I Can't Believe the Standings

[wildcat83]

The Brewers would stand a decent chance in the playoffs if the Jimmy Nelson we've seen over the last 6 weeks is real, Anderson returns to his recent form when he comes back and they shock everyone and make a deal for a Gray or Quintana.

 

They aren't getting impact pitching without giving up something. They said they would not jeopardize future for this year, and I hope they stick to that plan. The success has been a great surprise, but this isn't a World Series team. Enjoy the ride, but the main goal has to be the future still.

[Dead Simmons]

meh, every team has a shot in baseball's postseason. Same for the playoffs in the NFL. #6 teams win all the time, Wild Card teams in baseball too.

That's true but it's still really daunting. While the WC aces are burned, the Div. winner is setting their rotations and have a rested pen, and of course the HFA. I remember 2006 as quite a fluke. The Tigers were the better team with a FAR better manager in Leland, but the Cards had an unknown Wainwright and Molina, both at their youthful best. (last year the Cubs had an unknown Schwarber) And nobody could have predicted the incredible number of critical errors by the Detroit pitchers all at crucial moments.

 

You have to go back to the 1960 Yank/Pirates WS for a bigger post season fluke!

[SomewhereInTime]

meh, every team has a shot in baseball's postseason. Same for the playoffs in the NFL. #6 teams win all the time, Wild Card teams in baseball too.

 

In the NBA you're right though, it's a rather pointless playoff and really only is necessary to stop three quarters of the league from tanking every year. No #5, #7, or #8 has ever won an NBA title, and a #6 has only done it once.

 

Only 2 #6 teams have won the Super Bowl in NFL history and one of those is headquartered on Lombardi Ave in northeastern WI.

 

A little bias on my part I guess since both were fairly recent.

[MrTPlush]

Someone stated July 4th as World Series or bust. We have a 3 game lead which means at least a piece of 1st place on July 4th.

 

What will it cost to get Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana.

[Dragonbait]

I feel like nostradamas with that call. :p

[jerichoholicninja]

The Nats are doing us no favors losing to the Cubs and Cards. And getting hosed tonight on a strike 3 to end the game.

[areacodes]

The Nats are doing us no favors losing to the Cubs and Cards. And getting hosed tonight on a strike 3 to end the game.

 

That was a terrible call... game should have been tied.

[Boomer5]

Trade Ray for Gray or Quintana.

 

The Cubs are showing no signs of life and the rest of the division is a joke.

[FVBrewerFan]

Cards won 4 in a row, they are very much in it. Cubs have 3 months to get hot. It's a long, long season. Very exciting season so far, and very unexpected. But let's not pretend one or both of those teams can't or won't put it together.

[lcbj68c]

The shoe will drop.

 

Cubs and Cards are .520 talent and the Brewers are .470 talent.

 

Enjoying it while it lasts.

[brewmann04]

Its been fun like i said the first two dates i were looking for the Crew to be in First is First July 4th and then the allstar break

[Dead Simmons]

The shoe will drop.

 

Cubs and Cards are .520 talent and the Brewers are .470 talent.

 

Enjoying it while it lasts.

 

icbj: I can't agree with those numbers....all 3 teams are the exact win % number they reflect TODAY. Those numbers will change this way and that, and that goes for the Reds and Bucs.

[Boomer5]

The shoe will drop.

 

Cubs and Cards are .520 talent and the Brewers are .470 talent.

 

Enjoying it while it lasts.

 

According to Fangraphs, you're right. The Brewers have a bottom 5 roster BUT they have for the most part been healthy and played to career highs almost across the board except for Braun.

 

The Cubs and Cards are more talented on paper without question.

 

And yet here we are on July 2 and it hasn't really been a fluke. The Brewers have played well and the Cubs don't look like anything close to the same team. Ditto the Cards. I'm not sure I see the Cards plans to do much of anything.

[clancyphile]

The shoe will drop.

 

Cubs and Cards are .520 talent and the Brewers are .470 talent.

 

Enjoying it while it lasts.

 

According to Fangraphs, you're right. The Brewers have a bottom 5 roster BUT they have for the most part been healthy and played to career highs almost across the board except for Braun.

 

The Cubs and Cards are more talented on paper without question.

 

And yet here we are on July 2 and it hasn't really been a fluke. The Brewers have played well and the Cubs don't look like anything close to the same team. Ditto the Cards. I'm not sure I see the Cards plans to do much of anything.

 

It's not always about the talent on paper - it's how the manager uses the talent and if he can get the most out of said talent, and the fight in the team.

 

Walter Payton was only 5'10" and 205... but you try stopping him when he had the ball with the game on the line.

[MrTPlush]

The shoe will drop.

 

Cubs and Cards are .520 talent and the Brewers are .470 talent.

 

Enjoying it while it lasts.

 

I have heard that all year and yet here we are. At this point the Brewers are just as likely to get hot and win the division as anyone else. Lets not forget the Rockies who are free falling(1-9 L10) so the second wild card spot could easily be up for grabs as we work deeper into the second half.

[BuckyBrewer61]

The shoe will drop.

 

Cubs and Cards are .520 talent and the Brewers are .470 talent.

 

Enjoying it while it lasts.

 

 

For the sake of argument, let's assume this is true:

 

Brewers 44-39, 79 games remaining. At .470, their remaining record would be 37-42. Final record 81-81

Cubs 40-41, 81 games remaining. At .520, they finish 42-39. Final record 82-80

Cards 39-41, 82 games remaining. At .520, they finish 43-39. Final record 82-80

 

The later in the season we get, the less separation any supposed difference in talent makes in the final standings. If what you say is true, the Brewers are destined for a pennant race down to the last day of the season. Far from the other shoe dropping and the Cubs/Cards running away from us.

[LouisEly]

The shoe will drop.

 

Cubs and Cards are .520 talent and the Brewers are .470 talent.

 

Enjoying it while it lasts.

Averages are essentially useless for forecasting without standard deviations.

 

The x-factors that will determine the outcome will be injuries (can't predict) and trades. The Cubs starting rotation is their big weakness, but I can easily see a trade of Schwarber to an AL team (where he can DH) for a starter.

 

I'm more worried about the Cardinals because of a better rotation. Their starters have been lucky injury-wise, having only missed one start the entire season.

 

The A's have 36-year-old Rajai Davis manning CF, Matt Joyce in RF, and nothing for OF prospects. I don't know if I'd give up Brinson, but the Brewers have Phillips, Cordell, Ray, Clark, and Harrison to swing a deal for Sonny Gray, and could toss in Madson and Doolittle to shore up the Brewers pen. That would change the outlook dramatically.

[Boomer5]

"It's not always about the talent on paper - it's how the manager uses the talent and if he can get the most out of said talent, and the fight in the team.

 

Walter Payton was only 5'10" and 205... but you try stopping him when he had the ball with the game on the line"

 

Agreed. The MLB roster is not an elite group but CC has then playing to career highs. That's why he should be the manager of the year at the half way point.

[rcc]

I like that the club is in first place by 3 games. Is this division the best in the league. No. But the Brewers are playing well enough to have been in first for quite a while now. The guys are doing well but CC and his coaching staff have to get kudos also. If the Brewers make the playoffs I think CC should be manager of the year.

[Sixto]

Analytics and advanced stats are great tools. The downside of those can be if you forget to use the eyes and brain test.

There are definite shortcomings to this team, but every year there is a story, and maybe this year it is us.

The right mix of players, a few ascending guys, and that stars aligning stat. Still a long shot, but weirder things have happened

[homer]

I think everyone thinks the bottom is going to drop out because no one expected there to be a ceiling. Does that make sense? No, but who cares.

[Dragonbait]

At what point of the season do we start thinking, "Hey now... something is happening?"

 

I'm thinking Memorial Day for, "ok, its getting VERY interesting..."

Father's day for, "Ok, now its real"

and 4th of July for, "WS or bust!!!"

 

Time to do some overtime to afford my world series tickets.

[newrivervalley]

Half way thru the season and some really good signs. Players are competing and more importantly, if they screw up, there is an option. Very entertaining.

[pacopete4]

Avoid the long losing streak(s) and this team has a chance. Man this is fun!

[JohnBriggs12]

Still no belief in the Brewers in the Chicago media. It's all about the Cubs failures not an exciting young team just 90 miles away. Let them be blissfully ignorant.