Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan

[Eye Black]

It seems more certain than ever that Shohei Otani is going to be playing major league baseball in 2018. He is quite possibly the closest we have seen to a sure a thing on the International market. He is a franchise changing player. The new collective bargaining rules are going to prevent him from being paid anywhere close to fair market value at this point in his career, so other factors are going to play into his decision on where to sign. So time to get creative BF.net, it is up to us to devise a strategy for the Brewers to sign Otani.

 

How are we going to convince Shohei Otani to sign with the Brewers?

 

 

A few Otani related links from earlier today...

 

60 Minutes Interview: Is Japan's Babe Ruth headed to the Majors?

 

MLB Trade Rumors: Latest on Otani

 

ESPN.com: Japanese star Shohei Otani to miss 6 weeks with thigh injury

[brewcrewdue80]

$5.25 Million

Cincinnati Reds*

Miami Marlins

Milwaukee Brewers

Minnesota Twins

Oakland Athletics*

Tampa Bay Rays

 

Teams with the Asterisk cant sign for more than 300k.

 

The rumors posted Otani would be allowed to leave his team after this season. So that should mean he would sign in the 2018-19 period. So this list above would have 5.75million plus up to 75% more if acquireing other team's slots. So there's that for incentive on luring Otani here. While it may not be about the money to him, there are 5teams that could give nearly 1million more than the 5.25mil teams who are on the opposite end of competitive balance. And 1.75million more than every other team then after.

Best news is he won't be a Cardinal. Reds too. As they're part of the 7teams who wont be able to sign higher than 300k next year.

 

Hard part is offering him the Plate Appearances that Tampa or Minnesota can offer with the DH.

 

Now, I dont know if Otani would be allowed to sign immediately after the season and available then to this upcoming signing period. Usually thats tied to age? That I dont know if he old enough to that exception.

but, if that became so, there are a lot more teams then restricted to 300k max. That scenario increase our odds, but we are in that 2nd level of max we can offer vs one of the maxxed teams for 18.

[ZBTMP]

I know when the Brewers signed Aoki, it was negotiated for his team control to be less than 6 years. Can someone explain to me what, if any, restrictions exist in this regard? I'm guessing if possible, some team will offer him a 1-year deal that will allow him to hit the open market after a season if possible... Even with a 20 millions posting fee, seems like that would even have surplus value at this point.

I'd suspect that the Brewers already have a couple of 7 figure commitments to the players mentioned in the international thread that would limit their bonus pool.

[pacopete4]

I doubt he signs with an NL team because of the DH in the AL. I'm sure this guy wants some at bats and the AL allows him to do that if he's good enough. Another reason why having separate rules for your leagues is a joke.

[brewcrewdue80]

Taken from Baseball America:

The rules also raise the signing age for players to be exempt from the bonus pools. The rules had been that international players were exempt from the bonus pools if they were at least 23 with five or more seasons of experience in a foreign professional league, like Serie Nacional in Cuba. Now players must be at least 25 with six seasons in a foreign professiona. league to be exempt. While those rules most commonly come in to play for Cuban players, the rules encompass all international players, including foreign professionals in Japan and Korea.

 

So He wouldnt fit the age where he's signing a FA deal outside the international pool. I dont understand why, if you signed him, he wouldnt just go to the 6years team control. You would figure he could start from Game 1 and be Arb eligible after 3seasons. Sure you could sit him to gain a 7th year, but if Im him thats a deal breaker. So the max he could sign for would be 10.1million approx. Arbitration would be completely different than anything that has been decided, nbecause his playing both pitcher batter.

Now the question is, how long would he have to wait before you signed an extension? So while hes limited what he can get come July signing period. Couldnt a team essentially give him a ML contract after he's Played a few games? "Buying out his team control"? You could via that idea, come to an agreement to a 7year deal. Sorta prearranged. So taking Milwaukee for 2018, Otani gets a 10mil July Deal. And by Mid July he's pitching for the team? Wait to the offseason and sign him 6years 65million? So in truth he's gotten a 7year/75million deal? You hash somthing like this out when recruiting him.

 

How does MLB stop something like that?

[reillymcshane]

So taking Milwaukee for 2018, Otani gets a 10mil July Deal. And by Mid July he's pitching for the team? Wait to the offseason and sign him 6years 65million? So in truth he's gotten a 7year/75million deal? You hash somthing like this out when recruiting him.

 

How does MLB stop something like that?

Because it's against the rules, and if MLB found out there was a pre-arranged agreement then everyone would be screwed.

 

And if this could be done by Milwaukee, what stops the Yankees or the Angels or whomever from just making it a $100M 'wink wink' contract?

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers have no chance honestly.

[nate82]

The Brewers have no chance honestly.

 

I would agree if he would wait another year. With the current rules the Brewers have a chance though it is a small chance.

[reillymcshane]

I'd love to find a way to sign Otani, but I don't really see a way for it to happen. But we'll try.

 

First, the negatives are pretty big:

 

Assuming that all the teams can offer him roughly the same amount of money (or even if we can offer a little more), then Milwaukee isn't attractive.

 

- Far away from Japan (relative to a place like LA or Seattle or SF, which probably have frequent, direct flights)

- Organization without financial resources compared to places like LA, NY, SF, etc. A place with lots of money to keep competitive is really enticing.

- Community with a small Japanese population (again, compared to some of the places, especially on the coasts).

- Market that offers limited endorsement opportunities. The way Otani can make a lot more money is through endorsements. Let's face it, Milwaukee isn't a great place to be for that. The place to be for that is LA or NY.

- Franchise is bad - and has been bad - for a long time. Sure we've had a few years of success here and there, but it's been lots of losing for the last 25 years or so. And the team just isn't good right now. Hard to be excited about that.

 

Only real way to convince someone like Otani to come to Milwaukee is if he's the kind of person who truly doesn't care that much about the above items. You could say:

 

- Great farm system, will be good for a while. Will continue to feed the system so that you won't be stuck with a bunch of aging, overpaid players (see Angels) without much of a chance of winning for years.

- Good facilities, strong fan base

- Less pressure in Milwaukee

- We'll let you play OF every day you're not pitching

- You get to bat when you pitch

- You'll be the biggest of the stars in our small pond

- Giannis loves Milwaukee!!! If he can thrive here, so can you.

- You'll still make a lot of money. Maybe not as much, but still millions.

- Sausage races.

 

Like I said, it's hard to convince a guy like Otani that Milwaukee is his best situation. But you never know.

[And That]

Otani's playing schedule in Japan is that he pitches on Sunday and plays offense Monday-Thursday (give or take). If he thinks that schedule is part of what keeps him fresh and playing at a top level, perhaps the Brewers could promise to commit to maintaining that schedule. It would wreak a bit of havoc with the rotation, but if that's what it takes, it's probably worth it.

 

And FWIW, Otani lives in Nippon's player dorm. No house, no car. To what extent he wants to maintain that lifestyle is up for debate, but it would be a lot easier to live a secluded, dorm-ish life in Milwaukee than it would be in the SF bay area, Seattle, or New York.

 

"No chance" is inaccurate - of course Milwaukee has a chance. Might be really, really small, but it's there nonetheless. Maybe he'll be the Brewers' Reggie White.

[MrTPlush]

Step 1: Get Aoki to endorse us.

 

Step 2: Bring in another Japanese player.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

All players entering MLB should have to go through the draft. The highest bidder for foreign born players sucks.

[brewcrewdue80]

So taking Milwaukee for 2018, Otani gets a 10mil July Deal. And by Mid July he's pitching for the team? Wait to the offseason and sign him 6years 65million? So in truth he's gotten a 7year/75million deal? You hash somthing like this out when recruiting him.

 

How does MLB stop something like that?

Because it's against the rules, and if MLB found out there was a pre-arranged agreement then everyone would be screwed.

 

And if this could be done by Milwaukee, what stops the Yankees or the Angels or whomever from just making it a $100M 'wink wink' contract?

 

He's a completely different signing than what generally happens during the International signing period. He'd be 23 which with the new rules he is now 2 years too young to be considered a FA not tied to the International Draft Pools. Prior to the new deal, he would have been allowed to sign.

 

There's gotta be some kind of compromise with making a deal with Otani. Yu Darvish at 25 signed for 6/60million...after a 51.7mil bid posting to negotiate a deal. That's nearly 92mil for 6years.

 

Otani isn't going to be a minor league addition. He'll be primed to start from day 1 at the Major League level.

 

MLB could look at adding Japan's "Babe Ruth" to ML play come 2018 or Otani can change his mind and decide he'll wait for age 25 when he can be signed away for like Darvish, 10mil and likely more per season.

 

MLB and Otani are literally screwed by the new rules. So what are the penalties? Tax types? Losing a draft pick or the international signing period for a season like what occured with Boston? What franchise would really care if they get a new version of Babe Ruth?

 

I agree in the sense then what stops the Yankees? from say dumping 100million, heck 250million to sign Otani? I don't know, but why?, once he's started ML games would the team not be able to negotiate a contract for his 6/7 years of team control? Or extended 1-3 more years beyond? Evan Longoria was signed after just 6 ML games to a deal with Tampa. Was that against the rules?

 

Taken from ESPN article on Longoria's deal:

Talks between the sides started in early March, and many of the contract details had been agreed upon on April 11, one day before Longoria came up to the Rays.

 

So they hashed out a deal pretty much before he even played 1 game for them. If Otani is going to be a starter from day 1, what is wrong in a team creating an agreed upon deal days after his 1st start?

 

It's a wild dream for the Brewers to consider themselves any possible chance to be one of the final teams Otani and his group will decide upon. But this is an open discussion like there is a chance.

[MrTPlush]

This new rule is allowing big markets to sign Otani for pennys instead of big bucks they typically would. If Otani goes that route.

[jerichoholicninja]

Move the Brewers to the NPL. Try to convince him to stay in Japan by making him the highest paid player in the league. That is their best chance.

[Eye Black]

I think reillymcshane was on the right track here. The Brewers need to either accentuate the intrinsic qualities of Milwaukee and the Brewers organization, or they need to be the figure out a way to creatively exploit a financial loop hole in the current collective bargaining agreement. Desperate times call for desperate measures, so here is my stab at ridiculous options...

 

- Guarantee the Nippon Ham company representation (a 6th full-time Famous Racing Sausage) in the prestigious Miller Park sausage race as a good will gesture.

 

- Create a new craft beer, the Otani Pale Ale, and sell it at the Miller Park craft brew bar for $14.00 with proceeds going directly to the Japanese star.

 

- Present Shohei Otani with an unlimited pass for Bernie Brewer slide rides.

 

---None of that is likely to get it done, we need to go BIGGER---

 

How about you make Shohei Otani a minority stakeholder in the Brewers organization? What you can't pay him in salary you could give him in equity in the Brewers organization. A 5% share of the Brewers organization? I realize it is probably very much against the compensation rules, but I have a feeling the bidding for Otani is going to include some questionable tactics (although probably not quite to this extent).

[JosephC]

If the guy was truly concerned about the dollar amount of his first deal he'd just wait two years and then cash in after he turned 25. It's more likely he'll look at prestige of the organization and the quality of players that will surround him over all other considerations. The Brewers might have one of the best farm systems, but a team like the Yankees could tell him that they will give Bryce Harper a half-billion dollars and put him in the same lineup and it's obvious to everyone on the planet that the Brewers won't be doing that.

 

This race just isn't between two teams (probably between about 6), but when all is said and done I'd be pretty surprised if he is wearing something other than a Yankee or Dodger uniform.

[young guns]

A pkayer like this just puts in perspective how ridiculous the international signing rules are. They just dont take into account a player of this caliber.

[reillymcshane]

A pkayer like this just puts in perspective how ridiculous the international signing rules are. They just dont take into account a player of this caliber.

Correct. An exceptional is very, very unlikely to pick a team like Milwaukee when salary is basically the same.

 

Of course, the league knows that - and probably wouldn't want Otani in Milwaukee or Tampa Bay or Kansas City. They want him in a big market to help sell the league.

[ZBTMP]

Apparently, we now have a full time Asian scout in former #1 overall pick Byran Bullington so at least we can now have a scouting presence at his games!

[Boomer5]

Without the DH we only by the most technical of terms do we have any chance. Which to say realistically we have none.

 

Too bad. This guy looks to be a game changer that we badly need.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well there are negatives and positives between AL and NL. AL the 33starts he gets, maybe 2-4 occur in NL parks and he can bat those same days. Then you can bat him at DH. NL every start except when made in an AL park he can bat that day. He'd also be a PH batter every game.

 

Now will his bat be DH worthy to play every game he doesn't start? On a daily he'd be max around 130 games of PAs. Which by a multiple of 4 would be 520 PAs.

 

With say 30NL starts and 3.3PAs a game you are looking at 100PAs. Add 130 PH PAs and now he's at 230PAs. If you manage him to not pitch at AL parks and bat him DH when @ AL games are involved, that for 2017 is 10games at 4PAs adds 40 or 270PAs.

 

Would that be enough? Does he need the 250PAs extra between the leagues? Wear and Tear. An AL team doesn't start him before every start of games. You are looking 120PAs less. I'd expect any team wouldn't leave him at DH as a batter the day before a Game Started. He gets injured during that game and you are left scrambling for a SP in under 12-20hours.

 

What's his desire? To Pitch and Hit in the same games? Or does he only want to focus on Pitching one game, and batting one game, never both in the same game? That would immediately put an answer what League would have the green light to try signing him.

[Eye Black]

The DH is optional in the American League, so he could hit on days he pitches in the AL if the team decided to forgo the DH. Similarly if he pitched for an NL team playing in an AL park they could decide to allow him to hit. I am assuming he will want to know the exact plans each potential suitor would have in terms of his projected use as a hitter in these scenarios. It will be interesting if any AL teams would commit to allowing him to hit on days he pitches. I assume most AL teams would still want to have use of their DH spot and encourage him to focus on pitching only on those days.

[clancyphile]

Have we forgotten Brooks Kieschnick? The Brewers made a two-way player work in 2003-2004. Otani wouldn't be much different in general terms.

 

For instance, Otani could be in the rotation as a starter and play first base the other days. The DH is always an option for AL parks. Pinch-hitting is a plan, too.

[MrTPlush]

Teams are going to let him do whatever he wants. They will get to add him for nothing. If he insists on batting everyday they will let him do it. There is literally no risk when it comes to him. If he flames out you dump him losing nothing. Now if he could sign for big bucks then it is a totally different story.

 

If we can go out and sign this dude for $5mil and have full control the Brewers would let him do whatever he wants. Pitch? Play first? Be 1st base coach? I will put down that $5mil easy and give him a shot.