2017 Green Bay Packers draft preview and predictions

[LouisEly]

(Note: I checked with a moderator who was active on Lambeauleap.net and he directed me to post this here.)

 

Those (few) of you who were active on Lambeauleap.net know that it’s that time of year – time for my annual Green Bay Packers draft preview and predictions post. Last year was a good year, having hit on Spriggs, Fackrell, and Lowry (none in the correct rounds, but I did call the Packers trading up for Spriggs in the 2nd round) and even hit on Peter Mortell as a UDFA.

 

Let’s get after it.

 

1st Round: T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin – the criticism of Watt was that while he had a great season and was new to OLB he’s a one year wonder. Sound familiar?

Clay Matthews.

JJ said his younger brother was the better athlete in the family, and T.J. proved it when he owned the combine. He was considered a mid-2nd round pick until shining at the combine; now he’s projected to be a late 1st. Loads of potential here, as Watt didn’t start playing OLB until August of 2015 (he missed spring practice that year with an injury), he fills a need, and could easily be BPA. Despite CMIII and Perry having big contracts, you need more than two OLB so they are fresh late in games, and a good pass rush can make average CBs look a lot better when QBs only have three seconds or less. (Replaces Julius Peppers)

If he’s still available: Gaeron Conley, CB, Ohio State – up until the combine he was my pick, but given his excellent performance at the combine, Sidney Jones’ injury, and Teez Tabor’s lackluster performance at the combine I think he will push up the board and be gone. Good speed, above average length, allowed just 37% completion rate of passes thrown his way. Press corner who can crowd and trail, which is what the Packers want their corners to do.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Adoree Jackson, CB, USC – if you’re looking for a playmaker with speed at CB, he’s your guy. One of the best athletes in college football, he adds value as a returner (scored four times on special teams) and can sneak in on a few offensive plays. Smallish, but that didn’t stop the Packers from drafting Randall (5’11”). Has great pattern recognition and closing speed to make the INTs (5 in 2016). Still learning CB, and if he was 2” taller he’d be a top-10 pick.

 

2nd Round: Dan Feeney, G, Indiana – while TT mostly thinks that guards are replaceable, he’s gone this high for a guard before when in need (Daryn Colledge). Losing Lang and Tretter this year, on top of Sitton last year, and with Taylor a FA after next year, the need for interior OL reinforcements is high. Tough guy with lots of experience and a very good pass blocker (only one sack given up in his first three seasons at guard) with short-area quickness, just what the Packers love at guard. Indiana has had great RB production the last four years, and he’s a big reason why. (Replaces T.J. Lang)

If he’s still available: D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texas – replace Eddie Lacy with… Eddie Lacy? Big back (6’, 233) who shed a few lbs for the combine and their pro day but has great athleticism – ran a sub-4.50 at their pro day, and also looked good in passing drills. Would present matchup problems the way Lacy did – when the Pack runs an 11 formation (3 WRs) it forces the defense to play nickel; when that happens, and the OL and FB/TE execute their blocks, you end up with DBs trying to tackle him. The issue with Lacy wasn’t production – when he was healthy he was very effective; he just wasn’t healthy.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado – this is a deep CB class and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pack go for one in the first two rounds, but it’s hard to guess which one. Witherspoon is a riser who has outstanding size (6’3”) and on top of that posted a 40” vertical and 4.45 speed at the combine. Questionable ball skills but still learning the game, he only played one year of HS football (and was 5’8” – grew to 6’3” by the end if his freshman year of college). Needs to spend some time in the weight room, but only 26% completion rate against him in 2016.

 

3rd Round: Howard Wilson, CB, Houston – there will be talented corners still available in the 3rd round, and Wilson will likely be one of them. Ballhawk who averaged one interception every 15 targets despite only one year as a starter. Average straight-line speed but great agility as he posted some of the top 3-cone and 20-yard shuttle times at the combine with a good burst towards the ball. Willing tackler but needs some time in the weight room. Might not have been fully recovered from his 2015 ACL surgery. (Replaces Sam Shields)

If he’s still available: Chris Wormley, DE, Michigan –very good athlete who may be able to stand up a la Peppers and play the elephant. Prototypical 5-technique, good technician, very agile with good pursuit speed (ran 4.82 at their pro day), and can bump inside as a pass rusher. Great leader with high character, excellent locker room presence.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Anthony Walker, ILB, Northwestern – when 105 tackles, 10 TFL, 5 passes defensed, and 1 INT is a down year, you know you’re good. Excellent all-around ILB who posted one of the best 40-times at the combine. Outstanding character and leader. The Pack needs some depth at ILB, particularly when it comes to a pass coverage ILB.

 

4th Round: Aaron Jones, RB, UTEP – finished fourth in FBS with 1700 rushing yards, but what stands out to me is his 7.7 yards/carry and that during all four of his seasons (one cut short to foot injury) he broke a run for >70 yards, and during 3 of the 4 seasons broke a run for >80 yards. Decent straight line speed but excellent change of direction runner, he was one of the top performers at the combine in the 3-cone, 20-yard shuttle, and 60-yard shuttle (as well as 37” vertical). Adequate receiver who caught 28 passes last season. (Replaces Eddie Lacy)

If he’s still available: Isaac Asiata, G, Utah – strong, nasty, good lateral movement for a big guy, can play either guard spot or center. TT likes to grab interior linemen in the 4th & 5th rounds.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Eddie Vanderdoes, DT, UCLA – former 5-star recruit started as a true freshman and was a freshman All-American. Just dominated his first game as a junior (8 tackles, 2 TFL vs. Virginia) but tore his ACL. May not have fully recovered last year, seemed overweight and wasn’t productive, but showed at the combine his athleticism might be back. Great strength, huge hands, can play nose and hold the point, but also a better pass rusher than his numbers indicate.

 

5th Round: Sean Harlow, G, Oregon State – played LT the last two years but lack of length will push him inside. Tough – came back from broken leg his junior year. Practiced at every position on the line including extensively at center. With the losses of Lang and Tretter, and with Taylor a FA next year, I would not be surprised if the Pack double dips in the interior OL, and TT likes to find them in the 4th and 5th rounds. (Replaces J.C. Tretter)

If he’s still available: Davis Webb, QB, Cal – the Packers will need to figure out what to do with Hundley as he will be a FA soon. Webb first unseated Baker Mayfield at Texas Tech (causing Mayfield to transfer) but was then displaced by Patrick Mahomes and transferred to Cal as a graduate where he threw for 4300 yards, 37 TDs, and 12 INTs. Good athlete for his size, good developmental prospect.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Vince Biegel, OLB, Wisconsin – TT personally attended UW’s pro day, and both of UW’s OLBs are good fits for what the Packers do. Had very good workout numbers at the combine and pro day, and looked decent in pass coverage drills.

 

5th Round (comp pick): Pita Taumoepenu, OLB, Utah – somewhat miscast as a pass-rush DE, he has excellent quickness and athleticism (one of the top 40 and 3-cone drill times for LBs). I watched some of his tape and he really fires off the ball. Will need to learn OLB, and for some reason didn’t start much, but was very productive (9 TFL and 7 sacks in only 4 starts in 11 games). (Replaces Datone Jones)

If he’s still available: Vincent Taylor, DT, Oklahoma State – excellent penetrator who is lightning quick off the ball, and used that skill to put up 13 TFL and 7 sacks last year… and led the nation with four blocked kicks. Concerns about being top-heavy and lateral quickness/balance, but he can get in the backfield.

Don’t be surprised if it’s: Nate Hairston, CB, Temple – converted WR who moved to CB his junior year, he’s still learning the position but has good size (6’, 196 lbs), decent speed, and upside.

 

6th Round: An inside linebacker

They need depth at the position as Morgan Burnett was playing ILB in some packages by the end of the season. If they need a thumper in run support, Marcus Oliver, ILB, Indiana, forced nine fumbles over the last two seasons and had 15.5 TFL last year. If they need a coverage guy, Jayon Brown, ILB, UCLA is a smaller, speedier ILB who broke up 6 passes and intercepted three last year in addition to making 120 tackles. The best of both worlds might be Keith Brown, ILB, Western Kentucky. One year starter but it was a good one – 131 tackles, 13 TFL, 6 sacks, 9 passes defensed, 2 interceptions. (Competes with Jordan Tripp)

 

7th round: Josh Tupuo, DT, Colorado – the Packers don’t have much patience for guys who are suspended, and Guion’s suspension might put him on the outside looking in. Tupuo is a big body who plugs the middle with decent pursuit, even if he doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher. (Competes with Letroy Guion, Brian Price)

If he’s still available: Elijah McGuire, RB, Louisiana-Lafayette – tough runner between the tackles with low pad level and good forward lean, can also make guys miss and maneuver through the weeds; 100 career receptions for 1145 yards

Don’t be surprised if it’s: DeAngelo Yancey, WR, Purdue – TT can’t keep his hands off WRs, and Yancey is a vertical threat who averaged 19.4 ypc as a senior and 16.6 ypc for his career; 1650 receiving yards the last two years combined despite the lousy QB play at Purdue says he’s good. Ran upper 4.4s at their pro day. If he isn’t drafted, look for him to be one of GB’s priority FAs.

 

 

UDFAs

James Connor, RB, Pitt – famous for coming back from Hodgkin’s disease, he’s another bigger back with incredible toughness – physical and mental. Might be a poor man’s D’onta Foreman without having to invest a high draft pick.

Kai Nacua, S, BYU – playmaker who totaled 12 INTs over the last two seasons, ran a 4.50 and posted a 39” vertical at their pro day

Gunner Kiel, QB, Cincinnati – has NFL arm strength but injuries and poor decision-making limited his performance; needs to be in a no-pressure situation where he can heal, watch, and learn

Jhajuan Seales, WR/DB, Oklahoma State – got in a little trouble with a public intoxication arrest at OSU (lucky it wasn’t a DUI) and not terribly productive but incredibly athletic, measured 6’1, 206, and ran a 4.37 with 20 reps on the bench and a 41.5” vertical at their pro day – I’d like to see the Packers do what they did with Herb Waters and Sam Shields and try to convert those measurables into a CB.

Evan Goodman, G, Arizona State – played LT for ASU but lack of length will push him inside. Great quickness and agility, above average pass blocker, needs to get nastier if moved inside.

Winston Kraig, DE, Richmond – posted 11 TFL and 7.5 sacks his senior year

Corey Vereen, OLB, Tennessee – notched 21 TFL and 10.5 sacks over last two seasons as a DE

Deon-Tay McManus, WR/RB, Marshall – played WR but at 6’, 226, is eerily similar to Montgomery and might take the same path in the pros and move to RB, 100 receptions in three seasons

Riley Sorensen, C, Washington State – need to find a backup center, Sorensen has size to play guard if needed

Anthony Nash, WR, Duke – senior season cut short by injury and never terribly productive (less than 1000 career receiving yards), but great size (6’4”, 211) and ran a 4.38 at their pro day

Taylor Reynolds, CB, James Madison – good size and combined for 30 passes defensed over last two seasons

Michael Clark, WR, Marshall – the Packers had scouts at Marshall’s pro day, and Clark checked in at 6’5.5”, 217, and ran a 4.50; played only one season at Marshall after transferring from St. Francis

Folarin Orimolade, ILB, Dartmouth – 27 of his 119 total tackles his junior and senior season and 35 of his career 143 tackles were for losses, seven passes defensed over last two seasons as well

Paul Boyette, DT, Texas – better junior year, but combined for 13.5 TFL over junior and senior seasons

Torren McGaster, CB, Vanderbilt – three-year starter with decent size, not much for ball skills but 23 passes defensed over his last two seasons against tough SEC competition

Mitchell Kirsch, OT, James Madison – small school project

Wyatt Houston, TE, Utah State – TE is pretty well set, camp depth and potential special teamer

Rigoberto Sanchez, P/K, Hawaii – averaged 45 yards/punt over two seasons and made 21 of 24 field goals

[patrickgpe]

i haven't gotten too much into the draft yet, but i like the idea of drafting Forrest Lamp in the 1st round, although i would be happy with Watt too.

[pacopete4]

I dread when the Packers get a Badger on their roster because the fan base just can't handle it. The outcry of release Jared Abbrederis was the last straw for me and that's coming from a big Badgers fan.

[FVBrewerFan]

Could/should they move up in the 1st to get a stud CB? TT has shown he's willing to move up, so it's not unheard of. Just seems like they still have a major hole, and the only way they can fill it is by getting a true stud CB in the draft. Not a guy who has good hips and potential. Not a safety they want to convert to CB. No, a guy who can step in right away and instantly be better than Randall, Rollins Gunter, and House.

[superfly]

I dread when the Packers get a Badger on their roster because the fan base just can't handle it. The outcry of release Jared Abbrederis was the last straw for me and that's coming from a big Badgers fan.

 

I think that was more frustration because (I think) there was something there...if only he could have not been so injury prone. TT knew that going in when he drafted him though...or at least I hope he did.

[brwrsfan]

They certainly COULD move up, but I'd be surprised this year. This is a very deep CB draft, we can likely sit back and still get a very good one at our spot. Also, IMO, we have many holes yet to fill all over the roster and giving up multiple picks or a third rounder (or whatever it costs) to move up seems like a bad move this year

[FVBrewerFan]

There's never a good time to give up picks. And yea, the word is CB is deep. But that doesn't mean a stud will be there at the end of the 1st. Or, they could even go bolder and trade Hundley and a 3rd next year for a mid first rounder this year. Then they would have two first round picks this season. Get a stud CB, and then a LB, pass rusher, O lineman, whatever with the other 1st round pick.

[pacopete4]

I dread when the Packers get a Badger on their roster because the fan base just can't handle it. The outcry of release Jared Abbrederis was the last straw for me and that's coming from a big Badgers fan.

 

I think that was more frustration because (I think) there was something there...if only he could have not been so injury prone. TT knew that going in when he drafted him though...or at least I hope he did.

 

 

Sure that makes total sense for the fan base going crazy after releasing him and not signing him again. It just gets old with people blinded by their fandom of a team. Plenty of other college teams out there to find players for me. Rather not deal with people telling me that guys like Abby are not a dime a dozen in the NFL. I mean, Gerome Allison has done more in a shorter time and the fan base wouldn't even care if he was cut tomorrow.

[LouisEly]

Could/should they move up in the 1st to get a stud CB? TT has shown he's willing to move up, so it's not unheard of. Just seems like they still have a major hole, and the only way they can fill it is by getting a true stud CB in the draft. Not a guy who has good hips and potential. Not a safety they want to convert to CB. No, a guy who can step in right away and instantly be better than Randall, Rollins Gunter, and House.

Looking at the All-Pro CBs from this past year, the highest that any of them were drafted was #20 overall (Talib). Hayward and Jenkins were 2nd round picks, and Butler, Grimes, and Bouye were UDFAs. Richard Sherman was a 5th round pick, etc., etc. Odds are better the higher you draft, but I don't know that the cost of moving up in the first is worth the expected reward, especially in a deep draft.

 

One thing to support a trade-up though is with Jones' and Moreau's injures the upper level depth has thinned which may push some guys up. If CB was the only need, maybe. But given the number of free agents who left and holes that need to be filled (CB, G, OLB, RB, and ILB is pretty mediocre), coupled with the depth of CB, I don't think this is the year to do it. If Witherspoon is still available mid-3rd, or Wilson or Griffin is still available mid-4th, you pull the trigger to move up if it only costs you a 5th.

 

The draft is really deep at CB. Where guys are likely to go:

1st: Lattimore, Humphrey, Conley, White, maybe Jackson

2nd: K. King, Tankersley, Awuzie, Q. Wilson, maybe Witherspoon, Moreau

3rd: Lewis, D. King, Sutton, H. Wilson, Douglas, Griffin, Myrick, likely Jones, maybe Tabor

 

Roughly 100 picks in the first three rounds, and potentially 20 of them CBs. That's a pretty deep draft.

[nate82]

Watt seems like the consensus pick for you Packer fans and he does fit a 3-4 defense. Not sure I would take a pass rush first OLB with my first pick though he does fix your problem of a weak pass rush. I would actually trade for another 2nd or 3rd pick with that 1st round pick. I think there is more value in the 2-3 rounds and having extra picks there would bring in more value than that late 1st round pick.

[colbyjack]

Awesome stuff as always. I don't follow the NFL Draft nearly as much as I used to but this thread is the one thing I always make a point to read.

 

I will say for as glaring as the needs are for defense I'm still a big fan of Christian McCaffrey and the different things he could do for the Packers offense.

[fondybrewfan]

I was on NFLtraderumors.com yesterday and they had their first mock up. It was the WR out of Washington that ran like a 4.2. That would be a colossally stupid pick for the Pack in the 1st round. The WR depth chart is already at least 4 deep with Nelson, Adams, Cobb, and Allison. Not to mention the fact that with 2 good TE's this year the WR's might not play as much. Any new WR probably wouldn't see the field much.

 

Gotta be a CB or a LB of some sort. Maybe would consider a RB if a good one falls.

[pacopete4]

If TT picks a WR with our first pick, there might be an angry mob with pitch forks outside of Lambeau field that same day. I might be one of them. Now, if they add a WR in like the 5th round or later, I'm not sure many will care as he seems to have a pretty good judgement of WR's.

[MrTPlush]

I don't see a huge problem drafting a WR in the first if it a #1 type guy. That means next offseason they can save a boatload of money getting rid of Nelson or Cobb(or not resigning Adams if he has a big year). Then could take that money to get a good veteran CB.

 

Of course that would take the perfect situation. Any CB we draft is doubtful to help this year anyway and as has been said it is a deep CB year. Typically you are more likely to go elsewhere with your #1 pick.

 

I probably wouldn't do it, but I don't think it is a huge obvious mistake.

[patrickgpe]

i was on walterfootball today and they have king as the pick, who i know little about but seems to be a nice sized corner back.

 

peppers was on the board, which if he is there i would be royally perturbed if he isn't the pick.

[brewcrewdue80]

i was on walterfootball today and they have king as the pick, who i know little about but seems to be a nice sized corner back.

 

peppers was on the board, which if he is there i would be royally perturbed if he isn't the pick.

 

Right now checking it is Peppers

 

The Packers managed to retain one of their free agent edge rushers. While outside linebacker remains a possibility at No. 29, I think Green Bay will focus on finding a talented defensive back instead, which is necessary considering the dire issues the team had at the position last year.

 

Things seem worse for Green Bay's secondary now that Micah Hyde has joined the Bills. Jabrill Peppers seems like the perfect replacement for Hyde, as he can do everything Hyde did, both on defense and special teams.

 

Pick change; previously Gareon Conley, CB

Read more at http://walterfootball.com/draft2017_1.php#JZ2cwZYtZotFzKMo.99

 

 

I'm all for that pick. Adoree Jackson goes to Seattle a little ahead. Watt goes 31 and 32 is LSU CB Tre'Davious White.

 

Conley drops to 33.

 

 

Based on that I would expect we get one of the DBs on the board with the potential then to move up and snag another if not chosen earlier. But most likely TT goes the opposite way, trades out of the 1st round lets that team get Peppers so we can gain a higher 2nd rd pick and a 4th round pick. Because 1,2,3,4 and 2 5s isn't a big enough bunch like TT Likes.

[superfly]

I disagree with pitchforks on a WR pick. Jordy is getting older and Cobb has been pretty spotty since getting paid. As we have seen on numerous occasions, if Jordy goes down we are fairly F'd. Ted actually does well on WR picks so by all means have at it IMO. There are bigger needs, but can't go wrong with more weapons on offense.

 

Honestly i'd grab Mixon after a D and a WR and see how it works out...high risk very high reward, but if he's going to behave it's going to be in NE or GB. Could really care less what is in the past, anyone thinking NFL players are angels are fooling themselves.

 

Unlike picking pac-10 DL/LB in the first round...........

[tmwiese55]

Just have to get some D help. Ted's been great on WRs later in the draft, sure do that if you want but barring something weird happening with someone dropping at WR. Just have to get CB help or pass rush help.

 

Dumb thing about the Mixon media obsession is that it's primarily a bigger storyline because they have a video they can replay over and over for clicks and ratings. Look up what the Chiefs Tyreek Hill did, he still got drafted and made a team with no one talking about him. Then he was talked about glowingly as he did well last year. His wasn't on video though. My guess is if Mixon stays healthy and gets on a team with a QB, that team is going to get a steal. Probably most talented NFL back in the draft and you can get him late. Amazing receiver too so a great fit for the NFL, why I'd prefer him football-wise over Fournette. Less miles on his body too due to the suspension, sharing carries, and being in a spread system.

[patrickgpe]

i'm asking this because i am curious of what Packer fans say and not that i am openly advocating it, would you trade a 2nd rd pick for Richard Sherman. it would settle the CB issue and the packers would be going all in as key players are on the wrong side of 30. that being said i know TT would never part with a pick for a 29 year old CB with a 13 million cap number, also we have no idea what the Seahawks would be looking for.

[fondybrewfan]

I would trade the 2nd round pick for sure assuming we have the cap room. Immediately solves the biggest concern on the team and you can still use 1st round pick on a linebacker, guard, edger rusher, etc.

[tmwiese55]

i'm asking this because i am curious of what Packer fans say and not that i am openly advocating it, would you trade a 2nd rd pick for Richard Sherman. it would settle the CB issue and the packers would be going all in as key players are on the wrong side of 30. that being said i know TT would never part with a pick for a 29 year old CB with a 13 million cap number, also we have no idea what the Seahawks would be looking for.

 

Are there any signs that he drastically fell off last season or anything? Best of my knowledge he was still very good. If so I'd do it, he's signed for 2 more years and fixes the biggest glaring weakness. Like I pointed out in an earlier post, they've been 10 mil under the last few years, I think we can find 3 more. Also, Nick Perry got 10 mil per year didn't he? As long as Sherman was still good last year I'd definitely rather him at 13 than Perry at 10. I know it's not an either or, I'm just saying value-wise.

[nate82]

Maybe the Packers will draft a new girlfriend for Rodgers in the first round?

[pacopete4]

For a second you'd have to pull the trigger.

[Jenkins5]

Jabrill Peppers is perfect for the way they used Hyde & Woodson. He will never be an Outside CB in the NFL but he is a guy who can play slot,SS, move in box, return and etc. He is a best friend for Defensive Coordinator due to how versatile he is. TT like DS loves guys loaded with versatility. Lucky for Packers, this draft is so loaded with good RBs & CBs in top 3 rounds.... Packers can really go anyway they want with BPA.

 

No need to trade up for CB, you will get a really nice one where we are or in 2nd. At RB you can get a stud in 1st 2 rounds. Some good guards sitting there round 2-4. WR isn't top heavy but lot of 2-5 depth there. Not impressed with MLB OLB, DL class.

 

As usual, I trust Ted, Wolf, and the gang. With how little seperation there is after the top 5-10 prospects & how deep it is, too many ways this draft can break. I'm not expert enough to really seperate most prospects and mock.

[FVBrewerFan]

I know nothing about Peppers, but if he's a Hyde type, Last thing we need. Gunter can do that, Brice, Rollins. Slot defender as 1st round pick? No more hybrid cb/safeties. No more converted we or basketball players. If they go cb, get a cb.