Thames

[adambr2]

Was going to add this to the previous Thames thread that Briggs started but it was locked after the Thames signing.

 

Someone is going to ask, if we haven't discussed this already so I may as well throw it out there. Suppose that the first 12 games from Thames are no fluke and he's mashing at the deadline with 20 Hrs and a .900+ OPS.

 

Obviously his contract and production would make him an extremely valuable trade asset quickly, possibly the most valuable trade chip we had available. He's also 30. But we also don't have a clear 1B option coming up through the prospect ranks, either.

 

Would you trade him for a haul at the deadline, wait and see if he'll be worth even more after the season, or just be happy you signed him and have him under control for 4 seasons?

 

Obviously there are other factors at play here like whether or not there are emerging 1B options in the farm and how close the team is getting to competitive baseball.

[igor67]

I could see a solid reason to deal Braun and keep Thames if both are playing well and the team is doing say around .500. Basically OF is our most loaded position and while Braun's production is very good and might even be better then any of our current OF prospects can do over the rest of his contract he can net you the best potential return at other areas we aren't as deep and you can plausibly come close to replacing his production with a high likelihood of success. Thames if he is legit is almost certainly then the best Garrett Cooper could ever be, and after that your looking at Gatewood who could be amazing but is still quite raw and still in A ball. So if your thinking maybe next year the team can be young and maybe truly make a run at a wild card trading Thames probably opens a whole at first and doesn't likely net something awesome like a #1 or #2 starter.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why don't we enjoy players wearing Brewer uniforms doing well instead of seeing them as trade chips? It goes without saying players who perform well have value. Finding replacements or fair return is not so easy. While it looks promising, the returns for Gomez and Lucroy have not yet made an impact in the majors unless you count Santana who's biggest impact was prompting the trade of one of the best sluggers in the game for 2 less than sure thing minor leaguers.

[sfl2hnq17]

Oh surprise, surprise Khris Davis got brought. He has hit the most homers in the majors over the last two years and still has a negative WAR.

 

Edit: I meant negative defensive WAR. He played 40 percent of his games as DH.

[MrTPlush]

Oh surprise, surprise Khris Davis got brought. He has hit the most homers in the majors over the last two years and still has a negative WAR.

 

Khris Davis doesn't have a negative war and was a solid 3 WARish player last year. The way he is starting this year that trade could be a pretty terrible trade. Hindsight is always easy to do tough.

 

That's not the point of this thread though. Thames should not be on the trading block. If he is legit we found our 1B on the next contending team that could be real soon if we spend money smart in FA and our top prospects come up and perform.

[pogokat]

Why don't we enjoy players wearing Brewer uniforms doing well instead of seeing them as trade chips? It goes without saying players who perform well have value. Finding replacements or fair return is not so easy. While it looks promising, the returns for Gomez and Lucroy have not yet made an impact in the majors unless you count Santana who's biggest impact was prompting the trade of one of the best sluggers in the game for 2 less than sure thing minor leaguers.

 

You do realize this is the trade forum, right? where people come to discuss this sort of thing? Or do you just have to get a word into every conversation? It's super annoying.

[adambr2]

Why don't we enjoy players wearing Brewer uniforms doing well instead of seeing them as trade chips? It goes without saying players who perform well have value. Finding replacements or fair return is not so easy. While it looks promising, the returns for Gomez and Lucroy have not yet made an impact in the majors unless you count Santana who's biggest impact was prompting the trade of one of the best sluggers in the game for 2 less than sure thing minor leaguers.

 

Just the way of life for a small market team, man. Especially when you're dealing with players in their 30s. That's not me saying that we should trade Thames, but that we should never close the door on the possibility for anyone.

 

Gomez and Lucroy weren't traded for players that were expected to make an impact on day 1. I don't know how anyone can look at those trades, especially Gomez without considering them big successes .

[adambr2]

Oh surprise, surprise Khris Davis got brought. He has hit the most homers in the majors over the last two years and still has a negative WAR.

That's not the point of this thread though. Thames should not be on the trading block. If he is legit we found our 1B on the next contending team that could be real soon if we spend money smart in FA and our top prospects come up and perform.

 

Even though I started this thread, I tend to lean towards agreement of this viewpoint the most. At some point, you've got to pick some guys to build around coming out of the rebuild, and if Thames could indeed somehow be a .925-.950 OPS guy with 35-40 HR power, he'd definitely be a candidate. It doesn't hurt that he costs $5M a year for the first 3 years, which is basically nothing in MLB salary terms. Now obviously you'd prefer if he was 25 instead of 30, but you've still got control over him through 2020, and by all accounts he keeps himself in great shape, so it's not out of the question that he could stay productive through those 4 years. If he is, he's the guy you want manning 1st in 2019 and 2020. If you had a Cody Bellinger in the wings, maybe you'd look to move Thames if he rakes in the 1st half, but we don't.

 

Now, all of this is subject to change. If 2017 ends and we end up with a 65 win team, and our prospects aren't coming along as well as we hoped and Thames has turned into a star 1st baseman, maybe you look to move him. But I'm not that pessimistic on our outlook this year. I also probably shouldn't be that optimistic about Thames either -- it's still so early, and all of this conversation may end up being moot. But it's hard not to get excited about his production, especially when he has production in Korea to suggest that maybe it's not all just a fluke.

[jerichoholicninja]

Realistically, he's in his contract year when this team is (hopefully) a legitimate contender. They have no one to replace him right now but not trading him before then means the Brewers will get nothing in return. I suppose he's a QO possibility but I don't know if the team can/wants to afford a roughly $20M mid-30's 1B. If you get an amazing offer this year you pull the trigger but I really don't know what I would want the Brewers to do.

[paul253]

Yeah perhaps if we had something in the minors to replace Thames we could considered trading him. But we don't seem to have much at first and we don't seem to have a wealth of power hitters either. Stearns has shown a preference for toolsy up the middle type players so it wouldn't be a terrible idea to hang onto Thames.

[MrTPlush]

Baseball reference lists him as being arbitration eligible after his 3 year contract(with his player option possible too). If I remember right that is accurate. I don't think this team will take till 2021 to be a contender. I get he isn't young, but jesh we can't keep trading every player who doesn't fit the perfect model. If we do that we will have nothing. We will have to keep people who may hit FA early in our contending window. That is why it is important to keep finances in check and keep the young depth rolling in.

[Jenkins5]

If he is legit, run with it. Not sure GMs are going to buy all in based off Korea & half a season in majors of success. Aguilar gives an open door to do it but outside of him, Cooper & DeMuth aren't going to be the guys. Gatewood with continual progress is still 2-3 years away....

 

We have a fun & exciting lefty bat on good contract. He is also versatile. Ride it out. I wouldn't trade him until at earliest next deadline if he proves real. That will be height of his market imo. 31, proven track record, and still year & a half left of decent price tag control.

 

Me personally, despite all the homeruns, I don't miss Davis. He is an AL guy period. He was not a good defensive LF. Players could take all the extra bases in the world off him without hesitation. Absolute noodle for an arm. I enjoy Defensive of players. 40+ HRs is cool but much more to baseball than that. He can DH & play bad LF defense only. Not good for what Brewers like & are looking for.

[adambr2]

Baseball reference lists him as being arbitration eligible after his 3 year contract(with his player option possible too). If I remember right that is accurate. I don't think this team will take till 2021 to be a contender. I get he isn't young, but jesh we can't keep trading every player who doesn't fit the perfect model. If we do that we will have nothing. We will have to keep people who may hit FA early in our contending window. That is why it is important to keep finances in check and keep the young depth rolling in.

 

The Brewers can't offer arbitration to Thames at any point. The 4th year option though is a team one for $7.5M with a $1M buyout which will hopefully be a no-brainer to exercise.

 

All told, it could be a 4 year, $22.5M deal (plus some 500K bonuses Thames can get annually for plate appearances.) Hopefully he will get every penny and hopefully it will come out looking like pocket change.

[FVBrewerFan]

Absolutely you trade him if you can get a big haul in return. 31 year olds are not part of the future. But there's a reason Braun, Peralta, Guerra, etc. are still on the team. There was/is interest in all those guys, but if Stearns doesn't get what he wants you hold on to them. Thames will be no different. If he can get the haul the Brewers got for Lucroy/Jeffress or Gomez/Fiers absolutely I would jump on that.

 

Who would play 1B? Pretty close to the last worry I would have. Aguilar, Shaw, Perez, Santana, Braun, Cordell, Cooper, that's just off the top of my head. Not to mention cheap players who are available every year. Heck, Stearns found 3 of them the past two years.

 

Thames is a great story, and it's fun watching him. But I would have more fun 5 years from now knowing we got a couple players similar to Brinson and Ortiz under control for 6 years.

[SandyTolan]

Baseball reference lists him as being arbitration eligible after his 3 year contract(with his player option possible too). If I remember right that is accurate. I don't think this team will take till 2021 to be a contender. I get he isn't young, but jesh we can't keep trading every player who doesn't fit the perfect model. If we do that we will have nothing. We will have to keep people who may hit FA early in our contending window. That is why it is important to keep finances in check and keep the young depth rolling in.

 

This is what Baseball Reference says about the Thames contract. I find it confusing. Is he eligible to walk after 2019, or after 2021?

 

 

2017 Contract Status: Signed thru 2019, 3 yrs/$16M (17-19) & 20 player option

Service Time (01/2017): 1.063 • Arb Eligible: 2020 • Free Agent: 2022

[homer]

This is why his signing was so awesome. They literally gave up next to nothing to get him. In the end they will get either a king's ransom in prospects (assuming he keeps going on a 30 - 40 HR pace) or they get an All Star 1st baseman for three years.

[Madhawk23]

I think you'd have to get a haul for Thames though if you are trading him this year. I realize you want to strike while the iron is hot with his value, but I also wouldn't give him up for anything less than a major prospect haul in return right now. Obviously, it's still early and he still could fall on his face the rest of this year, but certainly an amazing start. Let's ride this out and see what the next few months bring for him. If he's hit 20+ bombs at the AS break with a .280 average and .400+ OBP, then we might have more to talk about at that point in time. Still though, I'd have to be completely blown away if I'm Stearns. Still though, wouldn't it be great to have all of these options.

[I Heart Brewers]

Still early but this is exciting. Keep mining those outlets for serviceable position players Mr. Stearns.

 

I mean if Thames, Peralta, and Feliz keep this up they could net some decent prospects, correct?

[FVBrewerFan]

Still early but this is exciting. Keep mining those outlets for serviceable position players Mr. Stearns.

 

I mean if Thames, Peralta, and Feliz keep this up they could net some decent prospects, correct?

 

Not decent prospects, great prospects.

 

If Feliz can keep it up, market has already shown over and over again what late inning relievers are worth at the trade deadline. Ditto for Knebel. And with Thames, Peralta, Nelson, Guerra, Anderson, Braun, Pina, Villar, etc. lots of guys that someone may want, and can be had for the right price. But the Brewers have control over all those guys, so no need to make a move withough getting great prospects back.

 

Depending how this year ends up, Brewers could very well have the #1 system in all of MLB.

[adambr2]

Baseball reference lists him as being arbitration eligible after his 3 year contract(with his player option possible too). If I remember right that is accurate. I don't think this team will take till 2021 to be a contender. I get he isn't young, but jesh we can't keep trading every player who doesn't fit the perfect model. If we do that we will have nothing. We will have to keep people who may hit FA early in our contending window. That is why it is important to keep finances in check and keep the young depth rolling in.

 

The Brewers can't offer arbitration to Thames at any point. The 4th year option though is a team one for $7.5M with a $1M buyout which will hopefully be a no-brainer to exercise.

 

All told, it could be a 4 year, $22.5M deal (plus some 500K bonuses Thames can get annually for plate appearances.) Hopefully he will get every penny and hopefully it will come out looking like pocket change.

 

Why does no one believe me?

 

We have Thames under 4 years of control including this year if we exercise his $7.5M CLUB option in 2020 after which he is a free agent and we cannot offer him arbitration.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18163116/milwaukee-brewers-sign-1b-eric-thames-3-year-deal

 

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/6534/eric-thames

(Click 'View Contract Details')

[MrTPlush]

Still early but this is exciting. Keep mining those outlets for serviceable position players Mr. Stearns.

 

I mean if Thames, Peralta, and Feliz keep this up they could net some decent prospects, correct?

 

If these guys keep it up we shouldn't be thinking about trading them cause we will be competing and really should be looking to do that next year. At some point you gotta stop trading every person who isn't controlled 5+ years. If this team is flirting with .500 at the end of the year it is time to consider adding guys from outside the organization and stop trading them away.

[FVBrewerFan]

No, that was the approach the last two times they made the playoffs. Tried to win that year, so buyers instead of sellers. Not even saying I disagree with that, a t the time it seemed worth it to go for it after 20+ years of mediocrity.

 

But it's different now. There is a real possibility this team can compete over an extended period of time, especially if they add even more top-end young talent. For those that want to go for it, I don't think you're wrong. It's just that I rather have a roster that can be a true contender for multiple years, rather than try to go for it this year or next year.

 

Could they add Hader and a couple other pieces and have a shot at the WC next year? Sure. But do we really believe this rotation, even with Hader, could compete for it all? I really want to believe that, but I can't. Hader is nowhere near being able to throw that any innings in a season, he will not be ready even next year to pitch in October.

 

I'm looking at 2020-2025 and beyond as the time they can really be a true contender. Maybe they can sneak up and make some noise before then, and that would be great. In the meantime though, I would not stop trading 30+ year olds, bullpen arms, and mid-rotation starters for a big haul.

[MrTPlush]

No, that was the approach the last two times they made the playoffs. Tried to win that year, so buyers instead of sellers.

 

I don't think I ever said we should trade the farm etc. etc. All I said is we should not be looking to trade every single thing that does good. Every single player that has broken out so to speak over the last year has a trade thread. Villar does, Thames does, all our controllable starters do, Broxton does...I mean that is a bit ridiculous. When do we think controllable piece for the next contending team and not trade bait?

 

By all means if we get some ridiculous trade offer for PeraltaNelson/etc. and net an Addison Russell go for it. However for some ok deal? We have some big time prospects coming up this year and more 3 years from now to keep things going when our veteran pieces are moving out. Add in some other guys along the way from other means and you can put together some solid teams.

 

The rebuild is over and this team is on the rise whether it continues to show in the W/L columns. Unless you get a fantastic trade offer keep anyone controllable 3+ years.

[FVBrewerFan]

When do we think controllable piece for the next contending team and not trade bait?

 

My answer for that starts with Hader, Woodruff, Brinson, and that group. Anyone who is currently on the 25 man can be moved if you get top prospects in return. Anyone.

 

And the thing is, the more Stearns sells, the better they seem to get in the short term too. Funny how Lucroy seemed like a huge loss, early on he hasn't been. Gomez and Fiers get traded, no loss. Jeffress, Smith, Thornburg leave, BP hasn't missed a beat. They don't bring Carter back, better off there too.

 

That's why I'm confident selling is the way to go. They're actually getting marginally better in the short term, and positioning to be way better in a couple years.

[mrn1ceguy]

No, that was the approach the last two times they made the playoffs. Tried to win that year, so buyers instead of sellers. Not even saying I disagree with that, a t the time it seemed worth it to go for it after 20+ years of mediocrity.

 

But it's different now. There is a real possibility this team can compete over an extended period of time, especially if they add even more top-end young talent. For those that want to go for it, I don't think you're wrong. It's just that I rather have a roster that can be a true contender for multiple years, rather than try to go for it this year or next year.

 

Could they add Hader and a couple other pieces and have a shot at the WC next year? Sure. But do we really believe this rotation, even with Hader, could compete for it all? I really want to believe that, but I can't. Hader is nowhere near being able to throw that any innings in a season, he will not be ready even next year to pitch in October.

 

I'm looking at 2020-2025 and beyond as the time they can really be a true contender. Maybe they can sneak up and make some noise before then, and that would be great. In the meantime though, I would not stop trading 30+ year olds, bullpen arms, and mid-rotation starters for a big haul.

 

If things go well this year, I could see this as a definite yes, even if we trade more of our veterans.

 

If I look at things optimistically (maybe too optimistically), it's possible Nelson, Peralta, and Anderson have turned the corner and finish this year like they have started, Davies rebounds to put up a good year like last year, and Guerra come back to pitch similar to what he did last year. That's maybe one #2, three #3 and a #4 starter. Trade one away at the deadline or off season and let Hader take the 5th spot. If all perform well, that's a solid (not great) rotation with Woodruff, Ortiz, Lopez ready to fill in for injuries in 2018.

 

As for the starters without trades, we have Braun, Broxton, Santana, Shaw, Villar, Arcia, Thames and Pina. Trade Braun, move Thames to LF and let Aguilar start at 1B (and probably get one more starting pitcher into the mix above). If one of Aguilar/Santana/Broxton falter, bring up Brinson and move them around accordingly. If most everyone performs either the way they did last year (Villar, Broxton, Braun), the way they are doing this year (Thames, Santana, Pina) or step-up/progress (Shaw, Arcia), that is a good (if not potentially great) set of starters. Not too mention they will have ready replacements in Dubon, Phillips, Cordell for 2018.

 

Put together a good bullpen and you have a team competing for the Wild Card, that is built for the long haul and has a wave of replacements likely in AA (Ray, Clark, Ecreg, Diaz, Gatewood, Diplan, Peralta, Ponce, and more). At that point you are able to handle trading away an established starter from almost any position for a monster package (i.e. Thames, Guerra, Broxton, Villar, whoever). But again, this is an optimistic (but not unreasonable) look at the future.