BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition

[Humans Need Water]

Overall, the Brewers are in a good position and definitely a better position than they were this point last year.

 

Agreed, but being better than last year was not my standard. They were billed as a top 5 system, some sources had them top 2 or 3. I mean, who cares what MY expectations are, I get that. Just saying, Top 10 has been really mediocre.

I was speaking in general giving my own opinion on the system (Top 30 mainly). I understand what you're getting at but the season isn't over. Not every elite player puts up other wordly numbers every level of the minors nor do it every single month throughout the season. Moncada's OPS is 100pts lower than it's "supposed" to be. In fact, he's had a 747 OPS since May 1. I don't think our Top 10 has been mediocre though when factoring everything in.

 

Brinson - great AAA, MLB debut

Ray - this is his first full season in pro ball and started season late due to injury. since May 1 is 265/357/783 (117 wRC+). he'll bump that up moving forward too. he's at a 28% line drive rate. that's excellent and means he's squaring balls up

Hader - CS is his issue. that's half the reason he's in the Brewers pen (other half being they desperately need him, plus he's lefty). we'll all see him produce the results he's had in past years

Ortiz - few bad starts otherwise absolutely killing it

Diaz - heading into June wasn't doing too bad actually 245/329/776 (112 wRC+) but past 10 games he's been terrible. he's fully capable of killing it in the 2nd half like last year

Clark - hasn't hit for average or power but his ability to work the count and get on base is insane. 2.5yrs young for level. will be interesting to see how he adjusts in the 2nd half hitting wise. this is also his first full season as last year only played like 55 games due to injuries

Erceg - struggling everywhere but his talent is still clear as day. it'll click eventually

Woodruff - has been great at times and been hit at times. but he's pounding the zone and attacking. CS is an issue with him too

Dubon - since May 1 is 303/366/776 (127 wRC+) and been killing it on the bases

Phillips - great AAA, MLB debut

 

BB and K rates on season

Ray 11% BB, 32% K

Diaz 13% BB, 24% K

Clark 17% BB, 27% K

Erceg 4% BB, 19% K

 

Ray is striking out way too much for his skill set but that will come down. He's also hitting line drives almost 30% of his ABs. That's nuts. Diaz's numbers are good for both. Clark's BB rate is nunzeo and he'll bring his K rate down as he develops because he's very young for level. Erceg's BB rate sucks but his K rate is good.

 

The reason I listed the above is because it proves that we can't ultimately judge them in full one way or the other because, collectively, they're hitting the ball and walking. Given their overall numbers are what they are the questions I have would be - what are their overall contact rates, what about contact rates for pitches swung at inside and outside the zone, exit velocity, soft/medium/hard contact rates. We don't have answers to these questions. We have box scores, which we all know don't tell the entire story. Unless you're going through Game Cast every night seeing what they actually do every AB we won't have these answers and this info matters and can tell a story for how well they're actually swinging the bat.

 

I get that these guys are all 1st and 2nd rd picks and there are certain expectations as a result of that but this is the first full season of pro ball for Ray and Erceg. Clark is young and Diaz hasn't been as bad as his numbers suggest. They're going to have growing pains even if they're advanced college bats. How they adjust and grow throughout the season will be more telling than what they've done through 2 full months at this point. Hader and Woodruff, for me, I pay no attention to what they do in CS because they just need to get their innings in.

[82brewcrew82]

Not many teams are going to have 3-4 studs in their system at one time. With more marginal talent, you are going to have to deal with a much less linear development than you will with a blue chip prospect. In other words, struggles and rough stretches will be more common. You really have to take the long view and see where things stand at the end of the year.

 

The best minor league systems do though.. The Dodgers the last 2 years have produced some ridiculous elite level talent that have been brought to the majors (Seager, Bellinger, Urias) The Nationals have had a couple (Turner, Devers, AND the elite pitchers they traded away). The Cubs are self Explanatory. The Astros as well. The Braves have a couple elite pitchers it looks like as well as just having Dansby called up and waiting on Albies. I was hoping at least one player could make that jump this year and None have. Gatewood has maybe made the jump to get close to being in the top 100, but no player has jumped into the elite discussion. That is why I have been disappointed so far.

 

That's my point. What we are missing is that "elite" prospect. We don't have one and there isn't a single player in the system that I would have classified as "elite" when drafted. Sure, a few teams have multiple studs in their system, but the vast majority do not. If your expecting non-elite prospects to reach elite levels, you are bound to be disappointed.

[82brewcrew82]

Also, I think Devers is a Red Sox prospect and I don't think the elite pitching the Nationals traded away is really considered all that elite any more.

[82brewcrew82]

Not many teams are going to have 3-4 studs in their system at one time. With more marginal talent, you are going to have to deal with a much less linear development than you will with a blue chip prospect. In other words, struggles and rough stretches will be more common. You really have to take the long view and see where things stand at the end of the year.

 

No, but the top systems do and the Brewers were supposed to be one of them. Even back the system wasn't great they had Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Yo, Braun at the same time.

 

But yea, nothing we can do about that but wait and hope some of these guys do develop into elite players.

 

 

When were the Brewers supposed to be one of them. I think the knock on this system for the last two or three years has been the lack of elite level talent. The system gets high grades because of it's depth. Not it's high end talent. I'm pretty sure that when Fielder, Hart, Cruz, Hardy, and Weeks were coming through, the system was very highly regarded for high end talent. There were other players in that group that never did pan out.

[82brewcrew82]

For me,as the season has continued I have been more dissapointed than anything else.. That is mainly because I look for the top tier prospects to produce or get better throughout the year. Especially when in A+ ball or lower. Diaz, Diplan, Erceg, Clark fall into that category.

 

I have been impressed with some lower ranked prospects that will get a big bump in their ratings in the future. Those are: Feliciano, Gatewood, Harrison, Supak, and Burnes.

 

All in all I have said this team is loaded with depth, but lacks that elite player (s), and this year is showing that to be true again. Outside the AAA team, there are not alot of guys hitting .300 or having an OPS above .800

 

I think this is the big issue when it comes to these debates about the system as a whole. There are no elite level prospects that are going to dominate with huge numbers all the way through the system. We have some guys that will be regulars, maybe even all stars, but those are the kinds of guys that have up and down development cycles. We don't have that guy that is going to OPS 850+ at every singe level. If that is what you are expecting, then you are going to be disappointed. If your expectations are more aligned with the actual talent level, then you are probably in the more optimistic camp.

 

 

Are you saying there are none, or are you saying we have none in our system? If you are saying the latter I agree. To say there are no elite level prospects who put up around .300 ba and around .850 Ops throughout all minor league systems is just wrong. Robles, Moncada, Rosario, Jimenez, Devers, Mejia, Acuna just to name a few that are top 100 prospects right now that have put up those numbers on all levels.. there are plenty of those examples of guys in the MLB too(look at Keiths Law of Top players under 26 in the MLB, they all raked throughout all of MLB). That is what makes them thought of being the elites of the minor league prospects and elites of MILB)... I agree its not all stats, but stats do tell you some info and for guys like Erceg and Diaz I expected at least their OPS to be much better.. I was hoping one or a couple guys could elevate themselves into the belief of scouts that they are the other elite prospects, but that hasn't happened. Hence why I am a little unimpressed with the minors so far, but there is another half of the season left. Def will be looking for improvements from the Carolina squad.

 

Of course elite level talent exists in the minors and more was added today. I think my post pretty clearly states that this talent does not exist in the Brewers system right now.

[Boomer5]

Carolina has been my biggest disappointment so far. That was supposed to be a monster lineup with some very advanced bats and we just aren't seeing it.

 

I would tend to agree with other posters here. We have added depth but we haven't added the next Braun or Fielder.

 

Brinson could be that guy, it's just so tough to gauge due to CS, but the tools are certainly there. I'm not writing off Ray, Clark, or Diaz of course but you need to see guys that highly rated not struggle in A+ ball.

[nate82]

The expectations of some on this board for low minor players is rather comical.

[82brewcrew82]

The expectations of some on this board for low minor players is rather comical.

 

It really is.

[CheezWizHed]

If we look back at the Braun/Fielder/Hardy/Weeks/Hart era, those guys were can't miss prospects that produced at a high level at each MiLB level (esp Braun/Fielder).

 

I think the expectations (or maybe hope is a better word) being expressed is that there really isn't anyone that is showing himself to be a standout, can't miss prospect. Lots of good players that will be quality MLBers some day. But only a few people that you can say he is the X (CF, SS, 2B, etc..) of the future.

[82brewcrew82]

If we look back at the Braun/Fielder/Hardy/Weeks/Hart era, those guys were can't miss prospects that produced at a high level at each MiLB level (esp Braun/Fielder).

 

I think the expectations (or maybe hope is a better word) being expressed is that there really isn't anyone that is showing himself to be a standout, can't miss prospect. Lots of good players that will be quality MLBers some day. But only a few people that you can say he is the X (CF, SS, 2B, etc..) of the future.

 

 

And I don't think anyone is arguing that point. I'll be the first to tell you we don't have can't miss talent in the system. I don't recall any payer drafted in recent memory to be considered a can't miss prospect either. We have drafted some guys that were projected to be very good, but I don't recall any of them being labeled as a sure fire perennial all star. So the question then becomes, if we don't have that talent level, whey are we disappointed we don't see that level of production?

[Outlander]

I'm not really disappointed but with all of these trades and drafts if they don't acquire a Braun or Fielder type talent I will be disappointed. So I am not looking for any particular player to be that player but hopefully one emerges.

[paul253]

. I don't recall any payer drafted in recent memory to be considered a can't miss prospect either.

 

I think Weeks was close to a can't miss prospect when he was drafted. And I think after a year or two in the minors Braun and Fielder we both considered can't miss type prospects as well. Pitching is another matter. I don't recall ever having a can't miss pitching prospect in our system.

 

I was really hoping we'd add an elite level talent this year in the draft but I don't get that sense with Hiura. Only time will tell of course but I'm really concerned about his defensive issues. He'll definitely need to hit his way into elite status.

[82brewcrew82]

. I don't recall any payer drafted in recent memory to be considered a can't miss prospect either.

 

I think Weeks was close to a can't miss prospect when he was drafted. And I think after a year or two in the minors Braun and Fielder we both considered can't miss type prospects as well. Pitching is another matter. I don't recall ever having a can't miss pitching prospect in our system.

 

I was really hoping we'd add an elite level talent this year in the draft but I don't get that sense with Hiura. Only time will tell of course but I'm really concerned about his defensive issues. He'll definitely need to hit his way into elite status.

 

 

Right, I was speaking more to the post Braun draft era. Specifically, no one in the system currently.

[paul253]

Oh ok. Yeah we've had some really poor draft picks lately.

[nate82]

If we look back at the Braun/Fielder/Hardy/Weeks/Hart era, those guys were can't miss prospects that produced at a high level at each MiLB level (esp Braun/Fielder).

 

I think the expectations (or maybe hope is a better word) being expressed is that there really isn't anyone that is showing himself to be a standout, can't miss prospect. Lots of good players that will be quality MLBers some day. But only a few people that you can say he is the X (CF, SS, 2B, etc..) of the future.

 

I will give you Corey Hart though he basically mashed at every stop but Braun, Weeks, Hardy and Fielder didn't exactly produce at a high level at each MiLB level.

 

Weeks 2004 at AA:

.259/.366/.407

 

Hardy 2003 at AA:

.279/.368/.428

 

Braun 2006 at A+:

.274/.346/.438 in A+

 

Prince 2004 at AA:

.272/.366/.473

 

And for comparison this years players:

Gatewood at A+:

.292/.371/.496

 

Feliciano at A this is very impressive for an 18 year old catcher:

.266/.335/.367

 

Dubon at AA:

.289/.347/.370

 

While none of the current players are can't miss prospects to say that they are not doing well is a flat out lie and the expectations here are rather overly high. Gatewood and Dubon are having years similar to what some of the can't miss prospects have done. Hart for example in 2002 at A+ put up this stat line: .288/.356/.573 at a more hitter friendly league. Gatewood is close to matching what Hart did in 2002 and he is producing at a high level this year.

[FVBrewerFan]

So you picked the worst year by those guys, and they were all .800ish. Proves my point. We're not seeing that from Ray, Diaz, Clark, Dubon, Erceg, Lara, Nottingham, etc. They are not doing well. A couple are doing "fine" most are mediocre.

[paul253]

Is this a development issue? Guys like Clark and Coulter and Ray and Nottingham are not bad hitters. Is it is something we are doing to them that is causing them to have such poor offensive numbers? Rushing players too much? Unnecessarily tweaking batting stances? Putting too much focus on power? It just can't be a coincidence that hardly any of these highly thought of prospects are having above average seasons offensively and I don't mean just his one season. Nottingham hasn't been good since he's got here. Ray has done nothing since being drafted and Clark seems like he should still be in Wisconsin. Diaz and Erceg shouldn't be struggling this much in A+, not after how good they were last year. And don't even get me started on Lara. He's been just awful.

[nate82]

So you picked the worst year by those guys, and they were all .800ish. Proves my point. We're not seeing that from Ray, Diaz, Clark, Dubon, Erceg, Lara, Nottingham, etc. They are not doing well. A couple are doing "fine" most are mediocre.

 

That was the point of the post. Even some of the can't miss guys had years where their stats were just merely ok.

[paul253]

That was the point of the post. Even some of the can't miss guys had years where their stats were just merely ok.

 

If only some of our current prospects could have seasons that were "merely ok" then becuase our current guys aren't even in the same league as prospects as Braun, Fielder, Weeks and even Hart were, and neither are the numbers they are putting up in the minors.

 

Other than Brinson and maybe Diaz I don't think there are any players in our system I can ever see being an all star, let alone a consistent star. I don't know what has happened but we just don't seem to be getting as much out of our prospects as we used to.

[nate82]

That was the point of the post. Even some of the can't miss guys had years where their stats were just merely ok.

 

If only some of our current prospects could have seasons that were "merely ok" then becuase our current guys aren't even in the same league as prospects as Braun, Fielder, Weeks and even Hart were, and neither are the numbers they are putting up in the minors.

 

Other than Brinson and maybe Diaz I don't think there are any players in our system I can ever see being an all star, let alone a consistent star. I don't know what has happened but we just don't seem to be getting as much out of our prospects as we used to.

 

Gatewood looks like a potential All Star with the year he is having. But it looks like he is being ignored here.

 

If Gatewood continues to play like he has he may end up with a really good year.

[paul253]

Gatewood is having a good half season. He was horrible in Wisconsin the last two seasons. I'm certainly hoping he's figured something out. He's definitely taking more walks. But he has a long way to go in my mind to be someone who should be considered a possible allstar at the Major League level.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, I'm not ignoring Gatewood. We were talking about the top prospects, top 10. Now Gatewood may or may not crack that list mid-season. But either way, I don't see him as a stud, at least not yet. We realize the entire minor league system is not a bust. There are bright spots. But for a system that was regarded as top 3-5 in MLB, just not seeing the star power to justify it....YET.

[reillymcshane]

Yea, I'm not ignoring Gatewood. We were talking about the top prospects, top 10. Now Gatewood may or may not crack that list mid-season. But either way, I don't see him as a stud, at least not yet. We realize the entire minor league system is not a bust. There are bright spots. But for a system that was regarded as top 3-5 in MLB, just not seeing the star power to justify it....YET.

Even before the season, the lack of star power was the Brewer system's biggest flaw - at least in the eyes of many analysts. We had a lot of good prospects - but there were no really, really great players - no can't miss guys. Brinson was/is probably the closet thing we had to that - but even he has his warts. That system assessment is probably still true.

 

I think the most disappointing thing for people on this board has been the poor seasons of Erceg and Diaz. Both looked great last year - and everyone hoped they'd build on their previous success.

 

Personally, I'm disappointed in Clark's year. I thought he'd rebound now that he was healthy. I'm cautiously optimistic about Ray, but the K rate spike is concerning.

 

I do want to point out that last year Diaz had a .232 BA and an OPS of .679 in the first half of the year. The point is that we still have over half a season to go - and so much can happen (both good and bad). Sure I wish he was hitting .300 - but it hasn't happened, and let's just hope he (and others) can get back on track.

[CheezWizHed]

1st round pick comparisons:

Braun (drafted 5th overall) : 1025, 871, 1119

Fielder's (7th): 998, 935, 839, 957

Weeks (2nd): 1052, 773, 1090

 

Clark (15th): 854, 690, 680*

Ray (5th): 678, 738*

Haniger(38th): 808, 779, 746, 883, 999

Roache(28th): 762, 697, 763, 749, 618*

Coulter(27th): 883, 714, 930, 725, 664, 739*

*2017- partial year

 

Braun, Weeks and Fielder did not have bad years. Each one one "down" year, but that "down" year was still pretty good. Very different from our current guys.

[82brewcrew82]

1st round pick comparisons:

Braun (drafted 5th overall) : 1025, 871, 1119

Fielder's (7th): 998, 935, 839, 957

Weeks (2nd): 1052, 773, 1090

 

Clark (15th): 854, 690, 680*

Ray (5th): 678, 738*

Haniger(38th): 808, 779, 746, 883, 999

Roache(28th): 762, 697, 763, 749, 618*

Coulter(27th): 883, 714, 930, 725, 664, 739*

*2017- partial year

 

Braun, Weeks and Fielder did not have bad years. Each one one "down" year, but that "down" year was still pretty good. Very different from our current guys.

 

You'd have a hard time convincing me that anyone currently in the system would belong in the same conversation as Braun, Fielder, or Weeks as prospects. Those guys were blue chip players. I know Ray was a tip five pick but not all draft classes are created equal.