What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

[brewcrewdue80]

Well, after week 1, it's realistic to say Braun's bat is not dropping. And he's made some wonderful defensive plays already.

I just think it is amazingly funny how people want to weigh the projections with his aging, when the stats don't follow a dropoff one bit. 8 of 10 years being exceptional, including just last year, yet a decline must happen. Meanwhile guys like Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy are gaining peaks post age 30 that none of their careers would have suggested. David Ortiz continued at 40 with record breaking numbers. I know I've said multiple times before but excuse me for believing in HIS trends and not the history of trends for all of MLB history at his age. He's managed to bat above average through injury and then turn that bat in to elite once again last season.

 

Puig comes with baggage and an uneven history with the bat. His defense is not elite compared to what we have knocking on the door. His rookie season which would appear to be his ceiling for the moment, is equatable to Braun's career season average at the plate, which he about posted exactly to last season. But, take his last two seasons and that equates to Braun's Worst season which was his first recovering from his thumb injury. Puig 2 of 4 season, Braun 1 of 10seasons. His contract ends before Braun's, Puig continues these .750OPS seasons, what true value are you getting in a trade for him? And if more Antics occur and his clubhouse cancer becomes a continued thing, is a team even going to want to trade for him? Let's think of his mindset, go from a perennial Division winner to a team in rebuild. From LA to Milwaukee. I believe it'll turn worse for him in such a move.

 

Braun however wants to play here. Wants to perform. And certainly has done as well as he can to not be a disruptive clubhouse presence.

[HighHeat19]

When is the date that Braun's full no trade clause kicks in?

[SandyTolan]

I think it's May 24

[adambr2]

Well, after week 1, it's realistic to say Braun's bat is not dropping. And he's made some wonderful defensive plays already.

I just think it is amazingly funny how people want to weigh the projections with his aging, when the stats don't follow a dropoff one bit. 8 of 10 years being exceptional, including just last year, yet a decline must happen. Meanwhile guys like Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy are gaining peaks post age 30 that none of their careers would have suggested. David Ortiz continued at 40 with record breaking numbers. I know I've said multiple times before but excuse me for believing in HIS trends and not the history of trends for all of MLB history at his age. He's managed to bat above average through injury and then turn that bat in to elite once again last season.

 

Puig comes with baggage and an uneven history with the bat. His defense is not elite compared to what we have knocking on the door. His rookie season which would appear to be his ceiling for the moment, is equatable to Braun's career season average at the plate, which he about posted exactly to last season. But, take his last two seasons and that equates to Braun's Worst season which was his first recovering from his thumb injury. Puig 2 of 4 season, Braun 1 of 10seasons. His contract ends before Braun's, Puig continues these .750OPS seasons, what true value are you getting in a trade for him? And if more Antics occur and his clubhouse cancer becomes a continued thing, is a team even going to want to trade for him? Let's think of his mindset, go from a perennial Division winner to a team in rebuild. From LA to Milwaukee. I believe it'll turn worse for him in such a move.

 

Braun however wants to play here. Wants to perform. And certainly has done as well as he can to not be a disruptive clubhouse presence.

 

You literally assume every possible good outcome for Braun and every possible bad outcome for Puig. Sorry, to me, that's homerism.

 

I'm just telling you what the projections are. I know they're not perfect, but they're not a group of drunk dudes in a basement watching baseball who hate Braun and love Puig, either. There's science, precedent, and reasoning that goes into these.

 

Time will tell who is right on this.

[pacopete4]

 

Time will tell who is right on this.

 

 

Can we please let it die then? Revisit this in four years when Braun is still raking and Puig is playing in Korea.

[Madhawk23]

OK - I know it's way too early for trade talks to heat up, but what type of package would Stearns need in return if the Giants came calling about Braun and someone like Knebel (assuming he continues to pitch well)? I know their system isn't great to begin with, but would a package return of Beede, Arroyo and Fabian be too much to ask if we were giving up both Braun and Knebel? This would completely gut an already think farm system for the Giants, so I doubt they'd pull the trigger. Also, not sure what the upside really is for Beede or Arroyo?

[TURBO]

I don't want to trade Braun just to trade him. I'd completely pass on that offer from the Giants. We can afford to keep Braun for the remainder of his contract, there is no reason for a fire sale or to move him to save $.

 

Let him retire a Brewer if need be...

[adambr2]

OK - I know it's way too early for trade talks to heat up, but what type of package would Stearns need in return if the Giants came calling about Braun and someone like Knebel (assuming he continues to pitch well)? I know their system isn't great to begin with, but would a package return of Beede, Arroyo and Fabian be too much to ask if we were giving up both Braun and Knebel? This would completely gut an already think farm system for the Giants, so I doubt they'd pull the trigger. Also, not sure what the upside really is for Beede or Arroyo?

 

Braun and Knebel for Beede, Arroyo and Fabian, no salary heading to the Giants or equivalent cap number coming back? Yes, I'd do it.

[wildcat2237]

OK - I know it's way too early for trade talks to heat up, but what type of package would Stearns need in return if the Giants came calling about Braun and someone like Knebel (assuming he continues to pitch well)? I know their system isn't great to begin with, but would a package return of Beede, Arroyo and Fabian be too much to ask if we were giving up both Braun and Knebel? This would completely gut an already think farm system for the Giants, so I doubt they'd pull the trigger. Also, not sure what the upside really is for Beede or Arroyo?

 

Braun and Knebel for Beede, Arroyo and Fabian, no salary heading to the Giants or equivalent cap number coming back? Yes, I'd do it.

 

I agree with Adambr2.

 

Beede only allowed 136 hits in 147.1 innings at AA last year. In addition, he only allowed 9 home runs and posted a 2.81 era.

 

This suggests he has pretty nasty stuff and may end up a front line starter.

 

I would do the deal if the Giants are picking up all of the salary.

[MrTPlush]

 

Time will tell who is right on this.

 

 

Can we please let it die then? Revisit this in four years when Braun is still raking and Puig is playing in Korea.

 

Why everything else on this site is premature speculation most of the time. Right now this site is filled with so much assumptions or overreactions about one week of baseball my head hurts.

 

It's a rebuild people are going to be future oriented and want to look a few years ahead.

[HighHeat19]

The Padres are LOADED with pitching prospects. The Padres are a team that cannot be blocked by Braun. The Padres need a left fielder badly. The Padres seem to be playing pretty good ball. The Padres can afford Braun's salary. What am I missing here???

[brewerfan82]

The Padres are LOADED with pitching prospects. The Padres are a team that cannot be blocked by Braun. The Padres need a left fielder badly. The Padres seem to be playing pretty good ball. The Padres can afford Braun's salary. What am I missing here???

It's only been 8 games. They're still only 4-4. And they're still projected by FanGraphs to be the worst team in baseball this year (http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings). Nice thinking outside the box though! And with that said, their GM did trade for Kemp a couple years ago for fun.

[adambr2]

The Padres are LOADED with pitching prospects. The Padres are a team that cannot be blocked by Braun. The Padres need a left fielder badly. The Padres seem to be playing pretty good ball. The Padres can afford Braun's salary. What am I missing here???

 

The fact that the Padres are a bad rebuilding club with no chance to contend in the West and zero need for a 19M a year 33 year old veteran outfielder.

[SandyTolan]

The Padres are LOADED with pitching prospects. The Padres are a team that cannot be blocked by Braun. The Padres need a left fielder badly. The Padres seem to be playing pretty good ball. The Padres can afford Braun's salary. What am I missing here???

 

The fact that the Padres are a bad rebuilding club with no chance to contend in the West and zero need for a 19M a year 33 year old veteran outfielder.

 

 

But other than that, what?

[brewcrewdue80]

The Padres are LOADED with pitching prospects. The Padres are a team that cannot be blocked by Braun. The Padres need a left fielder badly. The Padres seem to be playing pretty good ball. The Padres can afford Braun's salary. What am I missing here???

 

The fact that the Padres are a bad rebuilding club with no chance to contend in the West and zero need for a 19M a year 33 year old veteran outfielder.

 

 

But other than that, what?

 

Well the fact that their top prospects are the solutions today for CF and RF. You want to start a trade with Cal Quantrill? Or we go that route where we take real projects for prospects because we need to acquire more depth in the minors while trading a HoF type of player.

 

Since you're pushing for a San Diego trade, what is the offer you would expect they'd give in return for Braun?

[A Swing and A Drive]

San Diego is rostering three Rule 5 draft guys.

 

They are doing the most obvious "tanking" job in the history of Major League Baseball.

 

I'm sure trading for an aging, overpaid OF with a long contract is at the top of their to-do list now that they broke out of the gates with 4 wins in 8 games.

 

Gotta do something to get the Chargers to come back...

[pacopete4]

Braun is not overpaid. Carry on.

[adambr2]

He's not overpaid right now, but there's a good chance he will be on the back end of his contract. The remainder on his deal is probably roughly about market for what he would get as a free agent right now.

 

Thus the reason he went unclaimed on waivers last August and typical assumptions about us getting anything of value for him require us either eating a substantial chunk of his remaining salary or taking back a player with some decent salary.

[pacopete4]

Until you can see the decline. He's not overpaid. Carry on.

[SandyTolan]

My other than that, what? comment was made with tongue firmly planted in cheek, because I thought the previous answer was pretty convincing. Darn that elusive sarcasm font!

[crickets]

With Braun and his 10/5 rights about to take effect next month I took a stab at breaking down need and top talent in other teams farm systems:

 

Stearns needs a top 50 prospect back and I bet he’s requesting a top 25 in return which he should. I am hoping that with his one change to his list that maybe one of the teams on his list make a play for him like the Dodgers or Giants before the time comes up, knowing that there is another team out there that he can go to.

 

On No Trade List 2016, one change from last year:

 

Dodgers – Have a need in LF, they are sending out Toles, Gutierrez and Van Slyke and they have a deep farm system. Top 100 Prospects: Bellinger #10 likely off limits, P Yadier Alvarez #46, OF Verdugo #58, 2B Calhoun #78, P Buehler #89

 

Giants – Need in LF with Parker and Marrero, so so farm system P Beede #84, Inf Arroy #85

 

Diamondbacks – Tomas in LF, not a good LF’r, not a good farm system

 

Marlins – No real need in OF, not a good farm system

 

Angels – Have a need in LF but not enough in the farm system

 

Padres – Good Farm system, No chance

 

Teams with a need and a good farm system - He would need to approve:

 

Cubs – Babe Ruth, I mean Schwarber has a career slash line of 240/356/483 and he’s not a good defender by any means. Likely a DH or 1B on any other team. They can likely move people around to LF if need be, but if they are calling, I’d be for a Schwarber and Eloy Jimenez return for Braun and stash Schwarber at 1B, Thames in LF for the time being. Cubs would need to overpay to make this happen. Would compete for championship with a solid core for the next 4 years.

 

Astros – Aoki in LF, good farm system that would need to be headlined by Martes or Paulino

 

Blue Jays – Steve Pearce in LF, interesting pieces at the top of their system in Vlad Jr, Sean Reid-Foley and Rowdy Tellez. His wife has ties to Toronto.

 

A’s – Who knows with Billy Beane. Matt Joyce in RF and a decent farm system INF Barreto #49, P Puk #66, P Holmes #81, 3B Chapman #96, P Montas #98. Another West Coast City.

 

Nationals – Werth in LF on last year of contract, they have a 2 year window until most hit FA. Have OF Robles at #5 and P Fedde #57, not sure how much more they want to dish out considering they gave up half their farm for Adam Eaton. Used to be on his approved trade list.

 

Rangers - Have DeShields, Profar, Gallo, Rua in LF. They need a back of a bullpen the most at this point. We can always part with Knebel and Feliz in a package. Their system has been gutted the last couple years but they still have some good talent still, probably need Mendez in return.

 

 

No Chance in my mind whether they don’t have a window in the next couple years, need in OF or don’t have a farm system:

Atlanta Braves

White Sox

Reds

Indians

Rockies

Tigers

Twins

Mets

Yankees

Orioles

Phillies

Pirates

Cardinals

Red Sox

Royals

Mariners

Rays

[chuckiehacks]

I’d be for a Schwarber and Eloy Jimenez return for Braun

 

The Cubs wouldn't trade either of these guys straight up for Braun. To get them both, we'd need to pay all of Braun's remaining salary and throw in Miller Park (which the Cubs pretty much own already anyway). Even that's probably not enough.

[crickets]

I’d be for a Schwarber and Eloy Jimenez return for Braun

 

The Cubs wouldn't trade either of these guys straight up for Braun. To get them both, we'd need to pay all of Braun's remaining salary and throw in Miller Park (which the Cubs pretty much own already anyway). Even that's probably not enough.

 

 

And did you read the next two sentences....

"Cubs would need to overpay to make this happen. Would compete for championship with a solid core for the next 4 years."

[MrTPlush]

Braun is not overpaid. Carry on.

 

Pretty darn close to it if not overpaid.

[Oldcity]

Braun is not overpaid. Carry on.

 

Pretty darn close to it if not overpaid.

 

And very likely to be as he ages.