2017 bullpen

[dacbrewers]

next up...Hader.

[danzig6767]

Poor CC trying to manage this bullpen. These guys are so inconsistent.

 

Feliz struck out the side in a clean inning and Barnes didn't get an out.

Barnes had some back luck today.

 

First batter, seeing eye grounder to the right of Arcia

 

Next batter hits a grounder right to Arcia for a super easy double play, but the guy on first was running so it took Arcia slightly out of position.

 

Next batter hits a weak grounder up the middle, but the infield is in so instead of a double play, it's a hit.

 

On the flip side, the inning before Bandy hits a bullet with Aguliar on third, but Nunez leaps to save the game.

 

No question that the bullpen has sucked, but today Barnes easily could have had a 1-2-3 inning. They weren't hitting lasers of him, far from it.

[dacbrewers]

On the flip side, Scahill saved barnes another 2 runs.

[Baldkin]

next up...Hader.

 

Not happening.

 

http://m.gazette.com/sky-sox-explain-strategy-behind-prospect-josh-haders-abbreviated-starts/article/1604622

 

Hader threw 126 innings last year. The Brewers as a general rule don’t like to increase by more than 15 percent more innings in one year, which means Hader won't venture much past 140 innings this season. With Hader at 50 innings after two months, his schedule had to be tweaked if he’s going to available by the end of a six-month campaign. The Colorado Springs Sky Sox season ends after five months, but Milwaukee’s continues that extra month.

[dacbrewers]

next up...Hader.

 

Not happening.

 

http://m.gazette.com/sky-sox-explain-strategy-behind-prospect-josh-haders-abbreviated-starts/article/1604622

 

Hader threw 126 innings last year. The Brewers as a general rule don’t like to increase by more than 15 percent more innings in one year, which means Hader won't venture much past 140 innings this season. With Hader at 50 innings after two months, his schedule had to be tweaked if he’s going to available by the end of a six-month campaign. The Colorado Springs Sky Sox season ends after five months, but Milwaukee’s continues that extra month.

 

Was it the sky sox or Stearns explaining it?

[SomewhereInTime]

So we're going to have a problem on our hands soon, especially if Stearns continues to stick with the current group of relievers. We've got two relievers in Barnes and Knebel that are on pace for around 80+ innings this season (Torres is too but that doesn't really matter as I don't think there's any way he's part of future plans). When exactly will the shutdown date be for these two? You can say that we'll probably not need them much if we fall out of it but I don't know if that's really going to happen any time soon with the softer schedule coming up. We just can't really afford to stick with all these ineffective relievers in our pen. Even if the game isn't blown you get what happened two days ago, five run lead in the 9th and you have to pull Torres and use Knebel.

 

Part of why having starters pitch shorter outings can be effective is using the bullpen effectively, but with this bullpen we struggle to find anyone who can cover multiple innings and this leads to games like today where nearly the whole pen has to pitch. A pitcher like Feliz who is basically your 7th or 8th man in the pen absolutely needs to be replaced by someone who can go multiple innings. Same goes for Hughes or Drake. Torres could use a break given his heavy workload last year and this year and will soon be on the DL at the rate he's going. Even Barnes should probably be sent down soon, not to pitch but to limit innings.

 

The point is I'm not kidding when I say we need five new arms in our pen. It is becoming a necessity, not to compete, but to survive the season.

[FVBrewerFan]

I swear everyone forgets the season is 6 very long months. What looks horrific today could be our strength in the 2nd half. And vice versa. This rotation will not be 6th best at the end of the year. Bullpen, even if they had the exact same guts, will be better. A hitter will tank, another will get hot.

 

That's baseball. And it hurts to see a stretch when one facet of the team isn't clicking. But history tells us all these guys can pitch better than they have. Some will. Some wit and they will be replaced.

 

Breathe. Espino is not an answer. Hader will not be an answer. Moves will be made, if you haven't been paying attention Stearns hasn't exactly been shy about making moves.

[monty57]

Knebel, Barnes, and Torres are tied for the league lead in games. These guys are going to be worn out if this continues. maybe a Wilkerson callup could be used to pitch multiple innings so we dont have to call on these guys so oftern

 

That is worrisome. A couple of factors which I believe have not been mentioned:

 

1) Due to a rough early schedule with few days off, combined with playing our home games in a dome, we have played a lot of games. A handful of (mostly warm-weather) teams have played over 60 games. Most teams are in the 57-60 range.

 

2) We have had a lot of extra-inning games. What are we at, 7 or 8? That adds a lot of extra innings to the 'pen.

 

And, of course the big reason is that many of our guys have been unreliable, and when you are winning more than you're losing you want to put out your reliable guys when you're ahead.

 

Some of these guys could turn things around, so I can understand why they've kept them, but I have to believe that we will be seeing some moves before too long. We'll really be in a bad spot if any of our reliable guys start getting "arm fatigue."

[Humans Need Water]

I guess I see things from a different perspective. That being all these guys are human and will have bad outings, especially since none of them are elite or expected to be elite (Chapman's and Miller's of the world). Therefore everyone should be judged not only on their entire body of work statistically, given a few bad outings can destroy one's overall numbers, combined with their track record, watching them live, the stuff they possess and their makeup.

 

Knebel has been excellent and Barnes has been very solid as well. Easily the two best arms in pen. And far too many people wanted Barnes to start in AAA due to his spring but given his stuff/makeup you don't put that in AAA because of some rough spring outings. Which is exactly why you don't just cut bait with Feliz, Torres, Hughes.

 

Feliz has 27 outings on the season throwing 26 innings. He's given up multiple earned runs in 3 outings posting 2.1ip, 7h, 8er, 2bb, 2k, 30.90 ERA, 3.86 WHIP. The other 24 outings (91% of innings pitched) he's posted 23.2ip, 13h, 7er, 11bb, 18k, 2.66 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.94 H9, 4.18 BB9, 6.84 K9. He's given up all 7er in 7 different outings. He's been more inconsistent than the numbers suggest in the 91% of his innings this year but you also can't argue with that production. His BB rate is far too high and he's given up a lot of HR this year too, much higher than his norm, so history says it'll come back down. Plus he almost always starts innings too so it's not as if he's letting inherited runners score.

 

Torres, like Feliz, has given up multiple earned runs in 3 outings posting 3ip, 10h, 9er, 3bb, 3k, 27.00 ERA, 4.33 WHIP. The other 28 outings (91% of innings pitched) he's posted 29ip, 29h, 6er, 10bb, 22k, 1.86 ERA, 1.34 WHIP. Again, same with Feliz, he's been more inconsistent than these numbers suggest but he's also been pretty effective the vast majority of the time.

 

Hughes, again, has had 3 outings giving up multiple earned runs posting 2.1ip, 10h, 8er, 2bb, 2k and his other 21 outings (90% of innings pitched) he's posted 20.1ip, 15h, 3er, 8bb, 13k, 1.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. He falls in the same boat as Torres since they tend to enter games with runners on base. I'm not going to dig up all those different situations but if they're entering with a runner on 3b and less than 2 outs it's a coin flip if that person scores and that goes for most teams. They're entering games in tough situations.

 

I think these 5 guys absolutely need to be in the pen. These guys have shown the stuff to be effective and while they all walk far too many batters they've also been pretty effective the vast majority of the time. The only person in the minors who can come up and be better than these 5 is Hader, but he's a starter (he'll be up in the pen in Sept anyway).

 

Guys like Scahill and Drake can be swapped in and out at any time. I'd have no issue with Cravy (who I don't care for), Wang or Suter being up replacing either of them. However, Wang is spending his first year in the pen right now so I understand if they don't think he's ready to come up. Suter and Cravy obviously already have time in MLB and can seamlessly transition. Blazek has been starting recently so no idea what they're doing with him unless they're just stretching him out to eventually replace someone in the pen as the multi-inning guy. Peralta I'm intrigued by in the pen but want to see him used in the 6th/7th inning in one inning stints unless there's an extra inning game then he can grab you 3 innings potentially. Jungmann needs a change of scenery. Lopez I'd like to see in a pen role but he's been getting hit in AA more recently. Archer isn't an option either. He's always been 1-2yrs old for level and hasn't dominated. Great at pounding the zone and making batters earn it but overall his skill set doesn't bode well moving forward at the MLB level.

 

The Brewers just don't have legitimate pen options in AAA other than Cravy, Wang, Blazek, Suter and none of them are guys you're super excited about. I think Wang can have a solid career in the pen but think he needs to spend the entire year there. Cravy will be just ok but most likely better than Scahill/Drake. Suter is a coin flip and Blazek has had some success already. Espino isn't a pen arm. He's, at best, what he is right now. AAA rotation arm who can spot start 2-3x annually if needed where you pray for a decent outing. I had 2 MLB scouts sit behind me during a spring game this past March and they didn't know who Espino was so they brought out the guns and opened their notebooks. 4 pitches in they put the guns and notebooks away.

 

People need to take the overall Loss number for the pen as a grain of salt. If the game is tied or we're up by 1 with 4 innings of pen work ahead chances are strong to quite strong that the pen gets the L if the Brewers don't win not to mention only the Reds have thrown more innings out of the pen in MLB than the Brewers. More opportunities to do anything good or bad will yield those results. The NL average is 201ip in the pen this year and the Brewers are at 223. The NL avg ERA is 4.04 and the Brewers is 4.16 (we were an even 4.00 prior to yesterdays game). I don't think the pen is as bad as everyone is making it seem.

[djoctagone]

I'm done with our current back-end relievers. time to give an extended look at the next round of guys. has a team ever dropped 3-5 guys and brought up 3-5 new guys from AAA all at once?

you're describing transactions within the organization, so we won't bring free agent signings, trades and waiver claims into the equation.

 

the aaa team has to maintain a full roster themselves. when a player is optioned or recalled, he is typically able to report to his new team in 24 hours (and usually less).

 

when a player is designated for assignment, the mlb team has up to seven days (used to be ten days) to decide whether to trade, release or attempt to outright that player to the minor leagues. outrighting is usually the hopeful outcome for management, because the player remains in the organization. but, it's important to note that said player remains in limbo for up to seven days--which may mean that management has to find ways to plug the roster holes internally at the minor league level(s) as they wait to see if they will be able to successfully outright that player to their minor leagues.

 

the brewers have very few relievers that they can option right now--and they're not the ones struggling. thus, i don't predict a mass exodus via dfa and a mass recall/promotion from the minor leagues--unless the brewers have some immediate means of player replacement at the minor league level (players ready to return from the minor league disabled list, minor league free agents willing to sign, depth on the taxi squad, off day or postponed game, etc.).

[topper09er]

Feliz has 27 outings on the season throwing 26 innings. He's given up multiple earned runs in 3 outings posting 2.1ip, 7h, 8er, 2bb, 2k, 30.90 ERA, 3.86 WHIP. The other 24 outings (91% of innings pitched) he's posted 23.2ip, 13h, 7er, 11bb, 18k, 2.66 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.94 H9, 4.18 BB9, 6.84 K9.

 

Torres, like Feliz, has given up multiple earned runs in 3 outings posting 3ip, 10h, 9er, 3bb, 3k, 27.00 ERA, 4.33 WHIP. The other 28 outings (91% of innings pitched) he's posted 29ip, 29h, 6er, 10bb, 22k, 1.86 ERA, 1.34 WHIP.

 

Hughes, again, has had 3 outings giving up multiple earned runs posting 2.1ip, 10h, 8er, 2bb, 2k and his other 21 outings (90% of innings pitched) he's posted 20.1ip, 15h, 3er, 8bb, 13k, 1.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP.

 

This is very misleading, sure Feliz's number look good when you remove all his bad outing, but you cant compare these numbers to the usual league average where a 2.66 ERA looks "pretty good". If you remove every relievers 3 worst outing Feliz is still bad in comparison. Same with the others

[LouisEly]

Jared Hughes to the rescue. He has looked really good the last few times out. People are quick to forget he was really good for multiple years prior to 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if he figured it out and he will become another dependable guy in the pen. Tyler Cravy should get a call soon. He did pretty well last year in his relief stint.

There's a reason why PIT let him go though. He had some nice ERAs, but his xFIP tells a different story - 4.10 for his career. Last year 4.77. Even in his great ERA years of 2014-2015 his xFIP was 3.79-4.10.

 

He has looked good in a recent small sample, but his career K/9 is 5.5; he just never was as great of a pitcher as a couple of years of good ERAs suggested.

[Oxy]

Feliz has 27 outings on the season throwing 26 innings. He's given up multiple earned runs in 3 outings posting 2.1ip, 7h, 8er, 2bb, 2k, 30.90 ERA, 3.86 WHIP. The other 24 outings (91% of innings pitched) he's posted 23.2ip, 13h, 7er, 11bb, 18k, 2.66 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.94 H9, 4.18 BB9, 6.84 K9.

 

Torres, like Feliz, has given up multiple earned runs in 3 outings posting 3ip, 10h, 9er, 3bb, 3k, 27.00 ERA, 4.33 WHIP. The other 28 outings (91% of innings pitched) he's posted 29ip, 29h, 6er, 10bb, 22k, 1.86 ERA, 1.34 WHIP.

 

Hughes, again, has had 3 outings giving up multiple earned runs posting 2.1ip, 10h, 8er, 2bb, 2k and his other 21 outings (90% of innings pitched) he's posted 20.1ip, 15h, 3er, 8bb, 13k, 1.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP.

 

This is very misleading, sure Feliz's number look good when you remove all his bad outing, but you cant compare these numbers to the usual league average where a 2.66 ERA looks "pretty good". If you remove every relievers 3 worst outing Feliz is still bad in comparison. Same with the others

 

 

That's true--but the point is that it is still very early with such small sample sizes. The percentage of clean outings is more important than overall stats (i.e. if you have a bad day and give up 5 or 6 runs, the team still only gets 1 loss).

 

As everybody knows, bullpens are very fickle. It gets very frustrating, but it is very difficult to predict with any kind of certainty who is going to turn it on and be lights out (Jeffress/KRod/Axford/Turnbow) and who is going to flame out (Jeffress/KRod/Axford/Turnbow)

[Outlander]

Even if Villar doesn't go on the DL one of these 9 guys needs to go because Villar still won't likely play. Dealing with a 3 man bench for a couple of days is asking too much and puts the team in a bad spot.

[superfly]

Jared Hughes to the rescue. He has looked really good the last few times out. People are quick to forget he was really good for multiple years prior to 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if he figured it out and he will become another dependable guy in the pen. Tyler Cravy should get a call soon. He did pretty well last year in his relief stint.

There's a reason why PIT let him go though. He had some nice ERAs, but his xFIP tells a different story - 4.10 for his career. Last year 4.77. Even in his great ERA years of 2014-2015 his xFIP was 3.79-4.10.

 

He has looked good in a recent small sample, but his career K/9 is 5.5; he just never was as great of a pitcher as a couple of years of good ERAs suggested.

 

 

Perhaps xFIP is not reliable for some pitchers. Every year he has put in a full season (not 20 innings) the end result has been very good.

[Ennder]

It is a tough call on Hughes because 333 IP still isn't a very meaningful sample size. ERA is just a wildly unreliable stat year to year which is why the various predictors exist. I'm guessing he is a 4 ERA guy given our defense and the park he is in now not suppressing HR as much. Just a filler guy.

[pacopete4]

Maybe Stearns needs to take a step back from assessing bullpen guys and let someone else do it. These guys suck.

[pacopete4]

Cravy and Wang should be on the first flights to STL.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cravy and Wang should be on the first flights to STL.

 

Maybe Archer too.

[pacopete4]

Okay so Cravy is hurt. Archer and Wang come on up. Suter can stay too for all I care. All I know is this seasons bullpen is strike one for me with Stearns.

[JohnBriggs12]

Maybe give a guy like Aaron Wilkerson a shot. Barbosa? All I know is over half the pen isn't getting the job done and there's only so much Hader can do. Counsell's "I gotta keep putting these guys out there for them to get out of their slump" defies reason. Spoken like a guy who kept getting AB' s when he,went through an 0 for 47 slump late in his career

[superfly]

This is disgusting.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

DFA Wily Peralta, tell Feliz he is going on the DL, and send Scahill to AAA. Bring up Wang, Wilkerson and Woodruff to start Tuesday. The bullpen is atrocious and so is Broxton.

[brwrsfan]

Okay so Cravy is hurt. Archer and Wang come on up. Suter can stay too for all I care. All I know is this seasons bullpen is strike one for me with Stearns.

 

I don't have an issue how he put it together. Often times bullpens are built by just throwing things at the wall and hoping for the best.

 

What I do have a major issue with however, is not making changes when the guys you have are terrible. The leash has been WAY too long with these guys. We took some guys off the scrap heap, it didn't work. Cut your losses and try something else. We have at least 4-5 guys in the minors that can be called up. They'd have to be really really bad to do much worse than what we have.

[LouisEly]

I have a feeling someone falls on the sword tomorrow, likely Torres. Too much sunk cost in Feliz, too much potential in Peralta. One of Wang or Wilkerson added; not sure they want to burn an option year for Woodruff for one start when they don't have to add him. Maybe if Garza/Guerra is traded and they have a permanent spot open, but not for one start.

 

Pretty solid guess that Suter is added as the extra guy for the DH. Perhaps they keep Torres for mop-up duty in the DH, and then DFA him and keep Suter up.

 

Wonder if there's a "change of scenery" swap out there for Peralta. Maybe bring back Jeffress, as he is scuffling in Texas. Actually, that might make a pretty darned good and even swap, give or take a bag of balls or two. Rangers have used nine different starting pitchers; they try to resurrect Wily as a starter and the Brewers try to resurrect Jeffress as a reliever.