Truth or Overreaction?

[adambr2]

1. This team looks like it'll be pretty bad. Take the under on 70 wins.

2. Perez was a one year wonder who hit his ceiling last year.

3. Broxton's 2nd half 2016 was a fluke, we wont see that player again.

4. Aguilar should get as many ABs as Thames this year.

5. Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson will all be better than Davies this year.

6. This team will break the all time MLB strikeout record of 1543 - set by the 2016 Brewers.

7. Villar will never play passably well anywhere in the IF.

[rwa12]

1. Overreaction

2. Overreaction

3. Overreaction (though, I think he's just going to be a Geoff Jenkins-esque streaky player)

4. Truth, but because both will earn it

5. Overreaction All 3 will not be.

6. Truth

7. Overreaction

[And That]

I mean, by definition if the choices are only truth or overreaction, none of those things are ultimately knowable at this point, so the dichotomy suggests overreaction.

[adambr2]

I mean, by definition if the choices are only truth or overreaction, none of those things are ultimately knowable at this point, so the dichotomy suggests overreaction.

 

I could change the title to 'I believe this will happen,' or 'This is an overreaction,' If you prefer.

[JohnBriggs12]

1-6 are overreaction. 7 is truth. Village's defensive issues stem from concentration lapses. Moving him will have zero effect. Can't give up on Perez or Broxton. Perez won VEL batting title. He smoked one to C.F. that was caught yesterday. He'll be fine. Davies is slow starter. This is better than a 70 win team.

[ewitkows]

I'm not high on Perez and I bet the over on the brewers at 69.5

[Ennder]

1. Overreaction

2. Well I'd call this truth but I still think he is a useful major league player

3. I still expect Broxton to be a very good player. He needs to learn to lay off the high fastball though.

4. If he does it will be because they are both solid. I have been impressed by Thames overall plate approach so far.

5. I doubt all 3 are, one or two might be. Davies seemed to find his command later in the game in his last start. Hopefully it stays for the next start.

6. Very possible.

7. Probably not

[Boomer5]

1. This team looks like it'll be pretty bad. Take the under on 70 wins. Truth

2. Perez was a one year wonder who hit his ceiling last year. Im on the fence here. Probably not as good as last year, but not as bad as he has looked.

3. Broxton's 2nd half 2016 was a fluke, we wont see that player again. Too soon to tell, especially factoring in his HBP

4. Aguilar should get as many ABs as Thames this year. Truth, I really like how Aguilar handles the glove too.

5. Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson will all be better than Davies this year. Too soon.

6. This team will break the all time MLB strikeout record of 1543 - set by the 2016 Brewers. Truth

7. Villar will never play passably well anywhere in the IF. Truth though I suppose it depends on your definition of passable.

[MoreTrife]

1. Overreaction

2. Overreaction

3. Overreaction (though, I think he's just going to be a Geoff Jenkins-esque streaky player)

4. Truth, but because both will earn it

5. Overreaction All 3 will not be.

6. Truth

7. Overreaction

 

 

Good questions but I agree with all these answers.

[645]

1. This team looks like it'll be pretty bad. Take the under on 70 wins.

 

That is very much a unknown. The team that finishes the season will be better then the team that starts it but how long it takes to come around will deside if that is the truth or a Overreaction.

 

2. Perez was a one year wonder who hit his ceiling last year.

 

You can argue he is what he is and he is young enough to remain that for a few more years.

 

3. Broxton's 2nd half 2016 was a fluke, we wont see that player again.

 

He wasn't good long enough to call it a fluke to begain with. He still very much unproven. So who knows what you'll get.

 

4. Aguilar should get as many ABs as Thames this year.

 

Yes

 

5. Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson will all be better than Davies this year.

 

I don't got a clue. Maybe , Maybe Not

 

6. This team will break the all time MLB strikeout record of 1543 - set by the 2016 Brewers.

 

Most likely not but you can never know.

 

7. Villar will never play passably well anywhere in the IF.

 

Overreaction

[monty57]

1. This team looks like it'll be pretty bad. Take the under on 70 wins.

2. Perez was a one year wonder who hit his ceiling last year.

3. Broxton's 2nd half 2016 was a fluke, we wont see that player again.

4. Aguilar should get as many ABs as Thames this year.

5. Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson will all be better than Davies this year.

6. This team will break the all time MLB strikeout record of 1543 - set by the 2016 Brewers.

7. Villar will never play passably well anywhere in the IF.

 

1) Overreaction. We've played two very good teams and we lost Guerra three innings into the season. Things will get better

 

2) Slight overreaction. He may have had his best year last year, but he can still be a valuable super-utility guy.

 

3) Overreaction. He may not put up the MVP-caliber numbers he had in the 2nd half of last year over an entire year (few can), but I think he can be a good player.

 

4) Barring injury, I doubt it. Aguilar is hot, but there's a reason we got him on the waiver wire. Unless he's the second coming of David Ortiz, we're likely to see him cool off and turn into a useful power bat off the bench who occasionally spells Thames at first base. I think Thames has a much better chance of being sustainably good than Aguilar.

 

5) A year ago, we thought Nelson was our ace-in-the-making, and Peralta was our #1. I hope both of them regain that lost luster, as both of them have the talent to be better than Davies, even if Davies is on. Anderson and Davies should be somewhere in the 3-5 slots of a decent rotation.

 

6) Quite possibly, but I hope not.

 

7) I would say Villar will never play well at an IF position. Technically, everyone who has ever played has been "passable" in someone's eyes.

[endaround]

1. This team looks like it'll be pretty bad. Take the under on 70 wins.

2. Perez was a one year wonder who hit his ceiling last year.

3. Broxton's 2nd half 2016 was a fluke, we wont see that player again.

4. Aguilar should get as many ABs as Thames this year.

5. Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson will all be better than Davies this year.

6. This team will break the all time MLB strikeout record of 1543 - set by the 2016 Brewers.

7. Villar will never play passably well anywhere in the IF.

 

1. There is a reason fangraphs has every single position on the Brewers in the 20s except LF and 1B. There are a lot of players that need to prove themselves still before they even are considered average starters. The Brewers are not good.

2. Probably. he was likely to regress some but yes he isn't terrible like he is now. He's a decent utility player.

3. He had a BABIP of .425 so yeah it was a fluke. He's likely more of an 800 OPS player than a 950 one

4. Already giving up on Santana? Or Braun does get traded shortly? Only way that makes sense.

5. Maybe but I still like Davies. Of course, MLB wants to kill his value. No other pitcher depended on the low strike as much as Davies and MLB looks to be trying to take it away.

6. Probably.

7. I think he could handle 1B

[MrTPlush]

I will do this as a prediction thing holding zero weight on the past week. Because some of you are looking way to deep into a few games.

 

 

1. This team looks like it'll be pretty bad. Take the under on 70 wins.

 

OVERREACTION: I think this team will fair better against none elite opponents this year. I think it mostly hinges on the bullpen closing out enough games.

 

2. Perez was a one year wonder who hit his ceiling last year.

 

TRUTH: He did hit his ceiling last year and I don't think he will ever be that good again. He has an MLB future though.

 

3. Broxton's 2nd half 2016 was a fluke, we wont see that player again.

 

TRUTH: Somewhat of a given he isn't a superstar player. How far he will decline is the question.

 

4. Aguilar should get as many ABs as Thames this year.

 

OVERREACTION: Tough one as both are pretty good mysterys at this point. I think he will get similar PAs, but mostly because I don't think all that highly of Thames and to a degree Santana.

 

5. Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson will all be better than Davies this year.

 

TRUTH: Seems like a solid candidate for a second year slump. I also think if the low strike gets called less it will greatly hurt Davies. Though odds tell you him being the 4th best guy is a bad bet.

 

6. This team will break the all time MLB strikeout record of 1543 - set by the 2016 Brewers.

 

TRUTH: Pretty confident in this one.

 

7. Villar will never play passably well anywhere in the IF.

 

OVERREACTION: What is passably first of all? I disagree with it though. Many scouts last year said Villar was good enough at short to stick there with his offense and didn't think it was as bad as people here think. Obviously if his offense dips he can't, but I could say that about most MLB players.

[Jenkins5]

1. This team looks like it'll be pretty bad. Take the under on 70 wins.

 

True right now. CC had to get these guys to start playing good baseball. Errors, baserunning & Ks can't stay at this pace. They are playing ugly brand of ball right now.

 

2. Perez was a one year wonder who hit his ceiling last year.

 

Overreaction

He is what he is. He can play great defense everywhere. That alone has great value. His bat is nice. He won't walk because it's never been his thing but he barrels up ball. It's not like he is not hitting ball hard. Just not finding holes.

 

3. Broxton's 2nd half 2016 was a fluke, we wont see that player again.

 

Overreaction

It's coming, just wait for it. The tear is on it's way. Have teammate hit him in nuts every time he swings at tempting unhittable high fastballs... he"lol figure it out quicker.

 

4. Aguilar should get as many ABs as Thames this year.

 

True, his approach at plate is wonderful to watch right now. His defense is much better than I expected. Guy can play & is energized to finally get an opportunity to prove worth.

 

5. Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson will all be better than Davies this year.

 

Peralta & Nelson yes. Anderson no.

 

6. This team will break the all time MLB strikeout record of 1543 - set by the 2016 Brewers

 

Very well could be true

 

7. Villar will never play passably well anywhere in the IF.

 

Overreaction

He had excel range at SS, great strong arm, has tools.... but like lot of his game, he has a lot of lapses. Think he will be fine as season goes on. He is not Rickie or Gennett out there. He really has the skill set to be plus defensive 2B. Give it time to click. Seems he is living in his own head right & cant break mental block.

[brewcrewdue80]

1. This team looks like it'll be pretty bad. Take the under on 70 wins.

Overreaction. 29runs in 7games with the strugglers. Gas Cans being used at pitching that are addressed before this season ends

 

2. Perez was a one year wonder who hit his ceiling last year.

Truth. Doesn't have good ABs to think he can reproduce last year's stats with less playing time Candidate for 1st traded.

 

3. Broxton's 2nd half 2016 was a fluke, we wont see that player again.

Overreaction. I mean come on he's been hit in the face and sat two games. Maybe not putting up 2nd half stats, but better overall stats than what he finished with for 2016.

 

4. Aguilar should get as many ABs as Thames this year.

C- Neither. Thames possesses the Lefty bat in a platoon which makes his Game playing time more often. At the same time I want Aguilar to get as many plate appearances as there is for him available.

 

5. Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson will all be better than Davies this year.

OverReaction I think it was very bad strategy to put Milone in a game that also featured Suter, and follow the game up with Davies. You're giving that team multiple looks at upper 80s who was more prepared for Davies' start than Davies was for no lower strikezone.

6. This team will break the all time MLB strikeout record of 1543 - set by the 2016 Brewers.

Overreaction This is a better offensive team than last year's. But it's very young in PA's. They'll improve as the year moves along.

 

7. Villar will never play passably well anywhere in the IF.

Overreaction. He's less experienced at 2b and MLB overall. He missed much of the Spring for the WBC and noted he didn't get the starts. You can say he's a mental midget, so if true, being behind on Spring ABs and on Defense at 2b would really put him behind schedule that he's on the learning timeclock.

[3and2Fastball]

Too early to say on any of this.

 

In general I wouldn't be surprised if everything you wrote ends up true but it is just too early to say. The Under on 70 wins does seem like a relatively safe bet

[JohnBriggs12]

Too early to say on any of this.

 

In general I wouldn't be surprised if everything you wrote ends up true but it is just too early to say. The Under on 70 wins does seem like a relatively safe bet

 

If Barnes and Knebel continue to perform like they have the first week, they'll easily top 70 wins. Villar may make 30 errors and fan 200 times and that will be hard to overcome though.

[adambr2]

Too early to say on any of this.

 

In general I wouldn't be surprised if everything you wrote ends up true but it is just too early to say. The Under on 70 wins does seem like a relatively safe bet

 

If Barnes and Knebel continue to perform like they have the first week, they'll easily top 70 wins. Villar may make 30 errors and fan 200 times and that will be hard to overcome though.

 

Why is it that its too early to tell on everyone, 8 games into the season, small sample size, nothing to worry about with guys like Perez and his .154 OBP, but for Villar all the small samples matter?

[wallus]

 

Why is it that its too early to tell on everyone, 8 games into the season, small sample size, nothing to worry about with guys like Perez and his .154 OBP, but for Villar all the small samples matter?

 

Because Villar isn't one of his "guys", you should know this by now.

[clancyphile]

1. This team looks like it'll be pretty bad. Take the under on 70 wins.

2. Perez was a one year wonder who hit his ceiling last year.

3. Broxton's 2nd half 2016 was a fluke, we wont see that player again.

4. Aguilar should get as many ABs as Thames this year.

5. Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson will all be better than Davies this year.

6. This team will break the all time MLB strikeout record of 1543 - set by the 2016 Brewers.

7. Villar will never play passably well anywhere in the IF.

 

1. Too soon to tell

2. Overreaction at this point in time

3. Too soon to tell - he did have a broken wrist.

4. Too soon to tell

5. Too soon to tell - but that is a good thing id Davies rights the ship

6. Overreaction

7. Overreaction - his bat is such that I'm not gonna sweat errors.

[JohnBriggs12]

Too early to say on any of this.

 

In general I wouldn't be surprised if everything you wrote ends up true but it is just too early to say. The Under on 70 wins does seem like a relatively safe bet

 

If Barnes and Knebel continue to perform like they have the first week, they'll easily top 70 wins. Villar may make 30 errors and fan 200 times and that will be hard to overcome though.

 

Why is it that its too early to tell on everyone, 8 games into the season, small sample size, nothing to worry about with guys like Perez and his .154 OBP, but for Villar all the small samples matter?

 

Because he led all of baseball in errors last year and most were the same kind he's making this year? In other words, not position specific.

[FVBrewerFan]

Not to mention blunders on the base paths, which is not a small sample either. Happened all of last year, and no sign he has improved at all there.

[MrTPlush]

Disagree Briggs. He was exponentially worse at 3B. So much different it was definitely position specific.

[MrTPlush]

Not to mention blunders on the base paths, which is not a small sample either. Happened all of last year, and no sign he has improved at all there.

 

It actually improved greatly last year when the Brewers stopped being "aggressive" on the basepaths with him. Still way too many blunders though....way too many.

[monty57]

Too early to say on any of this.

 

In general I wouldn't be surprised if everything you wrote ends up true but it is just too early to say. The Under on 70 wins does seem like a relatively safe bet

 

If Barnes and Knebel continue to perform like they have the first week, they'll easily top 70 wins. Villar may make 30 errors and fan 200 times and that will be hard to overcome though.

 

Why is it that its too early to tell on everyone, 8 games into the season, small sample size, nothing to worry about with guys like Perez and his .154 OBP, but for Villar all the small samples matter?

 

With Villar, we're looking at whether he can be a good starting player for us, while for Perez we're looking at whether he can be a decent super-utility guy.

 

Perez has shown an inability to walk his whole career, so he probably won't start now. He can still be a decent super-utility guy. Villar played bad defense last year, and is continuing to play bad defense this year. That seriously negates his potential to be a valuable starter for us for a few years and a valuable trade chip in a few years.

 

We were never told that the Brewers were hoping Perez would suddenly take walks this season. We were told that the Brewers felt a move to 2B would be more natural for Villar, and they expected him to be a better defender there, and so far (in a small sample of games) he has not been a good defender there. I'm not calling for his head, but there is reason to have some worry, and the potential negative from Villar not being able to hold down a position is far greater than the potential negative from Perez not improving his walk rate. Conversely, the potential positive if Villar stops making the mental errors is tremendous. He could be a valuable player, even an All-Star, if he can put things together.

 

That potential is why I'm far more concerned over what's going on with Villar than anything that can happen with Perez.