2017 bullpen

[adambr2]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong on this, but I believe it to be true:

 

Wily Peralta could be pretty easily removed from the 40 man and sent to the minors. Theoretically, he could be DFA'ed and placed on waivers. It's pretty obvious no one is going to claim him for 4+ million, and pretty clear Peralta isn't going to choose to forfeit that money by refusing the outright assignment.

 

That's an expensive minor league player, but it doesn't really make a difference because we owe him that money regardless. It probably doesn't really matter, but if you want to continue the experiment down in the minors where he won't be hurting the MLB club rather than just releasing him, it's an option.

[ZBTMP]

Wang also pitches in the harshest minor league environment there is.

 

Regardless, it doesn't matter whether he can come close to that number. What matters is whether or not he can be better than Drake.

 

And I still haven't seen any metrics with strong predictive value that show this is the case. So he has maintained a sub 2 era driven by a .250 BABIP, a HR/FB rate 35% below MLB average, and a ridiculous 90% strand rate? None of those things are likely to continue upon a MLB call-up.

[JohnBriggs12]

Sad for Wily, but it's time. All the good work he did late last year didn't carry over. It's all about command in the big leagues whether you throw 97 or 87. As hard as he throws, he'll get other chances when he has stretches of good command, but it's not going to be here.

[JohnBriggs12]

Wang also pitches in the harshest minor league environment there is.

 

Regardless, it doesn't matter whether he can come close to that number. What matters is whether or not he can be better than Drake.

 

And I still haven't seen any metrics with strong predictive value that show this is the case. So he has maintained a sub 2 era driven by a .250 BABIP, a HR/FB rate 35% below MLB average, and a ridiculous 90% strand rate? None of those things are likely to continue upon a MLB call-up.

 

A .250 BABIP shows he's able to induce weak contact. He has a 0.79 WHIP vs. LHB who are hitting .159 off him. As has been pointed out, the bar isn't that high for him in Milwaukee. He needs to be better than Drake.

[ZBTMP]

A .250 BABIP shows he's able to induce weak contact. He has a 0.79 WHIP vs. LHB who are hitting .159 off him. As has been pointed out, the bar isn't that high for him in Milwaukee. He needs to be better than Drake.

 

It shows for 32 innings, balls have been hit to defenders about 5% more than you’d expect resulting from random variability and a pretty strong defense behind him. Wang’s career BABIP in the minors is over .300. Please tell me what about Wang’s arsenal would led you to believe he has the skill set to generate consistent weak contact against MLB hitters.

[JohnBriggs12]

A .250 BABIP shows he's able to induce weak contact. He has a 0.79 WHIP vs. LHB who are hitting .159 off him. As has been pointed out, the bar isn't that high for him in Milwaukee. He needs to be better than Drake.

 

It shows for 32 innings, balls have been hit to defenders about 5% more than you’d expect resulting from random variability and a pretty strong defense behind him. Wang’s career BABIP in the minors is over .300. Please tell me what about Wang’s arsenal would led you to believe he has the skill set to generate consistent weak contact against MLB hitters.

 

Wang's arsenal was thought to be good enough for the previous regime to keep him as a Rule 5 draftee before he had any minor league development time whatsoever. Since then, he's had around 320 innings in the minors developing and getting stronger and is now a more mentally and physically mature 25 year old who's put up solid if not spectacular results at each level since 2015. He's now producing in a tough environment. On the road this year, he's allowed 1 ER in 15 IP and a .170 BAA. He's earned a look given the failures of the back end of the pen and the dearth of lefties in the pen. He might fail. He might not. That's all I'm saying.

 

BTW, he made 5 starts last year for Colorado Springs covering 26 innings. He was ok with a WHIP of 1.30. So he now has 58 AAA innings.

[ZBTMP]

 

Wang's arsenal was thought to be good enough for the previous regime to keep him as a Rule 5 draftee before he had any minor league development time whatsoever. Since then, he's had around 320 innings in the minors developing and getting stronger and is now a more mentally and physically mature 25 year old who's put up solid if not spectacular results at each level since 2015. He's now producing in a tough environment. On the road this year, he's allowed 1 ER in 15 IP and a .170 BAA. He's earned a look given the failures of the back end of the pen and the dearth of lefties in the pen. He might fail. He might not. That's all I'm saying.

 

BTW, he made 5 starts last year for Colorado Springs covering 26 innings. He was ok with a WHIP of 1.30. So he now has 58 AAA innings.

 

By that logic, more recently, his stuff was also poor enough that 29 other MLB teams have twice passed on taking a flyer on him in the rule 5 draft and the Brewers neglected to invite him to MLB spring training. I’ll grant you he is probably better than Peralta, possibly better than Torres, but every predictive indicator we have that I’ve seen says Drake will be better.

[And That]

Wang's arsenal was thought to be good enough for the previous regime to keep him as a Rule 5 draftee before he had any minor league development time whatsoever.

Wang's stuff has backed up since he was on the Brewers' MLB roster. His fastball now scrapes 90 and his changeup is only other regularly viable pitch.

[And That]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong on this, but I believe it to be true:

 

Wily Peralta could be pretty easily removed from the 40 man and sent to the minors. Theoretically, he could be DFA'ed and placed on waivers. It's pretty obvious no one is going to claim him for 4+ million, and pretty clear Peralta isn't going to choose to forfeit that money by refusing the outright assignment.

 

That's an expensive minor league player, but it doesn't really make a difference because we owe him that money regardless. It probably doesn't really matter, but if you want to continue the experiment down in the minors where he won't be hurting the MLB club rather than just releasing him, it's an option.

 

That's correct. The question is, do the Brewers think there's anything to unlock by having Peralta pitch in AAA? While it seems kind of silly to pay his contract to play for a different organization, they are paying it either way and there's an opportunity cost of having Peralta take up a AAA roster spot that could go to someone who might have a better shot at being a long term piece of the Brewers' staff.

 

Whatever they end up doing, I think we'll find out shortly.

[JosephC]

It's probably best for everybody if Peralta gets a change of scenery and a fresh start with a different organization. I still think he can be a solid MLB pitcher but if it was going to happen with the Brewers then it would have happened already.

 

Texas was scouting him late in spring training and with a 34-35 record and some mediocre pitchers on their roster...maybe they'd have a spot for Wily.

 

Rangers get:

RHP-Wily Peralta (Brewers pick up all remaining salary minus the minimum salary portion)

 

Brewers get:

3B-Ti'Quan Forbes

2014 second round pick chosen because of his tools and projection but hasn't hit yet, .239/.284/.373/.657 so far this year (career minor league .309 OBP/.642 OPS in 1073 AB). 20 years old currently in low A ball. Hasn't appeared on Texas top 30 prospects list since 2015. Has hit 8 home runs this year which is about the only bright spot left. Longest of long shots. If the Rangers still view him as a "fringe prospect" then he'd probably be classified too high to give up for Peralta, but it's just as likely the Rangers may see him as just another run-of-the-mill minor leaguer and then it would be a fair deal, assuming they still have some level of interest in Peralta.

 

Or maybe for the Jeffress fans...the deal could be "top 10 organizational prospect" plus Peralta for Jeffress. Jeffress has pitched better recently so the prospect the Brewers would be surrendering would probably have to be pretty good. Marcos Diplan or Ryan Cordell back to Texas? Probably the type of prospect it would take to get Jeffress back in Milwaukee.

[NievesNoNO]

Peralta's time looks like it's coming to an end to me as well. I really had high hopes for him moving to the pen, but other than his first game out of the pen he's been the same guy. If you can't trust a guy to get you a couple innings, in what was a pretty low leverage situation down by three, there's really no use for him. It's just painful to give up on that arm.

 

Some of the Brewer's pen "problems", I think are being overblown on here. The bigger issue to me is the inability of the starters to get consistently deeper into games. Yes, they could use one more guy to pitch with Knebel and Barnes in the higher leverage spots with the lead. Maybe Hader is that guy. It's tough to say as he hasn't gotten much work. The results have been ok in his limited work but he hasn't shown to be the dominant guy many have hoped for... yet.

 

Torres could also be replaced. I think Drake and Hughes offer enough to be in the mix.

 

We'll see what happens, but I would prefer we stick with in-house options instead of trading away prospects to fill 30-40 innings out of the pen. Now if we're talking about maybe acquiring a controllable starter then I'm at least listening, although I'd again prefer to see if some of the young guys are ready to contribute.

 

Stearns has proven to not be one to sit idle, so I trust there's some more turnover coming.

[Pugger]

It's probably best for everybody if Peralta gets a change of scenery and a fresh start with a different organization. I still think he can be a solid MLB pitcher but if it was going to happen with the Brewers then it would have happened already.

 

Texas was scouting him late in spring training and with a 34-35 record and some mediocre pitchers on their roster...maybe they'd have a spot for Wily.

 

Rangers get:

RHP-Wily Peralta (Brewers pick up all remaining salary minus the minimum salary portion)

 

Brewers get:

3B-Ti'Quan Forbes

2014 second round pick chosen because of his tools and projection but hasn't hit yet, .239/.284/.373/.657 so far this year (career minor league .309 OBP/.642 OPS in 1073 AB). 20 years old currently in low A ball. Hasn't appeared on Texas top 30 prospects list since 2015. Has hit 8 home runs this year which is about the only bright spot left. Longest of long shots. If the Rangers still view him as a "fringe prospect" then he'd probably be classified too high to give up for Peralta, but it's just as likely the Rangers may see him as just another run-of-the-mill minor leaguer and then it would be a fair deal, assuming they still have some level of interest in Peralta.

 

Or maybe for the Jeffress fans...the deal could be "top 10 organizational prospect" plus Peralta for Jeffress. Jeffress has pitched better recently so the prospect the Brewers would be surrendering would probably have to be pretty good. Marcos Diplan or Ryan Cordell back to Texas? Probably the type of prospect it would take to get Jeffress back in Milwaukee.

 

Why would the Rangers make this trade when they know if they are patient Stearns will most likely DFA him sooner rather than later? I doubt there are many teams waiting breathlessly for Peralta to be released.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

The Padres may try to catch lightening in a bottle. Why continue to struggle when you have other options?

[jerichoholicninja]

It's probably best for everybody if Peralta gets a change of scenery and a fresh start with a different organization. I still think he can be a solid MLB pitcher but if it was going to happen with the Brewers then it would have happened already.

 

Texas was scouting him late in spring training and with a 34-35 record and some mediocre pitchers on their roster...maybe they'd have a spot for Wily.

 

Rangers get:

RHP-Wily Peralta (Brewers pick up all remaining salary minus the minimum salary portion)

 

Brewers get:

3B-Ti'Quan Forbes

2014 second round pick chosen because of his tools and projection but hasn't hit yet, .239/.284/.373/.657 so far this year (career minor league .309 OBP/.642 OPS in 1073 AB). 20 years old currently in low A ball. Hasn't appeared on Texas top 30 prospects list since 2015. Has hit 8 home runs this year which is about the only bright spot left. Longest of long shots. If the Rangers still view him as a "fringe prospect" then he'd probably be classified too high to give up for Peralta, but it's just as likely the Rangers may see him as just another run-of-the-mill minor leaguer and then it would be a fair deal, assuming they still have some level of interest in Peralta.

 

Or maybe for the Jeffress fans...the deal could be "top 10 organizational prospect" plus Peralta for Jeffress. Jeffress has pitched better recently so the prospect the Brewers would be surrendering would probably have to be pretty good. Marcos Diplan or Ryan Cordell back to Texas? Probably the type of prospect it would take to get Jeffress back in Milwaukee.

 

Why would the Rangers make this trade when they know if they are patient Stearns will most likely DFA him sooner rather than later? I doubt there are many teams waiting breathlessly for Peralta to be released.

 

Why would anyone give up anything for Peralta when he's done nothing in his 4+ year career? It's not like you can hope he returns to form. He doesn't have a form to return to.

[Humans Need Water]

It's probably best for everybody if Peralta gets a change of scenery and a fresh start with a different organization. I still think he can be a solid MLB pitcher but if it was going to happen with the Brewers then it would have happened already.

 

Texas was scouting him late in spring training and with a 34-35 record and some mediocre pitchers on their roster...maybe they'd have a spot for Wily.

 

Rangers get:

RHP-Wily Peralta (Brewers pick up all remaining salary minus the minimum salary portion)

 

Brewers get:

3B-Ti'Quan Forbes

2014 second round pick chosen because of his tools and projection but hasn't hit yet, .239/.284/.373/.657 so far this year (career minor league .309 OBP/.642 OPS in 1073 AB). 20 years old currently in low A ball. Hasn't appeared on Texas top 30 prospects list since 2015. Has hit 8 home runs this year which is about the only bright spot left. Longest of long shots. If the Rangers still view him as a "fringe prospect" then he'd probably be classified too high to give up for Peralta, but it's just as likely the Rangers may see him as just another run-of-the-mill minor leaguer and then it would be a fair deal, assuming they still have some level of interest in Peralta.

 

Or maybe for the Jeffress fans...the deal could be "top 10 organizational prospect" plus Peralta for Jeffress. Jeffress has pitched better recently so the prospect the Brewers would be surrendering would probably have to be pretty good. Marcos Diplan or Ryan Cordell back to Texas? Probably the type of prospect it would take to get Jeffress back in Milwaukee.

 

Why would the Rangers make this trade when they know if they are patient Stearns will most likely DFA him sooner rather than later? I doubt there are many teams waiting breathlessly for Peralta to be released.

 

Why would anyone give up anything for Peralta when he's done nothing in his 4+ year career? It's not like you can hope he returns to form. He doesn't have a form to return to.

Because if someone believes they can get the most out of his talent he could be a decent pen piece and with his value being very low it wouldn't take much to acquire him. There's plenty of examples where a change of scenery combined with a tweak here or there brings someone's talent out. 95-96 fastball with above average slider plays just fine at this level. His stuff is there the rest of the package isn't but that doesn't mean it can't be

[pacopete4]

Out of shape pro athletes annoy me. Peralta is definitely on that list. You're paid millions to play a game. Pay a chef and hop on a treadmill and get in shape. Might do wonders for Wily.

[danzig6767]

Because if someone believes they can get the most out of his talent he could be a decent pen piece and with his value being very low it wouldn't take much to acquire him. There's plenty of examples where a change of scenery combined with a tweak here or there brings someone's talent out. 95-96 fastball with above average slider plays just fine at this level. His stuff is there the rest of the package isn't but that doesn't mean it can't be

His command of that slider is as wildly inconsistent as his command of his fastball is.

 

That's why he walks to many hitters and falls behind in the count to many hitters, leading to lots of hard hit bals.

 

I get why the Brewers have tried to extend a long leash with Peralta. He has a fabulous arm and teams hate giving up on someone who can consistently throw 95-98, even after 6-7 innings.

 

For as great as his arm is though, it's negated by an inability to command any of his pitches. Feliz is another prime example of this.

 

MLB hitters are used to pitchers who throw hard. So a guy who throws hard, but with garbage command will get hit hard. Maybe another team can get better command out of Willy, but odds are against it. Baseball history is littered with guys like him who never could put things together, regardless of being blessed with a million dollar arm.

[brwrsfan]

I just don't get why they've given Peralta, Drake and to some extent Torres such long leashes. Some guys (Marinez, Milone) were essentially sent packing after just a few bad outings it seems. Whereas others have been flat out terrible for weeks and keep their spots on the roster.

 

How badly do you need to pitch to get sent packing on this team? it's almost comical at this point.

 

Wang may not be great, Blazek could still be terrible. But they deserve the shot at this point. The guys we have have gotten several chances and continue to be very, very poor major league pitchers. What are we waiting for??

[KeithStone53151]

I just don't get why they've given Peralta, Drake and to some extent Torres such long leashes. Some guys (Marinez, Milone) were essentially sent packing after just a few bad outings it seems. Whereas others have been flat out terrible for weeks and keep their spots on the roster.

 

How badly do you need to pitch to get sent packing on this team? it's almost comical at this point.

 

Wang may not be great, Blazek could still be terrible. But they deserve the shot at this point. The guys we have have gotten several chances and continue to be very, very poor major league pitchers. What are we waiting for??

 

Torres probably deserves a bit longer a leash than Drake does and Milone/Marinez. He was very good for us last year and has had good stretches this year. Milone and Marinez were never good this year. They also surely will give the guys with better stuff more leash. Hence why Peralta has hung around so long, though he should be gone 3 weeks ago in my opinion.

 

A lot of the issue with Barnes, Torres, Drake, etc is likely fatigue. They've been used quite a bit this year. I think Counsell has done fairly well trying to rest guys wherever possible. We definitely haven't been doing as much rotating of tired arms down to AAA over the last month or so as we had early on. If I were making the calls, Wang would take Peralta's spot immediately and Suter would rotate in with Espino in the 8th bullpen spot as needed to help keep the bullpen fresh. I'd give Torres until after the all star break to figure it out, Drake too unless they make a trade before then.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

That's correct. The question is, do the Brewers think there's anything to unlock by having Peralta pitch in AAA? While it seems kind of silly to pay his contract to play for a different organization, they are paying it either way and there's an opportunity cost of having Peralta take up a AAA roster spot that could go to someone who might have a better shot at being a long term piece of the Brewers' staff.

 

Whatever they end up doing, I think we'll find out shortly.

 

Considering they have Dillard still on the AAA roster, I dont think Peralta would be taking anyone's spot. Heck, I'd rather have Peralta over Goforth or Kohlscheen.

 

I hope this is what they do because I cannot watch Peralta pitch right now.

[LouisEly]

Why would anyone give up anything for Peralta when he's done nothing in his 4+ year career? It's not like you can hope he returns to form. He doesn't have a form to return to.

Jake Arrieta had done nothing in his 3.5 year career, and had a 7.23 ERA and had a walk rate of 6.5, when the Cubs took him in trade for Feldman at the age of 27.

 

I don't think the Cubs regret asking for him in a trade instead of waiting for him to be released.

 

Not saying the same thing will happen with Peralta, but there are lots of similarities between him and Arrieta through age 27.

[jerichoholicninja]

Why would anyone give up anything for Peralta when he's done nothing in his 4+ year career? It's not like you can hope he returns to form. He doesn't have a form to return to.

Jake Arrieta had done nothing in his 3.5 year career, and had a 7.23 ERA and had a walk rate of 6.5, when the Cubs took him in trade for Feldman at the age of 27.

 

I don't think the Cubs regret asking for him in a trade instead of waiting for him to be released.

 

Not saying the same thing will happen with Peralta, but there are lots of similarities between him and Arrieta through age 27.

 

I believe the Orioles also took away Arrieta's best pitch and the Cubs let him throw it again. I just don't see anything about Peralta that makes me think "if he could just put it together, he'd be really good."

[monty57]

Torres probably deserves a bit longer a leash than Drake does and Milone/Marinez. He was very good for us last year and has had good stretches this year. Milone and Marinez were never good this year. They also surely will give the guys with better stuff more leash. Hence why Peralta has hung around so long, though he should be gone 3 weeks ago in my opinion.

 

A lot of the issue with Barnes, Torres, Drake, etc is likely fatigue. They've been used quite a bit this year. I think Counsell has done fairly well trying to rest guys wherever possible. We definitely haven't been doing as much rotating of tired arms down to AAA over the last month or so as we had early on. If I were making the calls, Wang would take Peralta's spot immediately and Suter would rotate in with Espino in the 8th bullpen spot as needed to help keep the bullpen fresh. I'd give Torres until after the all star break to figure it out, Drake too unless they make a trade before then.

 

They need to have guys with options in the 'pen in order to shuffle them back and forth to the minors. The guys we have with options are the guys we don't want to send to the minors.

[KeithStone53151]

Torres probably deserves a bit longer a leash than Drake does and Milone/Marinez. He was very good for us last year and has had good stretches this year. Milone and Marinez were never good this year. They also surely will give the guys with better stuff more leash. Hence why Peralta has hung around so long, though he should be gone 3 weeks ago in my opinion.

 

A lot of the issue with Barnes, Torres, Drake, etc is likely fatigue. They've been used quite a bit this year. I think Counsell has done fairly well trying to rest guys wherever possible. We definitely haven't been doing as much rotating of tired arms down to AAA over the last month or so as we had early on. If I were making the calls, Wang would take Peralta's spot immediately and Suter would rotate in with Espino in the 8th bullpen spot as needed to help keep the bullpen fresh. I'd give Torres until after the all star break to figure it out, Drake too unless they make a trade before then.

 

They need to have guys with options in the 'pen in order to shuffle them back and forth to the minors. The guys we have with options are the guys we don't want to send to the minors.

 

I believe we have knebel, barnes, espino, and hader with options in the pen. The only one I'm unsure on is barnes. Obviously knebel is staying put, ideally hader stays up as well. I have no problem optioning either of the other 2 if they are worn out and cycling in suter/scahill/cravy when he's healthy. We could also cut peralta for wang(another guy who would have options) and DFA drake if needed to freshen up the bullpen. Sure we might lose drake, but i kinda doubt it, and if we did it wouldn't be a major loss. Point being, there are options to keep the bullpen more fresh/prepared than it is currently and we haven't been doing that as much lately.

 

A lot of key guys have gotten some days off recently thanks to Jimmy Nelson and a couple lopsided losses...hopefully that helps get barnes/drake back on track. Torres had the best outing he's had in a while yesterday after a couple days off in a row.

[monty57]

I agree that some more non-option guys could go, making room for more guys with options, and therefore a more flexible roster. I like that idea, but I think part of the reason changes in the 'pen have been slower than some would like is that our pen was filled with guys who were out of options and Stearns wanted to give them a shot at redemption before cutting ties. Now we're at the point where cutting some ties makes sense.