Thames

[adambr2]

If Thames is for real, you have years of team control on two legitimate .900+ OPS guys in him and Braun, along with several guys who could be .800+ OPS guys in Santana, Shaw and Brinson. Villar has shown the ability to be a 20 HR / 60 SB threat, and both of our catchers (maybe all three) are capable MLB hitters. That could be a strong offense for years.

 

Meanwhile, Peralta and Nelson have the talent to be good pitchers, and they're finally showing some improvement. Anderson has a history as a guy who deserves to be in an MLB rotation, and Davies should be a decent middle-of-the-rotation starter. Plus, our most talented pitchers are still in the minors and will be emerging onto the scene starting this year.

 

All of this, and we have around $50-60M of free cash to spend to fill in any holes we may have. Picking up Thames looks to be a really good move that could have single-handedly moved the "competitive time horizon" up. The Gomez and Lucroy trades were other moves that already did that.

 

We are getting close to being good, and we have to be really careful not to make a move that could harm that. I wouldn't trade Thames for at least a few years unless I got a couple of guys back who look to be sure-thing superstars. We're not getting that in trade, so I'd just hold onto him and enjoy watching him play.

 

I'm not ready to say we are getting close to being good as I think it's still just too early in the season to separate what is fluke from what is real right now. But if it does end up being true I think the rest of your post is right on.

[Roderick]

We're a player or 2 away from becoming a Playoff caliber team.

 

I agree if those two players were Kershaw and Scherzer. I don't see how we can really think we are a playoff team with our starting staff.

[billymac]

Only way I deal Thames is if we have a stud in waiting like Bellinger and we get a massive haul in return, which likely won't happen. I could see Wily and Nelson being moved still to make room for some of the younger guys in Hader and Woodruff or Lopez if they get good value back. We have Wily for 2 more years and Jimmy and Chase for 3 before hitting FA. Milone and Kirk could be let go off the 40 man and I'm sure most everyone wouldn't care. So there are still quite a few more moves to be made before you can say the reload is over.

[pacopete4]

We're a player or 2 away from becoming a Playoff caliber team.

 

I agree if those two players were Kershaw and Scherzer. I don't see how we can really think we are a playoff team with our starting staff.

 

 

I guess it depends on how high people are with the likes of Hader and Woodruff.

[adambr2]

I think any team thinking that they're a player or two away is a mistake. It sounds like what our mentality always was in the post-2007 Melvin era. Things happen, guys get injured or underperform, others surprise in a good way. Stick with the plan.

 

Doesn't mean you can't think it, of course, just don't let it change your plan.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yep, that's the point I was making earlier about 2015 season. I mean, how soon we forget. After the 2014 season, many (including the Brewers) thought we were a couple players away. We all know how 2015 went, and a true rebuild began after that.

 

This team is ready to compete now with their line-up. Even if Braun AND Thames were traded, there's a lot of bats on the way and plenty of money to but another.

 

But I just see way too much optimism in general about the rotation. Bottom line, we honestly don't know if ANY of Peralta, Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Guerra, Hader, Woodruff can be a part of a contending team this year, or next year, or 2019. Sure, someone will pan out. But how many of those guys? And I'm not even talking about a stud ace or two. Just 3 really good pitchers, and a couple more that are #3/#4 types.

 

I don't think I'm being negative, just realistic. Even if Hader and Woodruff are really good, HOW good will they be. And how soon? Consistently really good? I guess I can't even think about being a true contender until I start seeing signs that a World Series winning rotation is being built. Counting on a couple wildly inconsistent guys and a couple guys who aren't even up yet doesn't quite qualify.

[adambr2]

Yep, that's the point I was making earlier about 2015 season. I mean, how soon we forget. After the 2014 season, many (including the Brewers) thought we were a couple players away. We all know how 2015 went, and a true rebuild began after that.

 

This team is ready to compete now with their line-up. Even if Braun AND Thames were traded, there's a lot of bats on the way and plenty of money to but another.

 

But I just see way too much optimism in general about the rotation. Bottom line, we honestly don't know if ANY of Peralta, Nelson, Davies, Anderson, Guerra, Hader, Woodruff can be a part of a contending team this year, or next year, or 2019. Sure, someone will pan out. But how many of those guys? And I'm not even talking about a stud ace or two. Just 3 really good pitchers, and a couple more that are #3/#4 types.

 

I don't think I'm being negative, just realistic. Even if Hader and Woodruff are really good, HOW good will they be. And how soon? Consistently really good? I guess I can't even think about being a true contender until I start seeing signs that a World Series winning rotation is being built. Counting on a couple wildly inconsistent guys and a couple guys who aren't even up yet doesn't quite qualify.

 

I'm pretty much right where you're at on the pitching staff and lineup. I believe in our hitters, I really do. But right now we have a rotation with no ace and chock full of #4s, until proven otherwise. Maybe Hader can be an ace, maybe Woodruff can be a #2, maybe Guerra is for real. But we can't assume it yet.

[LouisEly]

I think any team thinking that they're a player or two away is a mistake. It sounds like what our mentality always was in the post-2007 Melvin era. Things happen, guys get injured or underperform, others surprise in a good way. Stick with the plan.

 

Doesn't mean you can't think it, of course, just don't let it change your plan.

You're a player or two away when you're starting a Yuni B and don't have a LHRP, yet still win 96 games.

[monty57]

I'm not ready to say we are getting close to being good as I think it's still just too early in the season to separate what is fluke from what is real right now. But if it does end up being true I think the rest of your post is right on.

 

Just to note: I'm not proposing that we should start trading prospects to go "all in." I was one of the guys screaming the loudest against how we went about things in the last go-round.

 

I guess "close" and "good" are both relative terms. We are not close to being a 100-win team. We are getting closer to being in the Wild Card discussion.

 

It would still take a whole lot of things to go right for us to be in it this year, and the odds of that are very slim. I fully expect us to trade away some guys at the deadline. Feliz seems to be a no-brainer, and Peralta is probably a good bet to go as well if he continues to pitch well. Both of those guys could bring back some good young talent.

 

I do expect Brinson and at least one SP to come up from the farm this year, and I expect that we will continue to have good talent coming up from the farm every year for the foreseeable future. This will allow us to trade guys who start to get expensive, and whose "team control" is waning. We also have a lot of free cash flow, which we will hopefully be smart about using, and which could land us more talent if used wisely.

 

I do not expect to have to wait until our entire starting rotation is gone and hope that the SP prospects can take us to the promised land. We have talent in the rotation, and I hope/think that some of our current rotation will prove that they belong in the majors. Supplement these guys with talented prospects like Hader/Woodson/Ortiz/others, and possibly someone we pick up using our free cash (free agency or taking on a salary in trade), and we could have a decent rotation to go along with what is seemingly a good offense. That could be enough to get us a Wild Card, maybe as soon as next year, but there are a lot of cards that need to be played before that so we'll have to see where we are at the end of this season before I want to get too crazy talking about playoffs.

 

To topic, I think trading Thames this trade deadline or next offseason would probably hurt us. It always depends on return, and if someone were willing to give us a young MLB ready SP who looks like he's going to be the next Syndergaard, then we'd have to look long and hard at that deal. But realistically we're probably best off holding on to Thames at his low cost for two or three years, and then looking to trade him when he has a year or two left. As I mentioned above, I like to get most of the good play out of a contract, and trade the player when "team control" is waning, and hopefully we'll have a replacement who is ready to take his spot. Someone is always there to give you good prospects for the final year of a good player on a below-market contract.

[FVBrewerFan]

Thing is, Brewers may just DFA Thames after this season. It's very exciting to watch him, but we still have no idea what kind of hitter he will be long term. Maybe he goes into the tank and can't recover. I mean, he's a great story but it's only page one of the story. Do I think he will end up being horrible? No. But it is possible, and also possible he could just be decent but nothing special.

 

That's all ok though, because a trade isn't happening now anyhow. We'll have a better idea what we have come July, and re-visit this then.

[pacopete4]

Thing is, Brewers may just DFA Thames after this season.

 

 

I'm so confused.

[monty57]

Thing is, Brewers may just DFA Thames after this season. It's very exciting to watch him, but we still have no idea what kind of hitter he will be long term. Maybe he goes into the tank and can't recover. I mean, he's a great story but it's only page one of the story. Do I think he will end up being horrible? No. But it is possible, and also possible he could just be decent but nothing special.

 

That's all ok though, because a trade isn't happening now anyhow. We'll have a better idea what we have come July, and re-visit this then.

 

Right, but that could be said about anyone. All of our top prospects could stink when they get to the majors, but that doesn't mean we should trade them now for "proven" talent. I think you and I agree that putting too much emphasis on "proven" over "unproven" was part of the problem of the past.

 

Thames looks like he should be an undervalued commodity for a while, and that's what we should be accumulating. Players who can play above average baseball at a below average salary are gold. When playing with a limited budget relative to your peers, utility per dollar is very important. No one can predict the future, but I would guess that Thames will provide more per dollar spent over the next few years than most top prospects will provide.

[FVBrewerFan]

Thing is, Brewers may just DFA Thames after this season.

 

 

I'm so confused.

 

I'm sure you are. That's what happens when you selectively pull a quote out of context.

[pacopete4]

Thing is, Brewers may just DFA Thames after this season.

 

 

I'm so confused.

 

I'm sure you are. That's what happens when you selectively pull a quote out of context.

 

No I read and understood your point but just cannot see how or why the Brewers would DFA a guy after one season of a 3-4 year (has this been settled yet?) contract?

[And That]

If Thames finished the year with a slash line of like .180/.230/.300, a DFA would certainly be plausible. He'd have to be historically awful for the rest of the season to accomplish that. I've seen stranger things, though.

[MrTPlush]

There is almost no way Eric Thames would get DFA'd. At worst he has big time power as a lefty and can play multiple positions.

[FVBrewerFan]

I understand. Extreme example, maybe 1% chance that happens. Meant to get us all to take a deep breath and realize he's not some untouchable Babe Ruth type player. Casey McGehee was a huge presence in the middle of the line-up, and completely lost it, and was cut. Not exactly same situation here, but similar.

 

So when I see the pictures of how he is a major piece of the rebuild, can't be traded, etc., it's nowhere near a given. So at the deadline if someone offered Hader/ Supak/Pennington tough to hang up the phone.

[3and2Fastball]

If Thames keeps hitting like he has maybe we can trade him for Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons

[adambr2]

3-4 year (has this been settled yet?) contract?

 

The Brewers control Thames for a maximum of 4 seasons including this one. He has base salaries of 4,5, and 6M each respectively in 2017, 18, and 19, and then a team option for 2020 which can be exercised by the Brewers for $7.5M or bought out for $1M.

[brewcrewdue80]

Rebuilding teams win 70games and less with losses being by 5 runs or more.

 

Then there never has been a rebuilding team in the history of MLB. Because no team has had a run differential of 810+ runs.[/quote

 

I mean really? Read that line again, and see how terribly off you are. Guess were playing 300games in the season to arrive to your number.

 

Let's try football instead. The Cleveland Brows, a constant rebuild team loses games often by 14 or more pts. A competitive team experiences losses often by 1 possession scores. Games arent over in the 1st half rather often 4th quarters decide them. We are at the point already where we are playing games in thr 4th quarter within 1 possession scores. It's not over at halftime.

 

 

As to the 2players away. Reading responses after it seems an expectation to be WS contenders requires 100wins.

 

2 players being pitchers that help the team reach the playoffs. Anything can happen at that point. St Louis beat us in 2011. Did our record and home team advantage matter? We can be that St Louis team and Cubs be who we were in 11. Just making the playoffs gives potential for that to happen.

[logan82]

If Thames finished the year with a slash line of like .180/.230/.300, a DFA would certainly be plausible. He'd have to be historically awful for the rest of the season to accomplish that. I've seen stranger things, though.

I saw that too. I thought it was pretty good.

[superfly]

Considering ourselves as a rebuilding team with needs to trade away their best Position Players is over. We're a competitive team today .

 

Again, 15 games. We did not go from a rebuilding team to a contender over the course of 15 games.

 

Plug in an ace and a solid #3 for what Davies and Milone (a decent Garza?) have been doing and we're a playoff team at this stage. The rebuild is done other than adding/subtracting here and there, now we sit and wait for it to mature.

[FVBrewerFan]

Rebuilding teams win 70games and less with losses being by 5 runs or more.

 

Then there never has been a rebuilding team in the history of MLB. Because no team has had a run differential of 810+ runs.[/quote

 

I mean really? Read that line again, and see how terribly off you are. Guess were playing 300games in the season to arrive to your number.

 

Wow, I was really off on my math. I used the full 162 games, instead of just the losses. But the Phillies had the worst run differential last year, at 1.1. So there's no way they were close to losing by 5 runs in their losses.

[And That]

So there's no way they were close to losing by 5 runs in their losses.

The Phillies' average margin of defeat last year was 4.18 runs.

[FVBrewerFan]

See, that's .82 runs a game less.