Time to Start Worrying About Villar?

[adambr2]

This is why I don't understand why young guys who have a breakout year, unless it's a severe lowball offer, don't take the guaranteed money when they have a chance. Worst case scenario for Villar if this whole season ends up a disaster, he could be a non-tender candidate. If that happens, he joins the Nick Franklins of the world, just trying to find work.

 

Villar has never made over 500K or thereabouts in a season. Therefore, $20M dollars is life changing. Obviously 50M is better than 20M if you want to go for the money, but both are life changing amounts where you or your family will never have to worry about money again if you take care of it. 500K, it's a lot, but it's not lifetime security.

 

So maybe this is just a long funk that Villar snaps out of at some point. Or maybe he really is Bill Hall 2.0. But at least Bill Hall took the money when he had a chance.

[JohnBriggs12]

This is why I don't understand why young guys who have a breakout year, unless it's a severe lowball offer, don't take the guaranteed money when they have a chance. Worst case scenario for Villar if this whole season ends up a disaster, he could be a non-tender candidate. If that happens, he joins the Nick Franklins of the world, just trying to find work.

 

Villar has never made over 500K or thereabouts in a season. Therefore, $20M dollars is life changing. Obviously 50M is better than 20M if you want to go for the money, but both are life changing amounts where you or your family will never have to worry about money again if you take care of it. 500K, it's a lot, but it's not lifetime security.

 

So maybe this is just a long funk that Villar snaps out of at some point. Or maybe he really is Bill Hall 2.0. But at least Bill Hall took the money when he had a chance.

 

Comparing Villar to Hall is an insult to Hall, who at least had two very good seasons (05 and 06) but the point is valid nonetheless. If all it took were one or two outstanding seasons to be a Hall of Famer, Sixto Lezcano would have a plaque in Cooperstown. There's something to be said for putting up respectable numbers year after year even if you are perceived as expendable.

[pacopete4]

And to tag onto that thought, not taking the money puts that much more pressure on the player trying to prove he is worth more.

[monty57]

Villar needs to get hot to be considered a journeyman at this point. We're nearly a third of the way into the season and he's hitting .214. It's a better lineup with Sogard in it. By the way, Scooter's OPS is now at .854. Just sayin.

 

No one cares about what Scooter Gennett is doing as a bench player here except you. And saying "Just Saying" is annoying. Stop acting like you are something special because Scooter Gennett has proven he was a better choice to keep in your mind. It gets old.

 

I think Gennett is worthwhile to talk about in a Villar thread, as they are directly related. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it looks like we would have been better off keeping Arcia in AAA last year, and starting this season with Villar at SS and Gennett at 2B.

 

Gennett became the odd man out because for some reason we felt the need to rush Arcia to the majors when he wasn't ready. This really wasn't needed, and seems to go against the "controllable talent" thing Stearns likes to tout. After Arcia got brought up, and for some reason can't be sent back down no matter how bad he hits, the decision came down to Villar vs Gennett. After his season last year, it seemed like an easy decision to stick with Villar, but that doesn't mean that it will end up being the correct decision.

 

Don't rush Arcia, keep Villar at SS, Gennett at 2B. We're probably better this year, and we have Arcia for another year or two in his prime years down the road. Now, because of decisions that were made, we've got two guys on our team who aren't hitting (Villar and Arcia), and the only alternatives are guys like Franklin, Sogard, de Jesus, or Y. Rivera.

 

There is still plenty of time for Villar to turn things around and look like a guy we can stick with, but if he does turn into a pumpkin, what are our options? We'll probably either have to go out on the free agent market to find a 2B, or rush a prospect like Diaz to the majors before he's probably ready. Stearns has made lots of great decisions. The decision to cut Gennett in order to keep an extra pitcher might not be one of them.

[MrTPlush]

For the record, since people ask frequently, Villar doesn't have an option. So no he isn't going to be demoted.

[monty57]

This is why I don't understand why young guys who have a breakout year, unless it's a severe lowball offer, don't take the guaranteed money when they have a chance. Worst case scenario for Villar if this whole season ends up a disaster, he could be a non-tender candidate. If that happens, he joins the Nick Franklins of the world, just trying to find work.

 

Villar has never made over 500K or thereabouts in a season. Therefore, $20M dollars is life changing. Obviously 50M is better than 20M if you want to go for the money, but both are life changing amounts where you or your family will never have to worry about money again if you take care of it. 500K, it's a lot, but it's not lifetime security.

 

So maybe this is just a long funk that Villar snaps out of at some point. Or maybe he really is Bill Hall 2.0. But at least Bill Hall took the money when he had a chance.

 

I agree. I'll never hold it against someone if they make the decision to go for the most money, as that is their right, but I think most players should take it if it's offered. Villar's closest "real world" example was Lucroy, who looked to have been hurt by accepting the extension. Hopefully, Villar can be an example for next guy(s) so they will decide to take the extension.

[JohnBriggs12]

For the record, since people ask frequently, Villar doesn't have an option. So no he isn't going to be demoted.

 

I suspect if he ends the season with and OPS of .610, he'll be non-tendered. But until that point they'll keep giving him chances no doubt because other than the aforementioned journeyman types, they really don't have his replacement ready unless they move Perez out of his handyman role to full timer at 2B.

[FVBrewerFan]

I had an issue at the time letting Gennett walk also. If they could have traded him for even a couple mediocre prospects I would have been ok with it. And I get it, Aguilar can only play one position, so having Scooter would have really hurt the flexibility.

 

But having Thames, Franklin, and others out in LF not sure Gennett would have been much worse for a game here and there. SS and 3B were covered by Villar and Perez, so it really could have worked. But what's done is done.

 

Villar could go the route of guys like Listach or Segura. Some early success, then hit the skids. Segura bounced back in a big way, Listach never did. It's so hard to project players with limited experience, especially when the results vary so wildly. But Villar still has 2/3 of the year, so let's just see if he can turn it around. At some point maybe DeJesus gets a shot. Either way, I don't think it's a given Villar will not be back next year. They can always give him through May or so, and if Dubon is ready he can come up then.

[adambr2]

This is why I don't understand why young guys who have a breakout year, unless it's a severe lowball offer, don't take the guaranteed money when they have a chance. Worst case scenario for Villar if this whole season ends up a disaster, he could be a non-tender candidate. If that happens, he joins the Nick Franklins of the world, just trying to find work.

 

Villar has never made over 500K or thereabouts in a season. Therefore, $20M dollars is life changing. Obviously 50M is better than 20M if you want to go for the money, but both are life changing amounts where you or your family will never have to worry about money again if you take care of it. 500K, it's a lot, but it's not lifetime security.

 

So maybe this is just a long funk that Villar snaps out of at some point. Or maybe he really is Bill Hall 2.0. But at least Bill Hall took the money when he had a chance.

 

I agree. I'll never hold it against someone if they make the decision to go for the most money, as that is their right, but I think most players should take it if it's offered. Villar's closest "real world" example was Lucroy, who looked to have been hurt by accepting the extension. Hopefully, Villar can be an example for next guy(s) so they will decide to take the extension.

 

To me it's simple, and I know it's easy for me to say because I'll never be in that position. If I'm Villar, and I have that offer on the table, the opportunity is in my hands to take care of my family forever. I don't know what the future holds, even if I think I'm good, I can't be sure what will happen, and I'll always chance that an injury could change everything forever.

 

I hope these guys who take it don't lay in bed thinking, 'Man, if I had only waited i could have earned 70M by now instead of 20M. I don't understand that. Even if they do, I'd much rather lose sleep over that than 'Wow, this baseball thing isn't working out for me, and I'm almost out of money already. I've got no professional skills or education, and I turned down 20M a year ago to play this game, what am I going to do now?'

 

I also don't understand the 'pride' reason of why these guys turn down these deals, and we know that's a factor. They don't want to end up underpaid compared to their colleagues. My goodness, just set your family up for life,, the real pride is in taking care of them, not about worrying about what the annual salary of someone who affects your life in no way is compared to your own.

 

Just my thoughts.

[rickh150]

Our hot hitters should play. That was Sogar. Who knows any more. We didn't have to just sit Villar. Sogar could have rotated a few positions, sat a day, and so on. What has the man done to earn Franklin status? Play him and lead him off until he comes down to earth. Then again, he could hit .200 and still have a better OBP than Villar.

[stoutdude04]

The thing that concerns me about Villar is it doesn't even seem like he's hitting the ball hard. Early in the season he had some hard hit bad luck outs...now it's weak roll out after weak roll out.

[rickh150]

For the record, since people ask frequently, Villar doesn't have an option. So no he isn't going to be demoted.

 

Wondering about that...

thanks

[logan82]

Scooter Gennett? You mean the guy who has been basically platooned to inflate his numbers?

[rickh150]

The thing that concerns me about Villar is it doesn't even seem like he's hitting the ball hard. Early in the season he had some hard hit bad luck outs...now it's weak roll out after weak roll out.

 

Villar has had one very good year. I'd say great but the mental errors were racked up at a historic rate. He isn't guy with five plus years of good/very good hitting. I know CC is trying to get him going, but Sogar has to play somewhere for the time being. Why can't Sogar be this year's version of Villar or Guerra?

[FVBrewerFan]

Scooter Gennett? You mean the guy who has been basically platooned to inflate his numbers?

 

Yes, the same Scooter Gennett who had an OPS of .728 playing full time last year.

[MadScientist]

The thing that concerns me about Villar is it doesn't even seem like he's hitting the ball hard. Early in the season he had some hard hit bad luck outs...now it's weak roll out after weak roll out.

 

Villar has had one very good year. I'd say great but the mental errors were racked up at a historic rate. He isn't guy with five plus years of good/very good hitting. I know CC is trying to get him going, but Sogar has to play somewhere for the time being. Why can't Sogar be this year's version of Villar or Guerra?

 

His 'one good year' was last year, and that was the only year he played full time. I'm not thrilled with his production, but this year we need to find out if he can really put things together and be a consistently productive player. He has too much talent to discard it to easily. Sogard looks great in limited action, but at 5 years older than Villar, he doesn't likely have a long future ahead of him.

[Boomer5]

Bill Hall v2.0?

 

Bill Hall was a better player but this is a pretty good comparison.

 

I was trying to think of a single player that went from All Star caliber to DFA candidate this quickly and at such a young age.

 

It happens but it's not often that a young player can't build a career off Villars excellent 2016.

 

I'd love to hear what Cubs fans are saying about Shwarber these days, for example.

[monty57]

Villar has had one very good year. I'd say great but the mental errors were racked up at a historic rate. He isn't guy with five plus years of good/very good hitting. I know CC is trying to get him going, but Sogar has to play somewhere for the time being. Why can't Sogar be this year's version of Villar or Guerra?

 

His 'one good year' was last year, and that was the only year he played full time. I'm not thrilled with his production, but this year we need to find out if he can really put things together and be a consistently productive player. He has too much talent to discard it to easily. Sogard looks great in limited action, but at 5 years older than Villar, he doesn't likely have a long future ahead of him.

 

I guess that's the problem with our winning before we're "supposed to." We still want to give guys who could be part of our future a shot, but at the same time it would stink if we lost the division by a game while playing a .600 OPS, below-average defensive 2B everyday. Hopefully he'll turn things around soon.

 

Scooter Gennett? You mean the guy who has been basically platooned to inflate his numbers?

 

A lot of lefties platoon. Nothing wrong with that, especially when about 3/4 of SP are right handed. I get that he's not a world beater, and I understand why the Brewers gave Villar the starting nod. It's just looking like cutting him may have been a mistake. Those happen.

[rcc]

Sometimes a player takes the extension and tanks. Sometimes they reject it and tank. Looking for more money isn't always the best way to go but the agent has major influence on the player. The more he makes, the more they make. It remains to be seen what happens to Villar. I don't think he'll be a superstar, but time will tell.

[MrTPlush]

For the record, since people ask frequently, Villar doesn't have an option. So no he isn't going to be demoted.

 

I suspect if he ends the season with and OPS of .610, he'll be non-tendered. But until that point they'll keep giving him chances no doubt because other than the aforementioned journeyman types, they really don't have his replacement ready unless they move Perez out of his handyman role to full timer at 2B.

 

I doubt they non tender him. I am sure there are teams that would trade for Villar if we personally didn't want him. He was pretty darn good the 700 ABs he had the previous two years.

[gregmag]

The thing that concerns me about Villar is it doesn't even seem like he's hitting the ball hard. Early in the season he had some hard hit bad luck outs...now it's weak roll out after weak roll out.

 

Villar has had one very good year. I'd say great but the mental errors were racked up at a historic rate. He isn't guy with five plus years of good/very good hitting. I know CC is trying to get him going, but Sogar has to play somewhere for the time being. Why can't Sogar be this year's version of Villar or Guerra?

 

His 'one good year' was last year, and that was the only year he played full time. I'm not thrilled with his production, but this year we need to find out if he can really put things together and be a consistently productive player. He has too much talent to discard it to easily. Sogard looks great in limited action, but at 5 years older than Villar, he doesn't likely have a long future ahead of him.

This is the core point, I think. The Brewers want to win a championship. They need to gamble on upside. Gennett has none. What he's doing now is what he can do for a little while against righties sometimes. That won't move the needle.

 

Villar may fail, and we can second-guess going with him when that happens, but at another level you have to assess the Villar upside gamble in the context of the overall building strategy. A mindset that keeps Gennett likely chooses Carter over Thames, likely doesn't pick up Guerra or Broxton, likely doesn't ride out Santana's development, likely keeps Maldonado rather than pick up Bandy and doesn't give Pina a shot.

[danzig6767]

Sometimes a player takes the extension and tanks. Sometimes they reject it and tank. Looking for more money isn't always the best way to go but the agent has major influence on the player. The more he makes, the more they make. It remains to be seen what happens to Villar. I don't think he'll be a superstar, but time will tell.

Agents work for the player. All they can do is layout potential scenarios for a player to make a final answer on.

 

Sure, an agent gets more money the bigger the contract, but they also lose money if a player turns down an offer like Villar got and then that player fails to perform up to hoped expectations for an even bigger contract. So there are risks for both the player and agent.

 

As for Villar, even if he continues having a bad season, it doesn't have to mean that he can't bounce back say next year and play really well to get paid well in the future. He is only 26 after all.

 

A player has to be skilled to put up the type of season he did last year, but baseball is both a physical and mental game, which can lead to failure getting into a players head. Villar certainly wouldn't be the first player this happened to. Some are eventually able to get out of that mental funk at the plate and some aren't. Time will tell with Villar. He has a lot riding on it.

[tmwiese55]

Couldn't watch last night, i went throught the game thread but didn't see an answer. Why was Villar pulled early from the game? Just a standard double switch situation?

[CheezWizHed]

Couldn't watch last night, i went throught the game thread but didn't see an answer. Why was Villar pulled early from the game? Just a standard double switch situation?

 

Yes, Torres came in to pitch and took his spot in the lineup. Granted, that happened right after he was caught stealing (on a very good throw from the catcher).

[JohnBriggs12]

Can anyone possibly still argue that they aren't a better team right now with Sogard at 2B?

 

It's June and they are a first place team. The best lineup needs to be out there most of the time and Villar is not in that group. Of course that could change at some point but they can't continue to wait on Villar.