Pitching staff adjustments?

[FVBrewerFan]

Hear what you're saying, but it's no secret Hader has struggled with command. Maybe that's an indictment of the Brewers' development folks, maybe not. If it was that easy, all the top pitchers would have command of all pitches and be generally awesome.

 

I don't see it as a fail for Hader to become a late inning reliever. The game has changed, and it's why contenders are over-paying for these type of guys at the deadline. Next time they're a 90 win team, the bullpen is going to have to a big part of that. Odds are really slim they will have a couple aces at the top of the rotation, so they'll need to do it by having 5 solid starters and an outstanding bullpen. Knebel, Barnes, Hader would be a great start in that direction.

[Crash2303]

SEASON / LAST 30 DAYS

WHIP OPS / WHIP OPS

Peralta- 1.71 .892 / 2.77 1.003

Torres - 1.55 .824 / 1.85 1.023

Drake - 1.45 .795 / 1.35 .818

Suter - 1.57 .794 / 1.35 .764

Espino- 1.18 .697 / 1.15 .722

Hughes- 1.33 .754 / 0.91 .545

 

As everyone acknowledges, Peralta has big time tools. however, he is a mess right now. and the likelihood that he is with this team next year, even if he pulls things together is slim with his arbitration $tatus. it is time to DFA him. maybe he doesn't get claimed and he can fix things down in Colorado and come back up later in the summer to help the team (hopefully) in a pennant race. maybe you let him try one last time after he gets back from the DL, but looking at his history, what evidence would suggest that he is going to be any better? it's too bad we won't get anything for him, but he needs to go.

 

Torres had a solid year last year and has enjoyed previous moderate MLB success. however, he doesn't have high end stuff, and over the last month, even including his recent 3IP no ER, he has been atrocious. maybe you let him ride this [sarcasm]hot streak[/sarcasm]. but, like Blazek last year (after his nice 2015) Torres is getting killed out there and its time to try someone else.

 

Suter & Espino haven't had enough chance at the MLB level this year to see what we've got. I think both soft tossers are at least pitching better than Torres & Peralta and have earned a chance at a further extended look, both with their AAA performances and the limited albeit inconsistent performance they've showed thus far in the majors.

 

Drake- gotta love those punchouts 11.6 K/9 this year. aside from that- has been replacement level- classic AAAA reliever- dominant in AAA. i'd put him 3rd to go behind Peralta & Torres.

 

Hughes- i wanted him gone a while ago, but he really turned things around in June and bumped his overall numbers to almost respectable. i guess, he's bought himself some more time.

 

Not sure how long Hader will last until he can reign in his control, but i like giving him a shot and building his MLB experience as Colorado was brutal to him and AA did him little good- like pitching to grade schoolers for him.

 

WHO's LEFT?

solving the bullpen within the system is a preferred option as we don't have to give up any assets (though if we don't we'll probably lose some in the rule V draft anyway). the thing is, the only healthy guys we have left are probably all replacement level- no one to really moves the needle for the team. Torres & Peralta have to go, so that means two more guys need to come up. here are the best realistic options remaining:

 

1) Woodruff - disappointing that he got injured just as he got his call up. however, he might be coming off the DL soon, and when he does, i'd give him one start then bring him up.

 

The following four guys i think would all produce similar results. one could argue that none of them are the solution to fixing our bullpen woes this season or for the future. with that said, at the very least they are replacement level guys which is better than what Torres & Peralta have been giving us. and at the best, they have shown the ability to succeed at times. either way- i'd give them all a short leash.

 

2) Wang - time to give him another shot. has produced good results in Colorado despite unspectacular peripherals although he does hold guys to a pretty low OPS- and that's something, especially in Colorado. let's see what he can do in the majors.

 

3) Cravy- now that he's back from the DL- he needs another chance with the Brew Crew. he has paid his price for his spring training insolence and should be back in the show. all he has done is produce great results as a reliever both in the minors and majors.

 

4) Jungmann- the tale of two Jungmanns. he has shown the ability to dominate at the MLB level, but has also shown that he can be terrible against, well anybody. who is he today? well, since being called up to AAA, he has been great. can he replicate the success he had his first 16 starts in 2014 (2.42 ERA)? i'd like to find out.

 

5) Blazek- interestingly has been pitching better once that moved him back to the rotation out of need. very similar to the end of 2014 when they did the same thing, which led to his breakout 2015 season. but, i don't see him breaking the brewers rotation, even if Garza is dealt. and there's little to suggest that he's reclaimed his 2015 magic- namely that heater.

 

 

THE WILD CARDS - i'd be inclined to cycle through the above players first, albeit with a short leash, but considering the following guys have the potential to be better than any of the previous four above, it could be a higher risk/higher reward to bring them up instead. Is Stearns a gambler? seeing what he was inclined to do with potential high end guys like Hader and Woodruff and sticking with Peralta, it looks like he is.

 

6) T-Will - after all the injuries- would love for him to just enjoy some modicum of success in Biloxi this year without any extra strain/pressure of amping up for the major leagues. let him come in next spring and compete for a bullpen role- i'd bet he gets one. with that said, as bad as the relief core has been, and as good as he's been...it's tempting not to think about it. oh, heck- give him a chance.

 

7) Lopez - with his recent move to the bullpen- looks like bringing him up is the next step. but, let's let him get his footing in this new role and build some confidence as he's been so inconsistent at AA. as others have mentioned- his fastball/curveball combo is enticing to think about in Milwaukee.

 

HOW DID WE GET HERE? - a last ditch option is anyone else in the system. if it comes to this, i think we can safely say our season has been lost. you never know- Wilkerson could rise up to the occasion or Barbosa finally figure out how to use his enormous frame with that said- i hope it doesn't come to that.

[FVBrewerFan]

Hughes- i wanted him gone a while ago, but he really turned things around in June and bumped his overall numbers to almost respectable. i guess, he's bought himself some more time.

 

And the chances the same thing happens to Torres and Drake are equal or better than the chances the likes of Wang, Cravy, and Blazek being any better.

[Ennder]

With the tiny samples of innings RP get in partial years you pretty much have to go 100% by peripherals ignore all else because it is just noise at this point.

 

Barnes, Hughes and Drake have all shown major league viable peripherals, albeit pretty low end skills. Torres is a bit behind them but you stick with him due to his past most likely. Peralta has no business being in the majors pretty much. I'm not a big fan of Wang's but at least he keeps the walks down which means maybe he can find some sort of role on the team. Cravy's AAA peripherals are just awful, no thanks on him until he gets some control back.

[Crash2303]

Hughes- i wanted him gone a while ago, but he really turned things around in June and bumped his overall numbers to almost respectable. i guess, he's bought himself some more time.

 

And the chances the same thing happens to Torres and Drake are equal or better than the chances the likes of Wang, Cravy, and Blazek being any better.

 

very true, except that was earlier in the year with Hughes, when the team was in a more wait and see approach- not really knowing what we had as a team. We are in a much more urgent mode (of course not short-cutting the rebuild process). At this point there isn't as much patience for back-end guys without huge upside like Hughes, Torres & Drake. Ironically, I thought your post in another thread regarding Franklin articulated this well- and the same applies to the bullpen.

 

 

Erratic ABs and small sample got him. Who knows, he could have been red hot the 2nd half of the year. But that's the way it goes for the 25th man on the roster, produce when you have the chance or be gone.

[LouisEly]

Cravy's AAA peripherals are just awful, no thanks on him until he gets some control back.

Have you looked at his home/road splits?

[monty57]

Hughes wasn't really pitching bad, they just changed the rules on him. For all of his life, he lived in the bottom of the zone. This year, he was doing exactly what always worked for him, but the pitches were being called balls. He then altered his approach, and it has been working for him. Hopefully he can be a positive for the bullpen going forward.

[jerichoholicninja]

Hughes wasn't really pitching bad, they just changed the rules on him. For all of his life, he lived in the bottom of the zone. This year, he was doing exactly what always worked for him, but the pitches were being called balls. He then altered his approach, and it has been working for him. Hopefully he can be a positive for the bullpen going forward.

 

BA always talks about changing the strike zone but as it's been pointed out to me that rule was never approved.

[Ennder]

Hughes wasn't really pitching bad, they just changed the rules on him. For all of his life, he lived in the bottom of the zone. This year, he was doing exactly what always worked for him, but the pitches were being called balls. He then altered his approach, and it has been working for him. Hopefully he can be a positive for the bullpen going forward.

 

BA always talks about changing the strike zone but as it's been pointed out to me that rule was never approved.

 

The umps were told to call it tighter though I believe. The umps were being more generous than the rules on the low pitch in the past.

[Ennder]

Cravy's AAA peripherals are just awful, no thanks on him until he gets some control back.

Have you looked at his home/road splits?

 

I'm not sure going off of a 14 IP split is really going to be that meaningful. He has had 2 absolute disaster games and they both happened at home, who is to say one couldn't have happened on the road and this is just sequencing.

[LouisEly]

Cravy's AAA peripherals are just awful, no thanks on him until he gets some control back.

Have you looked at his home/road splits?

 

I'm not sure going off of a 14 IP split is really going to be that meaningful. He has had 2 absolute disaster games and they both happened at home, who is to say one couldn't have happened on the road and this is just sequencing.

So going off of 26.2 IP is meaningful, but 14.1 isn't. Ok...

[Ennder]

So going off of 26.2 IP is meaningful, but 14.1 isn't. Ok...

 

 

Roughly twice as meaningful. When you take an already too small sample and slice it up even more you are just making it less meaningful. I don't see how that isn't clear.

 

Take Zach Davies this year, he has been horrible at Miller Park but if I had to put money on it I'd say it is just random sequencing because he's had a number of disaster starts and most of them happened to be at home. In 2016 he was much better at home. With pitching random sequencing is just going to happen.

[CheezWizHed]

Hughes wasn't really pitching bad, they just changed the rules on him. For all of his life, he lived in the bottom of the zone. This year, he was doing exactly what always worked for him, but the pitches were being called balls. He then altered his approach, and it has been working for him. Hopefully he can be a positive for the bullpen going forward.

 

BA always talks about changing the strike zone but as it's been pointed out to me that rule was never approved.

 

You mention that to the umps. The rule might not have changed, but it sure seems like the umps did. Davies also seems to have struggled a bit due to this. I'm not blaming all of his struggles here, but certainly a few games that I've seen, he is getting squeezed at the low end. Forcing him to elevate his pitches is a recipe for disaster.

[CheezWizHed]

Hughes wasn't really pitching bad, they just changed the rules on him. For all of his life, he lived in the bottom of the zone. This year, he was doing exactly what always worked for him, but the pitches were being called balls. He then altered his approach, and it has been working for him. Hopefully he can be a positive for the bullpen going forward.

 

BA always talks about changing the strike zone but as it's been pointed out to me that rule was never approved.

 

You mention that to the umps. The rule might not have changed, but it sure seems like the umps did. Davies also seems to have struggled a bit due to this. I'm not blaming all of his struggles here, but certainly a few games that I've seen, he is getting squeezed at the low end. Forcing him to elevate his pitches is a recipe for disaster.

[dacbrewers]

So going off of 26.2 IP is meaningful, but 14.1 isn't. Ok...

 

 

Roughly twice as meaningful. When you take an already too small sample and slice it up even more you are just making it less meaningful. I don't see how that isn't clear.

 

Take Zach Davies this year, he has been horrible at Miller Park but if I had to put money on it I'd say it is just random sequencing because he's had a number of disaster starts and most of them happened to be at home. In 2016 he was much better at home. With pitching random sequencing is just going to happen.

 

Most of the blowup innings for all pitchers in Colorado Springs happen when the wind is blowing 10 to 30 mph out of the park...yes random sequencing.

[Ennder]

Most of the blowup innings for all pitchers in Colorado Springs happen when the wind is blowing 10 to 30 mph out of the park...yes random sequencing.

 

The wind blowing out is making him walk everyone? That has been the real problem is the walks. If he just gave up a few HRs that is completely different. Of course that park hurts some but he has had success in it in the past and he has never been this good on the road before. Not to mention most of the PCL is hitter friendly, not just that park. There is almost certainly some sequencing at play here as well. I can't believe you guys are nitpicking this.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hughes- i wanted him gone a while ago, but he really turned things around in June and bumped his overall numbers to almost respectable. i guess, he's bought himself some more time.

 

And the chances the same thing happens to Torres and Drake are equal or better than the chances the likes of Wang, Cravy, and Blazek being any better.

 

There's quality proven bullpen arms available on the trade market. Feliz proved to be a bust, but that doesn't mean they should shy away from adding a quality late inning guy even if requires spending more money than they budgeted for last winter. That budget was based on the assumption that the Cubs were a lock.

[reillymcshane]

High altitude has some definite effects on a ball.

 

For pitchers, a breaking ball will break less. For balls hit into play, they go further than a similarly hit ball at other parks. The Rockies website claims a ball hit at Coors Field will travel 9% further - but I think that was pre-humidor days.

 

You certainly get a lot of high winds in Colorado - I lived there for five years, so I experienced it. But I think the altitude - and the effects on the ball - are the big thing.

 

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/col/ballpark/history.jsp

[monty57]

Hughes- i wanted him gone a while ago, but he really turned things around in June and bumped his overall numbers to almost respectable. i guess, he's bought himself some more time.

 

And the chances the same thing happens to Torres and Drake are equal or better than the chances the likes of Wang, Cravy, and Blazek being any better.

 

There's quality proven bullpen arms available on the trade market. Feliz proved to be a bust, but that doesn't mean they should shy away from adding a quality late inning guy even if requires spending more money than they budgeted for last winter. That budget was based on the assumption that the Cubs were a lock.

 

The problem is that quality arms on the trade market will cost more than money. Last year, we got San Francisco's top pitching prospect for Will Smith. This offseason, we got Travis Shaw and some good-looking prospects for Thornburg. The Yankees revamped their farm with two trades last year. Relievers are at an all-time high cost in trade. Selling a few of them is a big part of the reason the franchise is in as good of shape as it is right now.

 

If we could get someone as a salary dump, that'd be great, but I don't think the market will allow for that at this time. To get a quality bullpen arm, we would need to give up some very talented prospects and I doubt Stearns is going to do that at this point. I guess a Villar trade isn't out of the question.

[LouisEly]

Most of the blowup innings for all pitchers in Colorado Springs happen when the wind is blowing 10 to 30 mph out of the park...yes random sequencing.

 

The wind blowing out is making him walk everyone? That has been the real problem is the walks. If he just gave up a few HRs that is completely different. Of course that park hurts some but he has had success in it in the past and he has never been this good on the road before. Not to mention most of the PCL is hitter friendly, not just that park. There is almost certainly some sequencing at play here as well. I can't believe you guys are nitpicking this.

Have you ever pitched, or done any athletic activity that requires balance, in 20-30 mph winds?

 

I have a hard time staying balanced on the tee box when winds gust like that. All it takes is for the wind to knock your balance off just a little bit, and boom, there goes your control and command.

[CheezWizHed]

Not to mention the aerodynamics of spinning balls going through air. If you are used to throwing 90 MPH, 20MPH winds means the air is going by at 110MPH. Spinning balls will react very differently with +20MPH.

[LouisEly]

I'm guessing the lack of naming someone right away to get called up to replace Espino has to do with whether/not to put Blazek back on the 40-man or keep the open roster spot.

 

I think you bring up Jungmann and leave the spot open (and I also think Jungmann should start - Suter has been much better out of the pen).

 

I think the reason for starting Suter is to get him closer to ineligibility for our Top 25 prospect poll that the plan is to budget Suter for 3-4 innings, then Blazek/Jungmann for 2-3 innings, then Hader, so you have lefty-righty-lefty and counter any stacking of righties or lefties in the opposing lineup.

 

Here's where that "rainout" with the Cubs comes back to screw the Brewers - they should have had an off-day on Thursday and should have been able to push their starters back a day to get them to the All-Star break with only covering one start.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm guessing the lack of naming someone right away to get called up to replace Espino has to do with whether/not to put Blazek back on the 40-man or keep the open roster spot.

 

I think you bring up Jungmann and leave the spot open (and I also think Jungmann should start - Suter has been much better out of the pen).

 

I think the reason for starting Suter is to get him closer to ineligibility for our Top 25 prospect poll that the plan is to budget Suter for 3-4 innings, then Blazek/Jungmann for 2-3 innings, then Hader, so you have lefty-righty-lefty and counter any stacking of righties or lefties in the opposing lineup.

 

Here's where that "rainout" with the Cubs comes back to screw the Brewers - they should have had an off-day on Thursday and should have been able to push their starters back a day to get them to the All-Star break with only covering one start.

 

I agree with you on Jungmann over Blazek. Not that Blazek hasn't pitched well. But keep the spot for a deal later on or adding someone else not on the 40 man now.