Padding Feliz' numbers

[liveforoctober]

So I will start this out by acknowledging this might be the most asinine thing you hear today, but I wanted to hear a few viewpoints and discussion around the idea.

 

We signed Feliz to be our closer … but also because he could be a good to possibly great trade chip this summer if he performs. So my question revolves around doing what is best to maximize his 2017 resume leading into trade season.

 

There are two parts to this question. First, a team will only trade for a bullpen arm/closer if they think he is effective. What is effective? Obviously getting guys out, striking guys out, pitch velocity, pitch movement, etc.. but are MLB GM’s/scouts beyond digging deep into an ERA or exactly WHO that pitcher is striking out and when?

 

The reason I ask that is to set up this part .. given Feliz’ start, would it benefit the Brewers to ‘cherry pick’ a few spots in games where we can get Feliz an inning against the 6-7-8 of a lineup and theoretically an easy inning, to pad his numbers a little? If his ERA at the all-star break will hypothetically be north of 4 with ~35 innings pitched.. wouldn't it be very beneficial if the Brewers can slip in an extra 7-9 innings of 3 h, 1 r, 10 k or something to pad those numbers .. could that be the deciding factor in a trade being made?

 

Most of your baseball minds are better than mine is. I just wanted to hear your thoughts on the idea.

[3and2Fastball]

That plan would fool the casual fan, fool the hardcore fan who is just being lazy, fool the pundits on talk radio & newspapers, but would never fool an MLB front office. They have more computer analysis than we can even begin to imagine

 

Of course, if Dave Stewart was still the GM of the Diamondbacks? Maybe!

[MrTPlush]

You would take him out of the closers role killing the majority of the value you could hope for.

[pacopete4]

If anything, you do the opposite and hope he catches fire. You put him against the Bryant's/Rizzo's of the MLB as much as you can and hope he is just lights out until the beginning of July. If he is, you hit the jackpot.

[liveforoctober]

You would take him out of the closers role killing the majority of the value you could hope for.

 

Not really at all. He would still be our closer but when he hasn't pitched in 2 or 3 games and we are down 8-1 to someone ... slipping him the 7th inning against the bottom of an order isn't removing him from that closer's role, it is just adding an inning to his total.

[MrTPlush]

You would take him out of the closers role killing the majority of the value you could hope for.

 

Not really at all. He would still be our closer but when he hasn't pitched in 2 or 3 games and we are down 8-1 to someone ... slipping him the 7th inning against the bottom of an order isn't removing him from that closer's role, it is just adding an inning to his total.

 

Maybe if one just looked at basic stats, but scouting will sniff out that plan faster than you could imagine.

[MadScientist]

You would take him out of the closers role killing the majority of the value you could hope for.

 

Not really at all. He would still be our closer but when he hasn't pitched in 2 or 3 games and we are down 8-1 to someone ... slipping him the 7th inning against the bottom of an order isn't removing him from that closer's role, it is just adding an inning to his total.

 

Sure the 'get him some work' innings won't hurt his value, but at that point may as well let him pitch the 9th (or 8th if on the road) as usual. Even the heart of the order isn't going to be going full out in a blow out, so no real need to worry about who he faces.

 

Getting him save opportunities and having him convert is the best way to increase his value. ERA is of less concern if it doesn't lead to blown saves.

[monty57]

He's 7-for-8 in save opportunities with 12K:4BB in 11.2 IP and a 1.03 WHIP.

 

He's effective when it matters, strikes out more than one per inning and doesn't walk a lot. His ERA is high because he had one blow up game when he gave up 4 ER in an inning against a very good team in the Cubs. GM's will not worry about that (and the resulting high ERA). If he keeps pitching well in save opportunities, he'll be valuable at the trade deadline.

[trwi7]

We aren't getting much for Feliz anyways. He's a 1 year contract who hasn't been the same since he got hurt. His value on the trade market is minimal.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The problem here is looking at small samples and going with the mindset (especially with relievers) that results = performance.

 

There's a ton of noise in small samples, and (again, especially with pitchers, especially with relievers), you can perform well, and get poor results. You can throw the ball well, hit your spots, and sometimes guys just hit the ball. In small samples, things like ERA, WHIP, etc, are poor indicators of "performance". You need to look at far more advanced metrics (which good GM's do) to indicate how well a guy is performing, and get an indicator of future performance, and hopefully future results.

[Never Outhustled]

We aren't getting ugh for Feliz anyways. He's a 1 year contract who hasn't been the same since he got hurt. His value on the trade market is minimal.

 

He throws 98 and strikes people out. He'll have plenty of value, assuming he starts limiting home runs, which is easy to expect considering his peripheral numbers.

[OnTheBlack]

We aren't getting ugh for Feliz anyways. He's a 1 year contract who hasn't been the same since he got hurt. His value on the trade market is minimal.

 

He hasn't been the same because he's been hurt. He's healthy now and throwing harder than he ever has(so far).

 

If he keeps throwing well I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect the Brewers to get something of consequence for him. High leverage power arms are in high demand around the trade deadline.

 

As for getting him easy outs, I don't think that's a realistic approach. You often see relievers giving up runs in games that are blowouts. Especially pitchers who are used to pitching in tight spots. I would just hope he can stay healthy. If he does that I'm sure there will be some teams that are interested. And if he can have a Zac Britton like 3 months until then...all the better.

[danzig6767]

Watching Feliz so far, his biggest problem seems to be a lack of ability to command his slider.

 

To often he either hangs that pitch and it gets hit hard or it's off the plate so much that hitters easily take it for a ball, leaving him behind in the count and the batter sitting on a fastball. Yea he throws hard, but many big league hitters are used to even 95-97mph fastballs if they know it coming and in turn can hit the ball hard if it's over the middle of the plate.

 

Look at Knebel in comparison. He has shown great command of his curve so far. This allows him to get ahead with it and throw it at various times in the count, leaving hitters guessing and thus much harder to sit waiting on his 95-97mph fastball.