I Can't Believe the Standings

[moofis]

We haven't been talking about the Cardinals. They're a deep, well-designed team with no glaring weaknesses. Their hitters make hard contact. Their pitchers throw strikes. They have good young talent, and their declining stars, Wainwright and Neck Tatts, still have value.

 

We play basically a quarter of our games against the Cards and Cubs. That's going to make the WC very tough, because I'm pretty sure both of those teams are clearly better than we are. I'm in the camp that says this start is mainly getting me more pumped for next year. We need to figure out our rotation, and that's going to require some trial and error this year.

 

I should know better than to criticize the Cardinals, especially considering how frequently they've beaten up on the Brewers, but I don't think there's a lot of players that I'm scared of on that roster. You're right that they don't have many weaknesses, but I don't think they have a ton of above-average players either. There just doesn't seem like there's a lot of meat in that lineup, their staff is pretty average, and their bullpen leaves a bit to be desired. They are still more than likely better than we are, though, and they could still make the WC, but I have a feeling that if they do it will be because of other teams being underwhelming, rather than their team being so impressive.

[DocLuna7]

They could make a play for Quintana as well, but I think Sonny is more likely.

 

I've heard that the organization is high on him.

 

The Cubs even drafted him in the 27th round of 2008 draft out of high school but he didn't sign.

 

 

You may very well be correct but serious/non sarcastic question: do you have a source with the Cubs that told you that or something? I haven't seen that and am just wondering if you were privy to something that the rest of us aren't. Quite possible I also just missed something as well.

[MDCrew]

Lots of good points being made. We are only at May 3rd so lots of baseball left to be played. For the Brewers to be a game out and the divison all within 2 games it will keep things interesting the next few months if no one has pulled away or fallen too far out. If Milwaukee can be 3-5 games back a month from now that will go a long way in keeping the casual fan interested. I still think the Cubs win the division by about 10 games. I think the Cardinals will finish second but after that I think it's up in the air. As for the rest of the NL the Nats look pretty solid, but the rest of the East is pretty average with the Mets being pretty disappointing. The West is up for grabs as SF looks pretty bad. Do the Brewers have enough SP and bull pen help to compete for a WC spot I'm not sure but it will be fun to watch.

[reillymcshane]

I have a feeling the Cubs are gonna make a play to trade for a Starting Pitcher before the deadline.

Starting pitching depth was always a concern for Chicago. They still have a pretty loaded farm system, so yes, I bet the make a move at some point. Might not be until the deadline - but if they need a guy - they'll get him.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Games have been played, players have played, the standings are not fake, neither are the numbers the players are putting up. It's what has happened.

You're gonna make me cry... What poem is that from? Is that James Joyce?

[logan82]

The numbers tell us what happened but they may or may not indicate the actual talent of the team.

[Ennder]

Games have been played, players have played, the standings are not fake, neither are the numbers the players are putting up. It's what has happened.

 

Sure. But this far into the season pre season projections are as meaningful as what has happened when deciding what is going to happen in the future. I think it is like the last week in May when what really has happened actually becomes meaningful to the future. Results don't always match the process going on behind the results.

[brewcrewdue80]

Cincy has been lucky in the Pitching faced. Running in to #3,4,5 in a lot of series especially Pittsburgh who've they've dominated due. They will continue to fall down the standings. Their record is no where near their actual talent.

 

St. Louis has the best young pitching to work with an old Ace. Martinez, Wainwright, Wacha, and Lynn are studs that will win them many games if their offense can keep up.

 

Pittsburgh is suffering through the Marte suspension and McCutchen slide. Slow beginnings to Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow. They are a better team than their record and Marte returns mid season will add a lot to that team.

 

Cubs. They are finding out the mistake that it is to have Lackey Starting and signing Brett Anderson to start. Then you have Arrieta and Hendriks regressing their numbers that were just silly for 2016. The Cubs will have to address a SP in the deadline. Still their overall Bats on the field with trio of Lester, Arrieta, and Hendriks make them too talented to lose as often as they've had. Chicago got Pittsburgh's top 3 starters unlike the Reds thus their 2-4 record against.

 

And then you have us. Living off of Thames start vs Reds. The catchers duo outperforming any Catcher in baseball. The bats in our lineup have thus been outstanding with everyone contributing in the HR department scoring runs. There is more in the tank for 4 guys and you just know there are all going to go through a stretch that no team wants to face during. We are outscoring bad pitching.

 

This will all change when a team starts playing .650 baseball and a team or two starts playing .450 baseball. With the others sticking around .500.

 

Put it this way. Thames has as many HRs as Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo combined. The Cubs will hit more HRs too talented not to.

[pacopete4]

Cincy has been lucky in the Pitching faced. Running in to #3,4,5 in a lot of series especially Pittsburgh who've they've dominated due. They will continue to fall down the standings. Their record is no where near their actual talent.

 

St. Louis has the best young pitching to work with an old Ace. Martinez, Wainwright, Wacha, and Lynn are studs that will win them many games if their offense can keep up.

 

Pittsburgh is suffering through the Marte suspension and McCutchen slide. Slow beginnings to Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow. They are a better team than their record and Marte returns mid season will add a lot to that team.

 

Cubs. They are finding out the mistake that it is to have Lackey Starting and signing Brett Anderson to start. Then you have Arrieta and Hendriks regressing their numbers that were just silly for 2016. The Cubs will have to address a SP in the deadline. Still their overall Bats on the field with trio of Lester, Arrieta, and Hendriks make them too talented to lose as often as they've had. Chicago got Pittsburgh's top 3 starters unlike the Reds thus their 2-4 record against.

 

And then you have us. Living off of Thames start vs Reds. The catchers duo outperforming any Catcher in baseball. The bats in our lineup have thus been outstanding with everyone contributing in the HR department scoring runs. There is more in the tank for 4 guys and you just know there are all going to go through a stretch that no team wants to face during. We are outscoring bad pitching.

 

This will all change when a team starts playing .650 baseball and a team or two starts playing .450 baseball. With the others sticking around .500.

 

Put it this way. Thames has as many HRs as Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo combined. The Cubs will hit more HRs too talented not to.

 

This could happen. Or maybe it won't.

[monty57]

The bats in our lineup have thus been outstanding with everyone contributing in the HR department scoring runs.

 

We've had Pina (.986 OPS), Bandy (1.020), and Thames (1.207) outperforming, Braun (.950), Shaw (.847) and Perez (.855) playing well, but not out of the realm of expectation. Santana is doing okay (.774), while Arcia (.666), Villar (.625), Broxton (.594), Aguilar (.541) and Franklin (.344) could all improve. Kirk N (.473) was also pathetic before he was demoted.

 

We could certainly see the catcher and first base positions cool off, but that could be offset with improvements elsewhere. Overall, I think we have a pretty good offense that should get better when Brinson is brought up. We just need better pitching if we want to believe we can be a real playoff contender. Hopefully some of our current guys "swim" and our prospects make good replacements for those who "sink."

 

I agree with what seems to be the general consensus on the Cubs: they're very talented, but last year was ridiculous with nearly everyone performing at their peak, and almost no injuries. They should win the division, but I think they'll be closer to 90 wins than 100, and then they lose Arrieta, Anderson, Davis and Lackey to free agency without much pitching in the organization to replace them. If Hendricks proves to be more of a middle-to-back of the rotation guy instead of the Cy Young caliber pitcher he was last year and with an aging Lester getting a lot of money, their reign could be shorter than a lot figured it would be.

[Ennder]

St. Louis has the best young pitching to work with an old Ace. Martinez, Wainwright, Wacha, and Lynn are studs that will win them many games if their offense can keep up.

 

Well Wainwright isn't an ace anymore. Leake is 29 and Lynn is 30 so not exactly young. Wacha looks good this year and Martinez is a solid #2. I don't think the Cardinals rotation holds up this year either. Lynn and Leake both scream regression is coming.

[FVBrewerFan]

We are near the equivalent of 3 games into the NFL season. If all teams in a division were 2-1 or 1-2, what does it mean? Almost nothing.

 

But in both sports, it doesn't stop fans from reading way too much into it.

[superfly]

We are near the equivalent of 3 games into the NFL season. If all teams in a division were 2-1 or 1-2, what does it mean? Almost nothing.

 

But in both sports, it doesn't stop fans from reading way too much into it.

 

Vikings started 5-0 last year, and we know where that ended up (Lol). Anything can happen.

[logan82]

To be fair if we were looking at it from a football perspective all team finish between 9-6 and 6-9. Win percentages are way more bunched up in baseball than football.

[TURBO]

We are near the equivalent of 3 games into the NFL season. If all teams in a division were 2-1 or 1-2, what does it mean? Almost nothing.

 

But in both sports, it doesn't stop fans from reading way too much into it.

 

buzz-kill

 

[dlk9s]

As I write this, we are 18-16, .5 games back of Cincy (18-15), and 1.5 games behind St. Louis (19-14).

 

Expected W/L, though, says we should in first place by .5 games!

[Dead Simmons]

I STILL can't believe this division. I'm old enough to know that repeating as WS champs is rare. I believe in the NL the last to do it was the Big Red Machine. In spite of that I was still convinced the Cubs would do it.

 

Now I'm starting to doubt it. All those young guys batting sub-Mendoza in mid May! Arietta and Hendricks looking human. Maddon sticking with Schwarber at lead off because of cybermetrics!

 

Is it reasonable to scratch the Bucs off for the year? (Polonco went down to injury yesterday)

 

I get the Reds' games and I'm convinced they're legit. But for the long haul?

 

I haven't seen many Brewer games so far but I would be lying if I said I wasn't shocked that you are ahead of the Cubs, and I'm so down on the Cardinal FO and manager that it clouds my natural fan optimism.

 

What's your take at this juncture ?

[Dragonbait]

At what point of the season do we start thinking, "Hey now... something is happening?"

 

I'm thinking Memorial Day for, "ok, its getting VERY interesting..."

Father's day for, "Ok, now its real"

and 4th of July for, "WS or bust!!!"

[MrTPlush]

Last year was the golden year for them Cubs in this competitive stretch in my opinion. They will turn it around to some degree and I fully expect them to make the playoffs, but they aren't all that special so far.

[FVBrewerFan]

Since this is not the "optimistic" thread, I am free to say this. July 4th is WAY too early to declare WS or bust. That's only (more or less) the halfway point of the season. I've seen teams collapse in the last couple weeks, let alone the last three months.

 

I wouldn't write off the Cubs by any means. 3/4 of the season left, just way too early to make any conclusions.

[owbc]

Projecting at a 1/3 chance at the playoffs with a somewhat favorable schedule over the next month. Tons of depth and potential players at AAA that could supplement the MLB roster down the stretch.

 

But the pitching is not likely to get any better without help. It will be interesting to see if they consider trading some of the offensive depth for pitching depth.

[Dead Simmons]

Last year was the golden year for them Cubs in this competitive stretch in my opinion. They will turn it around to some degree and I fully expect them to make the playoffs, but they aren't all that special so far.

I can't agree with that. The WC's could both come from the West. There just ain't enough whipping boys in the Central. Four teams close in talent beating on each other all year! Even the Pirates are liable to play .500 ball.

 

The same scenario is playing out in the AL Central where at 5 games back the Royals are that division's Pirates.

[homer]

Since this is not the "optimistic" thread, I am free to say this. July 4th is WAY too early to declare WS or bust. That's only (more or less) the halfway point of the season. I've seen teams collapse in the last couple weeks, let alone the last three months.

 

I wouldn't write off the Cubs by any means. 3/4 of the season left, just way too early to make any conclusions.

 

I read somewhere that the Cubs had a stretch of 20 - 25 last year. No way they should be written off.

[MrTPlush]

I guess I don't really see the negativity towards the pitching. If this offense is going to excel then we don't need that great of pitching. The pitching has been fine. Will it continue or get better to offset some potential offensive regression? I could see it.

 

This team has played like a better version of the 2010 team that won 77 games. This team has a notably better pitching staff(and for now a more productive offense). Not sure about defense, but I'd guess this one has a better defense just looking at it face value.

 

Right now it has played like and looks like a legitimate contender. I agree better pitcher would make that a much easier thing to imagine, but I don't think it has been as terrible as people are making it out to be.

[Dead Simmons]

At what point of the season do we start thinking, "Hey now... something is happening?"

 

I'm thinking Memorial Day for, "ok, its getting VERY interesting..."

Father's day for, "Ok, now its real"

and 4th of July for, "WS or bust!!!"

 

In this month 4 of the 5 teams have taken their turn in 1st. and there's no sign of anybody running away with the division so I concur that "It's getting VERY interesting"

 

I will say this: That Cub team we saw last year is gone, never to be seen again. Arietta and Hendricks ain't having another career year along with the many phenoms hitting .300 with power. The defense is sporadic as well. Biggest change is having bad route, noodle arm Jon Jay in CF. I don't think Schwarber will end up sub-mendosa, but he has proved to be human.

 

(of course, they could still win the division)