Pitching staff adjustments?

[Humans Need Water]

The Brewers would be silly to move Hader to the pen this early in his career. I'm 100% percent certain that they are committed to developing Josh as a starter. Any minor league bullpen appearances would be to just limit his innings, etc.

 

As silly as it may seem, that's what they are going to do. Anything Stearns or the organization says can be taken with a grain of salt. Most of the starters in the Brewers organization are going to end up as relievers. I just wonder how many innings Hader will get in the Brewers bullpen this year.

That's not what they are going to do. Hader is being developed as a starter and will continue to do so. The article within the past week cleared up this matter stating they're limiting his innings (pinch count also being a factor) to make sure he's able to help the Brewers in Sept. His past 2 starts he threw 2 innings in each start and I believe they stated his next start (tonight) will see him throw a normal 90+ pitch workload so we'll see if that's the case. They'll continue to cycle in the couple inning starts to help limit that workload for Sept. If he was going to be moved permanently to the pen then he wouldn't be taking his start every 5th game as his schedule would have been altered. Whether he is in the rotation or pen come Sept is irrelevant to his future as he's going to be starting next year.

 

What exactly has Stearns and the org said over the past almost 2yrs that would lead you to take what they say with a grain of salt? I feel like they're pretty straight forward communicators.

 

Also, every MLB's org sees most of their starters end up as relievers at the MLB level if they even get to that level. There's only 150 rotation spots in MLB and 600 minor league rotation spots between A-AAA. But there's actually more than 600 minor league rotation arms as guys split time, etc like Diplan/Peralta always did. That basically amounts to below 25% of rotations arms in the system that make it to the MLB level in the rotation - or what amounts to 5 pitchers. Davies should count as he was a AAA prospect when we acquired him, having spent zero time in MLB and he started 6 AAA games for us before spending the final month in MLB. Then started back at AAA for a couple starts before up full time. He technically came from our system so then we'd need 4 of Hader, Ortiz, Woodruff, Bickford, Burnes, Ponce, Peralta, Diplan, Supak, D.Williams. 2 of them will be in the MLB rotation come next April (Hader/Woodruff) and Ortiz will absolutely be right behind them as he's a great talent. So I'd say the Brewers are well on track. We basically have 2 entire levels between A-AAA covered with future "potential" #2-4 rotation arms who will all be Top 20 in org come mid-season updates (not Williams since injured). That doesn't include the draft next week or future acquisitions either.

 

I think Lopez, T.Williams, Kirby, Kodi, Pennington, Webb should be pen arms joining Wang, Derby making the move there full time.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Trade for Neshek

[jerichoholicninja]

Trade for Neshek

 

I was thinking that too. But mainly because I've always loved him.

[dacbrewers]

Going up and to the pen...guess I called that one. I'm now 2 for 10 on predictions.

[dacbrewers]

Neshek in last year of deal...guy is going to get a huge payday next year.

[Humans Need Water]

Going up and to the pen...guess I called that one. I'm now 2 for 10 on predictions.

Not to be the bearer of bad news but you didn't call it. What you called was Hader being "permanently" moved to the pen. That's not the case. As I just stated on another thread Hader is up because the Brewers are in 1st place and he's the only one in AAA that can step right in and be a big time contributor in the pen and from the left side to boot. The back-end is overworked and this move is equivalent to Stearns acquiring someone without actually giving anything up. The bonuses are this gets him out of CS (where someone with a filthy slider like him is greatly affected) and he gains MLB experience. Just like with Sale and Johan. Hader will be right back in the rotation after this season. If a starter is traded by the deadline it would make sense for Woodruff to take that spot and keep Hader in the pen that way both are contributing.

 

It makes sense for them to do it I just didn't think they were going too until later but clearly they're shooting for the playoff spot, as they should be.

[rickh150]

Hader walks a lot of hitters.... nice that he's up, but eh, we'll see. Hopefully, he's lights out and ends up starting big games for us down the stretch.

If he starts this year and does well, fans will start to believe.

[brewmann04]

Temper everyone enthusiasm

[lcbj68c]

Why does our bullpen suck so bad? Game after game after game after game.

[trwi7]

Why does our bullpen suck so bad? Game after game after game after game.

 

We have two guys the Pirates didn't want. A 30 year old with less than 60 innings, mediocre at best stuff and middling minor league success, a meh reliever in Torres, Feliz who has had home run problems since he came back from injury and then two good pitchers in Barnes and Knebel.

 

It shouldn't come as any shock that this bullpen is terrible.

[LouisEly]

Why does our bullpen suck so bad? Game after game after game after game.

 

We have two guys the Pirates didn't want. A 30 year old with less than 60 innings, mediocre at best stuff and middling minor league success, a meh reliever in Torres, Feliz who has had home run problems since he came back from injury and then two good pitchers in Barnes and Knebel.

 

It shouldn't come as any shock that this bullpen is terrible.

This (technically three guys the Pirates didn't want - they let Feliz walk).

[pacopete4]

[sarcasm]Yeah well I don't see Pitt in 1st place in the central. Their loss![/sarcasm]

[dacbrewers]

Going up and to the pen...guess I called that one. I'm now 2 for 10 on predictions.

Not to be the bearer of bad news but you didn't call it. What you called was Hader being "permanently" moved to the pen. That's not the case. As I just stated on another thread Hader is up because the Brewers are in 1st place and he's the only one in AAA that can step right in and be a big time contributor in the pen and from the left side to boot. The back-end is overworked and this move is equivalent to Stearns acquiring someone without actually giving anything up. The bonuses are this gets him out of CS (where someone with a filthy slider like him is greatly affected) and he gains MLB experience. Just like with Sale and Johan. Hader will be right back in the rotation after this season. If a starter is traded by the deadline it would make sense for Woodruff to take that spot and keep Hader in the pen that way both are contributing.

 

It makes sense for them to do it I just didn't think they were going too until later but clearly they're shooting for the playoff spot, as they should be.

 

I don't recall saying he was permanently in bullpen but I was correct that he was next up. My main problem is they stretched him out to be a starter and then cut his innings to relieve and then will end up stretching him out again to start in August. Hope he doesn't have any arm issues going forward. Hader also walks his fair share so hopefully it was a just a combo of Co. Springs and horrible umpiring and won't be the case in the majors.

[MrTPlush]

While the Brewers won't admit it I think this is a sign of what his future probably holds. If the Brewers were confident he could be a starter they wouldn't put him in a bullpen role at the start of June in my opinion. He isn't in our bullpen to limit innings. If he pitches well he will be in the bullpen all year and maybe break 100innings if we aggressively use him in a 2 inning role a lot. If we aren't increasing his innings this year(actually lessening them) I would be concerned about his future as a starter.

 

I am sure they try him as a starter going into next year, but I just question how much they truly think he can start long term.

[dacbrewers]

While the Brewers won't admit it I think this is a sign of what his future probably holds. If the Brewers were confident he could be a starter they wouldn't put him in a bullpen role at the start of June in my opinion. He isn't in our bullpen to limit innings. If he pitches well he will be in the bullpen all year and maybe break 100innings if we aggressively use him in a 2 inning role a lot. If we aren't increasing his innings this year(actually lessening them) I would be concerned about his future as a starter.

 

I am sure they try him as a starter going into next year, but I just question how much they truly think he can start long term.

 

I'm in agreement with you. I just wish his first taste of the Majors was a spot start or two before the move to pen this year. Would of much rather seen Hader than Espino.

[dacbrewers]

While the Brewers won't admit it I think this is a sign of what his future probably holds. If the Brewers were confident he could be a starter they wouldn't put him in a bullpen role at the start of June in my opinion. He isn't in our bullpen to limit innings. If he pitches well he will be in the bullpen all year and maybe break 100innings if we aggressively use him in a 2 inning role a lot. If we aren't increasing his innings this year(actually lessening them) I would be concerned about his future as a starter.

 

I am sure they try him as a starter going into next year, but I just question how much they truly think he can start long term.

 

I'm in agreement with you. I just wish his first taste of the Majors was a spot start or two before the move to pen this year. Would of much rather seen Hader than Espino.

[Ennder]

It is completely normal for a young pitcher to break into the majors in the bullpen and then transition back to being a starter. This isn't telling of anything other than this is how baseball works. Players have been used like this all the way back to the days of Earl Weaver. Adam Wainwright is a great example. Aaron Sanchez was brought up this way recently. Chris Sale, Alex Wood, CJ Wilson etc. There are plenty of guys who take this path to being starters.

[monty57]

It is completely normal for a young pitcher to break into the majors in the bullpen and then transition back to being a starter. This isn't telling of anything other than this is how baseball works. Players have been used like this all the way back to the days of Earl Weaver. Adam Wainwright is a great example. Aaron Sanchez was brought up this way recently. Chris Sale, Alex Wood, CJ Wilson etc. There are plenty of guys who take this path to being starters.

 

I just wonder about the innings. If the "gurus" are right, he needs to get to around 150 IP this inning if he wants to stay on track to be a full-time MLB starter in the next year or two.

 

With around 100 games left, we've got about 20 starts left for each starter. At 5-6 innings per start, that's 100-120 additional innings. Hader now has 53 innings on the year. He could probably start the rest of the season without a huge concern of him exceeding his innings limit. Out of the pen, he'll probably end up around 90 IP.

 

Unless they move him to the rotation soon, which I guess is a possibility, he will not be ready for a full MLB season as a starter next year. He'll probably get shut down around 150, and then at around 170 the following year. It just seems like an odd way to treat a guy who is a very highly ranked pitching prospect for a franchise that has only had a handful of those over 40-some years.

[markedman5]

Has Nelson been unlucky?

[Fear The Chorizo]

If the "gurus" are right, he needs to get to around 150 IP this inning if he wants to stay on track to be a full-time MLB starter in the next year or two.

 

I'm of the opinion that each scenario is its own animal - if a young pitcher brought up fulltime as a reliever is still getting enough work in on the side via simulated games, he doesn't need to log a certain number of actual game innings to justify a starter's role the following year.

 

Chris Sale was mentioned earlier as an arm that was in the pen for a few MLB seasons before transitioning back to starting. The year Sale was drafted (2010), he logged 103 college innings as a starter followed by a combo of 10 minor league and 23 MLB innings for the White Sox from the pen. That is a total of 146 innings that includes his amateur season. In 2011, Sale threw 71 innings exclusively from the bullpen over 58 appearances. Then in 2012 he resumed status as a fulltime starter and logged 192 IP.

 

If Hader can get comfortable breaking into the bigs in a bullpen role and work with MLB coaches during side sessions, I'd say stick him where he's comfortable and don't worry too much about what his IP total will be.

[monty57]

If the "gurus" are right, he needs to get to around 150 IP this inning if he wants to stay on track to be a full-time MLB starter in the next year or two.

 

I'm of the opinion that each scenario is its own animal - if a young pitcher brought up fulltime as a reliever is still getting enough work in on the side via simulated games, he doesn't need to log a certain number of actual game innings to justify a starter's role the following year.

 

Chris Sale was mentioned earlier as an arm that was in the pen for a few MLB seasons before transitioning back to starting. The year Sale was drafted (2010), he logged 103 college innings as a starter followed by a combo of 10 minor league and 23 MLB innings for the White Sox from the pen. That is a total of 146 innings that includes his amateur season. In 2011, Sale threw 71 innings exclusively from the bullpen over 58 appearances. Then in 2012 he resumed status as a fulltime starter and logged 192 IP.

 

If Hader can get comfortable breaking into the bigs in a bullpen role and work with MLB coaches during side sessions, I'd say stick him where he's comfortable and don't worry too much about what his IP total will be.

 

I can't see them working side sessions/simulated games with him when he may be needed to pitch multiple days in a row, or for multiple innings in a game. You can do side sessions as a starter when you are on a strict routine, but it would be difficult for a reliever because you don't know when you'll need him.

 

As to the Sale example, he hit the 146 IP in a season before being moved to the bullpen. Once you hit a limit, I think you're okay. Hader has never done that.

 

They're probably planning on converting him back to a starter before the end of the season to add some innings, but if they stay in first place and the starters are doing okay, that could be difficult. I want to win, but it would stink if our attempt to win this year means that we lose a lot of starts from Hader over the next two years in order to keep his innings down.

 

He's now been up since June 9 and he has 6.1 IP, putting him at 58.1 IP for the season.

[FVBrewerFan]

Even if they want Hader as a starter, nothing says they want/need to stretch him out as a starter NEXT season. Maybe he stays in the pen for 2-4 years, and at some point they try him out as a starter. Just guessing, but I think that time will come if/when he can command all his pitches.

[Fear The Chorizo]

At his current (and light) usage rate, Hader will still end up with around 100IP if he stays in the pen through the end of the season. There's still 3 full months of the regular season - keeping Hader on the big league club, even in the bullpen, allows him to pitch through a much longer season than anything he's seen at this point of his career as a prospect/minor leaguer. Giving him another inning or two a week would get him close 125IP if his performance warrants it. If the Brewers find a way to make the playoffs he may get a few more innings of relief work, or if they miss the playoffs the Brewers could just line him up for a few simulated games through October to stretch him back out a bit before the offseason.

 

I agree with FV, until he develops better command of his full arsenal of pitches I think he stays in the pen, and reaching a predetermined innings limit before being declared a MLB starter going into a season isn't a requirement.

[monty57]

Even if they want Hader as a starter, nothing says they want/need to stretch him out as a starter NEXT season. Maybe he stays in the pen for 2-4 years, and at some point they try him out as a starter. Just guessing, but I think that time will come if/when he can command all his pitches.

 

You may have a higher regard for bullpen arms then I have. To me, sticking Hader in the 'pen for 2-4 years is akin to bringing up Brinson to be a bench bat for 2-4 years. The Brewers get minimal value from him, then get a short period to showcase him as a starter before he's on someone else's roster.

 

If he is being thrown into the pen because the Brewers don't think his command is good enough for him to be a starting pitcher, then our farm is not nearly as strong as we're being told. I don't think that's the case. I think he's up as a bullpen arm because the Brewers are in first place and they are having bullpen problems. I can understand that, but if it means that the best starting pitching prospect we've had since Ben Sheets ends up spending most of his Brewer career in the bullpen, then it's not worth it. Again, I don't think that will be the case, so I am very curious as to how they are going to get him the innings he needs. For that, he has to end up in a rotation sometime this year, even if that means playing in a fall or winter league somewhere.

 

I do have some concern that the Brewers are bringing up some of their top prospects before they are ready, and that will cost them a ton of value down the road as these guys play for the Brewers when they're not yet MLB ready and then play their best years in a different uniform. This is lessened by the fact that we have a lot of talent on the farm, but it is still a concern.

[Ennder]

Not sure Hader is a better prospect than Gallardo was.

 

I fully agree they are messing with these prospects more than they need to this year though.