I Can't Believe the Standings

[adambr2]

After the finale with the Cardinals, the Brewers have a 7 game homestand against the Padres and Pirates, then on the road against the Braves and Reds, and back home against the Marlins. The only series between now and July 24th that looks especially daunting on paper is a 3 game series at Yankee Stadium right before the break.

 

The Cubs don't have much tougher opponents, but they do have a 4 game set in Washington and play only 3 home games between now and July 4th.

 

If we're going to prove we really are in this race, we need to make hay now.

[Ennder]

After the all star break the first set of games is pretty soft too. August is pretty awful though so I hope we don't become big time buyers.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Not to be a reality check on the optimism, but I think in order to make the playoffs this year, the Brewers are going to have to win the NL Central. They are currently 6 games back of the 2nd wild card spot.

 

I don't doubt that the Brewers look like at least the 2nd best team in the NL Central this season which is exciting, but do Brewer fans really believe that they will be able to hold of the defending WS Champ Chicago Cubs for the next 3 and 1/2 months to win the division?

[jerichoholicninja]

Not to be a reality check on the optimism, but I think in order to make the playoffs this year, the Brewers are going to have to win the NL Central. They are currently 6 games back of the 2nd wild card spot.

 

I don't doubt that the Brewers look like at least the 2nd best team in the NL Central this season which is exciting, but do Brewer fans really believe that they will be able to hold of the defending WS Champ Chicago Cubs for the next 3 and 1/2 months to win the division?

 

Brewers and Cubs seem pretty similar this year: decent offense and suspect pitching. I don't care if they're the defending whatever of anything, 2016 has come and gone. If Stearns can find a reliever or two that doesn't blow chunks, this is somehow Milwaukee's division to lose. Which they probably will and to the Cardinals.

[EauClaireNWL]

I still think a lot of us expect at some point for the light to magically flick on for the Cubs and they'll start running away with this thing. If we were playing in any other division, we'd be 5+ games back like the Wild Card. I figured this team had the potential to play .500 baseball and they've been generally sticking to that which still puts us ahead of the rebuilding curve by at least a full season.

 

I guess the biggest fear would be Stearns being a heavy buyer at the deadline when it's just prudent to stay the course and continue to let the young guys develop. Thankfully nothing I've really seen from him in his roster moves would make me think he'd do that.

[pacopete4]

Brewers fans fearful of winning. Imagine that. I guess it's to be expected with such a dreadful franchise history. This division can be won. I don't care about other divisions. I don't care about the Cubs last seasons World Series. The Brewers shouldn't either.

[Patrick425]

I'm more surprised at the Cubs record than I am the Brewer's record. While I didn't quite expect the Brewers to be 3 games above .500 on June 15th, I would have expected them to have to be at least 10 games above .500 at this point in order to have a 2 game lead. If their bullpen was stronger and could have held on to some of those leads that were blown, they could have been 4 or 5 games in 1st.

[mertonmonk]

What are the biggest changes from last year to this year?

1B: Carter (lots of HRs, not much else) to Thames/Aguilar - big improvement.

2B: Gennett platoon to Villar - looked shaky early this season, but Villar is improving nicely. I'd call this a draw.

3B: Perez - Shaw - big improvement

RF: Having Santana play regularly has been a big improvement.

C: Maldonado is serviceable - Pina/Bandy - huge improvement.

Over all the offense is nicely improved and the defense is also better.

The starting pitching has been more consistent.

The bullpen is the area that has suffered the most, and it is the area most easily addressed. This can be addressed fairly easily before the playoffs, and this team has already played well against the best teams in MLB. It would be nice to have a lock-down ace starting pitcher, but in a best-of-7 series I like the chances our starting rotation gives us. Knebel has been lights out. Bridging the gap between starter and closer is the area that needs attention and this team could win a lot more games. The offense will score against any pitcher. This is a fun team to watch.

[adambr2]

Not fearful of winning, but I do personally think it's probably still the Cubs' division to lose. I just see too much talent on that side to not put together at least 85-90 wins over 162 games. The only way I can see a .500ish season is if their rotation really doesn't improve, which I think is unlikely. Even if they don't, they have the prospects to go out and fix that at the deadline.

 

I agree with Patrick that the Cubs being under . 500 at this point is a lot more surprising than us being 3 games over, and frankly I think our 1st place status has a lot more to do with that right now than us just suddenly being a team to beat.

 

With that said, they've defied my expectations to this point and I hope they continue to do so.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Brewers fans fearful of winning. Imagine that.

 

No one is fearful of winning, that's ridiculous. It's about planning and investing wisely. Many believe it better to plan and invest in the team 2-3 years down the line rather than sell some of the future to invest in this current team.

 

It's all about which team you think is more likely to win. Nothing is for certain, this year or in the future. But most would say the odds of fielding a true contender are higher in a couple years than it is right now.

[adambr2]

Brewers fans fearful of winning. Imagine that.

 

No one is fearful of winning, that's ridiculous. It's about planning and investing wisely. Many believe it better to plan and invest in the team 2-3 years down the line rather than sell some of the future to invest in this current team.

 

It's all about which team you think is more likely to win. Nothing is for certain, this year or in the future. But most would say the odds of fielding a true contender are higher in a couple years than it is right now.

 

I agree with most of this. The future is still brighter than the present here. Now if you can improve the present without sacrificing the future, by all means go for it. I'm fine with trading Reed, Cooper, Wren, even Cordell. But there's no way I'd be looking to sell off top prospects, or even any highly promising pitching talent like Burnes or Bickford, without getting controlled young pitching in return.

[Ennder]

Not to be a reality check on the optimism, but I think in order to make the playoffs this year, the Brewers are going to have to win the NL Central. They are currently 6 games back of the 2nd wild card spot.

 

I don't doubt that the Brewers look like at least the 2nd best team in the NL Central this season which is exciting, but do Brewer fans really believe that they will be able to hold of the defending WS Champ Chicago Cubs for the next 3 and 1/2 months to win the division?

 

 

That Rockies team is going to collapse in the 2nd half. The Wild Card is still open. Too many young pitchers who tend to wear down later in seasons.

[pacopete4]

Brewers fans fearful of winning. Imagine that.

 

No one is fearful of winning, that's ridiculous. It's about planning and investing wisely. Many believe it better to plan and invest in the team 2-3 years down the line rather than sell some of the future to invest in this current team.

 

It's all about which team you think is more likely to win. Nothing is for certain, this year or in the future. But most would say the odds of fielding a true contender are higher in a couple years than it is right now.

 

 

I really wouldn't try to speak for all when you claim it's ridiculous. I can't tell you how many people I've heard say oh it's great that they're winning but what about the rebuild or how does this effect the rebuild? Like they can't co-exist. It's nonesense on every thought. There are only so many spots for all these players. Just because you were to send talent away doesn't stop you from still acquiring it. If this team is in the hunt in a month and does nothing about their bullpen it is a damn shame. We make every excuse for why the Cubs aren't winning etc.. but this Brewers team is winning without Braun, their best hitter. They played with a gimpy Thames and a missing Shaw. Villar hasn't been he same as a year ago and is now hurt. Broxton was worthless for over a month. The list goes on and on and yet they keep fighting and staying upfront. Just about every time we want to call it a season on these guys and say see, they are who we thought they were, they go win a handful of games and shut people up.

[MrTPlush]

We have held them off for what? 2.5 months. So why can't we. See the great thing about the Cubs is so many players are coming off big seasons and/or are expensive so they won't try to improve those guys. You could say they that gives them a good chance to rebound, but their rotation is old. Very possible those guys don't really rebound anywhere close to last years numbers.

[rcc]

Joe Maddon in NYC with the Cubs playing the Mets was on the Charlie Rose Show. When Charlie asked who would be in the WS this year Maddon said the Cubs and maybe the Yankees. Maddon seems to think the Cubs will head back to the WS.

 

If the Brewers had a good bullpen I would feel so much better about their chances of staying in first place. But that might change with Stearns addressing it finally.

 

We shall see.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Point is simply that every Brewers fan wants to win, they aren't fearful of it. If anything the franchise's history makes us more starving than other fans for it. Many fans are fearful of giving up prospects that could help build a true top-5 NL playoff contending team in a couple years. But they are fearful of that because they want to win badly, and think 2-3 years down the line is a better target for it.

 

This team could certainly make the playoffs this year, and another bullpen arm would help. I'd agree with many that I'm ok with trading some lower prospects for one if we are still contending. But I'd argue that even with another arm, the Cubs are still a better team and more likely to win the division, the Cardinals less so but still as likely as the Brewers, and the Brewers are already a ways out of the WC.

 

So trade prospects for a shot at what many think would still be a less than likely division title, or keep them for a team in 2-3 years that will hopefully have more of a true top-5 NL talent base? I'd vote for the latter, but not because I'm afraid of winning.

[Ennder]

I definitely think the Brewers best chance for a playoff is for some young pitching to come up and carry them.

[tmwiese55]

Yea a Guerra last year or Jungmann the year before type hot streak from a young new pitcher could make the difference. Or if out of the pen just one can flip to being reliable so at least 8th and 9th are covered.

[owbc]

Here we are 1.5 months after this thread started and this group of misfits is still somehow in first place!

 

Maddon has to say the Cubs will be in the WS of course, but their slow start is more than just a blip now and their win projections have declined considerably. Maybe 86 or 87 wins will get you the NL Central this year. If that's the case, the Brewers will have a serious shot.

[pacopete4]

The longer you let the inferior team hang around....

[DuWayne Steurer]

, but do Brewer fans really believe that they will be able to hold of the defending WS Champ Chicago Cubs for the next 3 and 1/2 months to win the division?

 

 

It doesn't matter what the Cubs did in 2016. Last year's standings, results, statistics, projections, whatever, have nothing to do with what happens this year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

One has to assume the Cubs will inevitably go on a run, but in order to do so they need to pitch better...you have to wonder if the workloads of Arrieta and Lester over the past few seasons have taken a toll, Lackey's just done, and Hendricks just isn't the 2nd coming of Maddux. They'll undoubtedly trade for a veteran starter.

 

Their lineup can score in bunches, but it can also be shut down with how much they swing and miss (similar to the Brewers). There have been several stretches where you think they've found their stride and will take off playing an extended stretch of 0.700 baseball, but they follow those 6-7 games stretches with a week of clunkers. They have warts offensively that are exposed when starting pitching is so uneven.

[BeerFan]

With our schedule before the all star break it is definitely possible that we could still be in first place at the break.

 

I still dont believe we can hold off the Cubs, but the talent gap really isnt that large and with some luck it is possible I guess.

 

Sent from my RS988 using Tapatalk

[Ennder]

Looking at teams that I think will really give us trouble.

 

3 Yankees

3 Rockies

3 Dodgers

4 Twins

6 Nationals

8 Cardinals

11 Cubs

 

We still have 19 games against the division rivals that tend to outplay us. It is a pretty scary schedule once we get out of June. Starting July 25th we play 38 of 61 games against teams that are probably better than us or teams that give us fits at least. Don't be surprised to see us stick around the playoff race until August and then fall out of it in a hurry. That is my personal expectation. I really hope it is wrong.

[MrTPlush]

The longer you let the inferior team hang around....

 

Exactly. The amount of games left progressively gets smaller and smaller. With that the chance to get lucky or have one hot streak carry you gets more possible. Over the course of 162 games would I pick the Brewers to out win the Cubs? Heck no. But it could happen over 2.5 months(proof of that already) and if August hits and we are still neck and neck why can't it happen again?

 

Now I still doubt it happens, but I think the potential is a lot more real than some make it. The Cubs will go on hot streak, but guess what we will too. They will also go on lengthy streaks of poor baseball just like we will. The thing that makes it possible is I don't think the Cubs are built this year to go on incredibly long streaks or avoid long slumps as a team. It will pull them down towards .500. Barring major moves I would expect the NL Central to be had with 86-92 wins. I don't think it will be won at 95+ which makes it anyone's game.