Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan

[JosephC]

I have to disagree. If Otani gets to the majors, is consistently hitting 100 MPH on the radar gun and goes through about 10 starts and is mowing down MLB hitters then his day of taking regular at-bats will be a thing of the past. If the team that has him thinks he is a legitimate ace pitcher there is no way they will expose him to injury on his pitching off days (hit by pitch, foul ball off his leg, injured running the bases). They will also immediately worry about how batting on all those non-pitching days early in the season will affect his mound performance later in the year. It seems like MLB teams get more and more careful with starting pitchers with each season, it's pretty easy to envision 6 man rotations being the normal 15 years down the road. I just don't see any team allowing an ace pitcher to be a regular lineup player on his non-pitching days.

 

But of course every team that offers him a deal will tell him whatever line of crap they think he wants to hear.

[MrTPlush]

But of course every team that offers him a deal will tell him whatever line of crap they think he wants to hear.

 

Disagree. A team is not going to promise him a lot of PAs and then cut them off because he is pitching too good. If they have that idea they would tell him up front what their plan is. We are talking about a guy who is considering coming over here to play for pennies. Pull that kind of stuff and he will just leave, good luck getting another Japanese player, and have fun with FAs for awhile.

[jerichoholicninja]

But of course every team that offers him a deal will tell him whatever line of crap they think he wants to hear.

 

Disagree. A team is not going to promise him a lot of PAs and then cut them off because he is pitching too good. If they have that idea they would tell him up front what their plan is. We are talking about a guy who is considering coming over here to play for pennies. Pull that kind of stuff and he will just leave, good luck getting another Japanese player, and have fun with FAs for awhile.

 

Joe is probably right. I highly doubt any team is going to actually allow him to get anywhere near regular at bats if he is a halfway decent pitcher. Pitchers coming from Japan have had a much higher success rate than hitters. Hideki Matsui and Ichiro are the only ones I can think of that were anywhere near the hitter they were in Japan and both had major drop offs in power and OBP. Now bring over a guy who's team is probably going to have him focus mostly on pitching and who knows what kind of a drop off you get. If he's a sub .750 OPS hitter, is that worth the injury risk?

 

I'd love to see someone give him a chance and I would pull hard for him to succeed but I really doubt anyone will give him a fair chance.

[pacopete4]

If he's smart, he'll put it in his contract about getting at bats. And if a team won't he can always just stay playing where he is.

[Eye Black]

I realize the odds of acquiring Otani remain small, but the Brewers have just traded Magnifico for $885,300 in International bonus money, raising their total spending allotment to $6,135,300. It would appear that continuing this trend of trading for additional International bonus money would at least present an opportunity to offer the highest signing bonus to Otani (assuming they don't sign the other International players they have been connected to).

 

EDIT: The $885,300 is apparently for the current signing period, so expires on June 15th and next year's bonus pool is still at $5.25 million. Still, trading for International bonus pool money would be appear to be a necessary option for whatever teams make an attempt to sign Otani.

[jerichoholicninja]

If he's smart, he'll put it in his contract about getting at bats. And if a team won't he can always just stay playing where he is.

 

I would guess that's not allowed. If it were, every 4A guy would want something similar in their contract.

[Eye Black]

Taking a closer look at the current International signing bonus rules, any team can trade for up to 75% of their initial International bonus pool. This means the Brewers could acquire enough International signing bonus money via trade to have a total pool amount that would top out at $9,187,500.

 

There are only five teams that could potentially trade for a larger pool at this point... D'backs, Indians, Rockies, Pirates, Orioles. Those teams all have an initial bonus pool of $5.75 million without any restrictions from going over their allotment during the previous International signing period.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

What is the motivation for other teams to deal those slots Eye Black?

[Eye Black]

What is the motivation for other teams to deal those slots Eye Black?

There are 11 teams that can't sign any International player for more than $300,000 because of exceeding their allotments previously. Those teams could either use their pools to sign a whole bunch of players under $300K, or they could trade portions of their bonus pool for other assets such as prospects or major league players. Otherwise a team like the Orioles doesn't typically spend money in Latin America, so they may be willing to trade away bonus pool money for the same type of trade returns.

[MrTPlush]

Not saying a team would want him getting a ton of at-bats if he is a decent pitcher. That being said you aren't going to BS him and lie acting like you are. You would tell him that straight up from the beginning. He would likely go to a team promising him both regardless.

[chuckiehacks]

From Keith Law's chat yesterday, he's not a believer in Otani's bat.

 

Ricky: If/When Otani comes over, is he viewed as a two way player?

Keith Law: Nope. This is going to be the most-asked question of 2017, I think. NPB pitching is not close to MLB pitching as a whole.

[brewcrewdue80]

If Otani is playing out his season this year, is he positively going to sign after the season and be for this signing period? Or will he be for 2018 signing period? How auick can MLB add him to this signing period? I guess how late is their season over there?

 

With so many teams restricted to 300k wouldnt considering to wait to 2018 signing period comes? Of course depends who incurs penalties this yyear if thats possible? He'll know how majority of this shakes out end of July.

 

You also have to consider is a team going to sit out without knowing Otani is becoming available to sign later in year/early next? Id assume teams go through with their targets. Come August, November, whatever month Otani is freed to sign this period, what money are majority of teams going to have left? And if a team doesnt sign anyone, and then while having 5mil to spend on Otani, get shot down by Otani and get left with 0signings and 5mil on the table wasted?

[young guns]

http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2081.html

Looks like their season runs the same time ours does which means he would be available late October/early november.

[Eye Black]

With so many teams restricted to 300k wouldnt considering to wait to 2018 signing period comes? Of course depends who incurs penalties this yyear if thats possible? He'll know how majority of this shakes out end of July.

If I have read this all correctly, the 2017-18 and 2018-19 International signing periods should be the last time we see penalties restricting teams to $300,000 max signings (as the remaining penalty to teams that went over their bonus pools in 2015-16 or 2016-17). With the new CBA the International bonus pools will now have a hard cap, so teams won't be able to exceed the value of their allotted pool beginning in 2017-18.

 

I found the information at this LINK helpful, at least the notes that outlined the changes for 2017-18.