrong on his body. Heck, I'm not sure Braun would even hang around if his body does give out on him. He's a different guy now that he's a family man.

[adambr2]

I can see Braun possibly being worth 4/76, but I think the length of his contract is probably a lot of the reason he wasn't traded this off-season. If he had 2/38 remaining I don't think it would have been as big of a deal to another team.

 

Also unless Braun would break down in a way that would leave him completely unable to play like Prince Fielder, and therefore still be able to collect the remainder of his contract, I can't see him walking away early. It's almost unprecedented for a player to voluntarily walk away from that much money remaining on his contract and retire.

[pacopete4]

I can't see him walking away early. It's almost unprecedented for a player to voluntarily walk away from that much money remaining on his contract and retire.

 

Me either but there was an interview even this offseason how he mentioned how hard it is to be away from his kids and that he hopes he can retire at a "young" age. Now does that mean 40 to him or 33-34? They didn't follow up with it. But he did speak on the older they(his kids) are getting, the more he is missing. It's hard to get a perfect pulse on it but usually people don't talk about retirement unless it's on the Braun somewhere.

[Greenleaf1]

Sooo.....then there's this: http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/224009890/two-trade-deadlines-approaching-for-ryan-braun/?topicId=27118386

 

I had to wipe my eyes a few times, but does that article say that the Dodgers and Brewers are still having contact about Braun?

 

There's some interesting details in here that seem to suggest that it's possible we still trade Braun within the next month. I still think that's highly unlikely but we'll see.

[FVBrewerFan]

Really good starting pitcher (Prefer MLB/AAA level, but would accept any level at this point) and lottery ticket guy or two gets it done for me at this point. They have tried to get more, couldn't, and now it's definitely a buyer's market for Braun.

 

If there are still serious talks with the Dodgers, don't get greedy. Those last two years are going to be rough. He has already missed two games this year with a tight back, played DH in another. Can you imagine 3-4 years from now? Let's get this done. Free up the salary, free up LF for a younger, faster, more athletic player who can also match Braun's offensive production over this 4 year period.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, sounds like the Dodgers are still in play for a deal.

[MillerParkSouth]

If anything, it makes it seem like the 10/5 rights won't be a hurdle at all since it sounds like there's an understanding that the Brewers wouldn't try to trade him somewhere he didn't want to go anyways.

[pacopete4]

Really good starting pitcher (Prefer MLB/AAA level, but would accept any level at this point) and lottery ticket guy or two gets it done for me at this point. They have tried to get more, couldn't, and now it's definitely a buyer's market for Braun.

 

If there are still serious talks with the Dodgers, don't get greedy. Those last two years are going to be rough. He has already missed two games this year with a tight back, played DH in another. Can you imagine 3-4 years from now? Let's get this done. Free up the salary, free up LF for a younger, faster, more athletic player who can also match Braun's offensive production over this 4 year period.

 

 

He's missed one and playing DH in the AL is pretty common over his career. You also aren't going to match his production with just anyone. He's a special player and when he actually is gone, people will see that just like we did when Prince left town. Oh and if it's a buyers market, who cares? You don't just make a move to make one. It has to make sense on both sides. Stearns knows this.

[Greenleaf1]

That article almost plays like April Fools fan fiction. Braun is willing to play first base haha that would make a lot of people around here happy.

 

You'd think those Dodgers talks would get pretty far pretty fast, since so much ground work was done last August. Although you have to think we wanted De Leon so now that he's gone, it might make a deal slightly harder to figure out.

[pacopete4]

Cody Belinger plus or I walk away.

[FVBrewerFan]

Really good starting pitcher (Prefer MLB/AAA level, but would accept any level at this point) and lottery ticket guy or two gets it done for me at this point. They have tried to get more, couldn't, and now it's definitely a buyer's market for Braun.

 

If there are still serious talks with the Dodgers, don't get greedy. Those last two years are going to be rough. He has already missed two games this year with a tight back, played DH in another. Can you imagine 3-4 years from now? Let's get this done. Free up the salary, free up LF for a younger, faster, more athletic player who can also match Braun's offensive production over this 4 year period.

 

 

He's missed one and playing DH in the AL is pretty common over his career. You also aren't going to match his production with just anyone. He's a special player and when he actually is gone, people will see that just like we did when Prince left town. Oh and if it's a buyers market, who cares? You don't just make a move to make one. It has to make sense on both sides. Stearns knows this.

 

Ok, you're right. He didn't MISS two games, but one of those all he had was a PH appearance, and Brewers reported he didn't play because of back tightness that day.

 

Nobody is disputing Braun is a special player. And no, you don't replace his production with just anyone. But with guys like Brinson, Phillips, Ray, etc. coming up odds are in favor someone will. Remember, we're not replacing Braun's production from the last 4 years, we're talking about the next four. And I don't think even you believes Braun will be hitting over .900 4 years from now, playing the majority of games.

[pacopete4]

Really good starting pitcher (Prefer MLB/AAA level, but would accept any level at this point) and lottery ticket guy or two gets it done for me at this point. They have tried to get more, couldn't, and now it's definitely a buyer's market for Braun.

 

If there are still serious talks with the Dodgers, don't get greedy. Those last two years are going to be rough. He has already missed two games this year with a tight back, played DH in another. Can you imagine 3-4 years from now? Let's get this done. Free up the salary, free up LF for a younger, faster, more athletic player who can also match Braun's offensive production over this 4 year period.

 

 

He's missed one and playing DH in the AL is pretty common over his career. You also aren't going to match his production with just anyone. He's a special player and when he actually is gone, people will see that just like we did when Prince left town. Oh and if it's a buyers market, who cares? You don't just make a move to make one. It has to make sense on both sides. Stearns knows this.

 

Ok, you're right. He didn't MISS two games, but one of those all he had was a PH appearance, and Brewers reported he didn't play because of back tightness that day.

 

Nobody is disputing Braun is a special player. And no, you don't replace his production with just anyone. But with guys like Brinson, Phillips, Ray, etc. coming up odds are in favor someone will. Remember, we're not replacing Braun's production from the last 4 years, we're talking about the next four. And I don't think even you believes Braun will be hitting over .900 4 years from now, playing the majority of games.

 

They are careful with the back and why wouldn't they be? The days of guys playing 162 are almost dead. Even listening to the Colorado feed last week they talked about Arenado beginning to get days off this year. He's 25.

 

I do. I think he's about 140 gamer, .875-.900 ops guy over the rest of his contract. He's been too consistent for too long for me to think otherwise. Now could injury derail him. Sure. But it can with anyone. But simply aging to his mid 30's doesn't scream decline to me for a hitter like him.

[And That]

Cody Belinger plus or I walk away.

The Dodgers are probably more likely to play Bellinger in LF than trade him for Braun.

[brewerfan82]

Nobody is disputing Braun is a special player. And no, you don't replace his production with just anyone. But with guys like Brinson, Phillips, Ray, etc. coming up odds are in favor someone will. Remember, we're not replacing Braun's production from the last 4 years, we're talking about the next four. And I don't think even you believes Braun will be hitting over .900 4 years from now, playing the majority of games.

 

I do. I think he's about 140 gamer, .875-.900 ops guy over the rest of his contract. He's been too consistent for too long for me to think otherwise. Now could injury derail him. Sure. But it can with anyone. But simply aging to his mid 30's doesn't scream decline to me for a hitter like him.

He's had 1 season with an OPS over .870 in the past 4 years and you think there's no evidence to support he won't be an .875-.900 OPS guy for the rest of his career?

[MrTPlush]

Do we even compete over the course of his contract?

 

Is it really that hard to replace him? We have a plethora of OF prospects and young guys on the team now. You could insert one of those guys in two years plus have $20mil yearly to make up for the loss of Braun's production. Pretty sure we could make up for the 2-3 WAR Braun will provide yearly in the last couple years of that contract.

[pacopete4]

Cody Belinger plus or I walk away.

The Dodgers are probably more likely to play Bellinger in LF than trade him for Braun.

 

 

Yeah it would make sense on their end but I'd force them to make that call.

[pacopete4]

Nobody is disputing Braun is a special player. And no, you don't replace his production with just anyone. But with guys like Brinson, Phillips, Ray, etc. coming up odds are in favor someone will. Remember, we're not replacing Braun's production from the last 4 years, we're talking about the next four. And I don't think even you believes Braun will be hitting over .900 4 years from now, playing the majority of games.

 

I do. I think he's about 140 gamer, .875-.900 ops guy over the rest of his contract. He's been too consistent for too long for me to think otherwise. Now could injury derail him. Sure. But it can with anyone. But simply aging to his mid 30's doesn't scream decline to me for a hitter like him.

He's had 1 season with an OPS over .870 in the past 4 years and you think there's no evidence to support he won't be an .875-.900 OPS guy for the rest of his career?

 

Battled through quite a bit in that time period and still put together good seasons. Again, you or anyone else does not have to agree with me. I just see him on the other side of those nagging injuries and will put up years just like last season. Especially with a better team around him.

[SandyTolan]

The Morosi article today on MLB.com makes me think that whatever we all think and argue, this trade may well happen, with a Giants-Dodgers bidding war a real possibility. Braun is remarkably candid about the prospects of a trade. Makes me think he is trying to build up his appeal as a good-citizen ballplayer, after all that has happened.

 

http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/224009890/two-trade-deadlines-approaching-for-ryan-braun/

[brewerfan82]

But simply aging to his mid 30's doesn't scream decline to me for a hitter like him.

History shows otherwise:

 

 

Small sample and I would love to have the time to go through a larger sample, but there are plenty of reasons to expect aging to result in a decline, it's inevitable. That last year (the one where we are most likely to need a highly productive player), could be a doozy. There are always exceptions, but generally, highly productive and consistent players of his stature, have shown a decline starting at his age and it would be foolish to assume otherwise, especially when we're not in a position to compete during most of the remainder of his contract.

[pacopete4]

But simply aging to his mid 30's doesn't scream decline to me for a hitter like him.

History shows otherwise:

 

 

Small sample and I would love to have the time to go through a larger sample, but there are plenty of reasons to expect aging to result in a decline, it's inevitable. That last year (the one where we are most likely to need a highly productive player), could be a doozy. There are always exceptions, but generally, highly productive and consistent players of his stature, have shown a decline starting at his age and it would be foolish to assume otherwise, especially when we're not in a position to compete during most of the remainder of his contract.

 

Well first off, there are some pretty good years that the chart you posted has on it. Another thing is, some of those guys don't compare to Braun as a balplayers. And, there are plenty of guys who have had success in their mid 30's and and even closer to 40. I think of guys like Jim Thome, David Ortiz, Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter, heck even Aramis Ramirez didn't fall off until his age 36 season. Does it happen for everyone? Of course it doesn't. And again, agree to disagree, but I see Braun as one of those special hitters that will continue to hit until he wants to hang up his cleats. Will he always play a passable LF? That will be a question I'm sure but I don't see that declining too much over the next few years as he still runs well and keeps himself in great shape. Either way, it's great that you don't feel he will be a good player moving forward, I just see it differently. Time will tell as to who is more right. Either way, making a move, just to make a move is a really bad idea to me.