2017-05-09 Red Sox (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Peralta) 6:40pm CDT (Brewers win 11 - 7)

[jason21nl]

Another guy that can get lost

[pacopete4]

Gets Peralta outta there. Puts in Torres expecting a different result. Sucks for Counsell that this is the pitching staff he has been given.

[topper09er]

 

You only need a 69% success rate stealing 3rd with 1 out to break even, so it is not a terrible idea. Villar in his career steals 3rd base at 80% (28/35)

 

Thank you. Obviously he didn't execute it well at all. But it's not a horrible idea to try once in awhile. If there had been 2 out, much different situation.

 

Yup, with 2 outs you need an 88% break even success rate so Villar should never be stealing with 2 outs.

I tried to find an all-time great 3rd base stealer and fun fact, the player with the highest SB success rate in MLB history is...CHase Utley at 88%. however, in his entire career he is only 3/4 stealing 3rd! Carlos Beltran is up there at 86% overall, and he is just barely good enough to attempt stealing 3rd with 2 outs, his SB3 rate is 74/82 = 90%

[pacopete4]

Khris Davis flashbacks on that throw in from Braun.

 

 

It didn't three hop the cut man.

[adambr2]

Pretty much was guaranteed to be 6-4 or worse the minute Torres came into the game. Lucky it wasn't worse. Can't wait to get guys like Hader, Woodruff, and Lopez up. Maybe we can try Peralta and Nelson in the pen and take out the trash on some of these bad relievers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

You don't steal 3rd with no outs or two outs - you do steal 3rd with 1 out. Same goes for trying to go from 1st to 3rd on a single, or trying to turn a double into a triple - if you're 50/50 to make it, the good, aggressive baseball play is to try and get on 3rd with 1 out. With no outs or two outs, you've pretty much got to be guaranteed making it to third safely to make it a good baseball play.

[topper09er]

Here is one of my favorite trivia questions. Since the modern MVP award was invented in 1931, the only team to win at least 1 every decade is the Red Sawx. Can you name at least 1 of their players to do it for every decade? They have 3 years left to win one or end the streak

[adambr2]

Not incredibly optimistic that 6 runs is enough to win this game with our pen.

[FVBrewerFan]

Trying to steal 3rd with one out is not the end of the world. With 2 out it's much worse. We make such a huge deal every time Villar gets caught stealing but probably wouldn't have said much it it was anyone else.

 

You certainly don't want to make a habit of it but a runner on 3rd with one out has a lot more advantages than being on 2nd. Execution wise it was a bad play, bad jump, but if you can get a good one it's not a terrible idea.

 

No, it's a terrible idea. Especially with Braun at the plate. Even more, I hate the way it seems to be tolerated.

 

You only need a 69% success rate stealing 3rd with 1 out to break even, so it is not a terrible idea. Villar in his career steals 3rd base at 80% (28/35)

 

With Arcia and pitchers spot up, sure take your chances. I don't like it at all with the heart of the order up. Personal preference I guess.

[TURBO]

So sick of seeing Torres on the mound. This has to end, there has to be someone, someplace that can do better.

 

yuk

[adambr2]

This ump sucks.

[homer]

Here is one of my favorite trivia questions. Since the modern MVP award was invented in 1931, the only team to win at least 1 every decade is the Red Sawx. Can you name at least 1 of their players to do it for every decade? They have 3 years left to win one or end the streak

 

Wild guess:

 

Williams 40's

Williams 50's

Yaz 60's

Fred Lynn 70's

Roger Clemens 80's

Nomah 90's

Big Papi 00's

 

Not too confident about any of them other than Lynn and maybe Yaz and one of the Williams.

[markedman5]

The real question is why wasn't Villar able to get to 3rd on Thames hit when he was running on the pitch? Never should have had to try and steal 3rd.

[nate82]

How long can you go with starting pitchers who can't even get through 5 or 6 innings?

 

Majority of the #1 - 3 pitchers in baseball on average only go about 6 innings. Last year there were only two pitchers in all of MLB that averaged 7 IP and there were 0 above 7 IP and that is only if you include Kershaw who was injured last year.

 

There were a total of 49 pitchers in MLB last year who averaged 6 or more innings. So you are looking at about 1.5 pitchers per team who make it through the 6th inning or longer. The Brewers had 1 player who consistently went 6 innings last year in Guerra and both Davies (5.83) and Nelson (5.6) were also close in going 6 innings last year. So far this year only Anderson and Garza are close to 6 IP per game started at 5.7 each. Nelson, Peralta, and Davies are all around the 5 IP mark or just above it so far this year. So the Brewers are getting through the 5th inning barely and are almost at the 6 inning average.

[markedman5]

Here is one of my favorite trivia questions. Since the modern MVP award was invented in 1931, the only team to win at least 1 every decade is the Red Sawx. Can you name at least 1 of their players to do it for every decade? They have 3 years left to win one or end the streak

 

Wild guess:

 

Williams 40's

Williams 50's

Yaz 60's

Fred Lynn 70's

Roger Clemens 80's

Nomah 90's

Big Papi 00's

 

Not too confident about any of them other than Lynn and maybe Yaz and one of the Williams.

 

Didn't Pedroia win it 1 year? Rice?

[LouisEly]

Roger Clemens or Wade Boggs in the 80's

[homer]

I thought about Rice for the 80's but changed it to Clemens - wild card!

[adambr2]

The real question is why wasn't Villar able to get to 3rd on Thames hit when he was running on the pitch? Never should have had to try and steal 3rd.

 

It was a pretty hard hit ball, but I thought he'd make it to 3rd on it as well.

[topper09er]

 

You only need a 69% success rate stealing 3rd with 1 out to break even, so it is not a terrible idea. Villar in his career steals 3rd base at 80% (28/35)

 

With Arcia and pitchers spot up, sure take your chances. I don't like it at all with the heart of the order up. Personal preference I guess.

 

Very good point, I will say these stats do need to account for the hitter but they do not. My gut feeling is that Braun does not increase the chance of scoring above the average player by more than 10%, but maybe he does. It does get closer.

 

Thisis a cool way to adjust RE for the batter, Braun has a .400 wOBA this year, so putting that in it increases the R1R2 1 out RE from .832 to 1.104, huge increase of 33%. So clearly you cant just add 69+33 and say Villar needs to make it 102 % of the time, but maybe it does get close enough to not justify an attempt

[nate82]

 

Didn't Pedroia win it 1 year? Rice?

 

Pedroia won it in 07 or 08 it was after his rookie year.

 

Also forgetting Vaughn in the 90's and I had to look it up in the 50's who won and it wasn't Williams. No one will probably guess who won it in the 50's.

[adambr2]

Can't believe Santana doesn't wind up with a double on that.

[topper09er]

Here is one of my favorite trivia questions. Since the modern MVP award was invented in 1931, the only team to win at least 1 every decade is the Red Sawx. Can you name at least 1 of their players to do it for every decade? They have 3 years left to win one or end the streak

 

Wild guess:

 

Williams 40's

Williams 50's

Yaz 60's

Fred Lynn 70's

Roger Clemens 80's

Nomah 90's

Big Papi 00's

 

Not too confident about any of them other than Lynn and maybe Yaz and one of the Williams.

 

Didn't Pedroia win it 1 year? Rice?

 

1930s:

1940s: Williams correct 1946 and 1949 (note he won the triple crown in 42 and 47 but no MVP, hit .406 in 41 but no MVP, and spent 43-45 in WWII) Not a bad decade

1950s: wrong

1960s: Yaz correct 1967

1970s: Lynn correct 1975. Also Jim Rice 1978

1980s: Clemens correct 1986

1990s: edit* Mo Vaughn 1995 from post above

2000s: Pedroia correct 2008

 

Also, both of the winners from the 30s are in the HOF. 1950s is impossible

[yfinn6]

Has the worry about Arcia's bat subsided a bit? I'd say so. I thought people jumped the gun with that.

[jerichoholicninja]

You're welcome for adding Hembree to my fantasy team this morning.

[adambr2]

Has the worry about Arcia's bat subsided a bit? I'd say so. I thought people jumped the gun with that.

 

I mean you'd still like to see him get that OPS up in the. 700 range or so. But he'll be fine IMO.